ACUS01 KWNS 221252
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
The next shortwave trough and associated cold front are expected to
advance inland across British Columbia/coastal Washington by this
evening. A related plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will
contribute to weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning
flashes with low-topped convection. Elsewhere across the West, a few
lightning flashes have been noted early this morning across the
California Sierra, and this scenario may continue today within a
moisture-rich plume with weak buoyancy.

A weak mid-level disturbance over the western Gulf and coastal
Mexico, along with a moist air mass (reference 12z Brownsville
observed sounding) to the south of a slow-moving front, may allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop into/across Deep South Texas.
Similar to morning RAOB/WSR-88D VWP observations, forecast soundings
suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, such that any
convection that evolves across this region should remain below
severe levels.

..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/22/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 191255
SWODY1
SPC AC 191254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today.

...North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States...
A prominent upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley will continue to take on a negative tilt as it quickly
transitions east-northeastward toward New England the Canadian
Maritimes tonight. A very strong deep-layer wind field (80-110 kt at
500 mb) is attendant to this trough, with these strong winds aloft
partially overlapping a modestly moist/minimally unstable warm
sector along the I-95 corridor/East Coast ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front. A strongly forced semi-organized
low-topped convective line, with little or no lightning flashes, is
ongoing around sunrise across northeast North Carolina and southeast
Virginia, and this may further develop north-northeastward across
additional portions of the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. Even
with minimal buoyancy, some stronger/locally severe wind gusts could
occur this morning, and possibly through early afternoon across
parts of the near-coastal Northeast.

..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/19/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 181302
SWODY1
SPC AC 181300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
While organized severe potential may be limited today, isolated
strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the Lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening and/or across the
Carolinas late tonight.

...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
A prominent upper-level trough centered over the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest early this morning will continue to amplify and
spread east-southeastward, taking on a more negative tilt tonight
over the Midwest/Cumberland Plateau with intense 12-hr height falls
on the order of 210m. A robust low/mid-level wind field will
accompany this trough, especially into tonight with 60-80 kt winds
within the lowest 1-3km AGL coincident with the modifying warm
sector. But, only limited destabilization is expected ahead of the
front, with forecast soundings generally exhibiting meager
instability. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band of
frontal convection is expected to develop and spread eastward later
this afternoon into evening. Current thinking is a stable boundary
layer will minimize the risk of severe wind gusts near the surface,
but somewhat taller/more sustained storms could occur across the
Tennessee Valley including Middle/eastern Tennessee and much of
Alabama into parts of Georgia, with at least some convectively
enhanced wind gust potential, possibly to near-severe levels.

...Carolinas...
Some strong/locally severe storms could occur late tonight through
the predawn/early morning hours of Friday, attributable to an
increasingly negative-tilt upper-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the deep-layer wind field. The abatement and
modification of continental/cold air inland is a key uncertainty,
and some guidance such as 00z/06z NAM, may be a bit too aggressive,
albeit modest/weak overall, regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization. Primary concern is for the immediate coastal
areas/Outer Banks where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening is more plausible. But it is also
possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize inland
(including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours..

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/18/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 171257
SWODY1
SPC AC 171255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe wind gusts may accompany low-topped convection
across parts of the Northwest and northern Intermountain region this
morning into midday.

...Northwest/Northern Intermountain region...
A progressive/vigorous shortwave trough will continue to modestly
amplify and otherwise race east-southeastward from the
Washington/British Columbia border vicinity this morning to the
northern Plains tonight. Intense deep-tropospheric flow (highlighted
by 55-85 kt at 700 mb) will accompany this wave, yielding widespread
high winds across much of the Northwest to the northern Great Plains.

Low-topped convection, occasionally capable of lightning and
semi-organized line segments, will continue in association with the east/southeastward-advancing cold front, with convection potentially
expanding by late morning towards the Snake River Plain/Yellowstone
vicinity and potentially other parts of the northeast Great Basin by
afternoon. Surface-based instability will be very limited, but some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/17/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 301233
SWODY1
SPC AC 301231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, southern
Florida, and central Utah. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving through the Upper
Great Lakes region and the other moving into the Upper Midwest, will
pivot eastward/northeastward today, with the second shortwave ending
the period extended from eastern Quebec through New England. Farther
west, another shortwave trough will drop southeastward through the
Great Basin. Evolution of these waves will promote continued upper
troughing across the western and central CONUS while the eastern
CONUS trends more zonal.

