ACUS01 KWNS 181302
SWODY1
SPC AC 181300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
While organized severe potential may be limited today, isolated
strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the Lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening and/or across the
Carolinas late tonight.

...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
A prominent upper-level trough centered over the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest early this morning will continue to amplify and
spread east-southeastward, taking on a more negative tilt tonight
over the Midwest/Cumberland Plateau with intense 12-hr height falls
on the order of 210m. A robust low/mid-level wind field will
accompany this trough, especially into tonight with 60-80 kt winds
within the lowest 1-3km AGL coincident with the modifying warm
sector. But, only limited destabilization is expected ahead of the
front, with forecast soundings generally exhibiting meager
instability. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band of
frontal convection is expected to develop and spread eastward later
this afternoon into evening. Current thinking is a stable boundary
layer will minimize the risk of severe wind gusts near the surface,
but somewhat taller/more sustained storms could occur across the
Tennessee Valley including Middle/eastern Tennessee and much of
Alabama into parts of Georgia, with at least some convectively
enhanced wind gust potential, possibly to near-severe levels.

...Carolinas...
Some strong/locally severe storms could occur late tonight through
the predawn/early morning hours of Friday, attributable to an
increasingly negative-tilt upper-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the deep-layer wind field. The abatement and
modification of continental/cold air inland is a key uncertainty,
and some guidance such as 00z/06z NAM, may be a bit too aggressive,
albeit modest/weak overall, regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization. Primary concern is for the immediate coastal
areas/Outer Banks where somewhat greater airmass
modification/low-level moistening is more plausible. But it is also
possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize inland
(including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours..

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/18/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 011246
SWODY1
SPC AC 011245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday
morning.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave
trough moving eastward through the Four Corners vicinity, within the
base of a larger upper trough that extends from the Upper MS Valley
through AZ. This shortwave is forecast to pivot eastward and then
northeastward throughout the period, moving across the
southern/central High Plains, OK/KS, and the Mid-South before ending
the period over the upper OH Valley. A strong mid-level jetlet (i.e.
90 kt at 500-mb) is anticipated within the base of this shortwave,
with a more expansive strengthening of the mid-level southwesterly
flow anticipated across much of area preceding the wave (i.e. from
the mid/lower MS Valley into much of the eastern CONUS).

Even with the strengthening wind fields aloft and large-scale ascent
attendant to this deepening wave, the limited time since the
previous frontal intrusion will keep any low-level moisture return
confined largely to the immediate Gulf Coast. Even so, a few
elevated thunderstorms are possible from this morning into the
afternoon across the TX Gulf Coast, with much of this activity
supported by ascent and warm-air advection attendant to a more
subtle, lower-amplitude shortwave currently moving into south TX.
Phasing of this lower-amplitude shortwave with the stronger
shortwave farther north will support a more expansive strengthening
of the low-level south-southwesterly flow late in the period. This
phasing will also contribute to a deepening of a surface low
progressing northeastward along a warm front moving northward into
the FL Panhandle. Some severe potential is possible late tonight
into early tomorrow as this surface low interacts with an
increasingly moist and buoyant airmass over the FL Panhandle.

...Coastal AL and FL Panhandle...
Most guidance brings mid 60s dewpoints into immediate coastal region
of AL and the FL Panhandle during the last 4 hours of the period
(08Z-12Z Tuesday), just ahead of the surface low. This increasing
low-level moisture should erode any low-level convective inhibition
and result in an airmass supportive of surface-based thunderstorms.
Buoyancy will be modest, but still sufficient, for deep updrafts,
amid veering low-level wind profiles and robust mid-level flow. As a
result, a few supercells could be maintained or develop as the warm
sector convection moves ashore from coastal AL across the FL
Panhandle. Primary risks with these storms are a brief tornado
and/or localized damaging gusts over the immediate coast. This
threat will continue past 12Z Tuesday into northern FL, which is
discussed in the Day 2 Convective Outlook.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Strengthening low-level flow will contribute to increasing warm-air
advection showers and thunderstorms late Monday through early
Tuesday. Consensus within the guidance keeps the higher low-level
moisture just offshore, and the majority of this activity will be
elevated atop a strong low-level inversion. This should temper the
overall severe potential. Immediate coastal regions south of MHX may
see higher dewpoints right at the end of the period, but any
stronger storms are still expected to remain offshore.

