514
FXUS64 KMRX 292338
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
638 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

- Well below normal temperatures for the next 36 hours.

- Wind chills near zero across the higher elevations of the east TN
mountains tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Moderating temperatures through the end of the week.

- Next round of precip by Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Based on observational trends, will go ahead and clear some areas
from the Wind Advisory early. Will go ahead and remove the central
east TN valley and Cumberland Plateau. Will keep northeast TN,
southwest VA, and the east TN mountains going through the original
expiration times of 4 PM and 7 PM.

Though the cold front has passed, breezy conditions will remain
through the night as the pressure gradient remains tight. However,
the strongest winds should subside by this evening. Overnight lows
will be around 10 degrees below normal with temps in the mid to
upper teens across northern areas and lower 20s from Knoxville and
southward. With some winds remaining through the night, wind chills
will be in the teens for most valley locations and near 0 across the
east TN mountains.

Below normal temps continue on Tuesday with highs in the mid to
upper 30s for most areas, but with plenty of sunshine! Winds will
still be a little breezy tomorrow with gusts from 15 to 20 mph. On
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, portions of southwest VA
could see some light snow showers. Little to no accumulation is
expected at this time.

We then slowly moderate in temperatures through the end of the week
with highs back in the mid 50s by Friday. Friday is also when our
next chance of precip arrives, as a shortwave moves across the area.
Models in fair agreement on timing with precip moving in Friday
evening and gone by Saturday afternoon. Warmer and drier conditions
then continue into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

VFR conditions will continue at TYS and CHA. MVFR CIGs will
move in over the next few hours at TRI but will likely improve to
VFR by sunrise. Winds are already starting to subside across the
region but TRI will continue to have some low end gusts up to 20
knots this evening and tomorrow during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 40 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 37 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 21 37 22 47 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 33 21 41 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

229
FXUS64 KMRX 301130
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
630 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

- Cold and dry today. Low afternoon relative humidity values today
and Wednesday.

- Wind chills near zero across the higher elevations of the east TN
mountains this morning. Wind chills in the teens for the Tennessee
Valley this morning.

- Moderating temperatures through the end of the week.

- Next round of precip by Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 558 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Reports of light coating of snow across area roadways across
southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Light snow showers or
flurries will continue until mid-morning. Shallow moisture at
850mb combined with cold air squeezing out light snow. Have issued
a SPS for potential slippery conditions during the morning rush
hour.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Currently, clouds have spread across much of the region with a few
light flurries across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee.
REFS/HREF show the clouds eroding quickly by mid to late morning.
Main concern today and Wednesday will be the low dewpoints and
afternoon relative humidity values.

In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the
surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Plains. Temps will
be cold this morning with lows in the 20s in the Tennessee Valley
and in the teens in the higher elevations. Winds are much lighter
than earlier today but will be steady enough to bring wind chills in
the teens this morning for the Tennessee Valley and single digits or
near zero in the higher elevations. Temps will be below normal today
with highs in the 30s in the Tennessee Valley. A warming trend will
begin Wednesday with highs getting back into the 40s. By Friday,
highs will be back in the 50s for the Tennessee Valley.

Dry weather will continue through Friday morning with the exception
of some light, brief snow possible in Southwest Virginia Wednesday
night as a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley. Little to no
accumulation is expected in our Virginia counties since they are on
the edge of this system. Snow chances are much better in West
Virginia.

By Friday, upper level flow becomes more zonal. At the surface, a
low moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast
Friday night. The warm front will likely be near or just south of
the region. It looks like temps will remain warm enough even Friday
night for an all rain event. The best chance for a soaking rain will
be along and south of I-40. This looks like a fast moving system
and the highest rain chances are Friday evening and overnight.

The weekend looks mostly dry and mild with rain chances trending
down Saturday morning. Highs will be in the 50s for the Tennessee
Valley this weekend which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

A relatively shallow MVFR ceiling around 3kft is across the TAF
sites. TRI has the deepest layer around 850mb which is producing
some light snow showers or flurries. REFS/HREF and deterministic
models show the shallow moisture eroding by mid to late morning
with the help of downslope northwest winds into the valley. This
will allow flight conditons to become VFR this morning.

For late today mid and high level clouds will move into the
region. Winds will remain west to northwest at 5 to 15 knots most
of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 24 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 23 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 37 23 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 20 41 29 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

649
FXUS64 KMRX 282312 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
612 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Very warm this afternoon with possible record highs being
broken again.

- Showers and a strong cold front cross the area tonight and
early Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds expected area-wide this afternoon through
Monday, especially across the higher elevations tonight. Either
Wind Advisories or a Special Weather Statement is in effect.

- Much colder air moves in behind the front. Wind chills near zero
are expected across the higher elevations Monday night, and
highs in the 30s on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

One more day of well above average temperatures before a big
pattern change beginning tonight. Low 70s are currently being
reported across parts of the valley this afternoon already. Will
include climate stats below.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:
Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)

Southerly to southwesterly winds are also occurring. Expect these
to increase throughout the day and overnight tonight. A low center
currently over Iowa and Illinois, will deepen through the day as
it tracks towards the Great Lakes. A cold front will then develop
and trail it to the southwest. Damming to the east under high
pressure will kick-start the winds over the Southern Appalachians
likely earlier than anywhere else because of increasing pressure
gradient. This will not be a true mountain wave set-up for the
Southern Appalachians given the flow direction with the frontal
passage, but there will still be gusts to near 50 mph, as
indicated by the Wind Advisory in place there. Wind Advisories
were also added for the plateau and southwest Virginia counties.
Upon looking at the latest guidance from HREF, RRFS, and others,
winds appear they will generally remain below advisory level for
the rest of the forecast area - valley and SW NC. A Special
Weather Statement through Monday morning was issued there
mentioning gusts up to 35 mph, with possible pockets of near 40
mph. After 7 am or so, winds will slowly decrease from west to
east, but will hang on for the most part for the eastern higher
terrain. The primary direction following the front will be from
the west.

The warmest temperatures tomorrow will likely occur near midnight
for the forecast area, as the front makes its mark during the
overnight hours. A line of showers will accompany the front, but
the most we can expect are gusts translated down to the surface
from aloft with any gusty showers. The strongest of any storms or
severe weather threat, will remain close to the low's center south
of Michigan. It appears any influence of return-
flow/northwesterly flow behind the low will remain to our north.

With lows in the 20s and teens for the higher terrain forecast
Tuesday morning and some winds persisting for the higher terrain
as well, wind chills near 0 will be possible.

Weather turns dry later tomorrow through Wednesday. High temperatures
will rebound 10 degrees or so from Tuesday into Wednesday. A
weak system will approach from the north Thursday into Friday,
bringing a chance of light precipitation, with best chances across
the northern part of the forecast area. By next weekend,
precipitation chances increase from the south as the front stalls
to our south. Where this sets up may determine how much
precipitation we see. The southern valley and SW NC could sure
use some beneficial rain to remove some of the moderate drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

A cold front with a line of showers is expected to cross the area
overnight, mainly between 07-10Z. Ahead of the front, surface SW
winds will continue to be gusty, mainly 20-30 kt. With the passage
of the front, some showers may lowe vis/cigs to MVFR at times, and
winds will shift to the W and gust 25-35 kt. Rapid clearing will
follow the front, with all sites going SKC or SCT around 13-16Z.
Gusty west winds will continue through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 49 24 41 / 90 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 46 22 37 / 90 20 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 39 44 22 37 / 100 20 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 48 20 33 / 80 30 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for Anderson-
Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne-Marion-Morgan-Scott TN-
Sequatchie.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

304
FXUS64 KMRX 291130
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
630 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

- Showers and a strong cold front crossing the area tonight through
early Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds continue across the region overnight across the
valley and into the afternoon in the higher elevations.

- Much colder air moves in behind the front. Wind chills near zero
are expected across the higher elevations Monday night, and
highs in the 30s on Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 215 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Extended the wind advisory to northeast Tennessee and central
Tennessee valley and extended until 4 pm. Given the latest
observations and REFS showing winds remaining windy through much
of the day decided to make the changes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Currently a strong cold front charging through the region brining
with it a quick round of showers and enhanced wind gusts right along
the front edge. Winds have already been gusty this evening and while
this line of showers is expected to weaken as it moves through
Middle Tennessee it still could cause some enhancement of the lower atmospheric winds diving towards the surface. There is no lightning
in this line, but we could definitely see some additional outdoor
furniture blown around. QPF amounts still are expected to be light
with the line also expected to waken

Still have a Wind Advisory in effect overnight for the
Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the eastern Tennessee mountains
with the common denominator being these counties have some of the
higher elevation in the region and are reporting the highest wind
gusts. All surface observations are indicating that the Wind
Advisory is working out well, with no current plans to upgrade to a
High Wind Warning.

Breezy conditions will continue even after sunrise with gusts slowly
starting to come down throughout the day. Expect winds to back off
below advisory criteria in the plateau and southwest Virginia in the
late morning hours, but continue in the eastern Tennessee Mountains
until closer to sunset.

Also of note will be the much colder temperatures behind the front,
with lows in the morning likely dropping into the 30's, and below
freezing at elevations above 2,000 feet. Coldest temperatures of the
week continue for a few days as chilly air funnels in from the
north/northwest through the middle of the week. With lows in the 20s
and teens for the higher terrain forecast and some winds persisting
for the higher terrain as well, wind chills near 0 will be possible.

High temperatures will rebound 10 degrees or so from Tuesday into
Wednesday. A weak system will approach from the north Thursday into
Friday, bringing a chance of light precipitation, with best chances
across the northern part of the forecast area. By next weekend,
precipitation chances increase from the south as the front stalls to
our south. Where this sets up may determine how much precipitation
we see. The southern valley and SW NC could sure use some beneficial
rain to remove some of the moderate drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

A band of showers moving across the TAF sites will end by around
14Z. VFR to marginal MVFR will improve to all VFR by mid-morning
with drier air clearing the sky cover today. Main concern will
remain windy conditions especially at TRI and TYS. west to
northwest of 15 to 25kts with gusts near 30kts.

Winds will subside by late afternoon and early evening. REFS shows
broken ceiling around 4kft at TRI again by around 00z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 24 40 24 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 22 37 23 / 50 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 42 22 37 22 / 50 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 19 33 20 / 60 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-
Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-Morgan-North
Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-
Washington TN.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Lee-Russell-
Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

298
FXUS64 KMRX 271116
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
616 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather today and Sunday with near record
temperatures possible at Chattanooga.

- Widespread rain will accompany a strong cold front late Sunday
night and Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds expected area-wide Sunday night and Monday
especially across the higher elevations.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians
early next week. Wind chills near zero are expected across the
higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Currently, weak isentropic lift is producing isolated sprinkles or
light showers across east Kentucky and southwest Virginia. This
activity will diminish by daybreak. REFS shows some higher
probabilities of fog mainly across the Plateau, western sections
of the Tennessee valley and higher elevations.

Main weather story will remain broad upper ridge across the southern
half of the United States with anomaly high heights producing
unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs and Lows around 20-25 degrees
above normal.

For today, HREF and deterministic show a drier airmass moving
northwest from the Carolinas into the region allowing for more
sunshine. The increase in daytime heating will allow for warmer
temperatures with highs in the 70s most locations. Near record highs
are expected at Chattanooga.

For tonight, boundary layer moisture returns with sky cover becoming
mostly cloudy but remaining dry.

For Sunday, increasing isentropic lift and deeper moisture return
may produce widely scattered showers. A digging upper trough over
the mid-section of the nation will begin to tighten the pressure
gradients across the Tennessee valley with brisk southwest winds of
10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible.

For Sunday night and Monday, an upper trough will dig into the
eastern United States with a strong 300mb jet of 150-155 kts over
the Ohio valley and central Appalachians. The jet dynamics will
produce a good deal of jet dynamics and frontogenetic forcing as the
strong front quickly crosses the area from 3 am to 7 am Monday.

Widespread rain showers will accompany the frontal passage followed
by strong cold advection through the day that will lead to falling temperatures during the daylight hours. Due to timing of the front
made some modifications to NBM temperature curve lowering quickly
into the 30s and 40s.

LREF shows most locations only receiving 0.20 inch of precipitation
during the event.

Also, strong gradient winds will enhance the winds area-wide but
especially for the higher elevations. A wind advisory may be need
for the higher elevations ahead and and near the time of the frontal
passage. However, LREF shows winds elsewhere likely gusting over 30-
35 mph during the frontal passage.

Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday
night with single digits and teens in the valley. A cold airmass
will settle into the region for Tuesday with highs only in the 30s.
A slow moderation of temperatures will occur Wednesday and Thursday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
12-26 75(2021) 74(2015) 73(2015) 74(2015)
12-27 76(2015) 77(2015) 77(2015) 76(2015)
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Still some MVFR cigs around early, but will trend to VFR
conditions for the bulk of the period all sites. Winds will
generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 61 74 44 / 0 10 10 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 56 73 42 / 0 10 20 80
Oak Ridge, TN 71 56 71 40 / 0 0 20 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 48 67 43 / 0 0 10 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

662
FXUS64 KMRX 272340
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
640 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Unseasonably warm weather today and Sunday with record high
temperatures possible at Chattanooga.

- Showers and a strong cold front cross the area Sunday night and
early Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds expected area-wide Sunday afternoon through
Monday, especially across the higher elevations Sunday night.

- Much colder air moves in behind the front. Wind chills near zero
are expected across the higher elevations Monday night, and highs in
the 30s on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Aloft, a large high pressure ridge is located over FL and the
eastern Gulf region today, providing midlevel subsidence over the
Southeast. In the low levels, a surface high over NY/PA is building
southward, bringing low level drying to the southern Appalachians
and East TN. Morning clouds and fog have mostly lifted, leaving
mostly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures that will peak in the
70s for most locations. Near record highs are expected at
Chattanooga. Tonight, we should see some increasing boundary layer
moisture and isentropic lift, with sky cover becoming mostly cloudy
but remaining too shallow for any precip.

On Sunday, a digging upper trough and surface cold front over the
northern and central MS Valley will begin to tighten the pressure
gradients across the Tennessee Valley, with southwest winds of 10 to
20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Warm temperatures will continue in this
pattern, with Chattanooga likely to break the record high of 73,
especially if the expected morning cloud cover can adequately
lift/scatter.

On Sunday night and Monday, an upper trough will dig into the
eastern United States with a strong 300 mb jet over the Ohio valley
and central Appalachians. The jet dynamics will produce a good deal
of QG and frontogenetic forcing as the strong front quickly crosses
the area between 3 am to 7 am Monday. The main impacts will be the
strong gradient winds ahead of and along the frontal passage,
especially in the mountains where gusts near 50 mph will be
possible. It's not a mountain wave setup, given the SW direction, so
it looks more like a Wind Advisory scenario. Outside of the
mountains, gusts are likely to be in the 25-35 mph range.

Widespread rain showers will accompany the frontal passage followed
by strong cold advection through Monday, causing falling
temperatures during the daylight hours. There is not much of a
window for snowfall as dry air aloft quickly builds in to end any
precip chances before temperatures get cold enough. Can't rule out
some trace snow amounts in the higher elevations of the northern
Plateau, SW VA, and East TN mountains.

Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday
night with single digits and teens in the valley. A cold airmass
will settle into the region for Tuesday with highs only in the 30s.
A slow moderation of temperatures will occur Wednesday and Thursday,
but with temperatures remaining a few degrees below normal as a
longwave trough persists off the Atlantic coast.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 12-27 76(2015) 77(2015) 77(2015) 76(2015)
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

CIGs will lower to MVFR late tonight or early morning. VFR
conditions will return by late morning. Southwesterly winds will
increase tomorrow by late morning or early afternoon, especially
at TYS and CHA. Gusts up to 30 knots will be possible at TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 74 46 50 / 0 10 90 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 73 45 48 / 0 10 80 40
Oak Ridge, TN 57 71 42 46 / 0 10 90 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 69 47 50 / 0 10 70 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

773
FXUS64 KMRX 281133
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
633 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Another warm day Sunday with possible record highs being broken
again

- Showers and a strong cold front cross the area Sunday night and
early Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds expected area-wide Sunday afternoon through
Monday, especially across the higher elevations Sunday night.

- Much colder air moves in behind the front. Wind chills near zero
are expected across the higher elevations Monday night, and
highs in the 30s on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Currently temperatures are remaining warm for a late December
night with low level winds remaining out of the south/southwest helping to bring
up warm air from the Gulf. This will only strengthen as we head into
the daylight hours Sunday with an incoming strong cold front making
it's way towards our region. Ahead of the front (expected to move
through early Monday morning) the tightening pressure gradient will
help keep warm temperatures in the region Sunday along with gusty
winds area-wide Sunday into Monday. High temperatures Sunday are
expected to be near records with highs in the upper 60's to lower
70's. Most likely climate site to break the daily high temperature
record will once again be Chattanooga, who broke the December 27
record earlier this evening, with their 73 degree record high for
the 28th in jeopardy.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:
Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)

Besides the warm spell the other very noticeable weather impact will
be the gusty winds area-wide Sunday night and into Monday. Expect to
see winds ramping up between sunset and midnight Sunday night with
peak intensity coming during the overnight hours. Probabilistic
guidance is showing that most places in the central and southern
valley could see wind gusts in the 30-35mph range overnight, with
lower wind speeds expected in northeast TN and southwest VA. In the
higher elevations these winds will be even stronger with gusts over
40 mph looking to be common once you get above 2,500 feet in
elevation. With models in good agreement on the timing and in fairly
decent agreement on the strength of the gusts will issue a Wind
Advisory for the eastern Tennessee Mountains Sunday night into
Monday.

Once the front passes through the brief appearance of summer will
quickly end as winter asserts it's dominance again. Wind chills may
drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday night with
single digits and teens in the valley. A cold airmass will settle
into the region for Tuesday with highs only in the 30s.

Of lesser impacts will be the rain and possibly light snow along the
front with most places in the valley staying warm enough that
precipitation along the front should only produce a tenth to a
quarter inch of light rain Monday. In the higher elevations Monday
we could see some flurries, and possibly some accumulations in the
shaded areas, but these seems unlikely as the recent temperatures
would likely melt any snow on contact with the surface.

A slow moderation of temperatures will occur Wednesday and Thursday,
but with temperatures remaining a few degrees below normal as a
longwave trough persists off the Atlantic coast. Fairly quiet
weather accompanies this slow warm up with the next best chance for precipitation likely coming over the weekend with a possible
shortwave traversing through the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Some patches of MVFR cigs are still around, and may see at least
some brief MVFR conditions at the terminals early in the period
especially at CHA. Winds will become gusty from the south and
southwest this afternoon into tonight, especially at TYS. Showers
will move in late in the period with at least some brief MVFR
conditions along with an increase in the gusty winds, and CHA will
see a wind shift to NW near the end of the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 39 49 23 / 10 90 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 37 47 23 / 10 90 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 71 35 45 22 / 10 90 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 37 49 20 / 0 80 30 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

861
FXUS64 KMRX 261120
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
620 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather today through the weekend. Near
record temperatures possible in Chattanooga.

- Low rain chances today and tonight in northern sections, with better
chances Sunday night and Monday with a strong cold front.

- Strong gusty winds expected across higher elevations Sunday
night and Monday.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians early next week.&&

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025


Light showers are currently noted on radar just outside of our area
in southern WV and SW VA. These showers are associated with a back
door cold front and weak isentropic lift. Moisture is quite shallow
and remains so through today and tonight, so as the front remains
nearly stationary near our northern counties during that time, some
light on/off showers will be possible in parts of SW VA and NE TN.