At the surface, a low associated with the Upper Great Lakes
shortwave is currently centered over Lower MI. An extensive cold
front extends southward from this low into northern KY before
shifting more southwestward and continuing to another surface low
just off the South TX Coast. The primary surface low is forecast to
progress northeastward across southeastern Ontario and eastern
Quebec while occluding throughout the day. As it does, northern and
central portions of the cold front will make steady
eastward/southeastward progress throughout the day, likely extending
from southern New England through the Carolina Piedmont by 00Z.
Southern portion of the front will also move eastward, but more
slowly, as a weak frontal low moves eastward along the immediate
central Gulf Coast.

Dry and stable conditions associated with a cold continental airmass
will preclude thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. A few
isolated thunderstorms are possible across the immediate
western/central Gulf Coast, where moderate low-level moisture
remains in place ahead of the cold front and/or surface low. A few
isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the southern/eastern
FL Peninsula amid moderate low-level moisture and weakly convergent
low-level easterly flow. Lastly, a few flashes could occur within
any deeper convection over central UT as the Great Basin shortwave
trough progresses across the region.

..Mosier/Dean.. 11/30/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 011246
SWODY1
SPC AC 011245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday
morning.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave
trough moving eastward through the Four Corners vicinity, within the
base of a larger upper trough that extends from the Upper MS Valley
through AZ. This shortwave is forecast to pivot eastward and then
northeastward throughout the period, moving across the
southern/central High Plains, OK/KS, and the Mid-South before ending
the period over the upper OH Valley. A strong mid-level jetlet (i.e.
90 kt at 500-mb) is anticipated within the base of this shortwave,
with a more expansive strengthening of the mid-level southwesterly
flow anticipated across much of area preceding the wave (i.e. from
the mid/lower MS Valley into much of the eastern CONUS).

Even with the strengthening wind fields aloft and large-scale ascent
attendant to this deepening wave, the limited time since the
previous frontal intrusion will keep any low-level moisture return
confined largely to the immediate Gulf Coast. Even so, a few
elevated thunderstorms are possible from this morning into the
afternoon across the TX Gulf Coast, with much of this activity
supported by ascent and warm-air advection attendant to a more
subtle, lower-amplitude shortwave currently moving into south TX.
Phasing of this lower-amplitude shortwave with the stronger
shortwave farther north will support a more expansive strengthening
of the low-level south-southwesterly flow late in the period. This
phasing will also contribute to a deepening of a surface low
progressing northeastward along a warm front moving northward into
the FL Panhandle. Some severe potential is possible late tonight
into early tomorrow as this surface low interacts with an
increasingly moist and buoyant airmass over the FL Panhandle.

...Coastal AL and FL Panhandle...
Most guidance brings mid 60s dewpoints into immediate coastal region
of AL and the FL Panhandle during the last 4 hours of the period
(08Z-12Z Tuesday), just ahead of the surface low. This increasing
low-level moisture should erode any low-level convective inhibition
and result in an airmass supportive of surface-based thunderstorms.
Buoyancy will be modest, but still sufficient, for deep updrafts,
amid veering low-level wind profiles and robust mid-level flow. As a
result, a few supercells could be maintained or develop as the warm
sector convection moves ashore from coastal AL across the FL
Panhandle. Primary risks with these storms are a brief tornado
and/or localized damaging gusts over the immediate coast. This
threat will continue past 12Z Tuesday into northern FL, which is
discussed in the Day 2 Convective Outlook.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Strengthening low-level flow will contribute to increasing warm-air
advection showers and thunderstorms late Monday through early
Tuesday. Consensus within the guidance keeps the higher low-level
moisture just offshore, and the majority of this activity will be
elevated atop a strong low-level inversion. This should temper the
overall severe potential. Immediate coastal regions south of MHX may
see higher dewpoints right at the end of the period, but any
stronger storms are still expected to remain offshore.

..Mosier/Dean.. 12/01/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 021245
SWODY1
SPC AC 021244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible mainly across the eastern
Florida Panhandle into northern Florida this morning. The stronger
storms could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Eastern FL Panhandle/northern FL...
Recent surface analysis placed a cold front from eastern TN to off
the far western FL Panhandle. A weak low precedes this front over
the central FL Panhandle, centered roughly 40 miles north of AAF. A
diffuse warm front extends northeastward from this low through
southern GA to just off the Carolina coast. This frontal low is
forecast to continue eastward today, weakening as it progresses
across far southern GA and eventually becomes absorbed into a broad
surface trough extending from the Carolinas.

