ACUS01 KWNS 281302
SWODY1
SPC AC 281300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ILLINOIS TO INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over Illinois and
Indiana this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts
capable of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes are the primary threats.

...Mid MS Valley east through IN-OH-western PA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low near the
MT/ND border with a trough into the central Rockies/Sangre de
Cristos. This mid-level low will move into the central Great Lakes
by early Monday morning. Strong southwesterly 500-mb flow (80 kt)
extending from the base of the trough through the lower MO Valley
and OH Valley will feature an intensifying 110-kt jet reaching the
MO-IL border this evening before further strengthening to 130 kt
over OH by the end of the period.

A surface low over eastern KS will deepen rapidly through tonight as
it moves to Lake Huron. A frontal zone extending east-northeast
through the southern Great Lakes this morning will serve as the
northern edge of the moist sector. A cold front initially over
KS-OK will surge south-east. Southerly low-level flow across the
moist sector will maintain a fetch of seasonably high 58-62 deg F
dewpoints immediately ahead of the front/low.

A rain shield with embedded thunderstorms this morning from northern
MO into the southern Great Lakes could feature a stronger storm or
two through midday, but the primary severe risk will likely focus
this afternoon through tonight. Model guidance indicates the cap
will erode near the evolving triple point and cold front by mid-late
afternoon. Upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across parts
of central into eastern IL with buoyancy tapering with east extent
across the OH Valley. A southward-developing convective band is
forecast to evolve late this afternoon through the early evening.
Long hodographs and strong 2-3 km flow will favor a risk for severe
gusts with the more intense storms and surges with the maturing
band. Models indicate the wind-damage threat may persist across the
OH Valley/southern Great Lakes tonight despite meager instability.
The tornado risk appears highest with cells that can develop near
the instability axis and mature before either destructive
interference of the larger-scale cold pool overwhelms cellular mode,
and/or this activity moves farther east into lessening instability.

..Smith/Weinman.. 12/28/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 281947
SWODY1
SPC AC 281946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Midwest and lower Ohio Valley this afternoon through the evening. Severe/damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes are the primary threats.

...20Z Update...
The only change to the outlook for this issuance is to trim the
Marginal Risk area across parts of north-central Illinois behind a
cold front that is moving southeastward across the region.

..Broyles.. 12/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025/

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
An upper trough/low over the northern Plains this morning will
further intensify today as it develops towards the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. Pronounced large-scale
ascent associated with a strengthening mid/upper jet (100-120 kt at
500 mb) over the mid MS Valley into IL/IN will encourage rapid
deepening of a surface low as it develops from central/northern IL
into Lower MI by this evening. A rather moist low-level airmass with
generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints will continue to
spread northward across the mid MS Valley into parts of the
Midwest/OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions in tandem with a northward-shifting surface warm front. A cold front is also expected
to sweep east-southeastward across these regions this
afternoon/evening as the surface low tracks northeastward. This cold
front should serve as a focus for strong to severe convection later today.

The 12Z ILX sounding showed a moist but saturated profile through
much of the troposphere, with strong west-southwesterly
mid/upper-level winds already present over the warm sector. Current expectations
are for ongoing, mostly elevated convection across
central IL to pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to locally
severe gusts given the strength of the mid-level flow. This activity
may linger along/just north the warm front through the afternoon as
it spreads quickly east-northeastward into IN. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to form along/near the cold front across
IL and vicinity by 20-22Z as modest/filtered daytime heating occurs,
with come cloud breaks already noted in visible satellite imagery
across east-central MO/south-central IL. It does appear that surface temperatures are warming faster/more than forecast by some guidance
across the warm sector in IL, with 16Z observations at some stations
already reaching into the upper 60s/low 70s.

The more aggressive 12Z guidance and recent RAP runs suggest that
around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE may ultimately develop in a narrow
corridor across eastern IL and western IN/KY ahead of the front,
even though modest lapse rates aloft will likely inhibit more robust destabilization. This weak instability should be sufficient to
support organized updrafts, as both low-level and deep-layer shear
will be quite strong owing to the strengthening wind profiles across
the warm sector this afternoon/evening with the approaching
mid/upper-jet. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
potential for pre-frontal convection. But, any low-topped supercells
that can form and be sustained should pose a threat for a couple of
tornadoes with upwards of 200-250 m2/s2 of effective SRH present.
Eventual development of a thin/forced line of convection along the
cold front appears likely, with a threat for scattered
severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of embedded tornadoes. At
least an isolated severe threat may persist this evening/tonight
across the OH Valley and parts of western PA, where low-level flow
is forecast to remain quite strong even with minimal instability.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 081236
SWODY1
SPC AC 081235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OK...FAR SOUTHEAST KS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and a
brief tornado will be possible today into tonight from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough continues to move quickly eastward into the
southern High Plains, with a lead vorticity maximum also noted on
satellite imagery over northwest TX. Regional radar imagery shows a
line of thunderstorms along the leading edge of this vorticity
maximum. Expectation is for both the shortwave trough and lead
vorticity maximum to continue quickly northeastward, resulting in
strong forcing for ascent from OK through the Ozark Plateau and into
the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys today. Low-level moisture advection
ahead of this wave will support modest buoyancy, with thunderstorms
anticipated across much of this region throughout the period.