..Mosier/Dean.. 12/01/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 021245
SWODY1
SPC AC 021244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible mainly across the eastern
Florida Panhandle into northern Florida this morning. The stronger
storms could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Eastern FL Panhandle/northern FL...
Recent surface analysis placed a cold front from eastern TN to off
the far western FL Panhandle. A weak low precedes this front over
the central FL Panhandle, centered roughly 40 miles north of AAF. A
diffuse warm front extends northeastward from this low through
southern GA to just off the Carolina coast. This frontal low is
forecast to continue eastward today, weakening as it progresses
across far southern GA and eventually becomes absorbed into a broad
surface trough extending from the Carolinas.

Some deeper convection has been noted throughout the night within
the confined warm sector preceding this surface low as initially
more cellular activity has now congealed into more of a cluster.
Showers and occasional deeper updrafts capable of producing
lightning will remain possible ahead of the surface low as it moves
eastward. However, the overall intensity and duration of any deeper
updrafts will be tempered by limited buoyancy and a lack of stronger large-scale ascent. Even so, wind fields will remain strong and the
potential for a damaging gust and/or brief tornado will persist,
particularly with any of the more cellular convection that develops.

...Outer Banks...
A secondary surface low is beginning to develop just off the SC
coast. This low is expected to deepen throughout the day while
moving quickly northward along the immediate coast of NC before
becoming firmly offshore off the northern Mid-Atlantic. This track
should keep any notable surface-based buoyancy well offshore, where
the overall environment will favor supercells. A strong storm or two
may approach the Outer Banks region, where dewpoints could approach
the mid 60s just ahead of the surface low, but the general
expectation is for any strong to severe storms to remain offshore.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/02/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 071234
SWODY1
SPC AC 071232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible
across parts of the Florida Peninsula late this afternoon and evening.

...Florida Peninsula...
Thunderstorms will develop today across the north-central to
northeast Gulf along a largely west-east oriented front. Downstream cloudiness/precipitation along and north of the front will support
pronounced differential heating across the north-central FL
Peninsula. Latest guidance continues to suggest that scattered
convection will move onshore late this afternoon/early evening
within broadly cyclonic flow aloft over the Southeast. Poor
mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor to convective
intensity (reference 12Z sounding from TBW). But, adequate
deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a
warm boundary layer forecast across central FL, a few strong gusts
capable of localized damaging winds are possible. Modest low-level
shear/SRH may also be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/07/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161247
SWODY1
SPC AC 161245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe wind gusts may accompany isolated thunderstorms
across parts of the Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Pacific Northwest...
A vigorous lead shortwave trough will steadily amplify today and
reach the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight. This will be
accompanied by a strong deep-layer wind field, highlighted by 90+ kt
winds at 500 mb and 50-80 kt winds within the lowest 1-3 km AGL.
This will be as Pacific moisture also steadily increases tonight in
tandem with the inland-advancing cold front. Low-topped convection
is expected to accompany the front, initially approaching the
Washington coast by late evening, and then more interior areas
overnight/early Wednesday. Surface-based buoyancy will remain
meager, but very strong gradient winds will shift from the southwest
to west-northwest as the front passes. Sporadic lightning flashes
and strong to severe-caliber wind gusts may accompany the passage of
this low-topped convective line, with the most intense low-level winds/convective influences expected to peak during the overnight
and early morning hours of Wednesday.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/16/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 171257
SWODY1
SPC AC 171255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe wind gusts may accompany low-topped convection
across parts of the Northwest and northern Intermountain region this
morning into midday.

...Northwest/Northern Intermountain region...
A progressive/vigorous shortwave trough will continue to modestly
amplify and otherwise race east-southeastward from the
Washington/British Columbia border vicinity this morning to the
northern Plains tonight. Intense deep-tropospheric flow (highlighted
by 55-85 kt at 700 mb) will accompany this wave, yielding widespread
high winds across much of the Northwest to the northern Great Plains.

