026
AXNT20 KNHC 292227
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2225 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A surface trough, currently
analyzed from 15N to 25N along 45W, will merge with another
surface trough currently analyzed from 08N to 15N along 50W. The
combined trough will advance westward across the tropical and
subtropical central Atlantic, and bring fresh to strong E winds
across most of the waters from 15N to 30N east of 60W through
Monday. These winds will build seas to 8-12 ft in the described
area by Monday. Late on Monday, winds and seas will begin to
diminish as the trough weakens and continues westward to 65W. This
pattern is partly associated with a broad upper level trough
across the central Atlantic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 07N11W and continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N20W to 07N48W. A few showers are seen near these
boundaries.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Strong high pressure centered over the eastern United States
dominates the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressures associated with the stationary front in
the NW Caribbean and SW North Atlantic result in fresh to strong
NE winds in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas in these waters
are 5-8 ft. In the western Gulf, moderate to fresh southerly winds
and seas of 5-7 ft are noted west of 94W. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the winds in the SE Gulf will diminish Sun as
the aforementioned front dissipates. In the NW Gulf, fresh to
locally strong SE winds an approaching cold front over Texas. This
front will move offshore Mon, stall Mon night into Tue, when a
low pressure will form off Texas and move NE into the SE U.S.
Thereafter, the front will move SE farther into the basin, but
then stall into late week as another low forms over Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is draped across the NW Caribbean, extending
from central Cuba to Belize. Divergence aloft and tropical
moisture result in scattered showers over the central Caribbean,
also affecting eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring in the
central, SW and eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds and locally rough seas in the far NW
basin will diminish tonight as a stationary front dissipates.
Elsewhere, high pressure in the Central Atlantic will contribute
to moderate to fresh trades, which will diminish for the start of
next week as the high shifts east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas
and central Cuba. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the
front. Strong high pressure centered over North Carolina continues
to force fresh to strong NE winds to the west of the front across
the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Seas are 8-10 ft from 25N
to 29N between 66W and 76W. Seas are 4-8 ft elsewhere in the W
Atlantic. Elsewhere across the basin, aside from the SPECIAL
FEATURE, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
dissipate through Sun, and high pressure north of the front will
shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak
front will stall off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas
north of 29N and west of 75W Tue as low pressure moves from the
northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong
southerly winds will shift eastward north of 28N ahead of a cold
front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night into Wed.
This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed.
Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough
moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands
Sun through Tue night.

$$
Delgado

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114
AXNT20 KNHC 300453
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0453 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A broad surface trough currently
analyzed along 48W is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds
and seas 8 to 10 ft from 19N to 27N between 35W and 54W. The
trough will continue to advance westward into the waters north of
the Leeward Islands Sun trough Tue night, and bring fresh to
strong E winds across most of the waters from 16N to 30N east of
60W through Monday. Seas within these waters will build to 8 to 13
ft. Late on Monday, winds and seas will begin to diminish as the
trough weakens and continues westward to 65W. This pattern is
partly associated with a broad upper level trough across the
central Atlantic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 09N13W and
continues to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 08N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02.5N to 13.5N
east of 15W. Similar convection is depicted along the ITCZ between
21.5W and 41W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Strong high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic coast of the
U.S. dominates the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressures associated with the stationary
front in the NW Caribbean and SW North Atlantic result in fresh to
strong NE winds in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft. In the western Gulf, moderate to fresh SE
winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted west of 94.5W. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure centered
mid- Atlantic coast of the U.S. and a stationary front southeast
of the basin is supporting fresh to strong winds in the Florida
Straits and far southeast Gulf. These winds persist over the far
western Gulf ahead of an approaching cold front over Texas. This
front will move offshore Mon, stall Mon night into Tue, when a low
pressure will form off Texas and move northeastward across the
southeast U.S. into the northwest Atlantic. Thereafter, the front
will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall
into late week as another low forms over Texas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front across the NW Caribbean extends
from central Cuba to Belize. Divergence aloft and tropical
moisture are supporting scattered showers over the central
Caribbean, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring in the
central, and eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front from central Cuba to Belize
is dissipating. High pressure over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin
through the early part of the week. Winds and seas will diminish
by mid week as the high shifts east.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from just E of Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted along the front. Strong high pressure centered over
mid- Atlantic coast of the U.S. continues to force fresh to
strong NE winds to the west of the front across the Bahamas to the
Straits of Florida. Seas are 8-11 ft from 25N to 30N between 63W
and 76W. Seas are 4-8 ft elsewhere in the W Atlantic. Elsewhere
across the basin, aside from the SPECIAL FEATURE, trades are
gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas, except for locally fresh
winds over the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
dissipate through Sun, and high pressure north of the front will
shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak
front will stall off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas
north of 29N and west of 75W Tue as low pressure moves from the
northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong
southerly winds will shift eastward north of 28N ahead of a cold
front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night into Wed.
This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed.
Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough
moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands
Sun through Tue night.

$$
KRV

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652
AXNT20 KNHC 300937
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Recent scatterometer and
altimeter passes confirmed a large area of fresh to strong
easterly winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in a long plume across the
eastern and central Atlantic from roughly 20N to 28N between 15W
and 50W. These winds and seas are between strong high pressure
north of the area and a trough near 50W extending from 15N and
25N. The trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 20 to 25 kt
and pass mainly to the north of the Leeward Islands by mid week.
Winds will diminish slightly through the period, but given the
long fetch and duration of the winds, this pattern will support
seas building to 12 to 13 ft today and Mon over an area from 22N
to 28N between 45W and 55W. Winds and seas will diminish after
late Tue, but 8 to 10 ft will persist across tropical Atlantic
waters east of 60W through the latter part of the week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 11N15W and
continues to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 04N30W to
08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to
09N between 12W and 17W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Fresh SE winds are evident across various buoys and platforms over
the far northwest Gulf, ahead of approaching cold front moving
into the Texas coastal plains. Buoy observations also show seas to
7 ft off the Texas coast. Fresh to locally strong E winds also
linger over the far southeast Gulf and Straits of Florida, south
of strong high pressure over the Carolinas. A plume of 5 to 7 ft
seas extends from the Straits of Florida into the southeast Gulf.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
elsewhere across the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted near a surface trough over the southeast Gulf just north of
the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the winds and seas over the southeast Gulf will
diminish through this morning, as the high pressure north of the
area shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the
eastern U.S. This front will enter the northwest Gulf later this
morning, then stall Mon night into Tue, when a low pressure will
form off Texas and move northeastward across the southeast U.S.
into the northwest Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move
southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall over the
central Gulf through mid- week, as another low forms over South
Texas. Looking ahead, expect fresh southerly flow over the western
Gulf as the low pressure moves northeastward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active between Hispaniola
and Panama, south of 15N, ahead of a broad upper trough reaching
from the Windward Passage to southern Nicaragua. Recent
scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate to fresh NE to
E winds across the eastern Caribbean east of 80W. This is south of
strong high pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic.
Concurrent altimeter satellite passes indicated combined seas of
4 to 6 ft over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic
will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across
most of the basin through the early part of the week. Winds and
seas will diminish by mid week as the high shifts east. Looking
ahead, expect fresh NE winds again over the north-central
Caribbean and off Colombia by late Thu as high pressure builds
over the eastern U.S.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front from 31N60W to the northern Bahamas
is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough
seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the
frontal boundary and over the southern Bahamas ahead of a broad
upper trough along roughly 75W. Farther east, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from 15N to 22N
between 40W and 50W. This activity is associated with an upper
low centered near 20N45W, which is also supporting the surface
trough along 50W described in the Special Features section above.
Aside from the large area of strong winds and rough seas also
described in the Special Features section, mostly moderate to
fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the
basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
dissipate through today, and high pressure north of the front will
shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak
front will stall off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas
north of 29N and west of 75W late Mon and Tue as low pressure
moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead,
these strong southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into
Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from Bermuda to
South Florida by late Wed, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by late
Thu. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a
trough moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward
Islands Sun through Tue night.

$$
Christensen

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349
AXNT20 KNHC 301649
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Recent scatterometer and
altimeter passes confirmed a large area of fresh to strong
easterly winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in a long plume across the
eastern and central Atlantic from roughly 20N to 28N between 15W
and 50W. These winds and seas are between strong high pressure
north of the area and a trough near 51W extending from 15N and
25N. Scatterometer data also indicated locally near-gale force
winds near the trough. The trough will continue to move to the
W-NW at 20 to 25 kt and pass north of the Leeward Islands by mid
week. Winds will diminish slightly through the period, but given
the long fetch and duration of the winds, this pattern will
support seas building to 12 to 13 ft today and Mon over an area
from 22N to 28N between 45W and 55W. Winds and seas will diminish
after late Tue, but 8-10 ft seas will persist across tropical
Atlantic waters east of 60W through the latter part of the week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and
continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 03N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 07N between
10W and 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A new cold front has entered the NW Gulf. As of 1500 UTC, the
front extends from Vermilion Bay, LA to Padre Island, TX. Fresh to
strong NE winds are behind the front, with building seas of 5-7
ft. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. A surface
trough is analyzed in the east central Gulf, from 23N to 27N along
88W. Locally fresh E winds, and seas to 6 ft, are analyzed near
the trough. Scattered showers and tstorms are also near the
trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker E winds and 3-5 ft seas
prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to stall Mon night into
Tue, when a low pressure will form off Texas and move
northeastward across the southeast U.S. into the northwest
Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther
into the basin, but then stall again over the central Gulf through
mid-week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead,
expect fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf as the low
pressure moves northeastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 15N between 72W and
76W, ahead of a broad upper trough reaching from the Windward
Passage to southern Nicaragua. The latest satellite scatterometer
data indicates fresh to strong NE winds within the Windward
Passage. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, moderate or weaker trades
and 3-6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds across most of
the basin through the early part of the week. Winds and seas will
diminish by mid week as the high shifts east. Looking ahead,
expect fresh NE winds again over the north-central Caribbean and
off Colombia by late Thu as high pressure builds over the eastern
U.S.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front from 31N60W to 26N74W, just east of the
northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 31N
between 65W and 75W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are north of 25N
between 60W and 80W. The latest satellite scatterometer
data indicates fresh to strong NE winds on approach to and within
the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, outside of the area described in
SPECIAL FEATURES, moderate or weaker trades and 4-7 ft seas
prevail across the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
dissipate later today, and high pressure north of the front will
shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak
front will stall off the northeast Florida coast by Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas
north of 29N and west of 75W late Mon and Tue as low pressure
moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead,
these strong southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into
Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from Bermuda to
South Florida by late Wed, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by late
Thu. Meanwhile, as described in SPECIAL FEATURES, strong winds
and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the
waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun through Tue night.

$$
Mahoney

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882
AXNT20 KNHC 302222
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A large area of strong E winds
and seas of 9 to 12 ft extend across the central Atlantic from 19N
to 29N, E of 55W. These conditions are being generated by a
pressure gradient between Azores high pressure and a robust
surface trough that extends along 52W from 15N to 25N. The highest
seas are associated with near gale-force winds in a corridor near
the apex of the trough, from 22N to 26N between 45W and 55W. The
trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 20 kt and pass north
of the Leeward Islands by mid week. Winds will diminish slightly
through the period, but given the long fetch and duration of the
winds, this pattern will support seas building to 12 to 13 ft
through Mon over an area from 22N to 28N between 45W and 58W.
Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft seas will
persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through late
week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and
continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 03N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 07N between
10W and 31W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana, to the Rio
Grande. Strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas follow the front.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm ahead of
the front, to the W of 95W. A surface trough along 88W from 23N to
27N is causing scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of
26N87W, with some locally fresh E winds occurring to the north of
the trough over the north central Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh
E winds are also occurring in the Florida Straits and adjacent
waters offshore NW Cuba. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail.
Seas are 3 to 6 ft across the basin ahead of the aforementioned
cold front.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to stall over the
northern Gulf Mon night into Tue, when a low pressure will form
off Texas and move NE across the southeast U.S. into the northwest
Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther
into the basin, but then stall again over the central Gulf through
mid- week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead,
expect fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf as the low
pressure moves northeastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of either
side of the axis of the eastern extension of the East Pacific
monsoon trough which is noted along 10N to the W of the Colombian
coast. Otherwise, moderate trades prevail over most of the basin,
except for fresh NE to E winds funneling through the Windward
Passage. Moderate seas dominate most of the basin, with slight
seas in the NW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin
through the early part of the week. Winds and seas will diminish
by mid week as the high shifts east. Looking ahead, expect fresh
NE to E winds again over the north-central Caribbean and off
Colombia by late Thu as high pressure builds over the eastern U.S.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Significant Swell in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from just E of Bermuda to the northern
Bahamas. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection has
increased this afternoon in association with this boundary, and is
impacting waters N of the Turks and Caicos between 65W and 73W.
Winds on both sides of the front are mainly moderate to fresh,
with moderate seas impacting Atlantic waters E of 60W. For waters
to the east, much of the area is being impacted by the surface
trough generating the winds and subsequent significant swell, as
described in the Special Features Section above. Just south of the
region of significant winds and seas, scattered moderate
convection has initiated in broadly divergent upper-level wind
flow from 15N to 20N between 30W and 45W. For the remainder of the
waters, particularly the deep tropics E of the Lesser Antilles,
moderate seas and moderate to fresh trades prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
tonight, and high pressure north of the front will shift
eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front
will stall off the northeast Florida coast by Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and
building seas north of 28N and west of 74W late Mon and Tue as low
pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking
ahead, these southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into
Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from near Bermuda
to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late
Thu. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a
trough moving westward into the waters NE of the Leeward Islands
through Tue. Then, the trough will pass just N of Puerto Rico on
Wed.

$$
Konarik

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709
AXNT20 KNHC 010346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Dec 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A large area of strong E winds
and seas of 9 to 12 ft extend across the central Atlantic from 19N
to 29N, E of 55W. These conditions are being generated by a
pressure gradient between Azores high pressure and a robust
surface trough that extends along 55W from 07N to 25N. The
highest seas are associated with near gale-force winds in a
corridor near the apex of the trough, from 22N to 26N between 45W
and 55W. The trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 20 kt and
pass north of the Leeward Islands by mid week. Winds will
diminish slightly through the period, but given the long fetch and
duration of the winds, this pattern will support seas building to
12 to 13 ft through today over an area from 22N to 28N between
45W and 58W. Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft
seas will persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W
through late week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues to 09N18W. The ITCZ extends from 09N18W to 05N25W to
07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 07N
between 20W and 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana, to
just south of the mouth of the Rio Grande. Strong NE winds and 6
to 8 ft seas follow the front over the far northwest part of the
Gulf. A few showers are evident along the front. A surface trough
remains in place over the central Gulf along 88W from 23N to 27N.
Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere
across the Gulf.