A ridge will be building over the southern half of the United States
today and through the rest of the weekend. This ridge will produce
unusual warmth for late December with highs around 20 degrees above
normal. Near Record highs are possible across the Chattanooga area
Saturday and Sunday.

An upper trough will cross the Great Lakes early next week. A strong
300mb jet of 160-165 kts digs into the Ohio valley and central
Appalachians on the southern side of this trough, producing a good
deal of jet dynamics and frontogenetic forcing, producing a strong
cold front that crosses the area late Sunday night and Monday
morning. Precip in the form of rain showers will peak Monday morning
with the frontal passage, followed by strong cold advection through
the day that will lead to falling temperatures during the daylight
hours. Also, strong gradient winds will enhance the winds especially
for the higher elevations. A wind advisory may be need for the
higher elevations ahead and and near the time of the frontal passage.

Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday
night with single digits and teens in the valley. A cold airmass
will settle into the region for Tuesday with highs only in the 30s.
A slow moderation of temperatures will occur Wednesday and Thursday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
12-26 75(2021) 74(2015) 73(2015) 74(2015)
12-27 76(2015) 77(2015) 77(2015) 76(2015)
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Will mainly see a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions all sites during the
period, although the exact details are still low confidence.
Winds will increase from the southwest to around 10 kts with some
higher gusts especially TYS during the day before decreasing
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 59 75 60 / 10 10 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 59 72 57 / 20 20 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 68 57 71 56 / 20 10 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 55 67 50 / 40 50 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

344
FXUS64 KMRX 262358
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
658 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather through the weekend. Near record
temperatures possible in Chattanooga.

- Low rain chances today and tonight in northern sections, with better
chances Sunday night and Monday with a strong cold front.

- Strong gusty winds expected across higher elevations and
foothills Sunday night and Monday.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachians early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Guidance and most of the CAMs have widespread light showers in
East and Middle Tennessee but nothing has developed on radar so it
appears to be overdone. HRRR seems to be handling it best with
light showers this evening mainly north of I-40. I reduced the
POPs some especially before midnight. The surface front is
currently well upstream in Western Kentucky. A minor shortwave is
expected to move through the pattern this evening and I still
think we may get some light showers mainly north of I-40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Widespread cloud cover and light rain showers or sprinkles
continue this afternoon across the region ahead of a subtle
shortwave. This is resulting in southwest low- level flow near
the surface within broad upper-level W-NW flow. This warm, moist
boundary layer airmass and weak isentropic lift across the region
will keep us cloudy through the evening and overnight hours.
Precipitation chances remain low, and what precipitation does
occur, will be very light rain of a trace to a few hundredths of
an inch.

This shortwave moves east of the region on Saturday with shortwave
ridging aloft and at the surface. Dry conditions are expected with
continued much above normal, warm conditions. Near record high
temperatures are expected on Saturday and Sunday with the
anomalous ridging across the area.

By Sunday afternoon, a strong shortwave will amplify longwave
troughing across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with a strong
surface low pressure system moving northeast across the Great
Lakes. A trailing cold front will move southeastward and move
across the forecast area on Monday. Ahead of this system, strong
winds are expected across the higher elevations and foothills. The
850mb LLJ will be SW at 50 to 60 kt, but with a weaker pressure
gradient across the mountains, mountain wave winds are not
currently forecast to be significant. However, strong gradient
winds are still expected across the region and the higher
elevations where a wind advisory or high wind watch may be needed
in future updates for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Breezy conditions are expected area-wide.

Precipitation totals have been trending down with this system as
the primary upper jet dynamics continue to shift north towards the
Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS. Most of our forcing for lift will
be directly along the cold front with a relatively narrow band of
rainfall expected. Behind the cold front, NW flow will result in
some orographic precipitation and NW flow snowfall across the
higher elevations of the mountains. Snow accumulation across the
higher terrain is forecast to be light and limited.

High pressure and much colder air arrives next week with near
normal and below normal temperatures expected. Temperatures will
be back to what we normally see in late December and early January
with this cold, dry airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Winds are starting to subside. CIGs are already starting to lower
to MVFR. Rain showers are expected to develop over the next few
hours mainly near TRI. CIGs will be mostly MVFR tonight through
mid morning. CHA may see some patchy fog briefly around or
shortly after sunrise. VFR will return by mid morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 74 60 73 / 10 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 71 55 73 / 20 0 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 56 69 55 70 / 10 0 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 66 47 67 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

121
FXUS64 KMRX 250547
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1247 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather today through the weekend. Near
record temperatures possible across Chattanooga.

- Low rain chances across southwest Virginia and northeast
Tennessee for today through Friday night.

- Widespread rain for Sunday night and Monday morning with a
strong cold front.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee valley and
southern Appalachians for late Sunday and especially early next
week. Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher
elevations Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Currently have a good deal of cloud cover over the region but
with some breaks allowing patchy fog development. Due to the low
dewpoint depressions, do expect patchy fog to continue overnight.

Main weather story for the rest of the week into the first half of
the weekend will be a strong ridge of high pressure and anomaly high
heights over the southern half of the United States. This ridge will
produce unusual warmth for late December with highs around 20
degrees above normal. Near Record highs are possible today,
Friday and Saturday across Chattanooga area.

Christmas Day:

Forecast High Normal High Record High
Chattanooga: 73 52 75
Knoxville Airport: 69 49 76
Tri-Cities: 64 48 74

A series of jet streaks will move quickly with the fast flow from
the Ohio valley into the central Appalachians for today through
Friday night. A back door frontal boundary will also approach
southwest Virginia today and be near the area tonight and friday
before lifting north. Due to increasing isentropic lift with each
wave and some fronto-genetic forcing, rain showers chances are
expected for mainly southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee.
HREF/REFS/LREF and deterministic models show only light QPF amounts
with these systems and generally less than 0.20 inch.

A major pattern change will occur late this weekend and especially
early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis and deterministic
models show a digging upper trough over the eastern third of the
nation. A strong 300mb jet of 160-165kts digs into the Ohio valley
and central Appalachians producing a good deal of jet dynamics as
a strong frontal boundary moves into the area late Sunday night
and Monday morning. Widespread showers is expected especially
early Monday morning.

Much colder airmass quickly moves into the region for Monday and
Tuesday with highs 30+ degrees colder than this week. Highs Monday
will be early in the morning then temperatures falling during the
day.

Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday
night with single digits and teens in the valley. Cold airmass will
settle into the region for Tuesday. A slow moderation will begin
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Widespread low-end VFR or MVFR CIGS are expected overnight and
through much of the day for KTYS and KTRI, with some chances for
periods of SHRA at KTRI beyond 10z as an upper jet glances by
aloft. Though some guidance supports some brief MVFR CIGS at KCHA
just after daybreak, I think they will remain primarily VFR
through the period so the forecast reflects that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 57 73 60 / 0 10 0 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 58 71 59 / 20 10 20 40
Oak Ridge, TN 68 57 68 59 / 10 10 20 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 55 65 56 / 50 50 40 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

014
FXUS64 KMRX 252322
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
622 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather today through the weekend. Near record
temperatures possible across Chattanooga.

- Widespread rain for late Sunday night and Monday morning with a
strong cold front.

- Strong and gusty winds expected across the region Sunday night and
Monday, especially for the higher elevations.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians for late Sunday and especially early next week.
Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations
Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Currently, an area of scattered showers is moving southeast across
east Kentucky and southern West Virginia. This band is associated
with a back door cold front that will move south into southwest
Virgina late today and overnight. Otherwise, a good deal of cloud
cover over the region associated with a moist environment and weak
isentropic lift.

For tonight, this band of showers will move into southwest Virginia
and northeast Tennessee as a frontal boundary becomes quasi-
stationary there before lifting north on Friday. Scattered showers
are expected. Also, REFS are showing high probabilities of patchy
fog development overnight especially for southeast Tennessee. Some
of the fog will likely be dense.

Main weather story for the rest of the week into the first half of
the weekend will be a strong ridge of high pressure and anomaly high
heights over the southern half of the United States. This ridge will
produce unusual warmth for late December with highs around 20
degrees above normal. Near Record highs are possible across the
Chattanooga area.

Another short-wave/jet streak moves across the eastern Great Lakes
and Ohio valley into the central Appalachians Friday night. This
system will increase the isentropic lift over the area once again
pulling a weak frontal boundary toward southwest Virginia. Light
rain showers possible over southwest VA/northeast TN.
HREF/REFS/LREF and deterministic models show only light QPF amounts
with these system and generally less than 0.10 inch.

A major pattern change will occur late this weekend and especially
early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis and deterministic
models show a digging upper trough over the eastern third of the
nation. A strong 300mb jet of 160-165kts digs into the Ohio valley
and central Appalachians producing a good deal of jet dynamics as
a strong frontal boundary moves into the area late Sunday night
and Monday morning. Widespread showers is expected especially
early Monday morning.

The 850mb jet increases to 40-50kts for Sunday night and Monday. As
the strong frontal boundary moves through with strong pressure rise
do expect strong and gusty winds with fropa. Also, strong gradient
winds will enhance the winds especially for the higher elevations. A
wind advisory may be need for the higher elevations.

Much colder airmass quickly moves into the region for Monday and
Tuesday with highs 30+ degrees colder than this week. Highs Monday
will be early in the morning then temperatures falling during the
day. Precipitation will change over to light snow or flurries across
the higher elevations before ending. Snow accumulations will be less
than 1 inch.

Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday
night with single digits and teens in the valley. Cold airmass will
settle into the region for Tuesday. A slow moderation will begin
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

CHA should remain MVFR through most of the period. However, there
could certainly be periods of VFR but too low in confidence to
specify a specific time period. TYS and TRI will see a mix of
MVFR and VFR throughout the period. Also, gusty afternoon winds on
Friday at TYS out of the southwest at around 20kts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 72 59 76 / 0 10 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 70 58 73 / 10 20 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 56 67 58 71 / 10 20 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 65 56 67 / 40 30 50 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

297
FXUS64 KMRX 241153 AAB
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
653 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Low rain chances this morning mainly north of I-40. Otherwise
cloudy skies.

- Unseasonable warm weather through the weekend, especially Thursday
through Saturday. Near record temperatures possible across
Chattanooga.

- Rain showers are expected off and on from Wednesday night through
Friday night mainly north of I-40. Rain amounts will be light.

- The best chance for widespread rain will be Sunday with a cold
front moving through the region in the evening.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians
for late Sunday and especially early next week. Wind chills may
drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Currently light showers are noted across southern Kentucky moving
east southeast into southwest Virginia and northern half of east
Tennessee. Isentropic lift is the main forcing especially around
the 295 and 300K levels. This forcing is the strongest over the
area until around 12-15Z. QPF amounts will be very light and
average less than 0.05 inch mainly north of interstate 40.

Main weather story for much of the week will be a strong upper ridge
of high pressure over the southern half of the United States with
the storm track over the Ohio valley into the central
Appalachians. This ridge will produce unusual warmth for late
December with highs around 20 degrees above normal. Near Record
highs are possible Christmas Day, Friday and Saturday across
Chattanooga.

Christmas Day:

Forecast High Normal High Record High
Chattanooga: 73 52 75
Knoxville Airport: 68 49 76
Tri-Cities: 64 48 74

A series of jet streaks will move quickly with the fast flow from
the Ohio valley into the central Appalachians for Wednesday
night/Thursday and again late Friday and Friday night. A frontal
boundary will also approach the area Thursday. Due to increasing
isentropic lift with each wave and fronto-genetic forcing, rain
showers chances increase during those periods. LREF and
deterministic models show the great coverage of rain over southwest
Virginia and northeast Tennessee then decreasing south. Overall, QPF
amounts for the latter half of the week will vary from around 0.25
inch over southwest Virginia to 0.05 or less around Knoxville.

A major pattern change will occur late this weekend into early
next week. Ensemble cluster analysis and deterministic models
show a digging upper trough over the eastern third of the nation.
A strong 300mb jet of 160-165kts digs into the Ohio valley and
central Appalachians producing a good deal of jet dynamics as a
strong frontal boundary moves into the area Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Deterministic models show increasing fronto-genetic forcing along
this frontal boundary due to the strength of the jet dynamics.
Widespread showers is becoming more likely Sunday afternoon into
early Sunday night.

Much colder airmass quickly moves into the region for Monday and
Tuesday with highs 30+ degrees colder than this week. Wind chills
may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday night with
single digits and teens in the valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Widespread BKN-OVC060 continue across the region this morning,
with some underlying MVFR CIGS near KTYS and KTRI. Satellite
imagery continues to show deterioration in that lower cloud deck
due to very weak SHRA activity moving through east TN. Given the
MVFR CIGS coming in/out of the obs, will go with prevailing VFR
categories at KTYS and KTRI and relegate the MVFR stuff to a tempo
for the next 3-4 hours as most guidance shows all sites back to
VFR levels by that 16-18z timeframe. Regarding the SHRA, they're
very sparse so no plans to include them at TAF sites for the
moment. Lack of air mass change means MVFR CIGS will be possible
at KTYS and KTRI again.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 55 73 57 / 10 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 57 68 58 / 30 20 40 40
Oak Ridge, TN 67 56 68 57 / 30 20 40 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 52 64 55 / 10 50 80 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

065
FXUS64 KMRX 242331
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
631 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather through the weekend, especially
Thursday through Saturday. Near record temperatures near Chattanooga.

- Light rain showers are expected Christmas Day through Friday
night mainly north of I-40. Limited rainfall totals expected.

- The best chance for widespread rain will be Sunday night with a
cold front moving through the region.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachians early next week. Wind chills may drop below zero
across the higher elevations Monday night. Light snow and snow
flurries also possible across the mountains on Monday behind the
cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Upper-level ridging will produce continued unseasonable warmth
across the region. A series of upper- level shortwaves within the
NW flow aloft will produce light rain showers off and on through
Friday night. The highest probability of rain will be north of
Interstate 40 with lower probabilities for accumulating
precipitation further south near Chattanooga. Through Saturday
morning, there is an 80+ percent chance of everyone seeing at
least 0.01 inch of rainfall, but these NBM probabilities drop
significant when looking at probabilities of greater than 0.25
inch (Chattanooga at 15%, Knoxville at 40%, and Tri-Cities at
70%). With the ridging centered across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and greatest upper-level heights across our southern
counties, Chattanooga will have the highest chance of meeting or
exceeding record high temperatures through Saturday.

A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley on Sunday as a surface cold front moves
southeastward across our region on Sunday night. Strong frontal
forcing and favorable synoptic support for ascent, mainly across
our northern counties, will result in likely rainfall area-wide
on Sunday night into Monday morning. This cold front will move
across the region with an Arctic airmass in its wake. Much colder
air will settle across the region through the middle part of next
week. With some northeast flow, light orographic snowfall will be
possible across the higher elevations of the East Tennessee
mountains, mainly above 3000 ft, with snow flurries continuing
through Monday night across the mountains. The valley and lower
elevations are not expected to see any impacts with minor impacts
possible to roads across the highest elevations of the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through much of the
night. Increasing isentropic lift and a back door front
approaching southwest Virginia during the afternoon Christmas Day
will increase chances of showers especially for TRI late tonight
and Thursday. Flight conditions will also become MVFR at TRI and
TYS tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 73 56 73 / 0 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 68 58 70 / 20 30 30 30
Oak Ridge, TN 56 68 57 68 / 20 20 30 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 64 56 65 / 60 60 60 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

618
FXUS64 KMRX 231159 AAB
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

- Low rain chances today through Wednesday. Main message is the
unseasonably warm temperatures.

- Unseasonable warm weather for Christmas Day and Friday with highs
some 15 to 20 degrees above normal. An increasing chance of
measurable rainfall mainly along and north of interstate 40.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures for Saturday ahead of an approaching
cold front for Saturday night/Sunday morning. Greatest coverage
of showers expected with frontal passage.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians for late Sunday and especially early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

Main weather story for much of the week will be a ridge of high
pressure building across the southern half of the United States
which will produce unseasonably warm conditions. Temperatures for
much of the week will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

Currently, radar shows light showers moving across the region. The
boundary layer airmass remains quite so much of returns are not
reaching the ground (virga). HREF and deterministic models show
isentropic lift continuing through the next 24-36 hours helping
to moisten the airmass and produce light showers/sprinkles.
Chances of measurable rainfall is low.

Christmas Day:

Forecast High Normal High Record High
Chattanooga: 73 52 75
Knoxville Airport: 69 49 76
Tri-Cities: 63 48 74

Models show a system moving quickly in strong westerly flow aloft
across the Ohio valley into the central Appalachians. Stronger
isentropic lift and possible frontal boundary moving into southwest
Virginia will increase chances of rain showers for Christmas Day and
much of Friday. Rain chances will be mainly along and north of
interstate 40.

Ensemble cluster analysis and deterministic models show a major
upper level pattern change for late next weekend and early next week.
A upper trough digs into the eastern United States with a strong
frontal boundary moving across the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians. This front will bring the best chance for rain late
Saturday night and Sunday. Due to limited gulf moisture return QPF
amounts will remain light. Much colder air returns to the region for
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

Regional radar shows some scattered SHRA moving east across
middle and eastern TN early this morning. Expect this to continue
thorugh midday or so, mainly INVOF KTYS and KTRI so I have some
VCSH mentioned to account for this. Otherwise, VFR CIGS right now
should gradually lower to MVFR territory across east TN by
midday, and possibly to IFR levels for the two northern sites
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 54 71 55 / 10 10 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 56 67 55 / 20 30 20 20
Oak Ridge, TN 60 53 65 55 / 20 40 10 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 50 62 50 / 30 40 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

099
FXUS64 KMRX 232311 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
611 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

- Low rain chances tonight mainly north of I-40. Otherwise cloudy
skies and maybe some drizzle today and tomorrow.

- Unseasonable warm weather through the weekend, especially Thursday
through Saturday.

- Rain showers are expected off and on from Wednesday night through
Friday night mainly north of I-40. Rain amounts will be light.

- The best chance for widespread rain will be Sunday with a cold
front moving through the region in the evening.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians for late Sunday and especially early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

In the upper levels, a strong ridge is over the Central U.S. At the
surface, high pressure is over the Southeast and a low is moving
through Eastern Canada today bringing a weak boundary near or just
north of the region. Very low rain chances are present today and
tomorrow with some drizzle possible at times. Tonight rain chances
are better with some light showers possible off and on as the
boundary dips southward. CAMs show scattered light showers tonight.
Rain amounts will be low with weak forcing and limited moisture
present. Another chance for light rain is possible late Wednesday
night through Thursday night mainly north of I-40 as a series minor
waves move through the pattern with a strong ridge over the Central
U.S. There may also be remnants of the stalling surface boundary
still present over the region. Again, any rain amounts will be light
with limited moisture present.

The ridge flattens by Friday bringing nearly zonal flow aloft. A
weak surface low will move through the Ohio Valley Friday bringing
low light rain chances off and on Thursday night through Friday
night. The best chance for rain will be Sunday when a more
substantial system will bring widespread rain chances to the region.
A clean cold front passage is expected around Sunday evening with
much colder temps arriving Sunday night or Monday.

A warming trend continues with the warmest days expected to be
Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will be above normal all
week through the weekend. Chattanooga will have a shot at the record
high on Christmas Day with the forecast at one degree below.