Another shortwave trough is dropping quickly southward through CA,
and is expected to pivot eastward through southern CA and AZ this
evening. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this
wave as well.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
As previously mentioned, a lead vorticity maximum is likely
supporting the line of thunderstorms currently ongoing from
southwest OK into southwest TX. Expectation is for this line to
continue northeastward today, into an airmass that is quickly
modifying amid strong low-level moisture advection. Many sites in OK
are observing dewpoints 25 to 35 deg F higher than 24 hours ago.
Thunderstorms within the line are currently elevated, but there
could be a trend towards a more surface-based character over the
next few hours amid a combination of increasing low-level moisture
and cooling mid-level temperatures. This appears most likely from
central OK through northeast OK into far southwest MO and far
southeast KS, from around 13Z through 18Z. After 18Z, the quick
progression of the shortwave will likely lead to an outpacing of the
better low-level moisture return, with dewpoints across much of MO
maxing out around 58-60 deg F.

Given the robust shear already in place (recent KTLX VAD sampled
over 35 kt of 0-1 km shear and over 55 kt of 0-6 km shear), this
potential for surface-based storms will increase the overall risk
for damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado. Recently issued MCD
#0006 addresses the near-term severe potential across this region.

...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...
Low-level moisture will be lower here than areas farther south,
likely remaining the 50s, but strong forcing for ascent and robust
wind fields could still result in damaging gusts, particularly near
and just ahead of the surface low forecast to move quickly
northeastward from central KS through northwest MO, southern/eastern
IA, and southern WI. Wind probabilities were expanded northwestward
given anticipated track of the surface low. Strong gusts also remain
possible along the cold front associated with this low, but limited
low-level moisture and buoyancy should keep this time isolated as well.

...Southern AZ...
A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to
progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place
ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest
mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the
potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level
flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible.
However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.

...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley...
Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z
when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated
thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be
strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/08/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091202
SWODY1
SPC AC 091201

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the
central Gulf states.

...MS/AL This morning...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
parts of MS. This activity is in a moist surface air mass with
dewpoints in the mid 60s, and MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. VAD
profiles suggest sufficient low-level shear for some concern for a
tornado or two this morning as activity tracks northeastward into
western AL. However, model forecast soundings suggest a warm layer
in the 600-700mb layer that is likely limiting updraft strength and
the overall severe risk.

...TX/LA This Afternoon...
Strong, broad southwesterly flow aloft will be present across much
of the southeastern United States today, with several small
perturbations embedded within the flow. A quasi-stationary front is
currently positioned from south TX into southern AR. The air mass
southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to
scattered thunderstorm development. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and
sufficient deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe
storms capable of damaging winds and hail.

...LA/MS This Afternoon/Evening...
By late afternoon, ample daytime heating/destabilization will lead
to scattered thunderstorms over LA, spreading northeastward into MS.
Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but slowly strengthening
low-level winds and shear will pose a risk of a few severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

...Southern MS/AL Overnight...
The consensus of CAM solutions suggest that storms will become
focused along a surface baroclinic zone late tonight from southeast
MS into southern AL. During this period, most models suggest
significant strengthening of the southerly low-level jet, with
forecast hodographs becoming increasingly favorable for supercells
and a few tornadoes - despite marginal thermodynamic support.

..Hart/Kerr.. 01/09/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101215
SWODY1
SPC AC 101214

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO WESTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast this morning and early
afternoon from LA/MS into AL/GA.

...LA/MS/AL/GA...
Strong and deep southwesterly flow is present today over much of the
southeast US, with a well-defined baroclinic zone extending from
central LA across parts of MS/AL into northern GA. Thunderstorms
have been intensifying in the past few hours across southeast MS,
where multiple supercell structures and a couple of confirmed
tornadoes have occurred. This activity is expected to persist for
several more hours, tracking across parts of central AL and
eventually into western GA. Low-level winds and shear have become
sufficiently strong to support risk of a strong tornado or two along
this corridor.

By early afternoon, storms will spread eastward into GA and upstate
SC, where very weak instability will limit the severe threat.

..Hart/Kerr.. 01/10/2026

$$
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