For the forecast, winds and seas behind the front will diminish
today. The front is expected to remain stationary over the
northern Gulf into Tue, when a low pressure will form off Texas
and move NE across the SE U.S. into the NE Atlantic. Winds will
increase to strong speeds in the NE Gulf Mon night and diminish on
Tue. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into
the basin, but then stall again over the central Gulf through mid-
week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead,
expect fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf as the low
pressure moves northeastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the northern
Windward Passage, associated with an upper trough in the area. Low
level trade wind convergence along with modest upper level
divergence is also supporting a few thunderstorms off eastern
Panama. High pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic
is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
east of 80W. Gentle to moderate NE breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the Caribbean Sea
will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the
basin through the forecast period. Winds and seas will lessen a
bit on Tue as the high pressure departs eastward, but another
ridge will build in soon thereafter.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Significant Swell in the Central Atlantic.

A dissipating stationary front extending from 31N60W
to 25N73W is followed by fresh to locally strong NE winds and
moderate to locally rough seas. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass also confirmed fresh to strong E winds across the Turks and
Caicos Islands and near the northern entrance to the Windward
Passage. This may be in-part related to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in that region associated with an upper trough
extending along 70W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also
noted farther north ahead of the trough, covering the area from
24N to 30N between 60W and 70W. Farther east, as discussed in the
Special Features section, a surface trough extends along 55W from
07N to 25N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Aside from the winds and
seas described in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh
breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
overnight, and high pressure north of the front will shift
eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front
will stall off the northeast Florida coast by Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and
building seas north of 28N and west of 74W late Mon and Tue as low
pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking
ahead, these southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into
Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from near Bermuda
to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late
Thu. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a
trough moving westward into the waters NE of the Leeward Islands
through Tue. Then, the trough will pass just N of Puerto Rico on
Wed.

$$
Christensen

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440
AXNT20 KNHC 011029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Dec 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A large area of strong E winds
and seas of 9 to 13 ft extend across the central Atlantic from
18N to 30N, E of 60W. These conditions are being generated by the
pressure gradient between Azores high pressure and a robust
surface trough that extends along 57W from 11N to 25N. The
highest seas are associated with strong winds in a corridor near
the apex of the trough, from 20N to 26N between 45W and 57W. The
trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 15 kt and pass north
of the Leeward Islands by mid week. Winds will diminish slightly
through the period, but given the long fetch and duration of the
winds, this pattern will support seas building to 12 to 13 ft
through today over an area from 22N to 28N between 45W and 58W.
Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft seas will
persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through late
week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 06N35W to
06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 10N
and east of 47W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to
Tamaulipas. Strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas follow the front.
A few showers are evident along and behind the front. A surface
trough remains in place over the central Gulf along 88W from 22N
to 27N. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida
panhandle to Tamaulipas, followed by fresh to occasionally strong
N-NE winds and seas to 8 ft. These winds and seas will diminish
later today. Low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary
in the NW Gulf today into tonight before the system lifts quickly northeastward, resulting in fresh to strong N winds and locally
rough seas behind the boundary. Winds and seas will diminish late
Tue. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into
the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf through mid-
week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead,
another cold front will enter the western waters late Thu,
reaching from SE Louisiana to Tamaulipas Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low level trade wind convergence along with modest upper level
divergence is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms off
Panama and Nicaragua. High pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 4
to 6 ft seas east of 80W. Gentle to moderate NE breezes and 2 to
4 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the Caribbean Sea
will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the
basin through the forecast period. Winds and seas will lessen a
bit on Tue into Wed as the high pressure departs eastward, but
another ridge will build in soon thereafter. A broad surface trough
is approaching the eastern Caribbean and will continue westward over
the next few days. Rough seas affecting the water passages of the NE
Caribbean will persist through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Significant Swell in the Central Atlantic.

A cold front is approaching the waters off NE Florida and a few
showers and thunderstorms are evident ahead of the boundaru.
Farther east, a surface trough is analyzed along 68W, north of
25N. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted east of the
trough to 62W and north of 26N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring west of 74W and north of
26N and also south of 24N and east of 74W.

As discussed in the Special Features section, a surface trough
extends along 57W from 11N to 25N, moving west at 15. Aside from
the winds and seas described in the Special Features section,
moderate to fresh breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front entering the waters off
NE Florida is expected to stall today, before lifting northward
tonight. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas
north of 28N and west of 74W tonight and Tue as low pressure moves
from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these
southerly winds will shift SW Tue night into Wed, north of 28N
ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue
night. This front will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida on
Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile,
strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving
westward into the waters NE of the Leeward Islands through Tue.
Then, the trough will pass just N of Puerto Rico on Wed.

$$
Delgado

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631
AXNT20 KNHC 011756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Dec 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Seas: A large area of strong E winds
extends across the central Atlantic from 18N to 30N, between 20W
and 60W. These conditions are being generated by the pressure
gradient between a 1034 mb Azores, lower pressure along the
Atlantic ITCZ, and a robust surface trough that extends along 60W
from 18N to 25N. Rough seas in easterly waves are combining with
fading NW swell across this zone to produce seas of 8 to 13 ft.
The highest seas are occurring within the zone of strongest winds
in a corridor near the apex of the trough, from 20N to 26N between
48W and 58W. The trough will continue to move W and pass north of
the Leeward Islands tonight through Tue. Winds will diminish
slightly through the period, but given the long fetch and duration
of the winds, this pattern will support seas of 12 to 13 ft
through this evening over an area from 22N to 28N between 50W and
58W. Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft seas will
persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through late
week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W and
continues to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N19.5W to 04.5N35W
to 04.5N45W to 07N50W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N and east of 48W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 27.5N97W
to just offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico and then westward and
inland. Strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are north of the
front and into the Texas coastal waters, while fresh to strong NW
to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail west of the front across
the Mexican waters. Scattered showers are evident along and
behind the front. A low level cyclonic clouds swirl is seen on
satellite imagery and analyzed as a 1015 mb surface low near
25.5N89.5W. An old frontal boundary extends from the Florida
Straits northwestward to just northeast of this surface low, where
scattered moderate to strong showers are occurring along the
boundary. Fresh easterly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail
between the trough and the front. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3
to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, low pressure is expected to develop along the
stationary front in the NW Gulf today into tonight, and slide quickly northeastward, resulting in fresh to strong N winds and locally
rough seas north of the front and low. Winds and seas will diminish
late Tue across the NE Gulf after the low shifts inland.
Thereafter, the front will move southeastward and farther into
the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf through mid-
week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead,
another cold front will enter the western waters late Thu,
reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1036 mb Azores high dominates the Atlantic Basin, and extends
weakly southwestward to north of the Caribbean. This pattern is
producing moderate to fresh trade winds across all but the NW
portions of the Caribbean, except for strong winds off of
Colombia. Low level trade wind convergence along with modest
upper level divergence is supporting scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms off Panama and Nicaragua. Seas are 4 to 6 ft east
of 80W. Gentle to moderate NE breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, High pressure centered northeast of the
Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most
of the basin through the forecast period. Winds and seas will
lessen a bit on Tue into Wed as the high pressure departs
eastward, before another ridge build across the western Atlantic soon thereafter. A broad surface trough is approaching the eastern
Caribbean and will continue westward over the next few days.
Moderate to rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE
Caribbean passages through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Significant Seas in the Central Atlantic.

A cold front is stalling across the waters off NE Florida, from
30N80W to just north of Cape Canaveral, where a few showers and
thunderstorms are evident along of the boundary. Farther east, a
surface trough is analyzed along 67W, north of 25N. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted east of the trough to 62W
and north of 26N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are occurring west of 74W and north of 26N and also
south of 24N and east of 74W.

As discussed in the Special Features section, a surface trough
extends along 60W from 11N to 25N, moving west at 15. Aside from
the winds and seas described in the Special Features section,
moderate to fresh breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the
tropical Atlantic waters of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stalled cold front off NE
Florida is expected to stall today, before lifting northward
tonight. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas
north of 28N and west of 74W tonight and Tue as low pressure moves
from the northern Gulf of America northeastward to the Carolinas.
These southerly winds will shift SW Tue night into Wed, north of
28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast
Tue night. This front will reach from near Bermuda to South
Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu.
Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will prevail northeast
through east of a trough currently along 60W that will move
westward into the waters N of the Leeward Islands tonight through
Tue. The trough will then pass just N of Puerto Rico on Wed.

$$
Stripling

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199
AXNT20 KNHC 012223
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Dec 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Seas: A large area of fresh to
strong E winds extends across the central Atlantic from 17N to
30N, E of 60W. These conditions are being generated by the
pressure gradient between a 1035 mb Azores high, lower pressure
along the Atlantic ITCZ, and a robust surface trough that extends
along 60W from 18N to 25N. Easterly wind-waves are combining with
fading NW swell across this zone to produce seas of 8 to 13 ft.
The highest seas are occurring within the zone of strongest winds
in a corridor near the apex of the trough, from 20N to 26N between
48W and 58W. The trough will continue to move W and pass north of
the Leeward Islands through Tue. As it does, winds where the
highest swell exists will diminish and seas will fall below 12 ft
Tue. Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft seas will
persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through late
week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W and
continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 05N40W to
07N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 04N to 10N and east of 48W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay to 27N90W to a
developing low pressure just offshore Corpus Christi Bay. A cold
front then continues southward from the low to just south of Cabo
Rojo, Mexico. Fresh winds, moderate seas, and scattered moderate
convection is noted north of the frontal boundary, with locally
strong E winds offshore Florida. A well-defined but weak low
pressure near 26N90W is no long producing any convection, and only
has moderate or weaker cyclonic winds associated with it. In the
eastern basin, a surface trough extends SE from near 26N88W to the
Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and
within 60 nm NE of this boundary. Winds across the remainder of
the basin are mainly light to gentle, with slight seas.