Christmas Day:

Forecast High Normal High Record High
Chattanooga: 74 52 75
Knoxville Airport: 69 49 76
Tri-Cities: 64 48 74

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

The general trend to cigs through the night is expected to be
lowering to MVFR around midnight, with periods of IFR at TRI
toward sunrise. IFR may be possible at TYS as well, but confidence
is low. Gradual lifting and/or scattering of cigs may come in the
afternoon at all sites, but confidence is the timing of this is
low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 72 56 74 / 10 10 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 67 57 69 / 40 20 20 30
Oak Ridge, TN 54 66 56 69 / 40 20 30 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 62 51 64 / 50 10 50 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

670
FXUS64 KMRX 221143 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
643 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

- Dry conditions will continue today with RH's falling well into
the 20s.

- Chances for light rain arrive Tuesday. Amounts are meager, if
any.

- Unusual mild weather in time for Christmas Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Another dry day on tap today, with return flow aloft leading to a
weak breeze in the southern valley this afternoon. Tempting to issue
a late season Fire Danger Statement, but fuel moisture data seems
marginally okay despite the recent dry weather and very dry
atmosphere. Highest danger is along the Georgian border, where a
combination of dry air and the available winds exists.

Weak boundary sets up tomorrow into Christmas Eve to our north,
isentropic lift will attempt to saturate the lower level atmosphere,
however the low level atmosphere will run interference. All guidance
indicates next to nothing rainfall amounts, and many areas may only
see virga or sprinkles on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, the low levels
may be able to saturate enough to allow scattered light rain
showers. Rainfall will remain meager.

The most unusual weather is still the exceptional mild weather
heading into and beyond day 1 of Christmas, with very abnormal
temperatures dominating late week. Guidance is in agreeance that
a couple systems will arrive late in the period and begin eroding
the southern ridge, potentially leading to cooler weather a full
week from now. For those dreaming of a white Christmas, we will
keep dreaming this year. NBM is now at a 35% chance of Chattanooga
breaking the record high for the date.

Forecast High Normal High Record High
Chattanooga: 74 52 75
Knoxville Airport: 71 49 76
Tri-Cities: 65 48 74

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Low clouds currently over northern GA/AL this morning, will
advance northward this afternoon and evening. Pattern recognition
suggests that some MVFR CIGS will be possible by the last 4-6
hours of the period at KCHA. Have some SCT025 mentioned for the
time being to show gradual lowering of cloud heights by early Tue
morning. Elsewhere, high confidence in VFR categories prevailing.
Winds will be light through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 47 66 52 / 0 10 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 45 61 54 / 0 10 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 55 44 60 51 / 0 10 10 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 38 56 49 / 0 20 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

699
FXUS64 KMRX 222350
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
650 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

- Dry conditions will continue this afternoon with RH's falling
well into the 20s.

- Low rain chances tonight and tomorrow. Low rain chances off and on
mid to late week. Any rain will be light.

- Unseasonable warm weather expected for Christmas Eve and
Christmas Day likely continuing through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

In the upper levels, a ridge is building into the Central U.S. At
the surface, high pressure is over the Southeast and a low is moving
through the Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow bringing a weak
boundary near or just north of the region. Very low rain chances
begin late tonight and continue tomorrow. CAMs show scattered light
showers. With a very dry air mass at the surface, some of this light
rain may evaporate before reaching the ground. Chances for rain
reaching the ground are better for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
but amounts will be low with weak forcing and limited moisture
present. Another chance for light rain is possible late Wednesday
night and Thursday morning as a minor wave moves through the
pattern with a strong ridge now over the Central U.S. Again, any
rain amounts will be light with limited moisture present.

The ridge flattens by Friday bringing nearly zonal flow aloft. A
series of minor waves will bring low light rain chances off and
on Thursday night through Friday night. The best chance for rain
will be Sunday when a more substantial system may bring a clean
cold front passage with cooler weather next Monday.

A warming trend starts today with things really heating up by
Wednesday, remaining warm through the weekend. Chattanooga will have
a shot at the record high on Christmas Day with the forecast at one
degree below.

Christmas Day:

Forecast High Normal High Record High
Chattanooga: 74 52 75
Knoxville Airport: 69 49 76
Tri-Cities: 63 48 74

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Increasing LLJ overnight will bring possible LLWS conditions to
TYS and TRI. Cloud cover will continue to increase into tomorrow
and may reach MVFR levels early in the day. A weak system within
the flow pattern, wants to bring light showers to the area
tomorrow, but confidence is low on that occurring, given how dry
it is and has been. Winds will be out of the S to SW, with gusts
to near 20KT possible at TYS beginning mid to late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 66 54 71 / 10 10 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 62 55 67 / 10 20 40 20
Oak Ridge, TN 46 61 52 66 / 20 20 50 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 56 50 61 / 20 20 40 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

363
FXUS64 KMRX 211147 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
647 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Low to medium chances for light rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

- Unusually warm temperatures for Christmas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Weak cold front passing through early this morning will yield a
very dry afternoon across the region, but not much else otherwise.
Temperatures then tomorrow morning will be a standard December
chill. A weak disturbance riding in the otherwise building upper
ridge flow may bring some light rain showers to the Valley Tuesday
night into Christmas Eve, but the amounts are paltry. The
building ridge really dominates heading into Christmas Day,
delivering temperatures far above normal. Probabilities for record
Christmas temperatures look low at all 3 airports, though
Chattanooga is forecast to get close.

Forecast High Normal High Record High
Chattanooga: 72 52 75
Knoxville Airport: 68 49 76
Tri-Cities: 65 48 74

Beyond Christmas, another weak front may make it as far south as
the Mid-South, but the southern ridge will otherwise maintain mild
weather into the holiday weekend. Guidance has low to medium
chances of rain then, but uncertainty may end up yielding a drier
forecast, should the front fail to reach this far south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR flight categories will prevail through the period. Cold
frontal passage this morning will produce northerly winds through
the day, with calm conditions expected tonight.VFR low clouds will
likely persist until midday or so before giving way to
increasingly clear skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 33 57 47 / 10 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 28 57 45 / 0 0 0 30
Oak Ridge, TN 53 30 55 45 / 0 0 0 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 25 55 38 / 0 0 0 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

529
FXUS64 KMRX 212316
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
616 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Dry conditions will continue today and tomorrow with RH's
falling well into the 20s and even upper teens.

- Chances for light rain arrive by Tuesday.

- Dry and very mild conditions are expected heading into Christmas
Day with highs well into the 60s to low 70s in the south. Rain
chances return again Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Currently, troughing is centered over the eastern U.S. with high
pressure over Illinois. This setup has put the region in a
northeasterly flow pattern with continued dry air, with persistent
cloud cover likely to dissipate this afternoon. RH values have
already fallen in some spots with many likely to see values deep
into the 20s and even upper teens for some. On Monday, troughing
will lift towards the northeast with high pressure shifting just to
our east. The closer proximity will lead to a weaker MSLP gradient
and lighter winds but dry and warmer conditions. Monday night into
Tuesday, a weak system will progress into the Great Lakes with
increasing moisture and southwesterly 850mb flow strengthening to 40
kts or greater. While the setup is not ideal for mountain waves,
strong winds can be expected at high elevations. This will also
bring a return of chances for light rain with temperatures near and
below 850mb warm enough for no frozen precipitation. Rain chances
will decrease by Christmas Eve as moisture lifts north and west of
the region.

For Christmas Day, broad ridging and high pressure to our south and
east will support dry and unseasonably mild conditions with most
places rising well into the 60s. Another system will also develop to
our northwest and track towards the Great Lakes, strengthening
southerly flow. Friday into the weekend, the front associated with
this system will approach from the northwest, bringing another
return of chances for light rain. Temperatures will remain warm
enough for liquid precipitation but still lacking instability for
convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Light winds
will become south and southwest at CHA and TYS late in the period
but still generally less than 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 58 48 66 / 0 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 56 43 61 / 0 0 20 20
Oak Ridge, TN 30 55 43 59 / 0 0 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 24 55 37 55 / 0 0 20 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

674
FXUS64 KMRX 201142 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
642 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

- Low to medium chances for light rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

- Unusually warm temperatures for Christmas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

Mild and mainly dry week culminating in an unusually warm Christmas
this year. Today will be a little warmer, with strong return flow
bringing a mild airmass back into the region out ahead of a dry
cold front. Front will pass by on Sunday, with zero rainfall
expected.

A building ridge over the Gulf will be the main synoptic feature
next week, with only low to medium chances of rain Tuesday and
Tuesday night as a weak disturbance and front riding the top of
the ridge try to bring rain to the area before the upper ridge
strengthens again. By Christmas Day, the 500mb ridge heights will
be near record heights, and the 850 ridge heights will be above
the 90th percentile, with 850 temperatures on the LREF ensemble
mean above the 90th percentile strength as well. All this to say
it will be an unusually warm Christmas this year. Other than Santa
not needing a coat, no significant weather impacts are forecast,
with generally benign weather the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

Another front will move through the region late tonight.
Increasing moist southwest flow ahead of the front could lead to
some VCSH along with spotty MVFR CIGS after 06z-09z, but
confidence is not high in either of those cases. Will keep all
sites VFR and advertise lowering cloud heights late in the period
for now. Otherwise, the increase in low level wind field should
produce some LLWS conditions at KTYS and KTRI for several hours
this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 40 58 34 / 0 10 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 38 54 30 / 0 10 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 55 38 54 30 / 0 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 33 50 24 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

318
FXUS64 KMRX 202305
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
605 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

- Low to medium chances for light rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

- Unusually warm temperatures for Christmas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

Dry and mild through Monday with highs in the 50s in the Tennessee
Valley. In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow or slight troughing
will be in place before a slight ridge builds in on Monday. At the
surface, high pressure will be in place. Low rain chances will
return Monday night through Tuesday as a low moves through the Great
Lakes bringing a boundary through the region or stalling just to the
north. Temps look warm with highs in the 60s expected for Christmas
Eve and Christmas Day, thanks to a ridge building into the
Southeast. Another shot of rain is possible on Friday as another
Great Lakes system brings another boundary to the region.

Highs will be up to 20 degrees above normal on Christmas Day

Forecast High Normal High Record High
Chattanooga: 72 52 75
Knoxville Airport: 68 49 76
Tri-Cities: 63 48 74

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

Some low clouds will move into the region later tonight. The most
likely terminal to briefly see MVFR cigs looks to be CHA. Low
Level Wind Shear will be a concern mainly near TRI and TYS tonight,
ending in the early morning hours. The lower clouds will scatter
out by mid morning all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 59 34 57 / 10 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 54 30 55 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 38 54 31 54 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 50 24 54 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

846
FXUS64 KMRX 192319
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
619 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

- Gusty winds will subside late this afternoon in the Tennessee
Valley and this evening in the mountains.

- Cooler temps through tomorrow morning. Temps rebound quickly over
the weekend and remain mild next week with mainly dry conditions.

- The best chance for rain appears to be Tuesday/Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Westerly winds will continue to be gusty today before subsiding late
this afternoon and evening. The trough over the region will exit by
this evening with nearly zonal flow moving in. At the surface, high
pressure will quickly move into the Southeast today and tonight.
Temps will be cooler today and tonight but will rebound to highs in
the 50s tomorrow through Monday or Tuesday. In the upper levels,
nearly zonal flow will continue this weekend with high pressure
moving in from the northwest. Dry weather will continue this weekend
through Monday. Low rain chances will return Monday night through
Tuesday as a warm or stationary boundary sets up near the Ohio
Valley. Temps look warm with highs possibly in the 60s for Christmas
Eve and Christmas Day, thanks to a ridge building into the
Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025


VFR conditions through the period at all sites with light winds
less than 10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 58 39 57 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 56 36 53 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 27 54 36 53 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 55 33 50 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

314
FXUS64 KMRX 182330
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
630 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

- Wind Advisory for strong mountain winds; meanwhile widespread
showers, and isolated thunder in the south are expected this
afternoon into early Friday morning.

- Colder temperatures behind a front on Friday, but rebound
quickly over the weekend and remain mild next week with mainly
dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

So far, wind obs in the mountains have not been too impressive and
under Advisory criteria, with even Cove Mountain only touching 40
mph with the latest ob. The winds are expected to increase as we
go through the afternoon, as the NAM shows the 850 mb LLJ around
50 kt in the next few hours, and HREF probs of 40+ kt gusts rising
over a larger area across the mountains and foothills. Can't rule
out an isolated gust to 55 mph on some mountain peaks, but the
probability of reaching this high is low in the HREF. For the TN
Valley, we have had a surface inversion this morning that has been
preventing winds from reaching the ground at most spots. Looking
at the model soundings, that inversion lingers well into the
evening until the arrival of a line of showers. The timing of this
line appears to be between 03-07Z based on the CAMS. Stronger
portions of the line could bring winds aloft down to the surface,
with 40 to 50 mph gusts possible. There is some elevated CAPE
tonight, enough to warrant a mention of isolated thunderstorms,
but not enough for a widespread severe threat. The intensity of
the line will be diminishing as it moves from the Cumberland
Plateau through the TN Valley.

On the backside of the system early Friday morning, the potential
window for snow between the exiting moisture and building cold air
appears to close quickly behind the surface front. The upper
trough follows closely behind the front, and so dry air aloft builds
in rapidly and ends any precip chances by sunrise Friday morning.

Colder temperatures follow the strong cold front on Friday, with
highs in the 40s. Highs rebound back to the 50s for Saturday and
Sunday. A weak disturbance may bring some light rain Saturday
night into Sunday but with low probabilities of measurable
rainfall. High temps should be mostly in the 50s for next week.
There are some more weak disturbances shown in the models that
bring low rain chances next week, mainly Tuesday-Wednesday, but
these appear to have little to no impacts, if they happen at all.
The general pattern late in the week of a large ridge over TX/LA
will favor dry and mild conditions around Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Main weather concern is line of gusty showers moving through the
region tonight. Main timeframe for showers is 02-08z ahead of a
cold front. Conditions dropping to IFR are expected under the
showers along with breezy winds ahead of the line. Once the line
moves through ceilings will remain low through the morning before
slowly improving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 50 29 58 / 90 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 45 27 58 / 100 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 33 45 26 55 / 90 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 42 25 56 / 90 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

927
FXUS64 KMRX 191154 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

- Colder temperatures behind a cold front today, but they rebound
quickly over the weekend and remain mild into next week.

- A few isolated showers north of I-40 possible through mid
morning. Otherwise, dry conditions expected through the weekend
and into the first of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

A strong cold front is moving through the forecast area at the
moment, with a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms out
ahead of it. That line, which had a history of wind gusts in
excess of 50-60 mph, was situated from West Virginia down through
the southern Appalachians as of 1230 AM, with the only part of it
still within our CWA currently moving through our Virginia
counties and the Tri-Cities and northeast TN area. This should be
east of our forecast area by 2am at the latest, with clearing
conditions expected through daybreak. Winds aloft remain quite
strong through 08-09z or so, before 850mb winds turn northwesterly
and drop off. The wind advisory will remain in place until that
time.

On the backside of the system early Friday, the window for snow
between departing moisture and incoming cold air looks brief. The
upper trough closely trails the surface front, ushering in rapid
drying aloft and ending precipitation chances by sunrise or
thereabouts.

Behind the front, Friday highs will only reach the 40s. Temperatures
rebound into the 50s for Saturday and Sunday. A weak disturbance may
bring light rain Saturday night into Sunday, though measurable
amounts appear unlikely. Highs next week should generally remain in
the 50s.

Models hint at additional weak disturbances TuesdayrCoWednesday with
low rain chances, but impacts appear minimal. Toward late week, a
broad ridge centered over Texas and Louisiana favors dry, mild
conditions heading into Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR categories expected through the period. A second, trailing
cold front will move through east TN this morning. This will keep
winds quite breezy at KTRI and KTYS, with winds subsiding through
the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 30 58 40 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 27 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 43 27 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 24 56 32 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

464
FXUS64 KMRX 181143
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
643 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

- Wind Advisory for strong mountain winds; meanwhile widespread
showers, and isolated thunder in the south are expected this
afternoon into early Friday morning.

- Colder temperatures behind a front on Friday, but rebound
quickly over the weekend and remain mild next week with mainly
dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Little change from the previous forecast. A deep upper trough will
swing through the area in the short term, yielding strong mountain
winds, showers, and a few rumbles of thunder.

Winds:

The 850mb jet begins to ramp up between 09Z and 12Z this morning.
12Z is when a Wind Advisory goes into effect for the east TN
mountain zones. This will be a prolonged event as the LLJ remains
elevated through Friday morning, until the frontal passage. The Wind
Advisory is set to expire 09Z Friday. HREF probs shows high
confidence in gusts up to 40 mph within the Advisory area. Those
probabilities wane as you look at gust probs for 50 mph and
greater. REFS isn't as aggressive with the winds overall, with
more muted conditions overall and lesser probabilities of criteria
over the Plateau. There is an isolated area for gusts up to 60
mph, with moderately high probs, across areas such as Cove
Mountain. So while a few isolated locations will likely see High
Wind Warning criteria, the majority of the mountains will only see
Advisory level gusts. Opting not to issue a wind advisory over the
northern Plateau counties, not convinced the atmosphere will mix
down advisory strength gusts given poor lapse rates in the lowest
1 km of atmosphere, and so will side with the REFS mean depiction.

NAM soundings show the low-level inversion eroding latter this
afternoon when showers arrive. This is when valley locations will
likely begin to see some 20 to 30 mph gusts. Toward this evening, a
few thunderstorms are also possible across the southern tier between
00-06Z. This is when there is an even greater chance for valley
locations to see some higher gusts. This is due to these heavier
showers having better chances to transport higher winds aloft down
to the surface. Wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph are possible. This is
supported by the widespread 80 to 90% HREF probs for gusts over 20
mph in many valley locations this afternoon, and then 80 to 90%
probs this evening for gusts over 35 mph.

Rain:

Precip arrives first across the southern TN valley this afternoon,
then spreading northeast through this evening. Favored downsloping
areas along the foothills of the east TN mountains and into the
valley will likely remain precip free until late tonight with any
meaning precip not occurring until early Friday morning. NBM precip
looks overdone across these downslope areas so will trend QPF
amounts downward.

On the backside of the system early Friday morning, light snow may
occur if cold air advection and northwest flow align with lingering
moisture. Any accumulations would likely be very light given the
short duration of overlap between the exiting moisture and the
building cold air.

Rest of the forecast:

Colder temperatures follow the strong cold front on Friday, with
highs in the 40s. Highs rebound back to the 50s for Saturday and
Sunday. A weak disturbance may bring some light rain Saturday night
into Sunday but low probabilities. High temps should be mostly in
the 50s for next week. There are some more weak disturbances
shown in the models that bring low rain chances next week, mainly Tuesday-Wednesday, but these appear to have little to no impacts,
if they happen at all.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Strong flow aloft with poor lapse rates is forecast to lead to an
extended period of LLWS today. Should winds be able to mix down
to the surface, wind shear threat will be lessened. CIGs will
gradually deteriorate today, except for KTRI. Tonight a thin line
of moderate to briefly heavy rain will cross from west to east in
association with the cold front. IFR VIS during this line is
possible. This bout of rain will also coincide with the end of
wind shear, as strong mixing occurs on the backside of FROPA. KTRI
will deteriorate to MVFR during this time as well, late in the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 36 50 29 / 90 90 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 36 45 27 / 60 100 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 58 33 45 26 / 70 90 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 36 42 25 / 50 90 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

483
FXUS64 KMRX 171142
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
642 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Strong mountain winds, widespread showers, and isolated thunder
in the south are expected on Thursday and Thursday night.

