ACUS01 KWNS 291238
SWODY1
SPC AC 291237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east
and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
the central Plains, with another shortwave in its wake over central
WY. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward,
reaching MO by this afternoon before then pivoting more
northeastward from the Mid MS Valley into Lower MI. This progression
will be accompanied by a strengthening of the mid-level flow as it
spreads from the central Plains into the OH and TN Valleys.

A surface low, recently analyzed over central KS, will accompany the
lead shortwave as well, moving rapidly northeastward across MO and
IL before ending the period over Lower MI. A cold front attendant to
this low will sweep eastward across the Ozarks and southeastward
across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. A large area of
elevated thunderstorms is expected from the Arklatex into the Mid MS
Valley, supported by strong southwesterly low-level flow and
associated warm-air advection ahead of the front. More intense and
potentially severe storms are anticipated along and ahead of the
front across central/east TX and western LA.

...Central/East TX...Western LA...
Recent surface analysis placed mid 50s dewpoints as far north as the
TX Big Country, with 60s dewpoints farther south in the TX Hill
Country. Low-level moisture advection is forecast to continue
throughout the day, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching the Red River
and low 60s dewpoints likely reaching the Metroplex vicinity ahead
of the cold front. Primary thunderstorm activity is anticipated
along the front as it interacts with the modestly moist and buoyant
airmass ahead of it. Moderate mid-level flow is expected, but the
fast-moving front will still likely lead to a prevalence of undercut
updrafts. Even so, sufficient deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) could
support a few stronger clusters as a broken line develops and surges
south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some damaging gusts are possible
as the front moves quickly toward the coast and reaches the Gulf
early Sunday morning.

There is a low-probability chance that thunderstorms develop from
the TX Hill Country into the Brazos Valley during the afternoon,
supported by low-level confluence within a diurnally destabilized
airmass. If any of these updrafts are able to mature, there is
enough low-level curvature to support transient supercell structures
along with occasionally organized multicells. A brief tornado and
marginally severe hail are possible with any stronger,
longer-duration updrafts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 11/29/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 031241
SWODY1
SPC AC 031240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast
today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of
northern California and southwest Oregon.

...Southeast/Central Gulf Coast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing southeastward across northeast TX towards the Lower MS Valley.
Expectation is for this wave to continue southeastward through the
Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast before eventually moving off
the Southeast coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Surface analysis
places a low associated with this wave over east TX, with another
low farther east over central AL. A modest stationary front
currently extends between these lows. This front will transition to
a cold front this morning, progressing southeastward as the surface
lows also move southeastward ahead of the approaching shortwave. Mid
60s dewpoints are in place ahead of this front from the Upper TX
Coast through southern LA into southern MS/AL. Given the presence of
the stationary front, this is likely near the northern extent of
this greater low-level moisture.

Diurnal heating will be limited by cloud cover, but the general
expectation is for modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching cold
front. This buoyancy will support scattered thunderstorm development
along the front as it moves through the region. Low-level flow will
likely veer ahead of the front, limiting low-level curvature. Even
so, strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across
the region, resulting in long hodographs that could support
occasional organized updrafts. Primary severe risk will be isolated
damaging gusts, although a low-probability risk for a brief tornado
exists as well. Some isolated hail could also occur, particularly
with any storms near the surface low over southern AL and the
western FL Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening when
colder mid-level temperatures are in place.

...Northern/Central California into Southwest Oregon...
Another shortwave trough is forecast to quickly rotate through the
base of the cyclone off the Northwest coast, reaching the northern
CA/southern OR coast this afternoon. Deep and robust southwesterly
flow is currently in place across much of the region. Some weakening
is possible throughout the day, but deep-layer vertical shear should
remain more than sufficient for rotating storms. However, very
limited buoyancy will temper updraft strength and duration, keeping
the overall severe potential low. Greatest chance for damaging gusts
is expected with any deeper convection that develops as the primary
forcing for ascent spreads into the northern CA and southwest OR
coasts this afternoon. Additionally, southerly low-level flow up the
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in enough
low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell capable of
a brief tornado.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/03/2026

$$
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