For the forecast, the developing low pressure offshore Texas will
move quickly northeastward tonight, resulting in fresh to strong
N winds and locally rough seas behind the associated frontal
boundary. Winds and seas will diminish late Tue. Thereafter, the
front will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then
stall over the south-central Gulf by Wed, as another low forms
over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold
front will enter the NW waters late Thu, reaching from SE
Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic ridging partially extends toward the Caribbean, creating
a pressure gradient inducing moderate to fresh trades across most
of the basin. In the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate E wind
dominates. Convection is confined to along and S of 10N where the
extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered thunderstorms off Panama. Seas are generally moderate,
with slight seas in the NW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the Caribbean
Sea will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the
basin through the forecast period. Winds and seas will lessen a
bit on Tue into Wed as the high pressure departs eastward, but
another ridge will build in soon thereafter. A broad surface
trough is approaching the eastern Caribbean and will continue
westward over the next few days. Moderate to locally rough seas,
in NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages through
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Significant Seas in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 30N79W to near Melbourne, Florida.
Scattered moderate convection, fresh NE winds, and moderate seas
are behind this boundary offshore NE Florida. Weak low pressure
has formed along a pre-frontal trough near 30N77W. Another trough
extends from S of Bermuda to just NE of the Turks and Caicos.
Scattered moderate convection associated with yet another trough,
that is described in detail in the Special Features section, from
22N to 26N between 53W and 63W. Moderate to fresh E winds and
moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front off Florida
will lift north as a warm front tonight. Expect fresh to strong
southerly winds and building seas across the area north of 28N and
west of 74W into Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf
of America to the Carolinas. The associated cold front will reach
the waters off the northeast Florida coast late on Tue, extending
from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to
central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly
winds and rough seas follow a surface trough currently located
near 61W. The trough will continue to move westward, passing just
N of Puerto Rico on Tue, and N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds
and seas in the wake of the trough will gradually diminish over
the next couple of days.

$$
Konarik

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503
AXNT20 KNHC 020300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Dec 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W and
continues to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 07N48W to
06N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 04N to 08N between 10W and 25W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to 1011 mb low
pressure over the north-central Gulf near 28N90W to 28N94W to near
Tuxpan, Mexico. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted from
28N to 29N between 85W and 90W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds
and 5 to 6 ft seas are ongoing over the far northeast Gulf north
of the front. Fresh N to NE winds and seas to 6 ft are also noted
over the far northwest Gulf off the coast of Texas. Gentle to
moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the low pressure over the north-central Gulf
will move quickly northeastward tonight, resulting in fresh to
strong N winds and locally rough seas behind the associated
frontal boundary. Winds and seas will diminish late Tue.
Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the
basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf by Wed, as
another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead,
another cold front will enter the NW waters late Thu, reaching
from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is moving slowly westward into the western
Atlantic and through the Leeward Islands. This is disrupting the
influence of the subtropical ridge north of the area, and is
resulting in light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas over the
far eastern Caribbean. The ridge is still influencing the central
Caribbean where moderate to fresh NE trade winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are evident. Fresh to locally strong NE winds may be
impacting the Windward Passage. Light to gentle NE to E breezes
and 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern Panama, but fair
conditions prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the trough will move to the north of Mona
Passage through late Wed, then stall and dissipate. The ridge will
then re-establish north of the area into Thu, supporting moderate
to fresh trade wind flow across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Fri with seas building slightly. Gentle breezes and slight
seas will persist over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fresh SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted off northeast Florida
and north of the northern Bahamas west of 77W, associated with a
stationary front that extends from 30N78W to near Fort Pierce,
Florida. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed a surface
trough along roughly 61W, north of the Leeward Islands to 27N.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active on the northern end
of the surface trough, from 22N to 30N between 55W and 63W. Weak
ridging between the trough and the front is supporting moderate to
fresh NE winds and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere east of 60W, except for
fresh NE winds near the entrance to the Windward Passage.
Elsewhere over the central and eastern Caribbean, fresh to strong
E to SE winds are noted east of the trough. Seas are 9 to 11 ft in
fresh swell from 20N to 27N between 45W and 60W, and 6 to 9 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong southerly
winds and building seas across the area north of 28N and west of
74W tonight and Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf
of America to the Carolinas. The associated cold front will reach
the waters off the northeast Florida coast late on Tue, extending
from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to
central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly
winds and rough seas follow the surface trough currently located
near 61W. The trough will continue to move westward, passing just
N of Puerto Rico on Tue, and N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds
and seas in the wake of the trough will gradually diminish over
the next couple of days.

$$
Christensen

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808
AXNT20 KNHC 021007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Dec 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0955 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 05N53W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
03N to 13N and east of 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf waters, while a stationary
front remains straddled across the NE and northern waters
associated with a 1011 mb low pres near 29N88W. Scattered showers
are found in off the Florida panhandle and SW Florida. Moderate to
locally strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are
occurring north of the frontal boundaries. In the remainder of the
basin, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure will exit the basin northeastward
toward the Carolinas this morning. Locally strong winds and moderate
to locally rough seas will persist behind the boundaries before
diminishing late today. The cold front will move southeastward
farther into the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf
by late Wed, as another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf.
Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the NW waters late
Thu, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is moving slowly westward into the western
Atlantic and through the Leeward Islands. This is disrupting the
influence of the subtropical ridge north of the area, and is
resulting in light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas over the
far eastern Caribbean. The ridge is still influencing the central
Caribbean where moderate to fresh NE trade winds and moderate
seas are evident. Light to gentle NE to E breezes and 2 to 3 ft
seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active off eastern Panama, but fair conditions
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will diminish across the basin today and
Wed as the aforementioned trough progresses westward, disrupting
the influence of the subtropical ridge. However, winds will
freshen up again late this week as the high pressure builds in
north of the area. Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in
NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages through
the week and into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1013 mb low pres near 31N78W to
Palm Beach, Florida. Fresh to locally strong SE-S winds and
moderate to rough seas north of 28N and west of 75W. Farther east,
a surface trough along 63W and divergence aloft support numerous
showers north of 21N and between 53W and 66W. The pressure
gradient between the 1034 mb high pressure near the Azores and
lower pressures in the deep tropics and the aforementioned trough
result in fresh to locally strong easterly winds over much of the
basin east of 65W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front in the Gulf of
America will reach the waters off the northeast Florida coast
late today, extending from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed,
and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to
strong easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough
currently located near 63W. The trough will continue to move
westward, passing just N of Puerto Rico today, and N of Hispaniola
Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the wake of the trough will
gradually diminish over the next couple of days.

$$
Delgado

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967
AXNT20 KNHC 021650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Dec 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N15W along
the coast of Guinea and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N20W to 07N57W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 03N-13N and east of 25W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb
low over the Florida panhandle at 31N84W to just north of Veracruz
near 20N97W. A prefrontal trough extends from 26N89W to 30N83W.
Scattered showers are present within 30 NM of the front and
prefrontal trough. Winds behind the front are N fresh to strong
with the remainder of the Gulf having moderate or weaker winds.
Seas behind the front are 5-7 ft, while the remainder of the Gulf
has 2-5 ft waves.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds and moderate to
locally rough seas are forecast to move southeastward farther
into the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf by late
Wed, as another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf.
Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu,
reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning,
then stall and lift north toward the northern Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The trades have diminished across the basin today as a surface
trough progresses westward just north of the islands, disrupting
the influence of the subtropical ridge. Winds are moderate or
weaker with seas 2-5 ft across the Caribbean. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring south of 12N west of 78W due to the
eastern extent of the Northeast Pacific's monsoon trough.

For the forecast, diminished winds across the basin will continue
on Wed as a surface trough progresses westward just N of the
islands, disrupting the influence of the subtropical ridge.
However, winds will freshen up again late this week as the high
pressure builds in north of the area. Meanwhile, moderate to
locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE
Caribbean passages through the week and into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 19N65W to 26N62W with scattered
moderate convection occurring from 21N-27N between 55W-62W. Winds
east of the trough axis are SE fresh to strong with seas 8-10 ft.
Extending farther east into the Atlantic, a moderate to strong
pressure gradient between a 1034 mb Azores High near 27N30W and
lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong trades
from 10N-29N east of 55W. Seas are 8-10 ft. A complex area of low
pressure over the SE United States is help to force fresh to
strong SSW winds north of 28N west of 77W with seas 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere across the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic,
winds are moderate and seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong southerly
winds and building seas across the area north of 28N and west of
74W today as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf of America
to the Carolinas. The associated cold front will reach the waters
off the northeast Florida coast late today, extending from near
Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba
by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough
seas follow a surface trough currently located near 64W. The
trough will continue to move westward, passing just N of Puerto
Rico today, and N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the
wake of the trough will gradually diminish over the next couple
of days.

$$
Landsea

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214
AXNT20 KNHC 021651
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Dec 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N15W along
the coast of Guinea and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N20W to 07N57W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 03N-13N and east of 25W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb
low over the Florida panhandle at 31N84W to just north of Veracruz
near 20N97W. A prefrontal trough extends from 26N89W to 30N83W.
Scattered showers are present within 30 NM of the front and
prefrontal trough. Winds behind the front are N fresh to strong
with the remainder of the Gulf having moderate or weaker winds.
Seas behind the front are 5-7 ft, while the remainder of the Gulf
has 2-5 ft waves.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds and moderate to
locally rough seas are forecast to move southeastward farther
into the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf by late
Wed, as another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf.
Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu,
reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning,
then stall and lift north toward the northern Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The trades have diminished across the basin today as a surface
trough progresses westward just north of the islands, disrupting
the influence of the subtropical ridge. Winds are moderate or
weaker with seas 2-5 ft across the Caribbean. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring south of 12N west of 78W due to the
eastern extent of the Northeast Pacific's monsoon trough.

For the forecast, diminished winds across the basin will continue
on Wed as a surface trough progresses westward just N of the
islands, disrupting the influence of the subtropical ridge.
However, winds will freshen up again late this week as the high
pressure builds in north of the area. Meanwhile, moderate to
locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE
Caribbean passages through the week and into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 19N65W to 26N62W with scattered
moderate convection occurring from 21N-27N between 55W-62W. Winds
east of the trough axis are SE fresh to strong with seas 8-10 ft.
Extending farther east into the Atlantic, a moderate to strong
pressure gradient between a 1034 mb Azores High near 27N30W and
lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong trades
from 10N-29N east of 55W. Seas are 8-10 ft. A complex area of low
pressure over the SE United States is help to force fresh to
strong SSW winds north of 28N west of 77W with seas 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere across the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic,
winds are moderate and seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong southerly
winds and building seas across the area north of 28N and west of
74W today as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf of America
to the Carolinas. The associated cold front will reach the waters
off the northeast Florida coast late today, extending from near
Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba
by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough
seas follow a surface trough currently located near 64W. The
trough will continue to move westward, passing just N of Puerto
Rico today, and N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the
wake of the trough will gradually diminish over the next couple
of days.

$$
Landsea

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836
AXNT20 KNHC 022212
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Dec 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N15W and
continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 08N55W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
03N-13N and east of 25W. Scattered moderate convection has also
developed from 08N to 11N between 25W and 40W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz,
Mexico. A pre-frontal trough extends from SW Florida to just W of
the Florida Keys. Neither feature is producing convection at this
time. Fresh N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are N of the front,
except locally strong winds and rough seas have developed just
offshore N of Veracruz, Mexico. Ahead of the front, gentle winds
and slight seas dominate.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southward, reaching
the south-central Gulf by Wed morning, and marine conditions N of
the front will improve tonight. The front will stall and lift
northward by late Wed, as another low pressure system forms over
South Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front
will enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to
near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall and lift north toward
the northern Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge to the north has been disrupted by a trough
N of N of Puerto Rico, creating a weak pressure gradient over the
basin and leading to mainly gentle winds and slight seas over the
basin. Convection is confined to offshore Panama to the S of 11N,
where the eastern portion of the NE Pacific monsoon trough
resides.

For the forecast, winds will continue to diminish across the
basin tonight and Wed as the surface trough progresses westward
just N of the basin, disrupting the influence of the subtropical
ridge. However, winds will freshen up again late this week as the
high pressure builds in north of the area. Another surface trough,
located near 60W, will move across the Windward Islands into the
eastern Caribbean tonight into Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds
and locally rough seas follow this trough. The associated moisture
will also bring some shower activity. Meanwhile, moderate to
locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE
Caribbean passages through the week and into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough just E of the Lesser Antilles is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 10N to 15N between 57W and 60W.
A deep layer trough, with a surface reflection along 60W N of 25N,
is inducing a broad area of scattered moderate convection from 20N
to 30N between 52W and 60W. Yet another surface trough that
extends from 19N66W to 25N64W is no longer producing any
convection. To the W of these features, W of 60W, light to gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas dominate until N of the Bahamas
and W of 70W, where SW winds have increased to fresh to strong
ahead of a cold front that is approaching the east coast of the
United States. Seas have increased to 6 to 9 ft in these region.

For waters to the E of 60W, widespread fresh W winds dominate the
basin, with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Areas of strong winds are present
in the far eastern Atlantic in the vicinity of the Canary Islands
and the Cabo Verde Islands as well has waters between those island
chains and Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong southerly
winds and building seas across the area north of 29N and west of
72W ahead of a cold front that will reach the waters off the
northeast Florida coast early this evening. The front will extend
from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed morning, and from 31N70W
to the Straits of Florida by Thu morning. Meanwhile, fresh to
strong easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough
currently located just N of Puerto Rico. The trough will continue
to move westward passing N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and
seas in the wake of the trough are gradually diminishing.

$$
Konarik

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772
AXNT20 KNHC 030255
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Dec 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0250 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 08N20W to 06N25W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 03N35W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 06N between 10W and 15W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Clearwater, Florida to 23N92W where it
becomes stationary and extends to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to
strong N winds and seas to at least 7 ft are noted behind the
front off the coast of Veracruz. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of the front. Gentle
W to NW breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident south of the front.
No significant showers or thunderstorms are active across the Gulf
at this time.

For the forecast, marine conditions will diminish by tonight. The
cold front will move southeastward, reaching the south-central
Gulf by Wed morning. Then, the front will stall and lift northward
by late Wed, as another low pressure system forms over South
Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front will
enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to near
Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall and lift north toward the
northern Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge to the north has been disrupted by a trough
N of N of Puerto Rico, creating a weak pressure gradient over the
basin and leading to mainly gentle winds and slight seas over the
basin. A few showers and thunderstorms remain active off the coast
of Panama, where the eastern portion of the NE Pacific monsoon
trough resides.