- Afterwards, drier and cooler conditions return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

A weak ridge aloft remains in place while surface high pressure
continues to support dry weather across the southern Appalachians.
Mid level stratus deck is moving in from our west which will help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than what we've experienced the
past few nights, with lows expected to drop near or just below
freezing instead of the teens. Warm temperatures will remain in
place Wednesday, a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. By Thursday, a
deepening trough will dig across the central United States, driving
warm and moist air advection into the region. Temperatures will rise
above normal, and precipitation chances will increase areawide.
Rainfall will initially develop through isentropic ascent, followed
by a frontal passage Thursday night.

Low associated with this system will track across northern Michigan,
and favorable low-level jet orientation of 55rCo65 kts per latest NAM guidance, mountain wave winds are expected across the East Tennessee
mountains and adjacent foothills. Current projections support gusts
50 mph or more. A Wind Advisory appears increasingly likely, with
potential to reach High Wind criteria in some isolated spots as the
event approaches.

Rain will be the primary precipitation type with this system due to
the warm temperatures. A few thunderstorms are possible across the
southern tier, where some forecast soundings indicate weak elevated instability. Despite limited instability, the strong low-level jet
could allow heavier showers to mix down gusts of 30rCo40 mph,
particularly as the main axis forcing moves through. However, the
risk of damaging winds remains low. On the backside of the system
early Friday morning, light snow may occur if cold air advection and
northwest flow align with lingering moisture. Any accumulations
would likely be confined to higher elevations given the above-normal temperatures preceding the system heating the ground up in advance.

Behind the front, high pressure will return Friday afternoon,
bringing drier and cooler conditions. The upper-level flow will
become quasi-zonal through the weekend, though weak disturbances
could produce occasional light rain. NBM guidance introduces PoPs of
30% or less for the latter half of the weekend into early next week.
Any rainfall should be light and non-impactful, with more dry
periods than wet. Temperatures will rebound to slightly above normal
values over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR through the period, though a low chance for MVFR exists at
KCHA as low level moisture begins reaching saturation Thursday
morning. Otherwise winds aloft will be on the increase heading
into Thursday morning but currently look to fall short of LLWS
criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 39 60 35 / 0 10 80 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 35 61 35 / 10 10 80 100
Oak Ridge, TN 50 34 59 32 / 10 10 80 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 33 59 34 / 0 0 50 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

567
FXUS64 KMRX 172320
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
620 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Strong mountain winds, widespread showers, and isolated thunder in
the south are expected Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning.

- Colder temperatures behind a front on Friday, but rebound
quickly over the weekend and remain mild next week with mainly
dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Over the next 48 hours, a strong, deep upper trough and associated
surface cold front will affect the area. Although the center of the
surface low will remain well north, in the northern portions of the
Great Lakes, the strong amplification of the upper trough and upper
jet positioning will result in a pretty dynamic system in the OH/TN
Valleys. Today and tonight, the low level air mass will be quite
dry, but low levels will gradually moisten through Thursday with
isentropic lift and warm advection. The pressure gradient along
the Appalachians starts to tighten Thursday morning, and some of
the higher peaks, such as Cove Mountain, may start to see gusts
near 40 mph as early as 12Z. Gusts in the 40-50 mph range will
become more common in the mid to late afternoon for areas in the
mountains and foothills that tend to be affected by mountain wave
winds. A few isolated spots could reach High Wind criteria
Thursday night, but confidence on that is still low. Will hold off
on issuing any Wind Advisories for now since we have over 24
hours before its expected start time. If a low level inversion
Thursday morning erodes in the afternoon, then Valley locations
will likely see some strong winds as well.

Rain with this system arrives Thursday afternoon as isentropically-
driven scattered showers in southern sections, with increasing
coverage and a northward spread through the evening as QG forcing
builds in earnest. A few thunderstorms are possible across the
southern tier between 00-06Z, where some forecast soundings
indicate weak elevated instability. Despite limited instability,
the strong low- level jet could allow heavier showers to mix down
gusts of 30rCo40 mph, particularly as the main axis forcing moves
through. However, the risk of damaging winds remains low. On the
backside of the system early Friday morning, light snow may occur
if cold air advection and northwest flow align with lingering
moisture. Any accumulations would likely be very light given the
short duration of overlap between the exiting moisture and the
building cold air.

Colder temperatures follow the strong cold front on Friday, with
highs in the 40s. Highs rebound back to the 50s for Saturday and
Sunday, and should be mostly in the 50s for next week. There are
some weak disturbances shown in the models that bring low rain
chances next week, mainly Tuesday-Wednesday, but these appear to
have little to no impacts, if they happen at all.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

LLWS in at all sites by tomorrow morning. VFR at CHA and TYS from
now until late tomorrow morning/afternoon when ceilings lower due
to the arrival of rain showers. TRI should remain VFR through the
period due to downsloping winds off the east TN mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 60 36 50 / 0 90 100 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 62 36 46 / 0 90 100 0
Oak Ridge, TN 34 59 33 45 / 0 80 100 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 60 35 42 / 0 80 100 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

.
181
FXUS64 KMRX 302350 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
650 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and widespread
rain to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Far northeast
mountains, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia,
may begin as a wintry mix.

- Rain expected elsewhere. Perhaps a changeover to snow late
Tuesday across higher elevations as moisture is exiting. Limited
accumulations at most.

- Dry Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances increasing
once again Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Currently a frontal boundary is moving into the Plateau.
Isentropic lift in advance of the boundary is producing areas of
light rain, areas of fog and cloudy sky. As the frontal boundary
moves across the region late this afternoon/early evening, drier
air will move into the region with an erosion of the clouds and
fog. Sky will become mostly clear by early Monday morning.

For Monday, surface ridging will produce dry conditions until the
evening hours. There will be increasing high and mid-level clouds.

For Monday evening through Tuesday, a northern stream short-wave
diving into the central/southern plains will phase with a short
stream jet energy across the lower Mississippi valley. Strong jet
dynamics will move across the region during the morning hours
enhancing the fronto-genetic forcing along a boundary over the
region. Widespread rain with amounts from 1/2-3/4 inch southwest Virginia/northeast Tennessee to 1 to 1 1/2 inches across the
Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina.

REFS and RRFS-a show a pocket of freezing rain is likely near the
northwest North Carolina/northeast Tennessee stateline. The
communities of Trade, Mountain City, Shadey Valley may experience
a period of icing early Tuesday morning. Possibly effecting
eastern sections of Russell and Washington county as well.

Another impact is a possible mountain wave high wind event across
the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills early Tuesday
morning. HREF and REFS probabilities show decent chance of 40-45
mph gusts.

As the system moves east, deterministic and ensemble probabilities
show the cold air advection changing rain to a wintry mix for the
northern Plateau into the higher elevations of southwest Virginia
and northeast/central sections of the far east Tennessee
mountains. Light snow/ice accumulations are possible, generally 1
inch or less of snow.

For Wednesday and Thursday, upper flow becomes more zonal with
surface ridging producing drier and milder conditions.

For Friday into next weekend, phasing of an another
northern/southern stream systems look plausible with widespread
rain. Colder air from wedging into the Carolinas may once again
produce a wintry mix across sections of southwest Virginia and
northeast Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Conditions will be improving at all sites over the next few hours
as a front moves through, followed by a drier air mass. A return
to VFR conditions is expected at all sites by 06Z, along with a
shift of winds to a northerly direction. VFR conditions persist
through tomorrow, although low VFR to MVFR cigs may return to CHA
near the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 50 39 47 / 0 60 100 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 49 38 45 / 0 40 100 80
Oak Ridge, TN 25 47 37 43 / 0 40 100 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 49 36 43 / 0 10 100 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS

.


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

181
FXUS64 KMRX 302350 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
650 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and widespread
rain to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Far northeast
mountains, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia,
may begin as a wintry mix.

- Rain expected elsewhere. Perhaps a changeover to snow late
Tuesday across higher elevations as moisture is exiting. Limited
accumulations at most.

- Dry Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances increasing
once again Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Currently a frontal boundary is moving into the Plateau.
Isentropic lift in advance of the boundary is producing areas of
light rain, areas of fog and cloudy sky. As the frontal boundary
moves across the region late this afternoon/early evening, drier
air will move into the region with an erosion of the clouds and
fog. Sky will become mostly clear by early Monday morning.

For Monday, surface ridging will produce dry conditions until the
evening hours. There will be increasing high and mid-level clouds.

For Monday evening through Tuesday, a northern stream short-wave
diving into the central/southern plains will phase with a short
stream jet energy across the lower Mississippi valley. Strong jet
dynamics will move across the region during the morning hours
enhancing the fronto-genetic forcing along a boundary over the
region. Widespread rain with amounts from 1/2-3/4 inch southwest Virginia/northeast Tennessee to 1 to 1 1/2 inches across the
Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina.

REFS and RRFS-a show a pocket of freezing rain is likely near the
northwest North Carolina/northeast Tennessee stateline. The
communities of Trade, Mountain City, Shadey Valley may experience
a period of icing early Tuesday morning. Possibly effecting
eastern sections of Russell and Washington county as well.

Another impact is a possible mountain wave high wind event across
the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills early Tuesday
morning. HREF and REFS probabilities show decent chance of 40-45
mph gusts.

As the system moves east, deterministic and ensemble probabilities
show the cold air advection changing rain to a wintry mix for the
northern Plateau into the higher elevations of southwest Virginia
and northeast/central sections of the far east Tennessee
mountains. Light snow/ice accumulations are possible, generally 1
inch or less of snow.

For Wednesday and Thursday, upper flow becomes more zonal with
surface ridging producing drier and milder conditions.

For Friday into next weekend, phasing of an another
northern/southern stream systems look plausible with widespread
rain. Colder air from wedging into the Carolinas may once again
produce a wintry mix across sections of southwest Virginia and
northeast Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Conditions will be improving at all sites over the next few hours
as a front moves through, followed by a drier air mass. A return
to VFR conditions is expected at all sites by 06Z, along with a
shift of winds to a northerly direction. VFR conditions persist
through tomorrow, although low VFR to MVFR cigs may return to CHA
near the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 50 39 47 / 0 60 100 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 49 38 45 / 0 40 100 80
Oak Ridge, TN 25 47 37 43 / 0 40 100 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 49 36 43 / 0 10 100 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

180
FXUS64 KMRX 011135
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
635 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and widespread
rain to the area tonight through Tuesday. Far northeast
mountains, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia,
may begin as freezing rain Tuesday night. Minor impacts
possible.


- A changeover to sleet and then snow will occur Tuesday morning
into afternoon across some of our northern areas. Limited
accumulations at most. Little to no impacts.

- Dry Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances increasing
once again Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Today, surface ridging will produce dry conditions until the
evening hours. Mostly sunny early, with increasing high and mid-
level clouds through the day.

For tonight through Tuesday, a northern stream short- wave will
dive into the central/southern plains and will phase with a short
stream jet energy across the lower Mississippi valley. This will
result in strong jet dynamics that will enhancing the fronto-
genetic forcing along a boundary over the region.

Rain:

The HREF ensemble means show between 0.5 and 0.75 inches of
rain across northeast TN and southwest VA and 0.75 to 1 inch across
the southern TN valley and southwest NC. The REFS means show similar
values across our northeastern areas but lower amounts, around 0.5
to 0.75, across the southern areas. Overall, I'd expect a high
chance that most areas see at least 0.5 inches and a moderate chance
to see 0.75 inches. Some isolated locations could see around 1 to
1.25 inches.

Winter:

The REFS and HREF both a show that a pocket of freezing rain
is likely near the northwest North Carolina/northeast Tennessee
state line. The communities of Trade, Mountain City, and Shadey
Valley may experience a period of icing from roughly 10 PM tonight
through 7 AM Tuesday morning. Possibly effecting eastern sections
of Russell and Washington county as well. Freezing rain amounts
from a few hundredths of an inch up to a tenth of an inch are
expected. Minor impacts are possible, especially across elevated
surfaces such as bridges and overpasses.

As the system moves east, and colder air builds in from the
northwest, deterministic and ensemble probabilities continue to
show rain changing to sleet, then snow, Tuesday morning into early
afternoon. This is mainly across the northern Plateau, along the
TN/KY state line, and portions of southwest VA and the far northeast
east Tennessee mountains. Light snow accumulations are possible,
generally 1 inch or less. The bulk of the precip will be done by
Tuesday afternoon but light snowshowers will likely linger across
the east TN mountains Tuesday night due to orographic upslope flow.
Little to no impacts expected from the snow.

Wind:

This system will bring another round of gusty winds, and a
probable low-end mountain wave, across the east TN mountains and
foothills. Models are showing borderline Wind Advisory criteria.
There is a moderate to high chance that a few isolated locations
see wind gusts from 40 to 45 mph. The question is, how widespread
will the advisory level gusts be. For this reason, will hold off
on issuing a Wind Advisory with this forecast package until
another round of Hi-Res model data comes in. The most likely
timeframe for these higher winds would be from 00Z Tuesday through
12Z Tuesday.

For Wednesday and Thursday, upper flow becomes more zonal with
surface ridging producing drier and milder conditions.

For Friday into next weekend, phasing of an another
northern/southern stream systems look plausible with widespread
rain. Colder air from wedging into the Carolinas may once again
produce a wintry mix across sections of southwest Virginia and
northeast Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the first half of the TAF
cycle. Increasing low level clouds and rain chances are expected
late this evening into the overnight period, generally around
2Z-6Z timeframe. MVFR to IFR cigs will become predominant
alongside reduced visibility the activity spreads across the
region. A southerly LLJ will also amplify across the region during
this time frame. Have included a period of LLWS as latest
soundings suggest amplified flow as low as 925mb will promote
LLWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 40 46 27 / 40 100 40 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 38 45 26 / 20 100 80 0
Oak Ridge, TN 47 37 43 25 / 20 100 60 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 36 43 24 / 0 100 90 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

300
FXUS64 KMRX 011830
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Gusty mountain winds and widespread rain arrive tonight through
Tuesday morning. Far northeast mountains, including higher
elevations of southwest Virginia, may begin as light freezing
rain tonight. Minimal to no localized impacts expected. Only a
cold rain expected for most areas.

- A changeover to sleet and then snow will occur Tuesday morning
into afternoon across higher elevations of East Tennessee and
southwest Virginia. Limited accumulations at most. Little to no
impacts.

- Dry Wednesday, precipitation chances increasing late Thursday
into next weekend with multiple systems. Light precipitation
amounts probable.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 126 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Issued a Wind Advisory for Blount, Sevier, Cocke, Greene, Unicoi,
and Carter mountain zones for low-end mountain wave winds tonight.
850mb LLJ will be around 50 kt with a favorable pressure gradient
for mountain wave winds across the mountains. The HRRR is picking
up on this and showing 40-45 mph gusts in the Smokies and up to
50mph gusts near Camp Creek in Greene County. The primary timing
will correspond to the axis of max winds within the LLJ between
04z and 11z overnight into early Tuesday morning; therefore, the
Wind Advisory will be in effect for the aforementioned mountain
zones between 11pm and 6am tonight.

JB

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

A strong shortwave trough moves east across the Great Plains this
evening and tonight with an upper-level dual-jet structure
developing across the region with strong, widespread upper-level
diffluence and ascent across the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachians. The 850mb southerly LLJ will increase in response to
this ascent with a warm nose developing around 5-7k ft. Most of
our lower elevations will be above freezing with temperatures in
the mid to upper 30s, but localized mountain valleys and higher
elevations along the TN/NC state line and into southwest Virginia
may see precipitation begin as light sleet or freezing rain
tonight. The most likely areas to see a trace to a few hundredths
of an inch of ice before the changeover to rain will be in the
mountain communities near Laurel Creek, Forge Creek, and Brushy
Fork in eastern Johnson County, TN near the TN/NC line. Minimal
to no impacts are expected for most areas. As temperatures warm
within southerly flow, all areas in our forecast area are
expected to be predominantly a cold rain.

This system shifts east of the region by mid-morning Tuesday with
northerly flow and steady or falling temperatures during the day.
Some minor snow accumulation is possible across the higher
elevations of the East Tennessee and southwest Virginia mountains,
and perhaps some localized spots along the plateau near the TN/KY
state line. However, localized accumulation would likely only be
a dusting to one-half inch, and no impacts are expected.

Drier air arrives by Tuesday night. Patchy black ice could be
possible in areas that do not fully dry out, but the dry air and
wind should evaporate most moisture on surfaces. High pressure and
cooler air brings cool, clear conditions to the region on
Wednesday.

Chance probabilities of precipitation arrive by late week into the
weekend as a quick moving cold front and southerly low pressure
system approaches our area. Moisture is limited, but some
increased clouds on Thursday afternoon and Friday is expected. At
this time, this is most likely an all light rain event for most
locations. There is a chance for some wintry mix of rain and/or
snow across the higher terrain of the mountains. Details are
uncertain and forecast confidence in precipitation probabilities,
amounts, and types if fairly low on Friday into Saturday. There is
considerable uncertainty with whether these systems will remain
weak and separate or phase with a resultant stronger low pressure
system.

A quick moving northerly stream shortwave may impact the region on
Sunday or Monday, but details remain uncertain. At the very least,
minimal precipitation accumulation is expected with these likely moisture-starved systems.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions this afternoon with lowering cigs during the
evening as moisture increases from south to north. MVFR conditions
deteriorate rapidly to IFR overnight across the region. Some LLWS
is possible during the overnight hours with light winds near the
surface and southerly 40 to 50 kt winds at about 5k ft.
Precipitation exits the region by the end of the forecast period
with gradually improving MVFR conditions by mid-day Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 45 27 50 / 100 40 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 44 26 47 / 100 70 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 38 43 25 46 / 100 60 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 42 24 44 / 100 90 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...JB


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

200
FXUS64 KMRX 012308 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
608 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Gusty mountain winds and widespread rain arrive tonight through
Tuesday morning. Far northeast mountains, including higher
elevations of southwest Virginia, may begin as light freezing
rain tonight. Minimal to no localized impacts expected. Only a
cold rain expected for most areas.

- A changeover to sleet and then snow will occur Tuesday morning
into afternoon across higher elevations of East Tennessee and
southwest Virginia. Limited accumulations at most. Little to no
impacts.

- Dry Wednesday, precipitation chances increasing late Thursday
into next weekend with multiple systems. Light precipitation
amounts probable.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 126 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Issued a Wind Advisory for Blount, Sevier, Cocke, Greene, Unicoi,
and Carter mountain zones for low-end mountain wave winds tonight.
850mb LLJ will be around 50 kt with a favorable pressure gradient
for mountain wave winds across the mountains. The HRRR is picking
up on this and showing 40-45 mph gusts in the Smokies and up to
50mph gusts near Camp Creek in Greene County. The primary timing
will correspond to the axis of max winds within the LLJ between
04z and 11z overnight into early Tuesday morning; therefore, the
Wind Advisory will be in effect for the aforementioned mountain
zones between 11pm and 6am tonight.

JB

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

A strong shortwave trough moves east across the Great Plains this
evening and tonight with an upper-level dual-jet structure
developing across the region with strong, widespread upper-level
diffluence and ascent across the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachians. The 850mb southerly LLJ will increase in response to
this ascent with a warm nose developing around 5-7k ft. Most of
our lower elevations will be above freezing with temperatures in
the mid to upper 30s, but localized mountain valleys and higher
elevations along the TN/NC state line and into southwest Virginia
may see precipitation begin as light sleet or freezing rain
tonight. The most likely areas to see a trace to a few hundredths
of an inch of ice before the changeover to rain will be in the
mountain communities near Laurel Creek, Forge Creek, and Brushy
Fork in eastern Johnson County, TN near the TN/NC line. Minimal
to no impacts are expected for most areas. As temperatures warm
within southerly flow, all areas in our forecast area are
expected to be predominantly a cold rain.