Low-topped convection, occasionally capable of lightning and
semi-organized line segments, will continue in association with the east/southeastward-advancing cold front, with convection potentially
expanding by late morning towards the Snake River Plain/Yellowstone
vicinity and potentially other parts of the northeast Great Basin by
afternoon. Surface-based instability will be very limited, but some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/17/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 171236
SWODY1
SPC AC 171234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms should occur this evening and overnight
across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across
the Southwest and central California. A few strong thunderstorms may
occur across parts of Missouri and southern Illinois late tonight,
but organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Synopsis...
A pair of upper troughs/lows will impact the CONUS today. The
leading upper trough/low will progress eastward over the central
Plains though this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley
late tonight. Farther west, a separate upper trough/low will develop
slowly southward across coastal CA through the period. With
seasonably cool temperatures and modestly steepened lapse rates
aloft associated with the western U.S. trough/low, isolated
thunderstorms may occur across parts of CA and the lower CO River
Valley/AZ. Meager instability across these areas should limit the
threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Father east, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms should develop this evening/overnight from
portions of the northern/central Plains into the MO and mid MS
Valleys. The bulk of this activity is expected to remain elevated,
with minimal severe potential.

...Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the
southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley ahead of a weak surface low
and cold front related to the lead upper trough/low. Latest NAM/RAP
forecast soundings across the surface warm sector this
afternoon/evening continue to show a substantial cap in place, which
combined with negligible large-scale ascent should act to inhibit
surface-based convective development. Low-level warm/moist advection
is expected to increase this evening/overnight as a southwesterly
low-level jet strengthens over the Ozarks/mid MS Valley. Most
guidance shows weak MUCAPE (around 500-1000 J/kg) with modest
mid-level lapse rates present. This should tend to limit the updraft
strength of scattered elevated convection that is forecast develop
tonight across MO into parts of southern IL, even in the presence of
moderate to strong deep-layer shear. While small/sub-severe hail may
occur with the stronger cores, the threat for severe hail appears
too limited to include low probabilities with this update.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/17/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 181238
SWODY1
SPC AC 181236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley region today.

...Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...
Elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning across the mid MS/lower
OH Valley are being aided by a southwesterly low-level jet and
related warm/moist advection. This activity may pose an isolated
hail threat as it tracks eastward this morning across the lower OH
Valley before eventually encountering a less unstable airmass. A
mid-level shortwave trough will advance eastward across the
Midwest/mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through this evening. A
weak surface low attendant to this shortwave trough will likewise
develop east-southeastward across MO into the lower OH Valley while
gradually weakening. Low-level moisture will return northward across
this region ahead of a east-southeastward advancing cold front.

Current expectations are for some re-intensification of convection
to occur this afternoon across the southern IL/western KY vicinity
as strong ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads
this region. There is still some uncertainty with how far north the
surface warm sector will be able to advance, and daytime heating may
be muted by persistent cloudiness. But, the best combination of weak
to locally moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear
should overlap across the mid MS/lower OH Valley this afternoon and
evening as a 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level jet moves across these
areas. Any sustained supercell may be capable of producing severe
hail along with locally damaging winds, with elevated convection
possible north of the warm front into central IL/southern IN. Some
threat for a tornado or two may also exist if sufficient
boundary-layer instability can advance far enough northward in
tandem with the warm front and enhanced low-level shear to support surface-based thunderstorms. No changes have been made to the
Marginal Risk with this update. Confidence in a more concentrated
corridor of severe risk was not high enough to include greater
severe probabilities at this time, but trends will be monitored.

...Lower Colorado River Valley/Arizona...
A closed mid/upper-level low along the coast of central/southern CA
will make only slow progress southward today. Large-scale ascent
associated with a south-southwesterly mid-level jet should encourage
convective development today across parts of the lower CO River
Valley and AZ. While deep-layer shear appears adequate for organized
updrafts, weak instability will likely limit the overall severe
threat across this region.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/18/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 191241
SWODY1
SPC AC 191240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible across the southern
Plains into parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional gusty
winds and perhaps a tornado or two may also occur.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the lower
CO River Valley and Southwest today into tonight. Enhanced
southwesterly mid-level flow will persist across much of the
southern Plains into the Ozarks and vicinity through the period. A
moist low-level airmass in place across south/central TX this
morning will advance slowly northward across north TX and OK/AR in
tandem with a surface warm front. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur
this evening and overnight across west TX as large-scale ascent
preceding the slow-moving upper trough eventually overspreads the
southern Plains. Nebulous forcing for much of the day casts
significant uncertainty on convective development across the warm
sector until later this evening.