For the forecast, winds will freshen up starting Thu as the high
pressure builds in north of the area. These conditions will
prevail into early next week, especially in the central and
eastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in
NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages through
the week and into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front reaches from a deep low pressure system off Long
Island to near St Augustine, Florida. A pre-frontal trough reaches
from 31N77W to Ft Lauderdale, Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds
and moderate to rough seas are noted within 180 nm east of the
front, with fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft following the front.
Another surface trough extends along 67W south of 28N to Puerto
Rico. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted east of the trough
near 25N62W. A ridge axis is noted between the front and this
trough, from Bermuda to central Cuba. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds and 6 to 9 ft seas cover the remainder of the North Atlantic
south of 31N and east of the trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to strong winds off
northeast Florida will shift east and lift north of the area by
Wed afternoon. The front will extend from near Bermuda to South
Florida on Wed morning, and from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida
by Thu morning. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly winds and
rough seas follow a surface trough currently located just N of
Puerto Rico. The trough will continue to move westward passing N
of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the wake of the
trough are gradually diminishing.

$$
Christensen

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865
AXNT20 KNHC 031017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Dec 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 06N11W to
03N27W. The ITCZ stretches from 03N27W to 05N43W to 04N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N and east
of 33W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Venice, Florida to 25N87W, where it
becomes stationary and extends to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate
to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are found behind the
front, while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail ahead
of the front. No significant showers or thunderstorms are active
across the Gulf at this time.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slow down
this morning, while the stationary front lifts northward as
another low pressure system forms over South Texas and the NW
Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop this
afternoon in W Gulf and spread eastward tonight into Thu. Then,
another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend
from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall
and gradually dissipate. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is
likely to sweep across the Gulf late Sun into Mon, bringing strong
N winds over much of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft supports a few showers over the Lesser Antilles
and nearby waters. Strong showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring in the SW Caribbean off Panama and Costa Rica. A weak
pressure gradient across the basin supports moderate to locally
fresh NE winds and moderate seas in the south-central and SW
Caribeban, while light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of
the basin starting Thu and continuing into early next week.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will
persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into
the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the NW
Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N78W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh
to strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas are noted within
180 nm east of the front, with fresh NW winds and 5 to 9 ft
following the front. Another surface trough extends along 68W
south of 28N to Puerto Rico. A few showers and thunderstorms are
noted east of the trough near 23N60W. A ridge axis is noted
between the front and this trough, from Bermuda to central Cuba.
Fresh to strong E to SE winds and 7 to 11 ft seas cover the
remainder of the North Atlantic south of 31N and east of the
trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will extend from near
Bermuda to South Florida later this morning, and from 31N70W to
the Straits of Florida by Thu morning. Meanwhile, fresh to strong
easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough currently
located just N of Puerto Rico. The trough will continue to move
westward passing N of Hispaniola today and Thu. Winds and seas in
the wake of the trough are gradually diminishing. Looking ahead, a
cold front will reach the waters off NE Florida Fri resulting in
fresh to locally strong winds N of 29N and west of 75W by Fri
afternoon. These winds and locally rough seas will then shift
eastward into the weekend.

$$
Delgado

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318=20
AXNT20 KNHC 031751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Dec 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high
centered near 35N27W and lower pressures over the Mediterranean
Sea will support NE winds gusting to gale force offshore the=20
Moroccan coast near Agadir. Accordingly, Meteo-France has issued a
Gale Warning for the Agadir zone from 03/15 UTC to 04/00 UTC. For
more information, please visit Meteo-France's website at: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/displ= ay/2__;!!DZ3fjg!7IxGyw6v5Coy4BUWq80HMdxGMes2MB7DJ5fM8VWzai_284_kr4RVxx4xaKn= 7BPySlFZ0fuz08vSCy9KDV4rM49Ux3vM$ .

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Liberia and
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N22W. The ITCZ stretches from=20
04N22W to 02.5N35W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 10N between the W coast of Africa and 33W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from near Ft. Myers, Florida to 24N87W,=20
where it becomes stationary and extends to near Veracruz, Mexico.=20
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 2-5 ft are found behind the=20
front, while light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail ahead=20
of the front. A surface trough is analyzed in the NW Gulf,=20
paralleling the TX coast and extending southward to near 23.5N96W.
Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the trough=20
axis.

For the forecast, the cold front will slow down today, while the=20
stationary front lifts northward as another low pressure system=20
forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh=20
southerly winds will develop this afternoon in W Gulf and spread=20
eastward tonight into Thu. Then, another cold front will enter the
NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to near Tampico,=20
Mexico Fri morning, then stall and gradually dissipate. Looking=20
ahead, a strong cold front is likely to sweep across the Gulf late
Sun into Mon, bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds over much of
the basin.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over and just W of the Lesser
Antilles, and is generating a large area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the far eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong E
winds are observed in the strongest convection, per a pair of
recent Metop-B and Metop-C scatterometer passes. Outside of
convection, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas persist=20
offshore NW Colombia, driven by the pressure gradient between
higher pressures north of the region and lower pressures over=20
South America. The remainder of the basin is seeing moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean=20
Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the
basin starting Thu and continuing into early next week.=20
Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will=20
persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into
the weekend. A surface trough, located near 62W, will continue to
move westward across the eastern Caribbean through tonight before
dissipating. Fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas follow=20
this trough. The associated moisture is producing some shower=20
activity and isolated thunderstorms across much of the Lesser=20
Antilles. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the NW=20
Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N71W to near Vero Beach, Florida.=20
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and 6-8 ft seas are about 150=20
nm east of the front, with moderate or weaker NW winds and=20
moderate seas behind the front. No significant convection is=20
occurring with the frontal passage. Farther east, a surface trough
is analyzed from 25N61W to 20N60W, and is leading to scattered=20
showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring near the trough axis.
In the east Atlantic, an upper level trough off the W coast of=20
Africa is supporting a large area of scattered showers and=20
isolated thunderstorms from 10N to 20N and E of 30W.=20

Much of the remaining Atlantic is dominated by ridging stemming
from a 1031 mb high near 35N27W. The pressure gradient between
this high and lower pressures in the tropics result in fresh to
strong E to NE winds and seas of 7-11 ft occurring across much of
the Atlantic between 10N and 30N and E of 60W. The two exceptions
are near the Cabo Verde Islands and a region N of 24N between 40W
and 55W where moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail.=20
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere
across the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N71W to
near Vero Beach, Florida. The front will extend from near Bermuda
to South Florida later this morning, and from 31N68W to central=20
Cuba by Thu morning, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Fri=20
morning while dissipating. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach=20
the waters off NE Florida Fri resulting in fresh to locally strong
winds N of 29N and west of 75W by Fri afternoon. These winds and=20
locally rough seas will then shift eastward into the weekend.=20

$$=20
Adams

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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319=20
AXNT20 KNHC 031751
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Dec 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high
centered near 35N27W and lower pressures over the Mediterranean
Sea will support NE winds gusting to gale force offshore the=20
Moroccan coast near Agadir. Accordingly, Meteo-France has issued a
Gale Warning for the Agadir zone from 03/15 UTC to 04/00 UTC. For
more information, please visit Meteo-France's website at: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/displ= ay/2__;!!DZ3fjg!-ANGQzc5bMVkl63ZOzvceQr8RPxhS19yOm2mEAitAB0yYHq_BEs98P2E7-3= Ej7aFqnGanLS9a9OoGjf0_xtwYIzRrgg$ .

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Liberia and
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N22W. The ITCZ stretches from=20
04N22W to 02.5N35W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 10N between the W coast of Africa and 33W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from near Ft. Myers, Florida to 24N87W,=20
where it becomes stationary and extends to near Veracruz, Mexico.=20
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 2-5 ft are found behind the=20
front, while light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail ahead=20
of the front. A surface trough is analyzed in the NW Gulf,=20
paralleling the TX coast and extending southward to near 23.5N96W.
Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the trough=20
axis.

For the forecast, the cold front will slow down today, while the=20
stationary front lifts northward as another low pressure system=20
forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh=20
southerly winds will develop this afternoon in W Gulf and spread=20
eastward tonight into Thu. Then, another cold front will enter the
NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to near Tampico,=20
Mexico Fri morning, then stall and gradually dissipate. Looking=20
ahead, a strong cold front is likely to sweep across the Gulf late
Sun into Mon, bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds over much of
the basin.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over and just W of the Lesser
Antilles, and is generating a large area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the far eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong E
winds are observed in the strongest convection, per a pair of
recent Metop-B and Metop-C scatterometer passes. Outside of
convection, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas persist=20
offshore NW Colombia, driven by the pressure gradient between
higher pressures north of the region and lower pressures over=20
South America. The remainder of the basin is seeing moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean=20
Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the
basin starting Thu and continuing into early next week.=20
Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will=20
persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into
the weekend. A surface trough, located near 62W, will continue to
move westward across the eastern Caribbean through tonight before
dissipating. Fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas follow=20
this trough. The associated moisture is producing some shower=20
activity and isolated thunderstorms across much of the Lesser=20
Antilles. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the NW=20
Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N71W to near Vero Beach, Florida.=20
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and 6-8 ft seas are about 150=20
nm east of the front, with moderate or weaker NW winds and=20
moderate seas behind the front. No significant convection is=20
occurring with the frontal passage. Farther east, a surface trough
is analyzed from 25N61W to 20N60W, and is leading to scattered=20
showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring near the trough axis.
In the east Atlantic, an upper level trough off the W coast of=20
Africa is supporting a large area of scattered showers and=20
isolated thunderstorms from 10N to 20N and E of 30W.=20

Much of the remaining Atlantic is dominated by ridging stemming
from a 1031 mb high near 35N27W. The pressure gradient between
this high and lower pressures in the tropics result in fresh to
strong E to NE winds and seas of 7-11 ft occurring across much of
the Atlantic between 10N and 30N and E of 60W. The two exceptions
are near the Cabo Verde Islands and a region N of 24N between 40W
and 55W where moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail.=20
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere
across the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N71W to
near Vero Beach, Florida. The front will extend from near Bermuda
to South Florida later this morning, and from 31N68W to central=20
Cuba by Thu morning, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Fri=20
morning while dissipating. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach=20
the waters off NE Florida Fri resulting in fresh to locally strong
winds N of 29N and west of 75W by Fri afternoon. These winds and=20
locally rough seas will then shift eastward into the weekend.=20

$$=20
Adams

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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112=20
AXNT20 KNHC 032204
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Dec 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high
centered near 35N27W and lower pressures over the Mediterranean
Sea will support NE winds gusting to gale force offshore the=20
Moroccan coast near Agadir. Accordingly, Meteo-France has issued a
Gale Warning for the Agadir zone from 03/15 UTC to 04/00 UTC. For
more information, please visit Meteo-France's website at: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/displ= ay/2__;!!DZ3fjg!9APzAyoFBzqPMvdQHZY5fhWLrksZHkStPhwpmw8Vw9fm-KgfsaSGvLtoYvt= DOfQZd-wfTHt2c6i5Bbw_qlSXGYeqPzw$ .

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Liberia and
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N21W. The ITCZ stretches from=20
04N21W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from=20
02N to 10N between the W coast of Africa and 33W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Everglades to 24N88W
to 1013 low pressure just offshore Tampico, Mexico. A surface
trough extends from this low southward to just offshore Veracruz,
Mexico, and another extends northward along the Texas coast. N of
the front and W of 90W, fresh SE winds are ongoing, with seas of=20
3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail with seas of=20
less than 3 ft.=20

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northward=20
tonight as the low over the NW Gulf strengthens. Moderate to=20
locally fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf will spread=20
eastward tonight into Thu. Then, another cold front will enter the
NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to near Tampico,=20
Mexico Fri morning, then stall and also lift north toward the=20
northern Gulf on Sat. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is=20
likely to sweep across the Gulf region late Sun into Mon, bringing
fresh to strong NW to N winds over much of the basin. This front=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A robust surface trough along 64W is inducing numerous moderate
convection along and E of it back into the Atlantic. In addition,
fresh to strong E winds are present in the SE Caribbean to the E
of the trough. Fresh trades are ongoing offshore Colombia and in
the Windward Passage, otherwise NE to E winds are moderate or
weaker across the basin. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the SE Caribbean
and offshore Colombia, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.=20=20

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean=20
Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the
basin starting Thu and continuing into early next week.=20
Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will=20
persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into
the weekend. A surface trough, currently located near 64W, will=20
continue to move westward across the eastern Caribbean through=20
tonight before dissipating. Fresh to strong winds and locally=20
rough seas are noted in the wake of this trough. The associated=20
moisture is producing some shower activity and isolated=20
thunderstorms across much of the Lesser Antilles. Looking ahead, a
cold front may approach the NW Caribbean early next week.=20

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning in the far eastern Atlantic, offshore Morocco.=20

A cold front extends from Bermuda to near Miami, Florida. A pre-
frontal trough is noted from 28N70W to the Florida Straits.
Another trough is farther east, with an axis from 30N63W to just N
of Hispaniola. No significant convection is occurring with any of
these features, and winds and seas for waters W of moderate or=20
weaker.