This system shifts east of the region by mid-morning Tuesday with
northerly flow and steady or falling temperatures during the day.
Some minor snow accumulation is possible across the higher
elevations of the East Tennessee and southwest Virginia mountains,
and perhaps some localized spots along the plateau near the TN/KY
state line. However, localized accumulation would likely only be
a dusting to one-half inch, and no impacts are expected.

Drier air arrives by Tuesday night. Patchy black ice could be
possible in areas that do not fully dry out, but the dry air and
wind should evaporate most moisture on surfaces. High pressure and
cooler air brings cool, clear conditions to the region on
Wednesday.

Chance probabilities of precipitation arrive by late week into the
weekend as a quick moving cold front and southerly low pressure
system approaches our area. Moisture is limited, but some
increased clouds on Thursday afternoon and Friday is expected. At
this time, this is most likely an all light rain event for most
locations. There is a chance for some wintry mix of rain and/or
snow across the higher terrain of the mountains. Details are
uncertain and forecast confidence in precipitation probabilities,
amounts, and types if fairly low on Friday into Saturday. There is
considerable uncertainty with whether these systems will remain
weak and separate or phase with a resultant stronger low pressure
system.

A quick moving northerly stream shortwave may impact the region on
Sunday or Monday, but details remain uncertain. At the very least,
minimal precipitation accumulation is expected with these likely moisture-starved systems.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Rain will spread across East TN through the night. Initially,
light rain with VFR conditions is expected, with a gradual
lowering of vis/cigs to MVFR as rain intensifies, with periods of
IFR vis/cigs at times during the peak rainfall, mainly between
09-15Z. A cold front will cross the area in the morning, between
12-18Z, shifting winds to a W to N direction and ending rain and
vis reductions. Some improvement in cigs will follow a couple
hours later in the afternoon, but still at MVFR levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 45 27 50 / 100 40 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 44 26 47 / 100 70 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 38 43 25 46 / 100 60 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 42 24 44 / 100 90 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

396
FXUS64 KMRX 021109
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
609 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Wind Advisory remains in effect across the east TN mountains and
foothills through 6 AM EST this morning for gusts up to 45 mph.

- Light freezing rain probable over the next few hours across the
far northeast TN mountains, including higher elevations of southwest
Virginia. A change over to rain is expected before sunrise. Minimal
to no localized impacts expected.

- A changeover to sleet and then snow still looks likely later this
morning across the northern cumberland Plateau, and the higher
elevations of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Limited
accumulations at most. Little to no impacts.

- Dry Wednesday, precipitation chances increasing late Thursday
into next weekend with multiple systems. Light precipitation
amounts probable..

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Now Through This afternoon:

Rain:

Rain showers are moving across the region with the advancing
shortwave. The bulk of the precipitation will exit by this
afternoon. Storm total QPF looks similar to the last issuance,
with most areas averaging between 0.5 and 0.75 inches. A few
isolated areas may see up to 1 inch.

Wind:

A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM EST this morning for
wind gusts to around 50 mph in the advisory locations, east TN
mountains and foothills. The latest observation from Cove Mountain
shows 52 MPH as of a few hours ago. The advisory level gusts
should start to decline after 6 AM as this is when the 850 mb jet
start to weaken across the area. However, wind gusts from 20 to 30
mph will still remain across the east TN mountains through the
day.

Freezing Rain:

According to the Hi-Res models, freezing rain is probable at the
current hour across the far northeast TN mountains. The most likely
areas to see a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of ice, before
the changeover to rain by sunrise, will be in the mountain
communities near Laurel Creek, Forge Creek, and Brushy Fork in
eastern Johnson County, TN near the TN/NC line. Minimal to no
impacts are expected for most areas.

Sleet/Snow:

As the shortwave moves east later this morning, temperatures will
drop as colder air moving in from the northwest on the backside of
this system. The HRRR, REFS, HREF, still show a transition from
rain, to sleet, to snow. This occurs between 7 AM and 10 AM this
morning, but also as moisture is exiting. The latest HRRR runs are
less bullish than previous ones, and show very little sleet/snow
for any location in our area. If we do see this brief transition,
it will occur in northern Scott Count TN, along the TN/KY state
line, and into portions of southwest VA (most likely Wise County). Accumulations will be little to none and no impacts are expected.
At best, there may be an isolated report of up to one half inch
of snow but most areas won't even see a trace.

Some light snow showers are then possible later today and this
evening across the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains
as northwest flow takes over. Little to no accumulation is expected
during this time and no impacts.

Rest of the forecast:

Patchy black ice could be possible tonight in areas that do not
fully dry out, but the dry air and wind should evaporate most
moisture on surfaces. High pressure and cooler air brings cool,
clear conditions to the region on Wednesday.

Chance probabilities of precipitation arrive by late week into the
weekend as a quick moving cold front and southerly low pressure
system approaches our area. Moisture is limited, but some increased
clouds on Thursday afternoon and Friday is expected. At this time,
this is most likely an all light rain event for most locations.
There is a chance for some wintry mix of rain and/or snow across the
higher terrain of the mountains. Details are uncertain and forecast
confidence in precipitation probabilities, amounts, and types if
fairly low on Friday into Saturday. There is considerable
uncertainty with whether these systems will remain weak and separate
or phase with a resultant stronger low pressure system.

A quick moving northerly stream shortwave may impact the region on
Sunday or Monday, but details remain uncertain. At the very least,
minimal precipitation accumulation is expected with these likely moisture-starved systems.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Poor aviation conditions will continue over the next couple of
hours with TRI, currently VFR, expected to drop to IFR and MVFR by
sunrise as rain intensifies. For CHA and TYS, further reductions
beyond what is being seen are unlikely with visibilities improving
in the next 2 to 3 hours. Ceilings, however, will be slower to
improve back to MVFR by later this morning. MVFR ceilings look
likely to continue throughout the day with a gradual shift to
northwesterly winds. Some improvements after sunset are forecast
at CHA by late afternoon, but persistent MVFR is likely at TYS and
TRI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 27 50 33 / 50 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 27 47 31 / 80 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 44 25 46 29 / 70 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 25 44 27 / 100 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

439
FXUS64 KMRX 022352
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
652 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Dry weather next two days before increasing precipitation
chances late Thursday into Friday.

- Low to medium chances for light snowfall across southwest
Virginia Friday.

- Very low probability of rainfall this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

A dreary day is locked in for the rest of today, with HREF
depicting perhaps some holes in the low stratus deck as northwest
flow cascades over the Plateau into the valley. The good news is
the rain has dissipated, and while light drizzle is present on
radar, not observing any either here or at regional airports.
Tonight will be colder but likely still low level clouds hanging
around. Left fog out after looking at model soundings, but higher
elevations may see freezing fog as they interact with low clouds.

A short break in the wet weather for the next 36 to 48 hours or so
before a coastal low slides across the Gulf and southeastern
states, while a powerful 150 knot upper jet exists to our north.
Upper level forcing will create light precipitation late Thursday
through Friday, with some questions about p-type existing,
especially Friday morning over far northeastern Tennessee into
southwest Virginia. The Euro brings saturation quicker Friday
morning and has a narrow window of snow across southwest Virginia,
but the GFS is drier then. NAM depicts a solution closer to the
Euro, but the lowest 2 km of atmosphere is very very close to the
0C isotherm, small changes either direction may produce a short
all snow bout or wintry mix before precipitation concludes later
on Friday. LREF probabilities are a similar mixed bag. For now
keeping with the NBM's advertisement of up to a half inch of snow,
with the Euro more aggressive.

Over the weekend low probabilities of precipitation, most likely
rain if anything, exist as a couple of vorticity lobes pivot
through the various jet streams as an upper trough digs into the
area. Another weak shortwave with additional precipitation is
shown in both Euro and GFS for next Monday. Between the active
pattern and the couple of troughs, temperatures will remain a
December gloom and chill through the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR CIG will dominate much of the first part of the TAF period.
It is forecast to clear/lift from south to north, so CHA will
improve to VFR sooner than the others. Fog possibility was left
from the 18Z issuance at TYS and TRI. Once day breaks on
Wednesday, high pressure conditions can be expected with very
light/variable winds, and mostly sunny skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 50 32 49 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 47 30 46 / 10 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 25 46 29 45 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 44 26 43 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

378
FXUS64 KMRX 031118
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Dry weather today and Thursday before increasing precipitation
chances late Thursday into Friday.

- Moderate chances for light snowfall across extreme northeast TN
and southwest Virginia early Friday morning. Low probability
light freezing rain/wintry mix central TN valley.
Minor impacts possible.

- Very low probability of rainfall this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low-level moisture still locked in across the region. Though the
moisture is shallow, NAM soundings show moisture up to around
-8 to -10 degrees Celsius. This aligns with the reports from earlier
this evening of a few light flurries/snow showers across our
northern areas. Because moisture is lingering, made an increase to
sky cover through the rest of the night and late morning. The NBM
wanted to clear things out way too fast. Sunny skies by this
afternoon. Then, dry weather through Thursday with below normal
temperatures.

As we have been discussing, we are still watching an incoming system
on Thursday night into Friday. We still aren't in range of the Hi-
Res models, but the rest of the model data suggests moderate
probabilities of some light snow up across extreme northeast TN and
into portions of southwest VA, as well as portions of the east TN
mountains. LREF probs from DESI show between a 40 to 60% probability
of seeing at least 0.5 inches of snow across these areas. The higher-
end probs (60s) are along the TN/NC border up in northeast TN and
into the eastern portions of Washington County, VA. Whereas
locations between Rogersville and Tri-Cities are more in the 30 to
40% prob range. Upping the snow amounts to 1" drops the
probabilities to around 40% for extreme northeast TN and eastern
Washington County, VA. LREF Probs for trace amounts of freezing
rain or light wintery mix across the central TN valley is around
30%. Areas south of Knoxville should be all rain. The opportunity
for any snow accumulation across northeastern areas will be short-
lived though. Increasing southerly flow will bring about warming
temperatures, transitioning any frozen precip over to rain by late morning/early afternoon.

Low confidence forecast through the rest of the period. Some models
show a dry Saturday, while the latest NAM and ECMWF keep light
showers in place. Latest NBM keeps slight chance POPs in through
Saturday. Slight chance/chance Pops then remain in place through the
rest of the period due to an active pattern across the U.S. This
makes it difficult to pinpoint exactly when and where any one system
will be moving through the the flow. Thus, this is why the NBM is
hanging onto Pops beyond the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Based on the latest trends and latest data, MVFR ceilings are now
expected to last longer into the day than the previous issuance.
CHA is still likely to improve first by around noon. The other two
sites, however, could remain MVFR through the afternoon. Winds
will be fairly light and shifting to be more westerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 31 49 37 / 0 0 10 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 29 45 33 / 0 0 10 60
Oak Ridge, TN 46 28 45 32 / 0 0 0 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 26 43 29 / 0 0 0 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

274
FXUS64 KMRX 032322
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
622 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Dry weather today and Thursday before increasing precipitation
chances Thursday evening into Friday.

- Moderate chances for light snowfall across extreme northeast TN
and southwest Virginia early Friday morning. Minor impacts are
possible. Elsewhere, will get rain Thursday night into Friday.

- Very low probability of rainfall this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow or slight troughing will be
over the region through the weekend as a big, broad trough dominates
the Central and Eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will be
over the region through Thursday. Thursday night into Friday, a Gulf
Low moving eastward along the Gulf Coast will bring overrunning
moisture into the region. Rain is expected for most of the region
Thursday night into Friday. Temperature profiles support light snow
Thursday night into Friday morning for Southwest Virginia and
extreme Northeast Tennessee. Freezing rain probabilities are low in
SW Virginia and extreme NE Tennessee and model soundings show a deep
enough cold layer to support snow. By mid Friday morning temps will
warm enough for a changeover back to rain. The lower elevations may
get up to half an inch accumulation and the higher elevations may
get up to an inch of accumulation. Minor travel impacts will be
possible during the morning commute Friday but will be confined to
SW Virginia and extreme NE Tennessee. The Tri-Cities area may see a
few flakes but little to no accumulation is expected there. HREF
guidance through 12Z Friday have snow totals below one inch. The
Tennessee Valley won't see any frozen precip with this system. HREF
guidance doesn't cover this whole event yet so hopefully the next
forecast cycle will bring more confidence.

Rain chances will be very low for the weekend and into early next
week. One or more shortwaves may move through the pattern but
moisture will be limited. Rain or possibly even a brief snow will be
possible at some point but there is too much uncertainty to nail
down specifics at this time. Widespread travel impacts are unlikely
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Will see varying amounts of mainly high and mid level clouds, with
VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Winds will
generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 49 37 48 / 0 20 90 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 46 35 45 / 0 10 80 80
Oak Ridge, TN 27 46 34 43 / 0 10 80 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 43 31 42 / 0 0 70 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

543
FXUS64 KMRX 041106
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
606 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Dry weather today before increasing precipitation chances tonight
into Friday.

- Probabilities for minor impacts from ice and snow are trending
upwards across the northern Cumberland plateau, southwest VA and
extreme northeast TN for tonight into Friday morning

- Very low probability of rainfall this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Dry today with continued below normal temperatures. Increasing
precipitation chances tonight into Friday morning. The good news is
that the latest HREF probs mostly align with the previous forecast.
The bad news, the last two runs of the HRRR are well above the HREF
means in terms of snowfall amounts. This makes for a low confidence
forecast.

Latest HREF guidance shows probs for at least 0.5 inches across
southwest VA are in the 30 to 50% range. Probs for at least 0.5
inches for extreme northeast TN are generally from 50 to 70%. There
are also low probs, 10 to 20%, of at least 0.5 inches across the
northern Cumberland Plateau and areas along and near the TN/KY state
line. Upping the prob amounts to 1 inch yield much lower values,
around 30%, but for very isolated locations for both southwest VA
and extreme northeast TN.

The LREF members shows slightly higher prob values, and with more
spatial coverage, for the 0.5 and 1 inch prob values. LREF shows
moderate probs of 1 to 2 inches across southwest VA and into extreme
northeast TN. The REFS output aligns fairly well with the LREF
ensemble probs.

Then we have the HRRR. The latest two runs of the HRRR show even
higher values than what the REFS and LREF ensembles means suggests.
The HRRR wants to paint a solid 2 inches in across the northern
Plateau, and 3 to 4 inches in across southwest VA and extreme
northeast TN.

Because of all this, uncertainty in snowfall amounts is high. These
higher end amounts would result in travel impacts while the lower
HREF amounts suggest little to no impacts. With this forecast
package, have trended snowfall amounts slightly upward, above NBM,
based on latest model data and trends. In addition to the snow, NBM
also painting in some light icing across these same areas. Please
stay tuned to the forecast as the snowfall forecast will likely
continue to change given the current variability. Please plan ahead
for potential impacts with this system.

Areas from Knoxville and south should remain all rain through the
event. The bulk of the precip will have ended by Friday afternoon,
but a few light showers may linger into the evening hours. NBM still
wants to hold on to some slight chance POPs for Saturday and Sunday
but it seems warranted so will leave them in the forecast.

Rain chances continue into next week as an active pattern will be in
place across the country. As of now, Tuesday look like it should be
dry though and is most likely to be the nicest day of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Freezing fog has developed at TRI and is likely to continue for at
least the next 2 hours. There are also low clouds or elevated fog
around CHA near 200 feet AGL, but VFR was maintained. Otherwise,
clouds around 5,000 to 10,000 feet AGL and light northeasterly
winds will persist through the day. Throughout the evening, cloud
heights will fall as rain moves into the region by midnight. For
TRI, this rain could be mixed with snow or other precipitation
types. MVFR conditions were added to the end of the TAFs, but
further reductions are likely later on.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 38 49 39 / 20 90 40 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 35 44 38 / 10 90 60 20
Oak Ridge, TN 45 34 44 35 / 10 90 40 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 32 42 35 / 0 90 60 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

642
FXUS64 KMRX 042340
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
640 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Light wintry precipitation expected tonight over our VA counties
and areas in TN near the KY and VA state lines. Winter Weather
Advisories have been posted to account for this.

- Confidence is fairly high for timing and accumulations in
Virginia, with medium confidence in northeastern Tennessee.

- Some mixed precipitation types could briefly occur as far south
as the I-40 corridor, but predominant precip type should be rain
and no accumulations or impacts are expected that far south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

The main forecast item of concern is the next 12-24 hours and the
possibility of some light wintry precipitation set to affect our
forecast area tonight into Friday morning.

Synoptically speaking, broad west southwesterly flow is in place
across the central and eastern CONUS, anchored by a weakening closed
low off the Baja peninsula in the west. Cold temps over the midwest
and Great Lakes regions, reinforced by troughing over eastern
Canada, along with a shortwave ejecting from southern plains, are
driving a strong WSW-ENE oriented upper jet from the Ozarks into
Kentucky. This jet and shortwave interaction will produce some light precipitation tonight and into Friday morning across the forecast
area. Forecast soundings support a mix of precipitation types,
ranging from all, or mostly, snow in our Virginia counties to a
mixed bag in TN from the northern Cumberland plateau eastward
towards Hawkins and Johnson counties. Any further south than that
(places like Morristown, Jefferson City, Dandridge, Knoxville, etc),
nearer the I-40 corridor, there may be some snow mix in shortly
after the onset of precipitation tonight but it should be primarily
rain and certainly no accumulations are expected.

As for accumulations, deterministic guidance supports about an inch
of snow in our VA counties and a dusting to half an inch in northern Tennessee. However, probabilistic guidance paints a different
picture, with HREF showing upwards of 80 percent odds of GTE 2
inches of snow in our VA counties and even 50 percent odds of GTE
3". REFS output isn't much different, showing 70 percent odds of GTE
2" over an albeit smaller footprint of our VA counties, and even
some 40 percent odds of GTE 3" totals. Forecast soundings support
this ptype forecast so my confidence level in VA is fairly high.

The transition zone in northern TN is where my confidence is much
lower. The area from roughly the TN/VA line, to a line from roughly
Wartburg to Morristown to Johnson city, will feature mixed
precipitation and will changeover to rain at some point tonight. The
question really is what ptype wins out the longest and what, if any,
impacts there wind up being. Current guidance depicts at least some
chance of freezing rain and resulting light glazing, along with a
dusting to half an inch of snow tonight for areas mainly within a
county or so of the TN/KY/VA state line areas. Much further south
than that and while there could be mixed ptypes, temperatures will be
just warm enough to preclude any type of accumulations or impacts.
By the I-40 corridor, it should be all rain tonight. All wintry
precip comes to an end between daybreak and mid morning tomorrow,
holding on the longest in northern Wise and Russell counties, as
warming southwesterly flow aloft moves in.

West southwesterly flow continues aloft heading into the weekend,
with surface high pressure keeping dry conditions in place Saturday.
Another disturbance moves through Sunday into Monday for more
chances of light rain. There could be some wintry precip with that
one Sun night as temperatures cool off, but confidence is low on
both occurrence and amounts/impacts at the moment due to
disagreements amongst guidance sources.

Otherwise, dry conditions last much of the remainder of the period,
along with below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Deteriorating flight conditions to come in the next couple of
hours with lower CIG with -RA mainly for the south and a mix from
TYS north. Bulk of precipitation expected during the overnight
hours. Closer to sunrise, precipitation will exit to the east and
northeast. IFR to MVFR CIG forecast to remain the rest of the TAF
period even after the departure of precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 49 39 51 / 100 20 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 45 37 49 / 90 40 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 34 45 36 49 / 90 30 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 42 36 46 / 90 50 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for Anderson-
Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-
Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan-Unicoi.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for Johnson.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for Lee-Russell-
Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

694
FXUS64 KMRX 051118
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Winter Weather Advisories continue for light snow/sleet
accumulations in SW VA and NE TN mountains.