Some deeper convection has been noted throughout the night within
the confined warm sector preceding this surface low as initially
more cellular activity has now congealed into more of a cluster.
Showers and occasional deeper updrafts capable of producing
lightning will remain possible ahead of the surface low as it moves
eastward. However, the overall intensity and duration of any deeper
updrafts will be tempered by limited buoyancy and a lack of stronger large-scale ascent. Even so, wind fields will remain strong and the
potential for a damaging gust and/or brief tornado will persist,
particularly with any of the more cellular convection that develops.

...Outer Banks...
A secondary surface low is beginning to develop just off the SC
coast. This low is expected to deepen throughout the day while
moving quickly northward along the immediate coast of NC before
becoming firmly offshore off the northern Mid-Atlantic. This track
should keep any notable surface-based buoyancy well offshore, where
the overall environment will favor supercells. A strong storm or two
may approach the Outer Banks region, where dewpoints could approach
the mid 60s just ahead of the surface low, but the general
expectation is for any strong to severe storms to remain offshore.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/02/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 031258
SWODY1
SPC AC 031256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across the
western Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are not expected.

...East/Southeast TX into Central/Southern LA...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined southern-stream
shortwave trough progressing southeastward along the southern CA/NV
border vicinity. This shortwave is forecast to continue
southeastward through the Lower CO River Valley region before then
pivoting more eastward across the Southwest. An extended fetch of
mid-level southwesterly flow preceding this wave is expected to
strengthen as it moves across the Southwest. At the same time,
southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will strengthen,
with an attendant increase in warm-air advection from the western
Gulf across the TX Coast into LA. This warm-air advection will help
support modest buoyancy atop a shallow stable layer, promoting
elevated thunderstorms from east/southeast TX into central and
southern LA.

Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to quickly increase in the 03Z to
04Z time frame across southeast TX before spreading eastward and
northeastward throughout the remainder of the period. Moderate to
strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend across this entire
region, supporting strong deep-layer shear. This strong shear could
support some occasionally stronger/more organized updrafts capable
of small hail. Even so, weak buoyancy should limit updraft strength
and duration, keeping any hail threat minimal. Mid 60s dewpoints may
advect onto the immediate middle and upper TX coast as a weak
surface low moves northeastward through the region. However, even
with these higher dewpoints, surface-based convective inhibition
will likely prevail given deep warm layer anticipated. This should
keep the tornado potential very low, despite substantial low-level storm-relative helicity.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/03/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 071234
SWODY1
SPC AC 071232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible
across parts of the Florida Peninsula late this afternoon and evening.

...Florida Peninsula...
Thunderstorms will develop today across the north-central to
northeast Gulf along a largely west-east oriented front. Downstream cloudiness/precipitation along and north of the front will support
pronounced differential heating across the north-central FL
Peninsula. Latest guidance continues to suggest that scattered
convection will move onshore late this afternoon/early evening
within broadly cyclonic flow aloft over the Southeast. Poor
mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor to convective
intensity (reference 12Z sounding from TBW). But, adequate
deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a
warm boundary layer forecast across central FL, a few strong gusts
capable of localized damaging winds are possible. Modest low-level
shear/SRH may also be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/07/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 131242
SWODY1
SPC AC 131240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Large-scale trough amplification will occur over the Midwest/East
through tonight, with expanding surface high pressure across the
Plains and Midwest in the wake of a cold front progressing
south-southeastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf
Coast by late tonight and early Sunday. Preceding the front, weak
warm/moist advection should allow for northeastward-expanding
thunderstorm development across southeast Texas and Louisiana today,
with potential persisting until the frontal passage tonight.

A low-latitude disturbance crossing the Gulf and a northward
moisture flux ahead of it will contribute to thunderstorm potential
across the Florida Keys/Florida Straits today, and also across the
southern Florida Peninsula tonight. Severe thunderstorms are
unlikely with these scenarios.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/13/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 161247
SWODY1
SPC AC 161245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe wind gusts may accompany isolated thunderstorms
across parts of the Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Pacific Northwest...
A vigorous lead shortwave trough will steadily amplify today and
reach the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. This will be
accompanied by a strong deep-layer wind field, highlighted by 90+ kt
winds at 500 mb and 50-80 kt winds within the lowest 1-3 km AGL.
This will be as Pacific moisture also steadily increases tonight in
tandem with the inland-advancing cold front. Low-topped convection
is expected to accompany the front, initially approaching the
Washington coast by late evening, and then more interior areas
overnight/early Wednesday. Surface-based buoyancy will remain
meager, but very strong gradient winds will shift from the southwest
to west-northwest as the front passes. Sporadic lightning flashes
and strong to severe-caliber wind gusts may accompany the passage of
this low-topped convective line, with the most intense low-level winds/convective influences expected to peak during the overnight
and early morning hours of Wednesday.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/16/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 311226
SWODY1
SPC AC 311225

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along coastal southern
California very late in the period.