Much of the remaining Atlantic is dominated by ridging stemming
from a 1031 mb high near 35N27W. The pressure gradient between
this high and lower pressures in the tropics result in fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 7-11 ft occurring across
much of the Atlantic between 10N and 30N and E of 60W. The two=20
exceptions are near the Cabo Verde Islands and a region N of 24N=20
between 40W and 55W where moderate to fresh winds and moderate=20
seas prevail.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will extend from E of
Bermuda to central Cuba by Thu morning, and from 31N55W to=20
eastern Cuba by Fri morning while dissipating. High pressure will=20
follow the front. Then, a ridge will dominate most of the forecast
area through the end of the week. The next cold front is expected
to clip the waters offshore of NE Florida during the upcoming=20
weekend, with a stronger cold front reaching the same area on Mon.

$$
Konarik

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171
AXNT20 KNHC 040325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Dec 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0320 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N20W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N
to 08N between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1011 mb low pressure is developing off the central coast of Texas.
A warm front extends from the low to 26N85W then is stationary to
Florida Bay. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north
of the front over the northwest Gulf west of 90W. Moderate to
fresh SW to S winds are noted over the northwest Gulf near the low
pressure, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds over
the western Gulf will spread eastward tonight into Thu. Then,
another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend
from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall
and also lift north toward the northern Gulf on Sat. Looking
ahead, a stronger cold front is likely to sweep across the Gulf
region late Sun into Mon, bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds
over much of the basin. This front is forecast to move SE of the
area late on Mon or Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are noted near a surface over the
Leeward Islands. Generally fair conditions persist elsewhere.
Fresh NE winds persist across the Windward Passage, south of Cuba,
and off the central coast of Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft except
for 1 to 3 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea will support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the
basin through early next week. Locally strong NE winds may pulse
at night off NW Colombia tonight and Thu night. Meanwhile, locally
rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean
passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may
approach the NW Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front extends from Bermuda to near Miami,
Florida. A pre- frontal trough is noted from 31N64W to the central
Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of
the front, north of 25N between 57W and 63W. A surface trough is
south of 22N along 62W southward to the Leeward Islands. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by 1031 mb high pressure
centered south of the Azores near 35N26W. The axis of a surface
ridge extends from this high pressure toward 25N60W. Gentle
breezes and 4 to 6 ft in easterly swell west of 60W, except for
fresh winds near the northern end of the Windward Passage. Fresh
to strong E trade winds are noted over the deep tropics south of
15N between 35W and 60W, with 8 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E
to SE winds and 8 to 10 ft are noted elsewhere south of the ridge
axis. Gentle SE to S breezes and 5 to 7 ft in N to NE swell along
the ridge axis.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will extend from 31N67W to central Cuba by Thu
morning, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning while
dissipating. High pressure will follow the front. Then, a ridge
will dominate most of the forecast area through the end of the
week. The next cold front is expected to clip the waters offshore
of NE Florida late Fri into Sat, resulting in fresh to strong
southerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas N of 28N and east
of 70W. Conditions will improve Sun, but a stronger cold front
reaching the same area on Mon.

$$
Christensen

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759
AXNT20 KNHC 041007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Dec 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1005 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W.
The ITCZ stretches from 06N20W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from south of 10N and east of 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A warm front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure centered over
the central Texas coast to the eastern Gulf waters. Moderate to
fresh easterly SE-E winds are found in the western and central
Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds over the
western and central Gulf will diminish later today. A cold front
will enter the NW waters this afternoon and fresh to strong N
winds are expected in its wake. The front will extend from SE
Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall and also
lift north toward the northern Gulf on Sat. Looking ahead, a
stronger cold front is likely to sweep across the Gulf region Sun
into Mon, bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds over much of the
basin. This front is forecast to move SE of the area late on Mon
or Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers are evident over the eastern Caribbean, while generally
fair conditions persist elsewhere. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E
winds are found over much of the basin. Seas of 4-7 ft are present
in the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, while slight seas
prevail in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic
will gradually slide eastward, supporting moderate to fresh
easterly winds over much of the basin through early next week.
Locally strong NE winds may pulse at night off NW Colombia
tonight. Meanwhile, locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist
across the NE Caribbean passages into early next week. Looking
ahead, a cold front may approach the NW Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N67W to Miami, Florida. No
significant convection is seen west of 60W. Moderate easterly
winds and moderate seas are found south of 23N and west of 70W.
Light to gentle winds and moderate to locally rough seas are
present elsewhere west of 60W. Farther east, a surface trough and
divergence aloft support numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 26N and between 50W and 60W. The remainder
of the central and eastern Atlantic sustain fresh to strong
easterly winds and rough seas to 11 ft over much of the area,
especially south of 25N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary portion of the front
is likely to dissipate today into Fri, while the cold front,
mainly north of our area, continues eastward. High pressure will
follow the front. The next cold front is expected to clip the
waters offshore of NE Florida late Fri into Sat, resulting in
fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas
N of 28N and east of 70W. Conditions will improve Sun, but a
stronger cold front reaching the same area on Mon. Fresh to strong
winds and rough seas will develop north of 26N Mon and quickly
shift eastward. Conditions will improve Tue.

$$
Delgado

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352
AXNT20 KNHC 041748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Dec 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N23W.
The ITCZ stretches from 04N23W to 01.5N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from south of 10N and east of 40W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A warm front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure centered near
the SE Texas coast to near 28N88W, where it becomes a stationary
front that runs into the SW FL Peninsula near Naples. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along these fronts from the surface
eastward to about 86W. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh
to strong NE winds occurring in the NE Gulf north of these frontal
boundaries. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds prevail across much
of the Gulf S of these frontal boundaries. Seas are analyzed at
3-6 ft W of 90W, and 1-4 ft E of 90W.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds are
expected over much of the Gulf today ahead of a cold front moving
through the southern United States. The front is slated to enter
the northwestern basin later today, and fresh to locally strong N
to NE winds and moderate seas will occur in the western Gulf
behind the front into Fri afternoon, with localized near-gale
force winds possible offshore of northeastern Mexico. Mainly
moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin Fri
night into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to
enter the northwestern Gulf on Sun and sweep over the basin into
early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and
building seas in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough analyzed across the eastern Caribbean is helping
in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
generally E of 68W. Outside of convection, moderate to fresh
trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail across much of the basin. Locally
higher seas of 6-8 ft are analyzed offshore NW Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas are expected over much of the Caribbean through late Sat as low
pressure prevails over the south-central basin and high pressure
drifts eastward in the central Atlantic. Locally strong winds may
pulse offshore of Colombia late tonight. Mainly moderate trade
winds are then expected Sun into next week. Rough seas in E swell
will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles and through the Atlantic
Passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may
approach the NW Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N66W to near Miami, Florida. No
significant convection is seen west of 60W. Moderate NE winds
follow this front. Another cold front extends from near 31N56W to
29N61W, with a frontal remnant trough then extending
southwestward from 29N61W to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Scattered moderate convection is seen east of the front and
trough, generally N of 25N and W of 45W. A recent scatterometer
pass indicated fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front,
generally N of 25N and W of 50W. Farther east across the Atlantic,
a broad upper level trough is leading to multiple areas of
scattered showers occurring from 15N to 28N and E of 40W.

Outside of convection, ridging stemming from a 1029 mb high near
35N25W extends across much of the basin. This results in a large
swath of fresh to strong trades and rough seas in E swell south
of a line extending from Puerto Rico to the Canary Islands, and N
of 07N. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in E swell and moderate
to fresh trade winds south of 22N and east of 60W will slowly
subside into Fri. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front is slated to
move through the central Atlantic on Fri, leading to fresh NW to
NE winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through Fri
night. A low pressure system moving through the southern United
States will support fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore of
northern Florida by Fri morning, with fresh winds and locally
rough seas expanding eastward into the central Atlantic this
weekend. A cold front associated with this system will push
offshore of the southeastern U.S. this weekend, leading to locally
fresh N to NE winds in the wake of the front offshore of Florida.
Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold
front may move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early
next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and
building seas behind the front.

$$
Adams

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212
AXNT20 KNHC 042212
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Dec 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 04N23W. The ITCZ
stretches from 04N23W to 02N50W. Numerous moderate convection is
along and north of both boundaries to 10N.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to near 25N87W,
where it transitions to a warm front that stretches north to a
1016 mb low pressure just offshore the mouth of the Mississippi
River. Scattered moderated convection is along and north of the
warm front. A stationary front then continues west from the low to
a stronger low, at 1014 mb, just offshore Galveston Bay. Extending
SW from this low is a cold front that reaches inland at the
U.S.-Mexico border. Between the cold front and the Texas coast,
scattered moderate convection is ongoing, along with fresh to
strong N winds and building seas of 5 to 7 ft. N of the warm front
in the far NE Gulf, fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist.
Elsehwere in the basin, winds are moderate or less, with seas
mainly of 2 to 4 ft, except under 2 ft within 120 nm of the
Florida Peninsula.

For the forecast, the cold front in the NW Gulf will move
southeastward over the basin through Fri, and fresh to locally
strong N to NE winds and moderate seas will occur in the western
Gulf behind the front into Fri afternoon. Localized near- gale
force winds will be possible offshore of northeastern Mexico early
on Fri. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over
the basin Fri evening into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep
over the basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N
to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extending along 67W from Puerto Rico to Venezuela
is inducing scattered moderate convection over the SE basin, S of
16N and E of 69W. Another surface trough in the NW basin is
producing no sensible weather. Fresh winds and moderate seas
encompass most of the basin aside from the NW, where gentle winds
and seas prevail. Locally fresh trades and rough seas are ongoing
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate
seas are expected over much of the Caribbean through this weekend
as low pressure prevails over the south-central basin and high
pressure drifts eastward in the central Atlantic. Locally strong
winds may pulse offshore of Colombia late tonight. Mainly moderate
trade winds are then expected early next week. Rough seas in E
swell will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles and through the
Atlantic Passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold
front may approach the northwestern Caribbean early next week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas, where
it transitions to a stationary front and continues through the
Florida Straits. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N55W to the
Turks and Caicos. Scattered moderate convection is E of this
trough N of 25N and W of 50W.

Outside of convection, ridging stemming from a 1029 mb high near
35N25W extends across much of the basin. This results in a large
swath of fresh trades and moderate rough seas in E swell south of
a line extending from Puerto Rico to the Canary Islands, and N of
07N. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in E swell south of 22N
and east of 60W will slowly subside into Fri. Elsewhere, a
weakening cold front is slated to move through the central
Atlantic on Fri, leading to fresh NW to NE winds and rough seas
north of 27N and east of 65W through Fri night. A low pressure
system moving through the southern United States will support
fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore of northern Florida by
Fri morning, with fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas
expanding eastward into the central Atlantic this weekend. A cold
front associated with this system will push offshore of the
southeastern U.S. this weekend, leading to locally fresh N to NE
winds in the wake of the front offshore of Florida. Looking ahead,
a complex low pressure system and strong cold front may move
through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week,
supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas
ahead of and behind the front.

$$
Konarik

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268
AXNT20 KNHC 042212
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Dec 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 04N23W. The ITCZ
stretches from 04N23W to 02N50W. Numerous moderate convection is
along and north of both boundaries to 10N.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to near 25N87W,
where it transitions to a warm front that stretches north to a
1016 mb low pressure just offshore the mouth of the Mississippi
River. Scattered moderated convection is along and north of the
warm front. A stationary front then continues west from the low to
a stronger low, at 1014 mb, just offshore Galveston Bay. Extending
SW from this low is a cold front that reaches inland at the
U.S.-Mexico border. Between the cold front and the Texas coast,
scattered moderate convection is ongoing, along with fresh to
strong N winds and building seas of 5 to 7 ft. N of the warm front
in the far NE Gulf, fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist.
Elsehwere in the basin, winds are moderate or less, with seas
mainly of 2 to 4 ft, except under 2 ft within 120 nm of the
Florida Peninsula.

For the forecast, the cold front in the NW Gulf will move
southeastward over the basin through Fri, and fresh to locally
strong N to NE winds and moderate seas will occur in the western
Gulf behind the front into Fri afternoon. Localized near- gale
force winds will be possible offshore of northeastern Mexico early
on Fri. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over
the basin Fri evening into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep
over the basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N
to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extending along 67W from Puerto Rico to Venezuela
is inducing scattered moderate convection over the SE basin, S of
16N and E of 69W. Another surface trough in the NW basin is
producing no sensible weather. Fresh winds and moderate seas
encompass most of the basin aside from the NW, where gentle winds
and seas prevail. Locally fresh trades and rough seas are ongoing
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate
seas are expected over much of the Caribbean through this weekend
as low pressure prevails over the south-central basin and high
pressure drifts eastward in the central Atlantic. Locally strong
winds may pulse offshore of Colombia late tonight. Mainly moderate
trade winds are then expected early next week. Rough seas in E
swell will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles and through the
Atlantic Passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold
front may approach the northwestern Caribbean early next week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas, where
it transitions to a stationary front and continues through the
Florida Straits. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N55W to the
Turks and Caicos. Scattered moderate convection is E of this
trough N of 25N and W of 50W.