- Drying aloft should end measurable precip a little after
sunrise, but drizzle may linger until noon.

- Dry Saturday, rain returns Sunday with a possible transition to
snow in northern sections Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Overall, the previous forecast is handling the situation pretty
well, considering the mix p-types across the area. Sleet has been
more prevalent than models projected, but the placement of the
Advisory has been nicely aligned with the rain-sleet-snow transition
area based on reports we have been receiving. Radar is showing
precip coverage being more scattered in western sections as dry air
aloft builds in and cuts off the dendrite growth potential. Parts of
SW VA may continue to see several more hours of snow/sleet with some additional light accumulations of ~1 inch in Wise and Russell
counties where surface temps have been near to below freezing,
possibly up to 2 in higher elevations like High Knob, so the Winter
Weather Advisory will continue. The Plateau counties will likely be
able to be canceled before the 12Z end time, and additional
accumulations there should not be very significant. Low level
moisture will remain in place through most of the day, with a slow,
gradual scouring from the top down, suggesting a light drizzle may
linger into the early afternoon.

A westerly flow aloft and surface high pressure keeps dry conditions
in place Saturday. Another disturbance brings a chance of rain back
into the forecast on Sunday. There could be some wintry precip
Sunday night as cold advection sets in, but confidence is low on the
depth of moisture available and the timing of the cold air arrival
with adequate moisture to produce any measurable snowfall.

Broad troughing over the eastern Conus will persist through the rest
of the forecast period, with some disturbances moving across our
area, but with limited moisture. A potential stronger shortwave may
bring better precip chances in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Overall, poor aviation conditions are expected to continue with
all sites reporting IFR to LIFR as rain. TRI is most likely to
have at least some periods of MVFR this morning with CHA and TYS
staying down as rain exits the area. CHA and TYS are then
expected to improve to low-end MVFR by the afternoon with TRI
then becoming more IFR than the others. Overnight tonight, further
reductions to IFR or LIFR are increasingly likely but were left
out of the TAF for the time being. Winds will be light and
variable at all sites through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 37 51 35 / 10 0 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 37 49 32 / 20 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 45 35 48 32 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 36 45 29 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Anderson-
Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-
Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan-Unicoi.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Johnson.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

745
FXUS64 KMRX 052323
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
623 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Occasional drizzle could continue in the northern TN valley
through this evening. Otherwise, dry but dreary conditions will
be the norm through the first half of Sunday.

- Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light
precipitation. Some low elevation snow could occur in the
north, but accumulations and impacts should be negligible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

A northern branch jet will remain situated from the Arklatex region,
ENE through our forecast area and into the mid-Atlantic seaboard
through Saturday. With saturated low levels lingering in the
northern half of our CWA through at least late tonight, I wouldn't
be surprised if areas of drizzle continue to show up from time to
time through late tonight. Otherwise, the forecast through Saturday
should be largely dry, though quite cloudy.

The next chance of precipitation looks to be Sun night into Mon
morning. We'll be sandwiched between a southern stream
disturbance ejecting ENE from the southern plains along the
subtropical jet, and a stronger shortwave over the Great Lakes
associated with the polar jet during this time. There's no strong
surface cyclogenesis in the southeast so any precip with this
system will be driven by jet dynamics aloft and should be light in
nature. There's some indication that precip could miss us to the
north and south, focused with stronger jet support on either side
of us. However, model soundings show at least some moisture
present and higher resolution models do show some light precip.
Kept the high NBM PoPs because I think the likelihood that we get
something more than a trace of precip is pretty high, but this
will certainly be a high PoP/low QPF scenario. Regarding the
chances of winter weather, I did leave some snow in the forecast
for low elevations but certainly don't believe there will be
impactful snowfall. Between the low QPF and the soundings showing
the potential for more of a seeder-feeder snowfall setup, there's
very low chances of anything sticking, much less causing impacts.
For the higher elevations of northeast TN, the NW flow behind this
shortwave could result in a couple of inches through Monday
evening but that's a low confidence part of the forecast right
now.

Tue and Wed look dry, but the next system arrives Wed night into
Thu, with better chances for widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Will see low clouds/fog overnight into Saturday morning. MVFR to
IFR conditions will be common, and LIFR (or lower) conditions
will be possible especially at TRI later tonight into early
Saturday. Conditions will be improving to VFR Saturday afternoon.
Winds will generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 52 34 55 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 49 31 51 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 34 48 30 50 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 45 28 49 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

723
FXUS64 KMRX 061109
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
609 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Cloudy conditions persist through the morning, with some sunshine
breaking in through in the afternoon for some areas.

- Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light
precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but
accumulations and impacts should be negligible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low level moisture remains trapped under a strong inversion and
against the mountains in a westerly low to midlevel flow. Clouds
will remain in place through the night, until the passage of a
midlevel shortwave trough this afternoon. Most of the area should
have mostly sunny skies for a couple hours before sunset.

The next chance of precipitation arrives Sunday evening and
continues through Monday morning. Forcing with this system will be
mainly provided by a mid/upper level shortwave trough. There's no
strong surface cyclogenesis in the southeast with this system, and
the wind field through the lower and midlevels is fairly weak. With
weak forcing, any precip should be light in nature. The latest NBM
PoP appear to have trended downward a bit, as the area of heaviest
rainfall passes to our south. On Monday morning, around 09Z or so,
cold advection develops and temperatures begin to drop behind the
850 mb trough and a weak surface front, allowing for a change to
snow. This will be mainly in SW VA and the East TN mountains, but
outside the highest elevations, any snow accumulations will be light
and not likely to be impactful. For the higher elevations of
northeast TN, the NW flow behind this shortwave could result in a
inch or two accumulation through Monday evening.

Tuesday will be dry with mostly sunny conditions in a NW flow
pattern. Temperatures will get a bit warmer on Wednesday, into the
50s, with a slight increase in clouds with a dry shortwave trough
passage. A Clipper system brings a chance of rain on Thursday and
Friday, although model agreement is poor with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Gradually improving aviation conditions are expected with TYS
already seeing some brief periods of VFR. MVFR remains likely at
CHA and TYS until around noon with TRI keeping MVFR further into
the afternoon. By later today, some clouds around 3,000 feet will
likely remain but with less ceilings. Winds will be light and
variable with a westerly to southwesterly direction favored.
Overnight, some fog potential exists but was left out of the TAFs
for the time being.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 33 53 41 / 0 0 10 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 30 51 38 / 0 0 10 50
Oak Ridge, TN 48 30 50 37 / 0 0 10 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 28 50 34 / 0 0 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

434
FXUS64 KMRX 062351 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
651 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Cloudy conditions persist for some this afternoon, with more
sunshine breaking in through in the afternoon for many.

- Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light
precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but
accumulations and impacts should be negligible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Currently some portions of the region are finally getting a chance
to see the sun, while others remain stuck under overcast skies with
moisture remaining trapped near the mountains and a weak shortwave
traversing through today. Still looks like most people should at
least get to see blue skies for a couple of hours before sunset, or
before clouds over Middle Tennessee move into the region.
Temperatures are able to creep back into the 50's for much of the
eastern Tennessee Valley on Sunday before our next system moves
through brining precipitation chances and cooler temperatures.

On Sunday night our next chance of precipitation moves in and
continues through Monday morning. This round of precipitation will
be aided by a midlevel shortwave, but no strong surface level
forcing is depicted by the models. Therefore, any precip should be
fairly light over the region. Guidance continues to suggest that the
heaviest precipitation stays south of the TN/NC state lines, but we
could definitely see some creep up into southeast TN and southwest
NC. By Monday morning cold air advection ramps up and temperatures
drop behind the low level trough with a weak surface boundary
developing, allowing for a switchover to snow for parts of our area.
This will be mainly in southwest VA and the eastern TN mountains,
but outside the highest elevations, any snow accumulations will be
light and not likely to be impactful. For the higher elevations of
northeast TN, the NW flow behind this shortwave could result in a
inch or two accumulation through Monday evening mainly along the
peaks of the mountains.

Generally zonal flow throughout the atmosphere through the middle of
the week with temperatures settling in around seasonal normals
before our next system moves in towards the end of the week into the
weekend. Looks like it will be fairly warm on the front end with a
big cooldown behind the low and front expected to move through
Thursday into Friday. We should see much colder temperatures behind
the front for the upcoming weekend... possibly dropping into the
teens for the weekend mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Expect low clouds and/or fog to develop across northern Georgia
later tonight and push northward into the KCHA area. Have
concerns this could develop across the entirety of the TN valley
but slightly lower dewpoints and the possibility of incoming high
clouds give me less confidence at KTYS and KTRI, so will limit
LIFR CIGS to KCHA tonight. All sites return to VFR levels by mid
morning. Afterwards, incoming system and associated rainfall
holds off until after 00z tomorrow evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 33 54 41 / 0 0 10 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 30 51 38 / 0 0 10 40
Oak Ridge, TN 48 30 50 37 / 0 0 10 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 28 49 33 / 0 0 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

418
FXUS64 KMRX 071127
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
627 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

- Cloudy conditions persist through the morning, with some sunshine
breaking in through in the afternoon for some areas.

- Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light
precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but
accumulations and impacts should be negligible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Fog has developed in parts of the area, and lowered visibilities are
expected to expand over the next few hours in southern sections.
Northern sections are likely to have more cloud cover based on
satellite trends, and should have less fog. With forecast lows in
the lower 30s to upper 20s, this could be freezing fog that could
cause some slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Through the day,
high and midlevel clouds will be increasing ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough that will bring rain in the evening.

Forcing for this precipitation will be driven mainly by a midlevel
shortwave trough, but no strong surface level forcing is depicted by
the models. Therefore, any precip should be fairly light over the
area. Measurable precip begins the area between 00Z and midnight as
the column moistens from the top down. By early Monday morning, cold
air advection ramps up and temperatures drop behind the low level
trough and a weak surface cold front, allowing for a transition to
snow for northern parts of our area. This will be mainly in
southwest VA and the eastern TN mountains, but outside the highest
elevations, any snow accumulations will be light and not likely to
be impactful. For the higher elevations of northeast TN, the NW flow
behind this shortwave that persists through Monday could result in a
inch or two accumulation through Monday evening, mainly along the
peaks of the mountains near the NC border. Amounts should stay under
Advisory criteria for populated areas.

Generally zonal flow throughout the atmosphere is expected through
the middle of the week, with temperatures warming a little (into the
50s for Wednesday) before our next system moves in towards the end
of the week. Temperatures appear to be fairly warm on the front end
with a big cooldown behind the low and front expected to move
through Thursday into Friday. We should see much colder temperatures
behind the front for the upcoming weekend, possibly dropping into
the teens for the weekend mornings with highs in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Dense freezing fog has developed at all 3 sites with aviation
conditions to LIFR or less. This is expected to persist for the
next couple of hours with improvements to IFR then MVFR ceilings
by later this morning. Currently, TRI is expected to improve back
to VFR the fastest with CHA and TYS possibly not recovering until
early afternoon. Then later this evening, MVFR ceilings will
likely move back into the area from the south and west as chances
for rain increase with CHA and TYS forecast to drop again. Winds
will be light and variable at all sites through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 41 48 29 / 10 40 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 39 43 28 / 10 40 30 0
Oak Ridge, TN 50 38 44 26 / 10 40 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 35 38 26 / 10 50 60 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Cherokee-
Clay.

TN...Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-
Campbell-Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-
Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-
Union-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

173
FXUS64 KMRX 071749
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1249 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

- Overnight expect precipitation to move in. Light snow
accumulations are expected, primarily across the higher
elevations of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for late tonight into
Monday. The Monday morning commute in these counties could be
impacted by accumulating snow, or reduced visibilities from
falling snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Primary forcing for precipitation will be associated with a midlevel
shortwave trough, with model guidance showing little in the way of
organized surface forcing. Therefore, precipitation amounts are
expected to remain light throughout the event. Measurable
precipitation should start generally between sunset and midnight as
the column slowly moistens closer to the surface. By early Monday
morning, cold air advection strengthens behind a weak low-level
trough and attendant surface cold front, resulting in falling
temperatures and a transition to snow across northern portions of
the forecast area. This transition will be most notable in southwest
Virginia and the eastern Tennessee mountains. Outside of the highest
terrain, accumulations will be fairly limited. In the higher
elevations of northeast Tennessee, persistent northwest flow in the
wake of the shortwave may yield localized accumulations of 1rCo3
inches through Monday evening, primarily along mountain peaks near
the North Carolina border.

While much of the counties look to see snowfall totals technically
remain below Advisory criteria, have opted to issue a Winter
Weather Advisory since the ridge lines could see up to 3
inches... In addition the Monday morning commute could very much
be impacted as light to (possibly at times) moderate snow is
coming down. This is a very low end advisory, but Monday morning
driving conditions are the main concern with this event.

A generally zonal flow regime is anticipated through midweek,
supporting modest warming with highs reaching the 50s by Wednesday.
The next synoptic system approaches late in the week, with
temperatures initially mild ahead of the front, followed by a
pronounced cold advection behind the low and frontal passage
Thursday into Friday. A much colder air mass is forecast to settle
in for the weekend, with morning lows potentially in the teens and
daytime highs limited to the 20s and 30s.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Low confidence forecast. Clouds are extremely stubborn to clear out
of KCHA, but should start to break up in the next couple of hours.
Cold rain moves in overnight and will likely drop conditions down
below MVFR categories, but low confidence on how far they drop with
some guidance going to VLIFR and others barely dipping below MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 50 29 52 / 40 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 44 28 50 / 40 30 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 38 45 27 48 / 30 20 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 40 27 44 / 50 80 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for Johnson-
Southeast Carter-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for Russell-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

202
FXUS64 KMRX 081140
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
640 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Precipitation moves in tonight, with light snow accumulations
expected across the higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and
southwest Virginia.

- A Winter Weather Advisory continues for late tonight into
Monday. The Monday morning commute in these counties could be
impacted by accumulating snow, or reduced visibilities from
falling snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

WV imagery shows a shortwave trough located over northern MS/West
TN. Precip ahead of this trough will spread across our area through
the night. Initially, low level temperatures indicate rain, except
for the highest mountain peaks above 5000 ft. A cold front is
located just to our west, and will start to push southeast late
tonight as high pressure builds toward the region from the Great
Lakes. As the column cools behind the front and the upper trough
moves overhead, there will be some saturation getting into the
dendrite growth zone along with falling surface temperatures,
allowing for some snow to fall in northern sections. This occurs
around 12-15Z. SW VA and the mountains of E TN will continue to see
light snow accumulations through the day, while there may be more of
a rain/snow mix in northern TN Valley locations, such as the Tri-
Cities area. Not much has changed with the model depictions of
likely snow accumulations - outside of the highest terrain,
accumulations will be fairly limited to less than 1 inch. In the
higher elevations of northeast Tennessee and SW VA, persistent
northwest flow through Monday in the wake of the shortwave may yield
localized accumulations of 1rCo3 inches through Monday evening,
primarily along mountain peaks near the North Carolina border. Snow
probs from the HREF are 80-90% chance for 2 or more inches, and the
NBM is around 50%. Therefore, the mountain zones down to Blount
County will be added to the Winter Weather Advisory. The timing of
the changeover to snow in the morning could impact the morning
commute in parts of SW VA and NE TN, with some roads getting covered
in the mountains by the end of the day.

No major changes to the rest of the forecast. A generally zonal flow
regime is anticipated through midweek, supporting modest warming
with highs reaching the 50s by Wednesday. The next synoptic system
approaches late in the week, with temperatures initially mild ahead
of the front, followed by a pronounced cold advection behind the low
and frontal passage Thursday into Friday. Precip chances with this
system appear to be trending down, and are mainly across our
northern sections; QPF is very light as well. A much colder air mass
is forecast to settle in for the weekend, with morning lows
potentially in the teens and daytime highs limited to the 20s and
30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Aviation conditions have largely deteriorated to MVFR or even IFR
across the region as rain continues to move through. CHA is MVFR
and is currently expected to stay mainly at that level. For TYS
and TRI, periods of IFR remain possible over the next several
hours. These chances extend longest for TRI because of rain
lingering longer into the afternoon. Winds will also gradually
increase from the north to northwesterly direction. A return to
VFR is currently anticipated by later this evening, but it's
possible for MVFR to remain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 28 51 36 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 44 27 49 37 / 40 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 44 26 47 36 / 30 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 25 43 30 / 90 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Russell-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

455
FXUS64 KMRX 082329
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
629 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Light precipitation continues across northeast Tennessee and
southwest Virginia. Additional minor accumulations of snowfall will
be possible into the early evening hours in the higher elevations.

- Cold morning temperatures expected over the upcoming weekend with sub-freezing temperatures likely area-wide and wind chills in the
teens for parts of northeast TN and southwest VA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Currently light precipitation is still ongoing across northeast
Tennessee and southwest Virginia. The majority of this precipitation
is coming down as very cold rain, but a few web cameras and surface observations are showing that temperatures are cold enough that
light flurries are mixed in with the rain. Not expecting very much
more snow for the rest of today, but some of the peaks of the East
Tennessee mountains could pick up almost another inch or so before
this shortwave finally exits the region heading into tonight. Will
maintain the Winter Weather Advisory mainly due to some poor driving conditions as the locations where it is snowing is also showing low visibilities and likely slick spots on the roads.

Heading into tomorrow we should be a bit warmer with some breaks in
the clouds expected under generally zonal flow allowing the sun to
shine down at times. We'll climb above the 50 degree mark for most
places on Wednesday as surface winds turn more southerly in addition
to the sun still making it's way through breaks in the clouds.

Next weather system is expected to move in towards the end of the
work week as a low spins through the Great Lakes Region and drags
along a cold front. The air coming in from this system is more of a continental air mass and the moisture is therefore fairly limited.
So the best chances to see precipitation will likely be in the
higher terrain where cold temperatures combine with orographic lift
to squeeze out any water the atmosphere is carrying. For the
majority of the eastern Tennessee Valley the biggest impacts will be
the chilly temperatures behind the front as we head into the
weekend. Probabilistic and deterministic guidance has started to
trend slightly "warmer" with this system as the coldest air might
stay further to our north. It will still be pretty chilly in the
mornings this weekend, but we may be looking at widespread 20's
instead of widespread teens for overnight lows. With the much drier
air associated with this system we'll likely get a longer period of
sunshine to try and take the edge off the morning frost.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Main concerns for the TAF period will be potential for MVFR or
brief IFR cigs into the late morning at TRI/TYS. Highest
confidence is at TRI, with lower confidence at TYS where a
scenario of fluctuating low VFR to MVFR cigs seems more likely.
MVFR cigs at CHA will gradually clear to low VFR over the next few
hours. All sites will be VFR with southwesterly winds less than
10kts by late morning into tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 51 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 47 36 54 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 26 46 36 53 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 24 42 29 49 / 10 0 0 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Russell-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

538
FXUS64 KMRX 091109 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
609 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

- Dry and warmer temperatures today and Wednesday prior to a cold
front later Wednesday. Higher terrain light snow possible
behind the system early Thursday.

- Another warm-up expected late week with low chances of
precipitation around, primarily for the north.

- Cold morning temperatures expected over the upcoming weekend
with sub-freezing temperatures likely area-wide and wind chills
in the teens for parts of northeast TN and southwest VA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Later today will provide a nice break from precipitation and
the drawn out dreary overcast conditions, as cloud cover will
decrease. High pressure will dominate the southeast, with
temperatures on the incline today and tomorrow.