Still, it appears likely that thunderstorms will gradually increase
in coverage this evening into early Thursday morning across the
southern Plains with the approach of the upper trough. Modest
low-level warm advection in the vicinity of the warm front and a
developing dryline across west TX may also aid in convective
development this evening. Most guidance continues to show moderate
instability in place along/near these boundaries, with modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present. This favorable
thermodynamic environment, coupled with moderate to strong
deep-layer shear given the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, should
promote organized updrafts.

Current expectations are for a mix of supercells and multicells to
develop and pose an isolated threat for mainly large hail. Where
convection can remain surface-based this evening, some threat for
occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two should also
exist. With time, updraft interactions/mergers should result in a
messy convective mode, especially with elevated thunderstorms to the
north of the warm front. Still, at least some risk for severe hail
may persist for much of the overnight/early Thursday morning period
with this activity as it spreads east-northeastward across the
southern Plains and parts of the Ozarks.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
Cool mid-level temperatures will be in place over the Southwest as
the upper trough progresses slowly eastward. Weak instability may
develop across parts of southeast AZ/southwest NM and vicinity with
filtered daytime heating. While small hail could occur with the
stronger cores that develop this afternoon across this region,
modest low-level moisture and buoyancy should limit the overall
severe threat.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/19/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 201242
SWODY1
SPC AC 201240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this
evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.

...Southern Plains into Arkansas...
A mid/upper-level trough extending from the Southwest into northern
Mexico this morning will eject northeastward across parts of the
southern Plains today. In response, a surface low will gradually
deepen across the south-central High Plains and develop eastward
through the period. A front extending across parts of OK/AR this
morning will lift slowly northward as a warm front ahead of the
surface low. Thunderstorms ongoing across parts of the southern
Plains/ArkLaTex this morning are being aided by a modest low-level
jet and ascent attendant to the approaching upper trough. Weak to
locally moderate instability and effective shear of 40-50 kt may
support a few strong to severe thunderstorms this morning from parts
of eastern NM into west/central TX and OK, with a threat for mainly
isolated hail and locally gusty winds.

Convection and widespread cloud cover will likely persist through
the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal heating and weakening
mid-level lapse rates with time. While enhanced deep-layer shear
will remain across the warm sector owing to persistent strong
southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for organized
thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning
convection remains uncertain. Still, depending on the extent of
heating and related destabilization, most guidance continues to show
some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized multicell
clusters this afternoon/evening across portions of TX, with a threat
of isolated severe hail and damaging winds. Modest enlargement of
low-level hodographs with time could also support a tornado threat
from parts of central/east TX into eastern OK/western AR along and
south of the warm front, assuming surface-based supercells can be
sustained. An isolated severe risk may persist into east TX and the
ArkLaTex tonight. However, confidence in a corridor of greater
severe risk remains too low to include higher severe probabilities
at this time.

Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the
development of a modestly organized convective line across far
eastern NM into west TX during the afternoon/evening, in closer
proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could pose a
threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains
uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to
support a severe threat. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk
across this region with only minor changes.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/20/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211259
SWODY1
SPC AC 211257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into
tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and
northern Alabama.

...MS/AL/TN/KY...
Early morning water vapor imagery shows broad west-southwesterly
flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the southeast
states. A southern-stream shortwave trough is noted over LA/AR,
which will traverse across the mid-South and TN Valley today.
Multiple areas of precipitation will be present along/ahead of this
feature, with forecast soundings showing weak-but-sufficient CAPE
for a few thunderstorm clusters. Mid-level lapse rates are weak,
suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
forecast hodographs show strong low-level shear today from eastern
MS across parts of AL/Middle TN and southeast KY. This could be
enough for one or two rotating cells capable of a tornado or
damaging wind event. The overall threat appears marginal at this time.