Outside of convection, ridging stemming from a 1029 mb high near
35N25W extends across much of the basin. This results in a large
swath of fresh trades and moderate rough seas in E swell south of
a line extending from Puerto Rico to the Canary Islands, and N of
07N. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in E swell south of 22N
and east of 60W will slowly subside into Fri. Elsewhere, a
weakening cold front is slated to move through the central
Atlantic on Fri, leading to fresh NW to NE winds and rough seas
north of 27N and east of 65W through Fri night. A low pressure
system moving through the southern United States will support
fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore of northern Florida by
Fri morning, with fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas
expanding eastward into the central Atlantic this weekend. A cold
front associated with this system will push offshore of the
southeastern U.S. this weekend, leading to locally fresh N to NE
winds in the wake of the front offshore of Florida. Looking ahead,
a complex low pressure system and strong cold front may move
through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week,
supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas
ahead of and behind the front.

$$
Konarik

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742
AXNT20 KNHC 050607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Dec 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 07N19W. The ITCZ
stretches from 07N19W to 04N33W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N to 13N between 12W and 43W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pres near 29N91W to
Tamaulipas and a few showers are noted near the boundary. A warm
front also extends from the low NE and along the Florida
Panhandle. Ahead of the front, a weak pre-frontal trough extends
from 28N85W to 24N87W. Otherwise, the tail of a dissipating
stationary front is across the Florida Straits. Behind the front,
winds are fresh to strong from the north and seas and seas are
moderate to 6 ft. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate or weaker
and seas are slight.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and
moderate seas will occur in the western Gulf behind the front into
Fri afternoon. Localized near-gale force winds will be possible
offshore of northeastern Mexico early on Fri. Mainly moderate or
weaker winds are then expected over the basin Fri evening into
Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to enter the
northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep over the basin into early
next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building
seas in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic surface ridging extending across the northern Caribbean
is supporting the continuation of moderate to fresh trade winds in
the central and eastern basin where seas are moderate to 7 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds are elswewhere, except for fresh NE to E
winds in the Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba. Seas are
slight to moderate with this winds.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and
moderate seas are expected over much of the Caribbean through this
weekend as low pressure prevails over the south-central basin and
high pressure drifts eastward in the central Atlantic. Locally
strong winds may pulse offshore of Colombia late tonight. Mainly
moderate trade winds are then expected early next week. Rough seas
in E swell will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles and through
the Atlantic Passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold
front may approach the northwestern Caribbean early next week,
allowing for generally tranquil marine conditions in the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N61W to the central Bahamas where
it becomes stall to the Florida Straits and also starts to
dissipate. Surface ridging dominate the remainder subtropical
waters along with moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate
seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening cold front is slated to
move through the central Atlantic on Fri, leading to fresh NW to
NE winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through Fri
night. A low pressure system moving through the southern United
States will support fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore of
northern Florida by Fri morning, with fresh to strong winds and
locally rough seas expanding eastward into the central Atlantic
this weekend. A cold front associated with this system will push
offshore of the southeastern U.S. this weekend, leading to locally
fresh N to NE winds in the wake of the front offshore of Florida.
Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold
front may move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early
next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and
building seas ahead of and behind the front.

$$
Ramos

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290
AXNT20 KNHC 051011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Dec 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0955 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N21W. The ITCZ
stretches from 02N21W to 04N33W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 11N and between 20W and 50W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low pres near 29N89W to Cabo
Rojo, Mexico. A few showers are seen north of 28N and between 85W
and 93W. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 6-9 ft are occurring
behind the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong SE winds and
moderate seas are found ahead of the front and north of 29N.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will
occur in the western Gulf behind the front into this afternoon.
Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin
this evening into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected
to enter the northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep over the
basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW
winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N
winds and rough seas may develop off Veracruz Mon afternoon. Winds
and seas will diminish Tue into Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas over much of the basin.
Rough seas are occurring in the Atlantic passages of the Lesser
Antilles due to NE-E swell. Pockets of moisture is generating a
few showers over the central Caribbean, while generally favorable
weather conditions are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure centered north of the islands and lower pressures in
northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A
persistent NE-E swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic
passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the northwestern
Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N60W to 29N62W, where it becomes
a dissipating stationary front to the Florida Straits. A few
surface troughs are seen ahead of this boundary and scattered
showers are noted east of 60W and north of 25N. Moderate to fresh
winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found north of 27N
and between 45W and 63W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
and moderate seas are occurring south of 23N and west of 71W.
In the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

A broad subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1026 mb
high pressure near Madeira Island to north of Hispaniola. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough
seas south of a line from 31N20W to Puerto Rico. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening cold front located east
of Bermuda is slated to move through the central Atlantic today
and Sat, leading to fresh winds and rough seas north of 27N and
east of 65W through tonight. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SW
winds and moderate seas will develop off NE Florida today ahead
of a cold front that will enter the area tonight. These winds and
seas will push east quickly Sat into Sat night. The front will
extend from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun morning and
dissipate Sun night. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system
and strong cold front may move through the northwestern tropical
Atlantic by early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong
winds and building seas ahead of and behind the front.

$$
Delgado

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327
AXNT20 KNHC 051011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Dec 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0955 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N21W. The ITCZ
stretches from 02N21W to 04N33W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 11N and between 20W and 50W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low pres near 29N89W to Cabo
Rojo, Mexico. A few showers are seen north of 28N and between 85W
and 93W. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 6-9 ft are occurring
behind the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong SE winds and
moderate seas are found ahead of the front and north of 29N.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will
occur in the western Gulf behind the front into this afternoon.
Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin
this evening into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected
to enter the northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep over the
basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW
winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N
winds and rough seas may develop off Veracruz Mon afternoon. Winds
and seas will diminish Tue into Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas over much of the basin.
Rough seas are occurring in the Atlantic passages of the Lesser
Antilles due to NE-E swell. Pockets of moisture is generating a
few showers over the central Caribbean, while generally favorable
weather conditions are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure centered north of the islands and lower pressures in
northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A
persistent NE-E swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic
passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the northwestern
Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N60W to 29N62W, where it becomes
a dissipating stationary front to the Florida Straits. A few
surface troughs are seen ahead of this boundary and scattered
showers are noted east of 60W and north of 25N. Moderate to fresh
winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found north of 27N
and between 45W and 63W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
and moderate seas are occurring south of 23N and west of 71W.
In the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

A broad subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1026 mb
high pressure near Madeira Island to north of Hispaniola. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough
seas south of a line from 31N20W to Puerto Rico. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening cold front located east
of Bermuda is slated to move through the central Atlantic today
and Sat, leading to fresh winds and rough seas north of 27N and
east of 65W through tonight. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SW
winds and moderate seas will develop off NE Florida today ahead
of a cold front that will enter the area tonight. These winds and
seas will push east quickly Sat into Sat night. The front will
extend from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun morning and
dissipate Sun night. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system
and strong cold front may move through the northwestern tropical
Atlantic by early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong
winds and building seas ahead of and behind the front.

$$
Delgado

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404
AXNT20 KNHC 051753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Dec 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N22W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N22W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 12N and between 10W and 42W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pres near Destin, FL to
near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection follows the
front generally N of 27N and E of 92W. Moderate to fresh N to NW
winds and seas of 5-9 ft are behind the cold front. Ahead of the
front, moderate to locally fresh S winds and 3-5 ft seas are
observed. In the Bay of Campeche, a pair of surface troughs are
leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms forming
near both trough axes.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pres
near Destin, Florida to 26N93W to Veracruz, Mexico this morning,
with scattered showers noted along the front. Fresh to strong N
winds and rough seas will prevail across the western Gulf behind
the front into this afternoon before winds and seas begin to
diminish. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over
the basin this evening into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front
is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep
over the basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N
to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force
NW-N winds may develop off Veracruz Mon afternoon. Winds and seas
will diminish Tue into Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to locally
strong trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, along with 5-7
ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and 2-5 ft seas
prevail across western portions of the Caribbean. A weak upper
level trough and pockets of enhanced moisture in the central
Caribbean are also leading to scattered moderate convection
occurring in a region from 13N to 17N between 72W and 80W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between weak high
pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and
eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic
passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the northwestern
Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N52W to near 23N64W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along the trough axis from 27N56W
northeastward. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to locally
strong SW winds and 6-9 ft seas ahead of this feature generally N
of 27N and W of 45W. Another trough follows and extends from
31N55W to near 26N70W. A shift from gentle S winds south of this
trough to moderate to fresh N winds north of the trough is
observed in scatterometer data. To the west, a 1018 mb low near
29N67W extends another frontal remnant trough southwestward
through the Bahamas and Florida Straits. No significant convection
or wind shifts are observed with this feature. Off the east coast
of FL and north of the Bahamas, a 1015 mb low is driving moderate
to fresh S winds ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

In the east Atlantic, an upper level low over the Canary Islands
embedded within a broad upper level trough is leading to the
development of scattered moderate convection between 12N and 20N
and E of 30W, with widely scattered showers also observed N of 20N
and E of 30W. Outside of convection, a surface ridging pattern is
prevalent across the Atlantic, resulting in moderate to fresh
trades and 6-9 ft seas across much of the basin S of 20N, as well
as areas N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail across much of the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from
just SE of Bermuda to 26N70W is expected to move eastward across
the central Atlantic today through Sat, leading to fresh winds and
rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through tonight.
Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas will
develop off NE Florida today ahead of the next cold front that
will enter the area tonight. These winds and seas will push
quickly eastward Sat into Sat night. The front will extend from
near Bermuda to central Florida Sun morning and dissipate Sun
night. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong
cold front will move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by
early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and
building seas ahead of and behind the front.

$$
Adams

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589
AXNT20 KNHC 052336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Dec 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N22W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 13N between 11W and 36W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to
25N93.5W, where it becomes stationary and continues through the
Bay of Campeche to 19N96W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring in the northern Gulf behind the front, north of 27N.
Mainly moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted north
and west of the front, with locally fresh NW winds and seas to 8
ft occurring offshore of Veracruz. Mainly moderate SE to SW winds
and 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over the remainder of the basin ahead
of the front.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish behind the
aforementioned cold front this evening and tonight. Mainly
moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin into
Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to enter the
northwestern Gulf Sun evening and sweep over the basin into early
next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building
seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N winds may develop
off Veracruz Mon afternoon and evening. Winds and seas will
diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean
and W Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh trades in
the central and eastern Caribbean, along with 5-7 ft seas.
Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail
across western portions of the Caribbean. Rough seas of 8-10 ft
in E swell are occurring east of the Lesser Antilles and through
the Atlantic Passages. A weak upper level trough and pockets of
enhanced moisture in the central Caribbean are also leading to
scattered moderate convection occurring in a region from 14N to
17N between 75W and 82W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between weak high
pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh
E trade winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A
persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic
passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may approach the
northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the area through
Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N51W to near 23N67W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen along the trough axis from
26N56W northeastward. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and 6-9
ft seas are noted ahead of this feature generally N of 28N and W
of 45W. Another trough follows and extends from 31N54W to near
23N73W. A shift from gentle S winds south of this trough to
moderate to locally fresh N winds north of the trough is noted.
To the west, a 1018 mb low near 29N67W extends another frontal
remnant trough southwestward through the Bahamas and Florida
Straits. No significant convection or wind shifts are observed
with this feature. Off the east coast of FL and north of the
Bahamas, a strengthening 1011 mb low is driving moderate to fresh
S to SW winds ahead of a cold front pushing off the southeast
coast of the United States.

In the east Atlantic, an upper level low over the Canary Islands
embedded within a broad upper level trough is leading to the
development of scattered showers near the islands. Farther south,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring east
of 36W. Outside of convection, a surface ridging pattern is
prevalent across the Atlantic, resulting in moderate to fresh
trades and 6-9 ft seas across much of the basin S of 20N, as well
as areas N of 20N and E of 35W. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail across much of the remainder of the
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from S
of Bermuda to east of the Bahamas is expected to move eastward
across the central Atlantic through Sat, leading to fresh winds
and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through tonight.
Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas
prevail off NE Florida ahead of the next cold front that will
enter the area tonight. These winds and seas will push quickly
eastward Sat into Sat night. The front will extend from near
Bermuda to central Florida by early Sun morning and dissipate Sun
evening. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong
cold front will move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by
early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and
building seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue.

$$
ADAMS

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811
AXNT20 KNHC 052336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Dec 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N22W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 13N between 11W and 36W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to
25N93.5W, where it becomes stationary and continues through the
Bay of Campeche to 19N96W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring in the northern Gulf behind the front, north of 27N.
Mainly moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted north
and west of the front, with locally fresh NW winds and seas to 8
ft occurring offshore of Veracruz. Mainly moderate SE to SW winds
and 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over the remainder of the basin ahead
of the front.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish behind the
aforementioned cold front this evening and tonight. Mainly
moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin into
Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to enter the
northwestern Gulf Sun evening and sweep over the basin into early
next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building
seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N winds may develop
off Veracruz Mon afternoon and evening. Winds and seas will
diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean
and W Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh trades in
the central and eastern Caribbean, along with 5-7 ft seas.
Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail
across western portions of the Caribbean. Rough seas of 8-10 ft
in E swell are occurring east of the Lesser Antilles and through
the Atlantic Passages. A weak upper level trough and pockets of
enhanced moisture in the central Caribbean are also leading to
scattered moderate convection occurring in a region from 14N to
17N between 75W and 82W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between weak high
pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh
E trade winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A
persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic
passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may approach the
northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the area through
Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N51W to near 23N67W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen along the trough axis from
26N56W northeastward. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and 6-9
ft seas are noted ahead of this feature generally N of 28N and W
of 45W. Another trough follows and extends from 31N54W to near
23N73W. A shift from gentle S winds south of this trough to
moderate to locally fresh N winds north of the trough is noted.
To the west, a 1018 mb low near 29N67W extends another frontal
remnant trough southwestward through the Bahamas and Florida
Straits. No significant convection or wind shifts are observed
with this feature. Off the east coast of FL and north of the
Bahamas, a strengthening 1011 mb low is driving moderate to fresh
S to SW winds ahead of a cold front pushing off the southeast
coast of the United States.