Conditions change again later Wednesday when a low center
crossing southern Michigan brings a cold front to the area. Before
that arrives, a strong westerly jet will develop Wednesday
morning. Based on the flow direction, this isn't ideal for a
mountainwave set-up. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest for
much of the forecast area Wednesday. A mostly rain with some snow
mix, will transition to mostly snow Thursday morning. NW flow
behind the storm system and front may bring light accumulations to
the Southern Appalachians and southwest Virginia. Nothing more
than an inch and a half, currently.

A short cool-down can be expected Thursday with drier conditions
throughout the day and decreasing cloud cover. However,
precipitation from a weak system will bring increased chances to
northern parts of the CWA. Meanwhile, upper heights will be rising
which will bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and
Saturday.

Later this weekend becomes a bit complicated in regards to
more precipitation due to potential southern and northern stream
systems colliding, but the one thing models can see and agree on,
is a substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into early Monday.
Strong high pressure is expected to barrel its way through,
originating from Alaska and Western Canada, where temperatures
there have been in the 50s below at night, but we will not see
that here.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

MVFR cigs will persist at TRI for most of the morning, becoming
scattered by the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are foreast.
Near the end of the TAF period, a strong inversion develops with a
LLJ near 2 kft, suggesting LLWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 35 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 36 53 31 / 0 0 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 45 35 53 30 / 0 0 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 29 49 29 / 0 0 30 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

558
FXUS64 KMRX 092344
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
644 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

- Dry and warmer temperatures today and Wednesday prior to a cold
front late Wednesday. Higher terrain light snow possible behind the
system Thursday.

- Colder morning temperatures expected over the upcoming weekend and
early next week possibly dropping into the low 20's or teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Currently the sky is clear and blue for most of the eastern
Tennessee Valley as, go check it out if you haven't seen it
recently. We're expecting to see some breaks from the clouds today
and, to some extent, tomorrow with southerly surface winds and
higher pressure we'll see temperatures warmer than we've seen for
several days, back into the 50's for many on Wednesday.

These temperatures won't last for very long as our next system will
move into the region heading into Thursday as a low pressure system
moves across the Great Lakes region and drags along with it a cold
front into the southeast US. Precipitation with this system looks to
move in late Wednesday and continue through Thursday as a very
classic northwest flow set up. We'll likely see light rain in the
valley at times, with temperatures cold enough that the higher
elevations of the Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the
East Tennessee Mountains pick up snow... Especially the northwest
facing sides. Currently have the snow mostly falling between 00z
Thursday through 12z Thursday, but we could see the peaks of the
mountains get flurries throughout Thursday. Expect snow
accumulations to remain mainly above 2,500 feet, with the peaks of
the mountains topping out around the 2-4 inch mark. Eventually
behind the precipitation upper heights will be rising which will
bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday.

Things get a bit murkier at the end of the weekend and next week due
to potential southern and northern stream systems merging, but the
one thing models agree on is a substantial drop in temperatures
Sunday into early Monday. Coldest temperatures of the forecast (and
season so far) will likely occur Monday morning with low 20's across
the southern Valley and dipping into the teens in southwest
Virginia. Kids will want to bundle up for the bus ride to school
Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Strong wind event ahead of a cold front will induce LLWS tonight
into tomorrow morning. As the morning atmosphere warms, winds will
increasingly mix to the surface, bringing widespread 25+ knot
gusts, KTYS may slightly over-perform given favorable SW wind
orientation. Late in the period FROPA will yield worsening
conditions, with CIGs likely falling to MVFR for most of the
region by the end of the TAF period. A 30 percent chance of light
rain exists at KTRI associated with the frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 56 29 46 / 0 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 52 30 42 / 0 20 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 35 52 29 41 / 0 20 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 48 28 36 / 0 40 60 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

167
FXUS64 KMRX 101111 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
611 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Dry and warmer to start today, before a cold front arrival later
tonight. Gusty winds ahead of the front for the forecast area.
Wind Advisory in effect for all except the southern part of the
forecast area.

- NW flow snow event expected later today through early Thursday
with accumulating snow over parts of the Southern Appalachians
and higher terrain of southwest Virgina. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued.

- We will warm up again late week with low chances of
precipitation across the north.

- Stronger cold front Sunday into Monday will considerably drop
temperatures. Lows in the teens with some single digits Monday
morning. Cold wind chills also possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

The forecast for today has come into better agreement over Wind
Advisory level winds for everywhere north of the southern valley
and southern plateau later today. As well as an accumulating snow
event for northwest flow prone locations of the forecast area;
Southern Appalachians and parts of southwest Virginia.
Temperatures will be warmer today, however, cloud cover will be on
the rise.

Almost advisory level winds are being observed at Cove Mountain
with gusts in the upper 30s at the time of this discussion. A WSW
LLJ will increase into the overnight hours, bringing increasing
winds to the higher terrain. Later in the day as mixing occurs,
the gusty conditions will translate to the surface for the lower
elevations, hence the advisory covering the day-time. A heavier
weighted blend of the HREF/RRFS was used to capture the usually
overperforming SWly winds for the valley. Gusty winds will
continue into Thursday morning for the higher terrain, slowly
decreasing behind the FROPA. A Wind Advisory is in effect later
this morning first beginning in the mountains, expanding to the
lower elevations, later finishing for the mountains early
tomorrow.

Confidence has also increased on higher snowfall amounts for the
higher terrain with the latest guidance. The day will start warm,
but temperatures will fall coinciding with the cold front later
this evening. Rain will transition to a rain/snow mix, and then
eventually all snow for elevations primarily above 2500 feet.
Low-level moisture, NW winds, and temperatures below freezing are
evident on forecast soundings, all supporting northwest flow snow.
Snow will end early to mid Thursday when low-level winds drop off
and lose the NWly component. Total snowfall accumulations will
generally be 1 to 3 inches with higher mountain tops possibly
seeing above that, for example, LeConte may see up to 5 inches.
It's possible some light snowfall may be seen across lower
elevations of the northern valley and plateau, but is generally
not favorable with NWly flow due to more downsloping on the valley
side, which means drier. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
and will begin mid-day, running 24 hours highlighting the
potential for the aforementioned areas.

Following the snow's exit Thursday, a short cool-down can be
expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing
cloud cover. However, precipitation from a weak system will bring
increased chances to northern parts of the CWA Friday. Meanwhile,
upper heights will be rising which will bring the warmer
temperatures back for Friday and Saturday.

Later this weekend becomes a bit complicated in regards to
more precipitation due to potential interaction of southern and
northern stream systems, but the one thing models agree on, is a
substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into early Monday. Strong
high pressure is expected to barrel its way through, originating
from Alaska and Western Canada, where temperatures there have been
in the 50s below at night, but we will not see that here. Monday
morning lows are currently forecast to be in the teens with some
single digits for the highest elevations and parts of southwest
Virginia. Wind appears will be on the decline once we get later in
the night Sunday into Monday, which is good news and may suppress
what could be much worse wind chills. High pressure will
eventually shift eastward but will keep us dry through at least
early Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Gusty winds during the day will be the main aviation impacts this
period. A low level jet is ramping up and will peak across the
area between 12-18Z. Winds near 2 kft will be in the 35-45 kt
range overnight, then as the boundary layer mixes later in the
morning, these SW winds will mix to the surface and be channeled
up the TN Valley. Gusts around 40 kt are expected at TYS. These
winds will decrease in the late afternoon. A front will move into
the area late in the day, and bring MVFR cigs and light rain
showers to TYS and TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 30 45 31 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 29 40 30 / 30 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 51 29 40 29 / 20 10 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 27 35 24 / 50 50 10 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this afternoon
for Anderson-Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-
Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest
Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Northwest Monroe-Roane-Scott TN-Sullivan-Union-Washington
TN.

Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast
Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this afternoon
for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Thursday for Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

303
FXUS64 KMRX 102327
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
627 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Strong gusty winds this afternoon will subside later today into
tonight.

- NW flow snow event expected later today through early Thursday
with accumulating snow mainly over parts of the E TN mountains
and higher terrain of southwest Virgina.

- Low chances of precipitation across the north Friday night into
Saturday.

- Stronger surge of cold air will arrive for Sunday into Monday.
Lows in the teens with some higher elevation single digits
expected Monday morning. Lower wind chills will add to the cold.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

The strong gusty winds that are ongoing over our area ahead of an
approaching cold front will subside later this afternoon into
tonight after the front exits to our east. Winds have already
gusted over 50 at Cove Mountain, and we have seen gusts to around
40 at the TYS airport. The wind advisory will be allowed to
continue as it is for now.

While moisture is limited, we will see some rain showers around the
time of the frontal passage, then as much colder air pushes in we
will see a rapid changeover to snow showers over the higher terrain,
and the valleys will likely see some snow showers and/or snow
flurries as well overnight. The normally favored orographic lift
areas of the mountains will see accumulating snow in the northwest
flow and cold advection overnight into Thursday, with amounts of 1
to 3 inches likely in many of these upslope higher elevation
locations especially at elevations above 2500 feet. Locally higher
amounts may occur in a few of the highest mountain peaks. The winter
weather advisory for parts of SW VA and the E TN mountains will be
continued as is. A few locations across the northern half of the TN
valley may see some light accumulations of less than an inch, but
most valley areas are expected to see no accumulation or just a
dusting.

Following the snow's exit Thursday, a short-lived cool-down can be
expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing
clouds. However, a weak system will bring increased chances for
precipitation to northern parts of the area late Thursday night into
Friday. Meanwhile, upper heights will be rising which will bring the
warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday.

Models generally agree on a stronger cold front moving through
Saturday night followed by an area of cold high pressure with its
origins in Alaska and Western Canada. Current ensemble data suggests
little precipitation, but much colder air will move in behind the
front for Sunday and Monday. Monday morning lows are currently
forecast to be in the teens across the majority of the valley and
Plateau with some single digits for the highest elevations of the
mountains and parts of southwest Virginia. It currently appears
winds will be on the decline once we get later in the night
Sunday into Monday, which is good news and may suppress what could
be much worse wind chills. High pressure will eventually shift
eastward but will keep us dry through at least early Tuesday.

Another system may approach by Wednesday, so Pops will tick up once
again by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Light rain will continue off and on for the next few hours. After
midnight a changeover to light snow can be expected near TRI.
Snow chances are lower near TYS. CHA looks dry after midnight.
MVFR CIGs are likely at TRI and TYS and will linger late into the
morning despite a cold frontal passage late tonight or early
morning. Winds have decreased at the surface but are still around
30 knots at 2k feet, so LLWS was added for the next few hours.
Winds will decrease through the night and become more westerly or northwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 46 30 58 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 41 31 54 / 30 10 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 29 41 30 54 / 20 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 35 26 46 / 70 20 30 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Russell-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

724
FXUS64 KMRX 111114 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
614 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

- NW flow snow event will persist through mid-day today, with
accumulating snow mainly over parts of the E TN mountains and
higher terrain of southwest Virgina.

- Light snowfall accumulation possible across the north Friday.

- Stronger surge of cold air will arrive for Sunday into Monday.
Lows in the teens with some higher elevation single digits
expected Monday morning. Lower wind chills will add to the cold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

The colder temperatures expected are lagging behind a bit even
though the cold front has moved through and winds are out of the
northwest now. Currently, the coldest temperatures are in SW VA,
where snow has been reported the last couple of hours. NWly flow
paired with low-level moisture through the later morning or early
afternoon hours today, will provide what's necessary for NW flow
or upslope flow snowfall across the Southern Appalachians,
northeast TN, and southwest VA. Guidance hasn't really deviated
much, even from 24 hours ago. Still expecting 1 to 3 inches with
up to 4 inches across the highest peaks. Over the next couple of
hours this morning before sunrise, convective like snow showers
will be possible which may bring decent accumulation in a short
period of time. Much colder air from aloft has yet to move in,
which will increase the mid-level lapse rates. Narrow bands of
snowfall are possible, according to recent CAMs runs. Winds
dropped off during the afternoon hours in the lower elevations,
but hung on in the higher elevations. At the time of this
discussion and issuance, the Wind Advisory will expire at its
posted time of 1 AM EST. Winds across higher terrain have
considerably dropped off over the past couple of hours.

Following the snow's exit later today, a brief cool-down can be
expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing
cloud cover. This won't last long for some, as a persistent low in
the model runs the past couple of days, has hinted at a quick
clip of light precipitation Friday, mainly snow, north of the TN
state line. The current total snowfall forecast calls for a few
tenths to just over an inch of snow. Highest peaks may see closer
to 2 inches from this short-lived event. Not expecting too much in
the way of impacts.

The next anticipated event comes this weekend with a pretty
substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into Monday. Confidence
isn't quite there yet on what precipitation the area may see, as
it is struggling to grasp a system over the Gulf around the same
time as a system to the north. Late Saturday into Sunday, a
fairly strong Arctic high will dive down from Canada, peaking near
1045 mb over the Northern and Central Plains. A pressure gradient
will form over our area, which will develop gusty conditions
Sunday. The "good" news so far, is that the strongest winds will
not line up with the coldest temperatures later that night/Monday
morning, so we may escape much colder wind chills. Still, Sunday
even during the day will struggle to reach freezing, for many, and
with the winds will make it feel 10 degrees or more colder. Winds
hanging on over the highest elevations, however, may bring below
zero feel-like temperatures.

Once we warm Monday, we begin to recover quickly with return flow
from the west and southwest developing again. The strong high will
weaken as it eventually moves east of us early next week,
providing the return of warmth. We will also stay dry for more
than a day early next week with ample sunshine. We continue to
warm even into mid to late week, around the time period the next
system is forecast to arrive.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

At TRI, scattered snow showers will be in the area for the next
few hours, and may drop vis/cigs to MVFR at times, possibly IFR
with heavier snow showers. Cigs should prevail at MVFR levels until
the afternoon. TYS will have cigs on the low end of VFR through
early afternoon. CHA will be scattered to clear through the day.
Clouds increase again in the evening, but should stay VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 33 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 32 54 33 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 42 31 53 30 / 10 20 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 27 46 30 / 0 50 30 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Russell-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

954
FXUS64 KMRX 112337
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
637 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

- Light snow accumulations across the north tonight into Friday,
with impacts most likely across southwest Virginia.

- Bitter cold will surge into the area for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Tonight into early Friday will bring another round of light snow
for our far northern areas, especially in SW VA. A weak low
pressure system will be diving southeast toward our area out of
the Northern Plains, and while it will not have a lot of moisture
to work with, a band of isentropic lift and frontogentic forcing
north of its associated warm front will bring a band of light
precipitation for several hours tonight into early Friday. Thermal
profiles suggest this will be mainly snow. The most challenging
part of the forecast is exactly where the band will be and for how
long, which of course leads to uncertainties about snow amounts.
Right now, it appears the main impacts will be along our northern
fringe in SW VA. The latest HREF, REFS and NBM probabilities of
exceeding an inch across much of SW VA are in the 50-80% range,
but generally show low chances of 2 inches of more. This looks
reasonable, so will go with amounts of up to 2 inches. Will issue
a winter weather advisory for our SW VA counties, with the highest
confidence of impacts being across the northern part of the
advisory area.

Models are in good agreement that a strong cold front will push
through our area Saturday night followed by an area of cold high
pressure with its origins in Alaska and Western Canada. This system
will also have little moisture to work with, and current ensemble
data suggests little precipitation. However, a period of snow
showers and flurries can be expected Saturday night into Sunday
especially north and mountains as the much colder air surges in. It
will be quite cold for Sunday into Monday behind the front. Highs
Sunday will likely be around or below freezing in valley locations,
and Monday morning lows are currently forecast to be in the single
digits and teens across our entire area. It currently appears winds
will be on the decline once we get later in the night Sunday into
Monday which would suppress what could be worse wind chills, but
wind chill values in the single digits will be common in the valleys
with below zero values for the higher mountains at times Sunday
night into Monday morning.

High pressure will eventually shift eastward but will keep us dry
Monday through at least Tuesday. and Tuesday will be a little
warmer. Models are in poor agreement on when the next chance for
precipitation will arrive. Current ensemble data supports a gradual
warm up continuing for Wednesday and Thursday, with chances for
precipitation returning to the forecast by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Light snow still expected overnight tonight into tomorrow morning,
with MVFR restrictions most likely KTRI and north. Snow should
shrink northward with time through the period after its arrival in
East TN, and cannot rule out a brief bout of snow or wintry mix
into the central valley to begin the event, though expecting it to
remain north of KTYS. Conditions will improve slowly at KTRI back
to VFR by 15z, elsewhere gusty southwesterly winds tomorrow
afternoon at KCHA and KTYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 33 59 34 58 / 0 10 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 54 33 54 / 20 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 31 54 31 52 / 30 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 46 30 48 / 50 40 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Friday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

582
FXUS64 KMRX 121140
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
640 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

- Light snow accumulations across southwest Virginia and northeast
Tennessee through early to mid-morning. Greatest snow
accumulations will be across southwest Virginia with 1 to
possibly 3 inches across the higher elevations.

- Bitter cold will surge into the area for Sunday into Monday with
very cold wind chills near 5 below across the higher elevations
to single digits in the valley.

- Warm up for much of next week to above normal temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Currently bands of mainly light snow is moving northeast across
southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Heaviest band over
southwest Virginia especially Wise and Russell counties. Main
forcing is due to isentropic lift especially in the 700-600mb
level. Through the morning this isentropic lift will continue as
west to southwest winds bring warmer temperatures in the area but
noticed moisture becomes limited by mid to late morning. Also,
temperatures warm at 850mb to above freezing allowing snow to
change over to rain.

Accumulating snowfall will be over for much of northeast Tennessee
by daybreak and southwest Virginia by mid to late morning. REFS
and HREF show 1 to 2 inches for southwest VA, possibly up to 3
inches across the mountains.

For Saturday, surface ridging over the Tennessee valley. Aloft
another strong upper jet will move across the Ohio valley and
lower Great Lakes. Deepening upper trough over the eastern half of
the nation will bring a strong arctic-like front through the area
in the evening.

Cold air-mass will surge into the area Saturday night and Sunday.
Northwest flow into the mountains will produce orographic snowfall
but moisture is limited. For the southwest Virginia and northeast
mountains, snowfall of 1 to possibly 2 inches are expected. Main
story will be the cold air mass with 850mb temperatures anomaly
low with readings dropping to -15 to -18 degrees.

For Sunday and Sunday night, brisk northwesterly winds and cold
airmass will drop wind chills to 5 degrees below zero across the
higher elevations to single digits in the valley. Cold Weather
Advisory may be needed for the mountains.

For much of next week, upper flow becomes much less amplified with
a more zonal pattern by mid-week. This pattern change will allow
temperatures to modify with above normal readings by Wednesday and
Thursday. Dry conditions are anticipated as well until the latter
half of the week as moisture returns north into the Tennessee
valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Snow for the next couple of hours will hug the TN/VA state line
fairly close to TRI. VCSH and possible quick bursts of snow will
be possible this morning. TRI should improve to VFR during the
later morning hours. Elsewhere, SW winds will develop and
potentially gust generally <20 KT at CHA and TYS this afternoon
and early evening. CIG bases will continue to lift and scatter out
with time today. Although will be VFR, TRI may hold onto BKN
tonight. Otherwise, high pressure east of the mountains will
provide calm conditions and high clouds, or nearly clear skies
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 33 58 28 / 0 0 0 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 33 55 26 / 10 0 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 53 31 53 25 / 10 0 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 30 50 23 / 40 0 0 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

292
FXUS64 KMRX 122347
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
647 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

- Light snow accumulations possible mainly in the mountains Saturday
night into Sunday.