The primary surface cold front will move into this region after dark
tonight, with another round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the front. Low-level winds are expected to somewhat veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado or two and/or gusty winds will continue.

...Southern CA...
An upper low is centered off the coast of southern CA today, with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing. This trend
will continue through the day, with some risk of a few robust
thunderstorms affecting coastal areas. Onshore instability and
low-level shear are expected to remain weak, suggesting organized
severe storms are unlikely.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/21/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221236
SWODY1
SPC AC 221234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may
occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm
potential appears low.

...TX to SE States...
A zonal flow pattern is present today over the eastern half of the
CONUS, with a surface cold front moving across the TN Valley into
the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of
the front from east TX into much of the southeast states today and
tonight, but the risk of severe activity is low.

...Southwest States...
A compact upper low will track eastward across Baja California this
afternoon, with an associated mid-level cold pocket affecting
northwest Mexico and the Four-Corners states. Model guidance agrees
that scattered thunderstorms will affect these areas by late
afternoon and through the evening. A few of the HREF members
indicate some risk of strong storms with small hail and gusty winds
over southeast AZ. However, forecast soundings do not appear
sufficient to warrant severe probabilities at time.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/22/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 301233
SWODY1
SPC AC 301231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, southern
Florida, and central Utah. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving through the Upper
Great Lakes region and the other moving into the Upper Midwest, will
pivot eastward/northeastward today, with the second shortwave ending
the period extended from eastern Quebec through New England. Farther
west, another shortwave trough will drop southeastward through the
Great Basin. Evolution of these waves will promote continued upper
troughing across the western and central CONUS while the eastern
CONUS trends more zonal.

At the surface, a low associated with the Upper Great Lakes
shortwave is currently centered over Lower MI. An extensive cold
front extends southward from this low into northern KY before
shifting more southwestward and continuing to another surface low
just off the South TX Coast. The primary surface low is forecast to
progress northeastward across southeastern Ontario and eastern
Quebec while occluding throughout the day. As it does, northern and
central portions of the cold front will make steady
eastward/southeastward progress throughout the day, likely extending
from southern New England through the Carolina Piedmont by 00Z.
Southern portion of the front will also move eastward, but more
slowly, as a weak frontal low moves eastward along the immediate
central Gulf Coast.

Dry and stable conditions associated with a cold continental airmass
will preclude thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. A few
isolated thunderstorms are possible across the immediate
western/central Gulf Coast, where moderate low-level moisture
remains in place ahead of the cold front and/or surface low. A few
isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the southern/eastern
FL Peninsula amid moderate low-level moisture and weakly convergent
low-level easterly flow. Lastly, a few flashes could occur within
any deeper convection over central UT as the Great Basin shortwave
trough progresses across the region.

..Mosier/Dean.. 11/30/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 191255
SWODY1
SPC AC 191254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today.

...North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States...
A prominent upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley will continue to take on a negative tilt as it quickly
transitions east-northeastward toward New England the Canadian
Maritimes tonight. A very strong deep-layer wind field (80-110 kt at
500 mb) is attendant to this trough, with these strong winds aloft
partially overlapping a modestly moist/minimally unstable warm
sector along the I-95 corridor/East Coast ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front. A strongly forced semi-organized
low-topped convective line, with little or no lightning flashes, is
ongoing around sunrise across northeast North Carolina and southeast
Virginia, and this may further develop north-northeastward across
additional portions of the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. Even
with minimal buoyancy, some stronger/locally severe wind gusts could
occur this morning, and possibly through early afternoon across
parts of the near-coastal Northeast.

..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/19/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221252
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
The next shortwave trough and associated cold front are expected to
advance inland across British Columbia/coastal Washington by this
evening. A related plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will
contribute to weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning
flashes with low-topped convection. Elsewhere across the West, a few
lightning flashes have been noted early this morning across the
California Sierra, and this scenario may continue today within a
moisture-rich plume with weak buoyancy.

A weak mid-level disturbance over the western Gulf and coastal
Mexico, along with a moist air mass (reference 12z Brownsville
observed sounding) to the south of a slow-moving front, may allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop into/across Deep South Texas.
Similar to morning RAOB/WSR-88D VWP observations, forecast soundings
suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, such that any
convection that evolves across this region should remain below
severe levels.