...Southern CA...
A southern-stream upper-level trough will approach the southern CA
coast late tonight. Latest model guidance suggests increasing
large-scale ascent will approach the coast, contributing to isolated
convection along/ahead of a weak front as it surges inland,
primarily after 09z. Forecast soundings along the coast suggest
thunderstorms should be elevated in nature, with initial convection
likely rooted at or above 850mb. Weak buoyancy and shear suggests
minimal potential for severe storms prior to 12z Thursday.

..Bunting/Weinman.. 12/31/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 021258
SWODY1
SPC AC 021257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
moving within the broadly anticyclonic flow that covers much of the
CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is currently moving through eastern
OK and is forecast to continue progressing eastward throughout the
day, moving across the Mid-South and TN Valley. The westernmost
shortwave is currently moving into the Four Corners vicinity, with
continued southeastward progress anticipated throughout the day,
taking the wave through southern CO/northern NM, the TX Panhandle,
and OK/north TX. Recent surface analysis places a low over the
central TX/OK border region, with modest low-level moisture return
ongoing across the TX Gulf Coast and Lower MS Valley.

This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward in tandem with
its parent shortwave, ending the period over central AL. Broad
low-level moisture return will persist within the warm sector of
this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from
southern LA into central MS/AL by early tomorrow morning. Warm-air
advection across this warm sector is forecast to result in elevated
instability beginning in the late afternoon and persisting through
the evening and overnight. Elevated thunderstorms are anticipated
near the nose of the low-level jet where the warm-air advection will
be maximized. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region
and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm
organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft
depth and persistence, keeping the overall severe potential low.

Some surface-based instability is possible very late in the period
(09Z-12Z Saturday) from southeast LA into the FL Panhandle. Even so,
limited forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy should temper the
overall severe potential here as well with the greater severe risk
occurring later and further downstream on Day 2 (Saturday).

...Northern/Central CA...
A deep cyclone, currently over the western Pacific Ocean, is
forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs rotate through its southern and eastern periphery.
One of these shortwaves is forecast to reach the northern
CA/southern OR coast by late tonight. Strong ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures associated with this wave will support
showers and embedded thunderstorms across northern and central CA
tonight. The deepest convection is anticipated within a frontal band
forecast to reach the region between 04Z and 06Z. Robust wind fields
will accompany this shortwave as well, but the limited buoyancy
should temper the overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/02/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 071254
SWODY1
SPC AC 071253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the
early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas
northeastward into Oklahoma.

...Southwest TX into Central OK...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a compact cyclone just off the
coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. This cyclone is forecast to
move quickly eastward across southern AZ/NM and northern Mexico
throughout the day today, devolving into an open wave. This wave
will likely pivot into a more negative tilt by early tomorrow as it
moves across the southern High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany this wave, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of
the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau.

Significant mass response, and associated airmass modification, will
occur across the southern Plains ahead of the this low, with the
low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) currently confined to
the TX Coastal Plain and South TX likely reaching southern OK by
early tomorrow. Expectation is for ascent attendant to the
approaching shortwave to interact with the northwestern periphery of
this moisture return during the last few hours of the period (i.e.
08Z-12Z Wednesday), resulting in elevated thunderstorms from
southwest TX into central OK. Buoyancy will be modest (i.e. MUCAPE
from 500 to 1000 J/kg), fostered by a combination of steepening
mid-level lapse rates and increased low to mid-level moisture.
Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 60
kt) will be in place as well, supporting the potential that some of
these thunderstorms are more robust/organized. Given the low-level
stability, primary risk with the more organized storms is likely
hail, but some isolated gusts maybe be strong enough to penetrate
the low-level stability as well.

...Pacific Northwest...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward through
the Pacific Northwest today, followed closely by another southeastward-progressing shortwave that moves into northern CA.
Cold mid-level temperatures will foster scant buoyancy, and the
frontal band associated with this lead wave will likely feature some
deeper convective elements capable of producing lightning.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)