- Bitter cold will surge into the area for Sunday into Monday.

- Warming trend begins Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Tonight into Saturday we will be under the influence of surface
high pressure, and high temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal for this time of year on Saturday.

The brief warmup will quickly be forgotten as a strong cold front
surges through our area Saturday night ushering in an arctic air
mass for Sunday into Monday. The front will have little moisture to
work with, but we will likely see some showers quickly changing over
to snow showers and flurries Saturday night as the front moves
through, with snow showers and flurries lingering into Sunday
especially over the normally favored higher elevation areas as the
northwest flow and cold advection continues. Right now, it appears
any snow accumulations will be most likely over the higher
elevations of the E TN mountains and SW VA as is typical in these
scenarios. Current ensemble data suggests a very low chance (around
10-30%) of exceeding one inch of snow even in these favored areas,
but think this is underdone at this point and as more hi-res
guidance is incorporated these probabilities will likely increase.
Even so, any snow accumulations are expected to be light.

The bigger story for most folks will be the cold. High temperatures
Sunday daytime temperatures will generally be near or below freezing
even in valley areas, and the wind will make it feel even colder.
Lows Sunday night will be in the single digits and teens, and while
it currently appears winds will be on the decline during Sunday
night which will suppress what could be even worse wind chills,
still wind chill values in the single digits will be common in the
valleys with below zero values for the higher mountains at times
Sunday night into Monday morning. It is still unclear how much if
any of the area will dip into cold weather advisory territory Sunday
night into early Monday, but it looks close enough to warrant
continued inclusion in the HWO for now.

The center of surface high pressure will eventually shift to our
east by Tuesday allowing for a gradual warmup to begin, and
temperatures will likely be above normal by Thursday. Both Tuesday
and Wednesday will be dry, but moisture will begin to increase later
in the week. Models are still in poor agreement on exactly when the
next chance for precipitation will arrive, but current ensemble data
supports having chances for rain back in the forecast by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

High clouds will thin out by late morning tomorrow. There is a low
chance for MVFR CIGs or vis mainly at TRI and TYS but confidence
is low. Winds will be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 59 28 35 / 0 0 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 55 26 32 / 0 0 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 32 53 24 30 / 0 0 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 50 24 29 / 0 0 50 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

325
FXUS64 KMRX 131146
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
646 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Patchy freezing fog early this morning

- Light snow accumulations expected across the far east Tennessee
and southwest Virginia mountains late tonight and Sunday
morning.

- Bitter cold will surge into the area for Sunday through Monday
morning.

- Warming trend begins Tuesday with above normal temperatures by
mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Currently, satellite night fog imagery and area observations are
detecting patchy fog developing mainly near area waterways. Due to
sub-freezing temperatures, patchy freezing fog is expected which
may cause some minor icing on bridges and overpasses.

For today, dry and mild conditions ahead of the arctic-like cold
front.

For tonight and Sunday, a deep upper trough will dig into the
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with associated cold
front moving across the area around midnight. Strong cold air
advection behind the frontal boundary with bring arctic-like
airmass. Main concern for Sunday through Monday morning will be
the brutal wind chills especially for the mountains. A Cold Air
Advisory will be need across much of the area with the greatest
probability per ensembles over the higher terrain. Wind chills
there could drop to 5 to 15 degrees below zero. The highest peaks
could see even colder.

For the rest of the area, winds chills will drop into the single
digits at times Sunday and Sunday night.

Besides the brutal temperatures, snow showers or flurries are
likely. Light snow accumulations of 1 to possibly 2 inches for
the favored northwest flow orographic areas of the far east
Tennessee and southwest Virgina mountains.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, upper flow pattern de-amplifies with
more zonal flow. This will allow for a nice warm-up and dry
conditions.

For Wednesday night through Friday, the main storm track will be
across the northern third of the nation. The fast more zonal flow
will quickly move a series of short-waves with associated frontal
boundaries moving across the region. Ensemble cluster analysis
shows differences in timing of these systems but overall and
milder and wetter pattern is anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Patchy FZFG currently impacting TRI and TYS this morning. VSBY
could be 1 mile or less with either VV or OVC as low as 100 ft.
Once that clears this morning, VFR expected everywhere with high
FEW-SCT to start, eventually leading to lower SCT-BKN-OVC ahead of
tonight's very strong cold front. CHA is forecast to stay within
VFR range, even tonight, with low chances of precipitation. TYS
and TRI CIGs expected to fall to MVFR. Possible IFR with
precipitation. PROB30 at TYS and TRI for RASN with frontal
passage. Winds will also increase out of the north with gusts to
near 20 KT at CHA and TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 27 34 16 / 0 20 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 25 31 13 / 0 20 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 54 22 29 13 / 0 20 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 22 28 7 / 0 50 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

780
FXUS64 KMRX 132354
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Light snow accumulations expected across the high terrain of
East Tennessee and southwest Virginia overnight into Sunday
morning.

- Bitter cold will surge into the area for Sunday through Monday
morning. Please see the Cold Weather Advisories for additional
details.

- Warming trend begins Tuesday with above normal temperatures by
mid to late week. Conditions will be dry during this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

A broad upper level trough remains in place over much of the central
and eastern CONUS. Shortwave energy translating through the synoptic
feature tonight into Sunday will sharpen the troughing as a surface
front progresses through the region. Some light ra/sn will occur
during the overnight hours as this energy translates through the
central and southern Appalachians, however, the greatest
probabilities for light snow accumulation will be limited to
higher terrain of the East Tennessee mountains and southwest
Virginia. Overall, moisture in the DGZ is lacking and better
northwest flow does not initiate until the bulk of the moisture is
departing the region. Will cover this with an SPS for now, ending
it at midnight to allow for the next forecast desk to make any
additional considerations.

The main concerns will be well below normal temperatures advecting
into the region as winds veer NNWly and become gusty behind frontal
passage. Temperatures around 20 degrees below normal are largely
expected across the region Sunday into Sunday night. A Cold
Weather Advisory has been issued for the Cumberland Plateau,
southwest Virginia, and our East Tennessee mountain zones starting
around sunrise tomorrow morning. The gusty winds and well below
normal temperatures will result in wind chill values around zero,
to as low as 10 below zero in the highest terrain of the
mountains. By late Sunday afternoon, the remainder of the valley
locations are introduced to the Advisory as cold air continues to
filter into the region. Overnight lows in the low teens to single
digits will be widespread. Many valley locations will see wind
chills in the single digits to near zero.

Cold Weather Advisory products will come to an end shortly after
daybreak Monday, when a gradual warming trend is expected into the
mid-week as the anomalous troughing ejects northeast and H5 heights
slowly recover. For Wednesday night through Friday, the main storm
track will be across the northern third of the nation. The fast but
more zonal flow will quickly move a series of short-waves with
associated frontal boundaries moving across the region. Ensemble
cluster analysis shows differences in timing of systems but overall
increasing chances of precipitation are expected towards the latter
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

A mix of rain and snow, mainly near TRI and TYS, is expected as a
trough moves through overnight. MVFR CIGs are likely at all
terminals until mid morning. Winds will become more northwesterly
and gusty in the early morning hours as a boundary moves through.
Gusts will be a bit higher once the clouds thin out in the morning.
Showers will start out as rain around midnight before changing to
light snow late tonight. Little to no accumulation is expected at
TYS. TRI may get up to half an inch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 32 17 41 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 30 13 39 / 40 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 21 27 12 37 / 30 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 27 8 35 / 70 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
Anderson-Bradley-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-McMinn-Meigs-North
Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Sullivan-Union-
Washington TN-West Polk.

Cold Weather Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday to 10 AM
EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-
Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Marion-
Morgan-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
Scott VA.

Cold Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
Lee-Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

273
FXUS64 KMRX 142323
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
623 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

- Very cold conditions today will continue into Monday.

- A warming trend will begin Tuesday with rain chances returning by
Thursday.

- Strong gusty winds will be possible across some of the higher
elevations and foothills of the mountains Thursday into Thursday
night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Very cold air continues to push into the region. Temperatures will
continue to slowly fall this afternoon with the gusty winds making
it feel even colder, then lows tonight will be in the single digits
and teens across the area as the winds diminish. Wind chill values
will be in the single digits in the valley and below zero in the
higher elevations at times into early Monday. The cold weather
advisory will be allowed to continue as is.

The core of the cold air will quickly shift to our east as the upper
trough exits and surface high pressure drifts across the region and
then off to our east. It will remain cold Monday with high
temperatures generally in the 30s to around 40, but by Tuesday highs
will recover to be just a little below seasonal normals in the 40s
to lower 50s, and the warming trend will continue through Thursday.
We will stay dry through at least Tuesday and current trends keep
Wednesday dry as well.

The upper flow will be quasi-zonal over the region Wednesday, then
an upper trough will be digging into over the Plains before lifting
out to the east and northeast in the Thursday/Friday time frame.
Models have come into decent agreement in focusing our next round of precipitation around Thursday into Thursday night ahead of and near
a cold front that swings through with this system. Thermal profiles
suggest this precipitation will be primarily rain. Ensemble data
indicates a low (10-30%) chance of convective energy exceeding 100
J/kg mainly south, and it does look like there may be some rumbles
of thunder at least for our southern areas late Thursday or early
Thursday night depending on how this system evolves. The low level
jet will be strong ahead of this system as well, and the direction
may be favorable for the possibilty of mountain wave enhanced winds
in the normal higher elevations and foothills of the mountains
Thursday into Thursday night.

Surface high pressure will build in Friday and should keep both
Friday and Saturday mostly dry. Friday will see just a brief cool
down before gradual warming begins again Saturday. Another system
will be approaching by Sunday, with another round of precipitation
that at this point looks to be mainly rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions will continue with mostly clear skies. Light
northerly winds will become more southerly tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 16 41 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 13 39 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 13 37 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 8 35 20 45 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-
Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-
Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest
Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for Lee-Russell-
Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

236
FXUS64 KMRX 151134
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
634 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

- Very cold conditions will continue today and tonight.

- A warming trend will begin Tuesday with rain chances returning
by Thursday. Maybe a light snow for the higher elevations late
Thursday night.

- Strong gusty winds will be possible across some of the higher
elevations and foothills of the mountains Thursday into Thursday
night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

A very cold air mass is in place as high pressure sits overhead. In
the upper levels, a trough remains over the Eastern U.S. and a ridge
is over the Western U.S. A warming trend begins Tuesday as a weak
ridge moves into the Southeast and high pressure moves to the east
bringing southerly flow to the region. Monday through Wednesday will
be dry and temps will return to near normal by Wednesday. Rain is
likely Thursday as the next system approaches with a cold front
moving through Thursday evening and a strong shortwave passing by
Friday morning. A changeover to snow is likely late Thursday night
mainly in the mountains as the trough moves through, then northwest
flow brings a terrain enhancement factor. Strong winds in the
mountains and foothills will be possible Thursday/Thursday night
with a wind direction favorable for downslope but may stay below
Advisory criteria of 40 mph.

Friday and Saturday look dry with high pressure and nearly zonal
flow. After a post frontal cooldown on Friday, temps will rebound
quickly to above normal on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR the entire TAF period. Dry weather, mostly clear skies, with
either light winds or calm conditions forecast. The current Nly/NEly
flow will turn out of the south and southwest later today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 24 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 23 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 37 22 48 31 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 19 46 27 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Cherokee-
Clay.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning
for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-
Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-
Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-
Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest
Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

599
FXUS64 KMRX 152318
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

- Very cold conditions will continue tonight. A warming trend will
begin Tuesday, with above normal temperatures expected by
Thursday.

- Strong gusty winds are expected across the East Tennessee
mountains and foothills Thursday into Thursday night.

- Rain chances return area-wide Thursday. Light snow may be
possible in the higher elevations on the backside of the system
Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

A deep trough will continue to lift north and east into the mid-
week. Weak ridging building into the region will allow for
continued dry conditions with a warming trend over the next few
days. While we have escaped the significant cold, morning lows
will remain on the frigid side with most of the area in the 20s
Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be more seasonal Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday.

By Thursday, an amplified trough will dig through the central CONUS,
greatly enhancing strong warm and moist air advection into the
region. Temperatures will climb above normal and precipitation
chances will increase area-wide with an initial period of
isentropic ascent followed by a frontal passage Thursday night. A
period of strong gusty winds are also expected in the mountains
as a SSWly H85 jet near 50-60kts swings atop the southern
Appalachians and Ohio Valley region. Some light snow may be
possible on the backside of the system early Friday conditional on
the alignment of northwest flow with lingering moisture
availability. The above normal temperatures in place ahead of the
system suggest light accumulations would likely be limited to
higher terrain.

High pressure builds in post-frontal passage, with drier and
relatively cooler conditions Friday afternoon. While the upper-level
pattern will be quasi-zonal, weak impulses could result in some
light isentropic ascent induced rain for the weekend. As a result,
NBM does introduce 40% or lower PoPs Saturday night into Sunday.
Uncertainties aside, this would more than likely be non-impactful
rain. Temperatures are likely to return to slightly above normal
values for the weekend as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions will continue with light and variable winds and
limited cloud cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 24 52 32 55 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 50 32 53 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 23 48 32 50 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 20 46 28 48 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

563
FXUS64 KMRX 161120
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
620 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Dry and cool conditions are expected today with very low RH.

- A warming trend will continue through the week with a system
impacting the area Thursday. Strong mountain winds, widespread
showers, and isolated thunder in the south are expected.

- Afterwards, drier and cooler conditions return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Currently, broad troughing is lifting off to the northeast with
recent arctic high pressure having weakened some and tracked to our
southeast. This setup has continued the cold and dry trend that has
been seen in recent days. Southerly flow will be increasing and lead
to a continuation of the warming trend. With the continued subsidence
and dryness of the airmass, another day of low RH's can be expected
with values in the 20s for most. Winds won't be too strong because
of a weak MSLP gradient, but some higher gusts are possible as 850mb
winds increase to around 25 kts. By Wednesday, high pressure will
move further to the east with further height rises and more zonal
flow aloft. Focus will turn towards deepening troughing across the
Northern Plains with below 990mb surface low pressure over North
Dakota. This system will track towards the Great Lakes Wednesday
night into Thursday with its associated cold front extending south.

As this system approaches, southerly flow will strengthen
significantly ahead of the front due to the MSLP gradient and a
broad 850mb jet of 50 to 60 kts. In addition to approaching rain
chances, this will turn focus towards strong winds, especially in
the mountains. The MSLP gradient and 850mb flow will be strong, but
the surface low will be very far north. Still, chances are
increasing for a mountain wave event Thursday evening. With respect
to shower and thunderstorm chances, the latest data continues to
show instability in southern portions of the area, mainly to be
elevated. This will be sufficient for low-end thunder chances but
with mainly showers across the region.

After this system moves east, cooler and drier air will return on
Friday with more zonal flow aloft. Overall, temperatures will be
below normal but still much warmer than what we recently saw.
Throughout the weekend, rain chances will be limited due to high
pressure, but some solutions show variations of a weaker system
later on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Light winds, VFR conditions through the period. High clouds to
enter and build after 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 32 54 39 / 0 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 31 53 34 / 0 0 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 48 31 51 34 / 0 0 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 28 49 32 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

384
FXUS64 KMRX 162321
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Dry and cool conditions are expected today with very low RH.

- A warming trend will continue through the week with a system
impacting the area Thursday. Strong mountain winds, widespread
showers, and isolated thunder in the south are expected.

- Afterwards, drier and cooler conditions return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

We remain seated underneath weak riding aloft while surface high
pressure continues to influence dry conditions across the southern Appalachians. Latest satellite and surface observations depict a
low stratus deck advecting through the Tennessee Valley into the
Ohio River Valley. Locations along or north of I-40 may see a
period of mostly cloudy skies as this deck lifts north and east.
A slight warming trend will persist into the mid-week as seasonal
temperatures are expected Wednesday.

By Thursday, an amplified trough will dig through the central CONUS,
greatly enhancing strong warm and moist air advection into the
region. Temperatures will climb above normal and precipitation
chances will increase area-wide with an initial period of isentropic
ascent followed by a frontal passage Thursday night.

While the parent low will be located over northern Michigan, CAD
will enhance the pressure gradient locally. Combined with favorable
LLJ direction around 55-65kts per latest NAM solutions, mountain
wave enhancement winds are expected in the East Tennessee mountains
and adjacent foothills. Will up the wording to 55mph in the HWO but
do believe this upper threshold could increase as we start to see high-resolution models come into play. The eventual need for a
Wind Advisory seems likely as we get closer to the event, with
potential for this to trend into High Wind criteria. Will
continue to monitor closely.

Regarding shower and storm chances, this system will feature
predominant rain, though, a few rumbles of thunder my occur in the
southern tier where NAMBufr soundings depict very minor elevated
instability no greater than 200J/kg. With the strong low-level jet,
the heaviest showers could still help transport gusty winds between
30-40mph to the surface at times. Particularly as the main axis of frontogentic forcing swings through the region as depicted by latest
RRFS guidance. Overall, a lack of instability is expected to keep
the threat of damaging winds very low. Some light snow may be
possible on the backside of the system early Friday morning. This
will be conditional on the alignment of cold air advection &
northwest flow with lingering moisture availability. The above
normal temperatures in place ahead of the system suggest any light accumulations would likely be limited to higher terrain.

High pressure builds in post-frontal passage, with drier and
relatively cooler conditions Friday afternoon. While the upper-level
pattern will be quasi-zonal through the weekend, weak impulses could
result in some light rain at times. As a result, NBM does introduce
30% or lower PoPs for the latter half the weekend into the new
work week. Uncertainties aside, this would more than likely be
non- impactful rain and more time spent dry than not. Temperatures
return to slightly above normal values for the weekend as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Low level stratus deck is continuing to work it's way north
through the region and will impact KTRI for the first couple of
hours. Afterwards expect VFR conditions for the remaining 24
hours at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 55 41 60 / 0 10 10 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 53 37 61 / 0 10 10 80
Oak Ridge, TN 31 50 36 58 / 0 10 10 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 49 35 59 / 0 10 0 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

451
FXUS64 KMRX 302344
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
644 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

- Snow showers increasingly likely for southwest VA and northeast TN
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Light accumulations probable.

- Moderating temperatures through the end of the week.

- Next round of precip by Friday into early Saturday, mainly south
of I-40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Another cold night in store with overnight lows in the low to mid
20s for most areas. If it weren't for the light winds and high
clouds moving in, we would see even colder temps.

A warming trend begins tomorrow with highs getting back into the
40s. A quick around round of light snow showers looks
increasingly more likely across southwest VA and extreme northeast
TN late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. HREF probs show
moderate probabilities to see up to 0.5 inches across portions of
Wise, Russell, and Washington County VA, and perhaps even Johnson
and Carter County TN. Minor travel impacts are possible during the
Thursday morning commute. Snow showers should come to an end by
early to mid afternoon.

Models have trended further south with the Friday/Saturday system.
The more likely areas to now see rainfall will be across our
southern areas, especially the closer you get to the TN/AL/GA state
lines and as well as southwest NC. Areas north of I-40 may end up
being completely dry. The current QPF forecast for our southern
areas is around 0.5 inches, around 0.1 inches for Knoxville, and
none for northeast TN and southwest VA.

The weekend and into next week continues to looks mostly dry along
with mild temperatures. Any lingering rain from Friday night should
exit by late Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

VFR overnight with relatively clear skies and winds below 10 KT.
SWly winds with gusts up to near 20 KT possible at TYS and TRI
Wednesday during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 50 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 46 30 49 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 23 46 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 41 29 43 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS


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