ACUS02 KWNS 230654
SWODY2
SPC AC 230652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TEXAS TO
FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday
afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central/southern
states on Monday with a second mid-level trough advancing from the
Northwest to the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will
dominate much of the eastern CONUS with broad low pressure across
the Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm front near the Gulf Coast
Monday morning will lift north through the day.

...East Texas to southern Arkansas...
Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period from north-central Texas to southern Arkansas to the north of
a warm front. Isolated large hail is possible with these storms, but
a more widespread threat is not expected during the morning. The
warm front will advect northward quickly through the day and lead to
moderate destabilization across the warm sector. A messy storm mode
is expected along the warm front for much of the day with some
marginal severe threat. The greatest severe weather threat should
begin by mid-afternoon as height falls overspread the warm sector
and slight mid-level cooling results in an uncapped warm sector.
This should result in scattered supercell development within the
open warm-sector by late afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet
(40-45 knots) is expected to overspread the warm sector during this
same timeframe. This may result in a brief window during the late
afternoon to early evening where a few tornadoes (perhaps strong)
could occur.

A nocturnal wind/tornado threat may persist into the late
evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture will help to
maintain an unstable boundary layer into the overnight period where cyclonically curved low-level hodographs will persist.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 080701
SWODY2
SPC AC 080659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF LA/MS
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from Louisiana into
parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.

...East TX into the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South...
In the wake of a departing mid/upper shortwave trough and surface
low, a cold front is forecast to slow down by afternoon and perhaps
become nearly stationary from near the ArkLaTex region to the
Mid-South. As an upstream mid/upper trough approaches from the west, cyclogenesis is expected along this front, with the surface low
expected to move east-northeastward toward the TN Valley by Saturday morning.

Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place within the warm
sector of this cyclone, and low-level and deep-layer shear will
increase with time as the frontal wave develops. However, guidance
continues to vary somewhat regarding the extent of phasing between
the approaching shortwave trough across the southern Plains and a
strong shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian
Prairies. There are also varying solutions regarding the coverage of
early-day convection, and the extent to which it hampers warm-sector destabilization as low-level and deep-layer shear strengthens.

Early-day storms within the modest warm-advection regime from east
TX into the lower MS Valley could pose a low-probability threat of
all severe hazards. An increase in the severe potential could evolve
from late afternoon into the evening, as low-level and deep-layer
shear begin to strengthen in response to the approaching trough.
Organized clusters and a few supercells will be possible, with an
attendant damaging-wind and tornado threat that may continue into
late Friday night. However, if early-day convection becomes
widespread with increasingly prominent outflow (as indicated by some
00Z HREF members), the magnitude and north/east extent of the
organized severe threat may be relatively limited. The greatest
relative confidence in an organized severe threat is currently
across parts of LA into central/southern MS, with a more conditional
threat to the north and east of this area.

..Dean.. 01/08/2026

$$
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