In the east Atlantic, an upper level low over the Canary Islands
embedded within a broad upper level trough is leading to the
development of scattered showers near the islands. Farther south,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring east
of 36W. Outside of convection, a surface ridging pattern is
prevalent across the Atlantic, resulting in moderate to fresh
trades and 6-9 ft seas across much of the basin S of 20N, as well
as areas N of 20N and E of 35W. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail across much of the remainder of the
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from S
of Bermuda to east of the Bahamas is expected to move eastward
across the central Atlantic through Sat, leading to fresh winds
and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through tonight.
Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas
prevail off NE Florida ahead of the next cold front that will
enter the area tonight. These winds and seas will push quickly
eastward Sat into Sat night. The front will extend from near
Bermuda to central Florida by early Sun morning and dissipate Sun
evening. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong
cold front will move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by
early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and
building seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue.

$$
ADAMS

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282
AXNT20 KNHC 060610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Dec 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 06N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N21W to 06N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 13N between
13W and 37W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from near Cedar Key, Florida to 26N90W,
then becomes nearly stationary to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the
basin. Otherwise, scattered showers associated with the front are
affecting the north-central and NW offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will
persist into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to
enter the northwestern Gulf Sun evening and sweep over the basin
into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and
building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N winds may
develop off Veracruz Mon afternoon and evening. Winds and seas
will diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls across the NW
Caribbean and W Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh trades in
the central and eastern Caribbean, along with 5-7 ft seas.
Moderate to locally fresh E winds and 3-7 ft seas prevail across
SW portions of the Caribbean. In the NW basin, winds are moderate
or weaker and seas are slight. Rough seas of 8-10 ft in E swell
are occurring east of the Lesser Antilles and through the Atlantic
Passages. Otherwise, scattered showers are ongoing across the
offshore waters of E Honduras and south Jamaica.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between weak high
pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and
eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic
passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may approach the
northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the area through
Wed. High pressure will build by the middle of next week, leading
to strong winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean into
late next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N80W to Jacksonville, Florida and is
supporting fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate to
locally rough seas off NE Florida. A frontal trough extends from
31N50W to 25N64W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the
trough N of 26N between 40W and 48W. Modearte to locally fresh SW
winds are ahead of the trough to 40W along with rough seas to 9
ft. Surface ridging is elsewhere across the subtropical Atlantic.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are ongoing from 20N to 22N
between 30W and 75W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal trough will move
eastward across the central Atlantic through Sat, leading to
locally fresh winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 60W
through tonight. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate to
locally rough seas off NE Florida associated with the cold front
will push quickly eastward Sat into Sat night, mainly N of 30N.
The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida by
early Sun morning and dissipate Sun evening. Looking ahead, a
complex low pressure system and strong cold front will move
through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week,
supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas
ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue.

$$
Ramos

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834
AXNT20 KNHC 061007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Dec 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1005 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to
05N35W to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 02N to 11N and between 13W and 29W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends from near Yankeetown, Florida to
26N90W, then becomes a stationary front to near Veracruz, Mexico.
A few showers are noted behind the front. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail across the basin and these marine conditions will persist
into Sun afternoon. A new cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf Sun evening and sweep over the basin into early next week,
leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas in the
wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N winds may develop off Veracruz
Mon afternoon and evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into
Wed as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean and W Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cluster of showers associated with a weak surface trough are
moving into the NW Caribbean, extending from 14N to 18N and
between 79W and 84W. Pockets of low-level moisture are also
bringing isolated showers to the eastern and central Caribbean.
High pressure north of the area continues to support moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas in
the eastern and central Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate pressure gradient between weak high
pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central
and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere. A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in
the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles through the
forecast period. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may
approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the
area through Wed. High pressure will build in by the middle of
next week, leading to strong winds and rough seas in the south-
central Caribbean into late next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N77W to Palm Coast, Florida. Fresh to
locally strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas are
noted ahead of the front to 70W and north of 30N. Meanwhile,
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
found south of 23N and west of 55W. Elsewhere west of 55W, light
to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

A frontal trough extends from 31N47W to 24N61W and moderate to
locally strong SW winds and seas of 6-10 ft are found east of the
trough to 35W and north of 27N. A broad subtropical ridge extends
southwestward from a 1025 mb high pressure in the far eastern
Atlantic to the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in moderate to
fresh easterly winds and rough seas south of 22N and between
Africa and Lesser Antilles. In the remainder of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the winds and seas associated with
the front off NE Florida will push eastward quickly today into
Sun. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida by
early Sun morning and dissipate Sun evening. Looking ahead, a
complex low pressure system and strong cold front will move
through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week,
supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas
ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue. Conditions will
improve late Tue into Wed.

$$
Delgado

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697
AXNT20 KNHC 061802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Dec 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from a 1011 mb low analyzed
at the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and then extends to 04N21W and
then to 04N26W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N26W to 03N39W and
then to 09N61W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
observed S of 12N and E of 30W. Scattered moderate convection is
also seen from 07N to 11N between 50W and 58W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Big Bend of Florida to near
29N86W where it becomes a warm front. The warm front then bends
westward and southward into the SW Gulf near 21N96W, followed
then by another stationary front that extends southward to the
Mexican coast between Veracruz and Minatitlan. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 24N to 26N between 93W and 95W, with
widely scattered showers seen north and west of these frontal
boundaries. Scatterometer data from 1505 UTC indicated a weak
surface low forming along the front near 25N95W, with locally
fresh to strong winds in cyclonic flow surrounding the low.
Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail north of the frontal
boundaries, with moderate or weaker S to SE winds south of the
fronts. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend
to 28.5N87W, then becomes nearly stationary to 26N94W to just S of
Veracruz, Mexico. A few clusters of showers continue along and
behind the stationary portion of the front. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail N and W of the front and will
persist into Sun afternoon. A new cold front is expected to enter
the NW Gulf Sun evening and overtake the current front, while
sweeping across the basin into early next week. This will lead to
fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the
front. Gale-force NW to N winds may develop off Veracruz Mon
afternoon and evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed
as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean and W Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cluster of showers associated with a weak surface trough are
moving across the western Caribbean, with convection observed from
12N to 18.5N and W of 80W. Elsewhere across the basin, the
pressure gradient between the Colombia low and higher pressure to
the north drives fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades in the eastern Caribbean.
Much of the Caribbean W of 80W is seeing moderate or weaker trades
prevail. Seas of 5-8 ft are prevalent E of 80W, with seas of 2-5
ft W of 80W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between weak high
pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and
eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic
passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a weakening cold front will approach the
northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the area through
Wed. High pressure will build in by the middle of next week,
leading to strong winds and rough seas in the south- central
Caribbean into late next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N77W to the NE FL coast.
Moderate ot locally fresh winds prevail on both sides of the
boundary with no notable convection nearby. In the central
Atlantic, a frontal remnant trough extends from near 31N45W to
24N62W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
along and near the trough axis. A recent scatterometer pass
indicated moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of this trough, N of
26N and out to about 35W. To the east, a weak 1019 mb low is
analyzed near 30N35W. The surface winds around this low and ahead
of a cold front to the north helping to maintain numerous moderate
convection N of 30N between 31W and 43W. In the east Atlantic, a
persistent upper level low embedded within a broad upper level
trough is leading to a large area of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 12N to 20N and E of 25W, as well as
over the waters between the Canary Islands and the coast of
Morocco.

Outside of convection, surface ridging prevails across much of the
Atlantic. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6-9 ft prevail across
much of the basin S of 20N, as well as an area from 23N to the
Canary Islands and E of 20W. Much of the Atlantic elsewhere and
away from frontal boundaries is seeing moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front has stalled across the
far NW waters from 31N78W to near Palm Coast, Florida. Fresh to
locally strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas are noted ahead
of the front to 65W and north of 30N. These winds and seas will
shift quickly eastward today into Sun, as the front begins to move
eastward. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central
Florida by early Sun morning and dissipate Sun evening. Looking
ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold front will
move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next
week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building
seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue. The cold front
will reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of
Florida Mon evening, then weaken and stall along about 27N by Tue
evening. Large N swell generated behind the front will diminish
across the area waters on Wed.

$$
Adams

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212=20
AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Dec 07 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A somewhat strong cold front is=20
forecast to move across the Gulf during the upcoming week,=20
followed by fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building=20
seas. Gale-force northwest to north winds are expected off=20
Veracruz Mon evening along with seas peaking to around 11 ft (3.5=20
m). Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the front becomes
stationary from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel=20
while high pressure settles across the central Gulf.=20

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-zVBPFneSNawFDVv3RVzTpEZuaiN43kZHk4Dmia6xNpBmuEfJYA6YdmbDE4A2CIGq= KT1YNcijZiPs8pXnzPP2tHRlVg$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa=20
near 10N14W, and continues southwestward to 05N18W and to 05N23W,=20
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N30W to 03N28W, and=20
northwestward from there to 05N45W and to near 08N54W. Scattered=20
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 07N=20
between 14W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm=20
north of the ITCZ between 31W-34W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on=20
upcoming gale conditions expected off Veracruz, Mexico.

A weak cold front extends across central Florida to offshore the
coast near Clearwater Beach and continues to 27N87W and to a weak
1011 mb low near 26N94W. A stationary front extends from the low=20
to 22N94W, where it begins to dissipate to near 19N95W. Light to=20
gentle winds are over most of the basin, except for northeast=20
winds of gentle to moderate north of the boundary over the north-=20
central and NE Gulf sections. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft=20
across the area. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast mostly
low clouds, with embedded patches of light to moderate along and=20
to the north of the frontal boundary. Small patches of fog may be=20
present underneath this cloudiness.=20

For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are expected
today as the front weakens further and drifts back to the north.=20
A new and somewhat stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf Sun evening and overtake the current front, while sweeping=20
across the basin into early next week. This will lead to fresh to=20
strong northwest to north winds and building seas in the wake of=20
the front. Gale-force northwest to north winds are expected off=20
Veracruz Mon evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as
the front stalls across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of=20
Florida, and high pressure settles across the central Gulf.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over the western Caribbean roughly
along 84W south of 18.5N to inland Honduras and Nicaragua. Gentle=20
to moderate trade winds are near the trough. Scattered showers and=20 thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm west of the trough from 16N=20
to 18.5N while isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm=20
east of the trough from 16N to 18.5N. An area of scattered showers=20
and isolated thunderstorms is east of Nicaragua roughly from 10N
to 14N between 79W and 82W. This activity remains under the=20
western periphery of a broad mid to upper-level ridge. Elsewhere=20
across the basin, atmospheric moisture remains quite limited with
the broad ridge aloft maintaining rather stable conditions, and=20
only allowing for small patches of moisture that may be accompanied
by isolated showers.=20