..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/22/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 311226
SWODY1
SPC AC 311225

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along coastal southern
California very late in the period.

...Southern CA...
A southern-stream upper-level trough will approach the southern CA
coast late tonight. Latest model guidance suggests increasing
large-scale ascent will approach the coast, contributing to isolated
convection along/ahead of a weak front as it surges inland,
primarily after 09z. Forecast soundings along the coast suggest
thunderstorms should be elevated in nature, with initial convection
likely rooted at or above 850mb. Weak buoyancy and shear suggests
minimal potential for severe storms prior to 12z Thursday.

..Bunting/Weinman.. 12/31/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 021258
SWODY1
SPC AC 021257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
moving within the broadly anticyclonic flow that covers much of the
CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is currently moving through eastern
OK and is forecast to continue progressing eastward throughout the
day, moving across the Mid-South and TN Valley. The westernmost
shortwave is currently moving into the Four Corners vicinity, with
continued southeastward progress anticipated throughout the day,
taking the wave through southern CO/northern NM, the TX Panhandle,
and OK/north TX. Recent surface analysis places a low over the
central TX/OK border region, with modest low-level moisture return
ongoing across the TX Gulf Coast and Lower MS Valley.

This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward in tandem with
its parent shortwave, ending the period over central AL. Broad
low-level moisture return will persist within the warm sector of
this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from
southern LA into central MS/AL by early tomorrow morning. Warm-air
advection across this warm sector is forecast to result in elevated
instability beginning in the late afternoon and persisting through
the evening and overnight. Elevated thunderstorms are anticipated
near the nose of the low-level jet where the warm-air advection will
be maximized. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region
and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm
organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft
depth and persistence, keeping the overall severe potential low.

Some surface-based instability is possible very late in the period
(09Z-12Z Saturday) from southeast LA into the FL Panhandle. Even so,
limited forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy should temper the
overall severe potential here as well with the greater severe risk
occurring later and further downstream on Day 2 (Saturday).

...Northern/Central CA...
A deep cyclone, currently over the western Pacific Ocean, is
forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs rotate through its southern and eastern periphery.
One of these shortwaves is forecast to reach the northern
CA/southern OR coast by late tonight. Strong ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures associated with this wave will support
showers and embedded thunderstorms across northern and central CA
tonight. The deepest convection is anticipated within a frontal band
forecast to reach the region between 04Z and 06Z. Robust wind fields
will accompany this shortwave as well, but the limited buoyancy
should temper the overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/02/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 071254
SWODY1
SPC AC 071253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the
early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas
northeastward into Oklahoma.

...Southwest TX into Central OK...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a compact cyclone just off the
coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. This cyclone is forecast to
move quickly eastward across southern AZ/NM and northern Mexico
throughout the day today, devolving into an open wave. This wave
will likely pivot into a more negative tilt by early tomorrow as it
moves across the southern High Plains. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany this wave, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of
the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau.

Significant mass response, and associated airmass modification, will
occur across the southern Plains ahead of the this low, with the
low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) currently confined to
the TX Coastal Plain and South TX likely reaching southern OK by
early tomorrow. Expectation is for ascent attendant to the
approaching shortwave to interact with the northwestern periphery of
this moisture return during the last few hours of the period (i.e.
08Z-12Z Wednesday), resulting in elevated thunderstorms from
southwest TX into central OK. Buoyancy will be modest (i.e. MUCAPE
from 500 to 1000 J/kg), fostered by a combination of steepening
mid-level lapse rates and increased low to mid-level moisture.
Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 60
kt) will be in place as well, supporting the potential that some of
these thunderstorms are more robust/organized. Given the low-level
stability, primary risk with the more organized storms is likely
hail, but some isolated gusts maybe be strong enough to penetrate
the low-level stability as well.

...Pacific Northwest...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward through
the Pacific Northwest today, followed closely by another southeastward-progressing shortwave that moves into northern CA.
Cold mid-level temperatures will foster scant buoyancy, and the
frontal band associated with this lead wave will likely feature some
deeper convective elements capable of producing lightning.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/07/2026

$$
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