The pressure gradient between high pressure located north of the=20
basin and the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh trade winds
over the east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate=20
winds are over the remainder of the western Caribbean. Seas of 5=20
to 8 ft in an east swell are east of 80W, and seas of 3 to 5 ft=20
are west of 80W, except for slightly lowers seas of 2 to 4 ft=20
north 18N west of 85W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between a weak=20
Atlantic ridge along 26N, north of the Greater Antilles, and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to=20
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and=20
eastern Caribbean through the middle of the upcoming week. Strong
winds will pulse off NW Colombia tonight, along with locally=20
rough seas. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas=20
will prevail elsewhere. A persistent northeast to east swell will
support rough seas across the Atlantic waters and passages of the
Lesser Antilles through next Thu. Looking ahead, a weakening cold
front will approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue, and linger
across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida through Wed.=20
High pressure will build across the eastern Gulf of America by the
middle of the upcoming week, leading to strong winds and rough=20
seas in the south-central Caribbean late into the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N75W southwestward to inland=20
central Florida near Cocoa Beach. Fresh to locally strong
southwest to west winds are ahead of the front to near 54W and
north of 29N as indicated by recent scatterometer satellite data=20
passes. The scatterometer satellite data passes also indicate
fresh to strong northwest to north winds behind the front. Both=20
recent altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations
reveal seas of 5 to 7 ft behind the front, and seas of 7 to 10 ft
in west to northwest swell north of about 27N between 30W and=20
60W. To the east of the front, a frontal trough extends from near=20
31N36W southwestward to 28N48W and to near 25N58W. Satellite=20
imagery shows scattered to broken high cirrus clouds streaming=20 east-southeastward across the trough, with scattered to locally=20
broken low clouds underneath. Isolated small showers and=20
thunderstorms are seen north of 29N between 34W and 47W. Latest=20 scatterometer satellite data passes depict gentle to moderate=20
southwest winds east of the trough to near 28N and north of 27N.=20
The remainder of the Atlantic basin remains under the influence=20
of a ridge that is anchored by a 1024 mb high center present=20
just to the north of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh trade
winds and moderate to rough seas dominate the tropical Atlantic.=20
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.=20
Overcast to broken mostly mid and high-level clouds are being=20
steered northeastward by a robust jet stream branch over the far=20
eastern Atlantic southeast of a line from 20N16W to 13N34W,=20
southward over the ITCZ region and to near 05N. These clouds are=20
advecting to well inland West Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front along=20
with its associated wind and sea conditions will shift eastward=20
today. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida=20
by early Sun morning, then dissipate Sun afternoon. A complex low=20
pressure system and strong cold front will move into the northwestern
tropical Atlantic tonight through Mon, supporting widespread=20
fresh to near gale-force winds and building seas ahead of and=20
behind the front Mon through Tue. The cold front will reach from=20
near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue morning,
then gradually weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed. Large=20
north swell will propagate through the regional waters Tue through
Wed and diminish Wed night.=20

$$
Aguirre

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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035=20
AXNT20 KNHC 070544
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Dec 07 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A somewhat strong cold front is=20
forecast to move across the Gulf during the upcoming week,=20
followed by fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building=20
seas. Gale-force northwest to north winds are expected off=20
Veracruz Mon evening along with seas peaking to around 11 ft (3.5=20
m). Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the front becomes
stationary from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel=20
while high pressure settles across the central Gulf.=20

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!5Cyb662SU1N8QBOiVxOShjfmM_O53GK4bJWZ6tt7ehZD1G1Hee9OptaTC7aKwGhr3= 30ea41TecDCGzvqoVTXRjlHSbM$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coast of
Sierra Leone, and continues southwestward to 05N18W and to 05N23W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N30W to 03N28W, and
northwestward from there to 05N45W and to near 08N54W. Scattered=20
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 07N=20
between 14W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm=20
north of the ITCZ between 31W-34W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on=20
upcoming gale conditions expected off Veracruz, Mexico.

A weak cold front extends across central Florida to offshore the
coast near Clearwater Beach and continues to 27N87W and to a weak
1011 mb low near 26N94W. A stationary front extends from the low=20
to 22N94W, where it begins to dissipate to near 19N95W. Light to=20
gentle winds are over most of the basin, except for northeast=20
winds of gentle to moderate north of the boundary over the north-=20
central and NE Gulf sections. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft=20
across the area. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast mostly
low clouds, with embedded patches of light to moderate along and=20
to the north of the frontal boundary. Small patches of fog may be=20
present underneath this cloudiness.=20

For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are expected
today as the front weakens further and drifts back to the north.=20
A new and somewhat stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf Sun evening and overtake the current front, while sweeping=20
across the basin into early next week. This will lead to fresh to=20
strong northwest to north winds and building seas in the wake of=20
the front. Gale-force northwest to north winds are expected off=20
Veracruz Mon evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as
the front stalls across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of=20
Florida, and high pressure settles across the central Gulf.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over the western Caribbean roughly
along 84W south of 18.5N to inland Honduras and Nicaragua. Gentle=20
to moderate trade winds are near the trough. Scattered showers and=20 thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm west of the trough from 16N=20
to 18.5N while isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm=20
east of the trough from 16N to 18.5N. An area of scattered showers=20
and isolated thunderstorms is east of Nicaragua roughly from 10N
to 14N between 79W and 82W. This activity remains under the=20
western periphery of a broad mid to upper-level ridge. Elsewhere=20
across the basin, atmospheric moisture remains quite limited with
the broad ridge aloft maintaining rather stable conditions, and=20
only allowing for small patches of moisture that may be accompanied
by isolated showers.=20

The pressure gradient between high pressure located north of the=20
basin and the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh trade winds
over the east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate=20
winds are over the remainder of the western Caribbean. Seas of 5=20
to 8 ft in an east swell are east of 80W, and seas of 3 to 5 ft=20
are west of 80W, except for slightly lowers seas of 2 to 4 ft=20
north 18N west of 85W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between a weak=20
Atlantic ridge along 26N, north of the Greater Antilles, and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to=20
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and=20
eastern Caribbean through the middle of the upcoming week. Strong
winds will pulse off NW Colombia tonight, along with locally=20
rough seas. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas=20
will prevail elsewhere. A persistent northeast to east swell will
support rough seas across the Atlantic waters and passages of the
Lesser Antilles through next Thu. Looking ahead, a weakening cold
front will approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue, and linger
across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida through Wed.=20
High pressure will build across the eastern Gulf of America by the
middle of the upcoming week, leading to strong winds and rough=20
seas in the south-central Caribbean late into the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N75W southwestward to inland=20
central Florida near Cocoa Beach. Fresh to locally strong
southwest to west winds are ahead of the front to near 54W and
north of 29N as indicated by recent scatterometer satellite data=20
passes. The scatterometer satellite data passes also indicate
fresh to strong northwest to north winds behind the front. Both=20
recent altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations
reveal seas of 5 to 7 ft behind the front, and seas of 7 to 10 ft
in west to northwest swell north of about 27N between 30W and=20
60W. To the east of the front, a frontal trough extends from near=20
31N36W southwestward to 28N48W and to near 25N58W. Satellite=20
imagery shows scattered to broken high cirrus clouds streaming=20 east-southeastward across the trough, with scattered to locally=20
broken low clouds underneath. Isolated small showers and=20
thunderstorms are seen north of 29N between 34W and 47W. Latest=20 scatterometer satellite data passes depict gentle to moderate=20
southwest winds east of the trough to near 28N and north of 27N.=20
The remainder of the Atlantic basin remains under the influence=20
of a ridge that is anchored by a 1024 mb high center present=20
just to the north of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh trade
winds and moderate to rough seas dominate the tropical Atlantic.=20
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.=20
Overcast to broken mostly mid and high-level clouds are being=20
steered northeastward by a robust jet stream branch over the far=20
eastern Atlantic southeast of a line from 20N16W to 13N34W,=20
southward over the ITCZ region and to near 05N. These clouds are=20
advecting to well inland West Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front along=20
with its associated wind and sea conditions will shift eastward=20
today. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida=20
by early Sun morning, then dissipate Sun afternoon. A complex low=20
pressure system and strong cold front will move into the northwestern
tropical Atlantic tonight through Mon, supporting widespread=20
fresh to near gale-force winds and building seas ahead of and=20
behind the front Mon through Tue. The cold front will reach from=20
near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue morning,
then gradually weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed. Large=20
north swell will propagate through the regional waters Tue through
Wed and diminish Wed night.=20

$$
Aguirre

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408=20
AXNT20 KNHC 071029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Dec 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1025 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to=20
move across the Gulf tonight into Mon, followed by fresh to=20
strong northwest to north winds and building seas. Gale-force=20
northwest to north winds are expected off Veracruz Mon evening=20
along with seas peaking to around 11 ft (3.5 m). Winds and seas=20
will diminish Tue into Wed as the front becomes stationary from=20
the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel while high pressure=20
settles across the central Gulf.=20

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!8uWG_J2XOL2rRkNV5IVfHpNbSGNmSN-QWRRQ9t2aDY0TzJfBKQJNxd55bVky9ARiD= 1mORvRua60rZW1-DR7-hG3yVOw$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The=20
ITCZ extends from 03N23W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate to=20
isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N and east of
39W.

GULF OF AMERICA

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on=20
upcoming gale conditions expected off Veracruz, Mexico.

A weak stationary front extends from near Siesta Key, Florida to
the NW Gulf waters and a few showers are noted north of the
boundary. Generally drier conditions are seen elsewhere. Moderate
or lighter winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate or lighter winds and slight to=20
moderate seas prevail across the basin and will persist through=20
this evening as the front weakens and drifts northward. A cold=20
front is expected to enter the NW Gulf tonight and overtake the=20
current front, while sweeping across the basin into early next=20
week. This will lead to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building
seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW to N winds are=20
forecast off Veracruz Mon evening. Winds and seas will diminish=20
Tue into Wed as the front stalls across the Yucatan Channel and=20
Straits of Florida, and high pressure settles across the central=20
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist late Wed=20
through the end of next week.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough along 85W continues to produce scattered
showers west of 82W and south of 20N. Similar convection is noted
off NW Colombia, while pockets of low-level moisture generate
isolated showers in the eastern and central Caribbean. High
pressure north of the area result in fresh to strong easterly
trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, broad high pressure north of the islands will
support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas=20
over the central and eastern Caribbean through at least the middle
of next week. Strong winds off NW Colombia, along with locally=20
rough seas, will diminish this morning. Moderate or lighter winds=20
and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A persistent=20
E-NE swell will support rough seas across the Atlantic waters and=20
passages of the Lesser Antilles through next Thu. Looking ahead, a
weakening cold front will approach the northwestern Caribbean on=20
Tue and linger across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida=20
through Wed. High pressure will build across the eastern Gulf of=20
America by the middle of next week, leading to strong winds and=20
rough seas in the south-entral Caribbean into late next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Florida.
Moderate to locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas are
occurring north of 28N and east of 55W. Meanwhile, a subtropical
ridge extends from Africa to the Bahamas along 25N. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted south
of 23N and west of 60W. Farther east, a surface trough extends
from 31N37W to 26N52W and moderate to locally strong winds and
rough seas are present north of 26N and between 25N and 60W.
South of 21N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are prevalent.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front
extends from near Bermuda to near Stuart, Florida. Fresh to=20
locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas are noted ahead of
and behind the front. These winds and seas will shift quickly=20
eastward today with the front. The weak front is expected to=20
dissipate later today. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure=20
system and strong cold front will into the northwestern tropical=20
Atlantic tonight and Mon, supporting widespread fresh to near=20
gale-force winds and building seas ahead of and behind the front=20
Mon through Tue. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to=20
the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue morning, then gradually=20
weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed. Large N swell will=20
move into the regional waters Tue through Wed then diminish Wed=20
night.=20

$$
Delgado

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538=20
AXNT20 KNHC 071725
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Dec 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the=20 northwestern Gulf later today and sweep over the basin early this=20
week. Gale force N to NW winds are expected offshore of Veracruz=20
Mon afternoon and evening, and will be accompanied by rough seas=20
peaking near 11 ft. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and=20
rough seas will occur over much of the Gulf into early Tue. Winds
and seas are expected to diminish from northwest to southeast Tue
into Wed as the front weakens and stalls.=20

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!_UfIHqRgdrvlx7MmOHp8Xn7whzT_Hv6H0RwuzB-YehMvGif0QD39xMgxJMA30l2PE= md62npd5AVvAVBsiCzpmqv3eiQ$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06.5N11W and extends
to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 04N22W to 04N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N east of
19W, and from 02N to 09N between 26N and 37W.=20

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on=20
upcoming gale conditions expected offshore of Veracruz, Mexico.

A warm front extends over the northern Gulf from west-central=20
Florida near 27N82.5W to 27N95W. Scattered showers are occurring=20
near and to the north of this front, and gusty and erratic winds=20
and rapidly building seas are expected near this activity.=20
Moderate to fresh, with pockets of locally strong, N to NE winds=20
are occurring north of this front as observed via recent=20
scatterometer satellite data. South of the front, scatterometer=20
data show moderate S to SW winds and slight to moderate seas over=20
the rest of the basin.=20

For the forecast, an old frontal boundary extending from Florida=20
to offshore of SE Texas has begun to drift northward as a warm=20
front. Scattered showers continue north of the boundary. Moderate=20
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across=20
the basin through this evening as the front weakens and drifts=20
northward. A new cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf=20
tonight and overtake the current front, while sweeping across the=20
basin through Tue. This will lead to fresh to strong N to NW winds
and building seas in the wake of this front. Gale-force NW to N=20
winds are expected to briefly occur off Veracruz Mon evening=20
through midnight. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the
front stalls across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida,=20
and high pressure settles across the central Gulf. Light to gentle
winds and slight seas will persist late Wed through the end of=20
next week.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted on=20
recent scatterometer data across the Caribbean Sea and through the
Atlantic Passages, as the pressure gradient prevails between a=20
1010 mb low centered over the south-central basin and ridging to=20
the north. Locally strong winds and rough seas to 8 ft are=20
occurring offshore of northwestern Colombia. Rough seas of 8 to 9=20
ft in E swell continue over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles
and through the passages. Scattered showers and thunderstorms=20
prevail over the southwestern basin and in the Gulf of Honduras,=20
supported by a weak surface trough and low-level moisture in the=20
region.=20

For the forecast, broad high pressure north of the basin along=20
about 25N will support moderate to fresh E trade winds and=20
moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through at=20
least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and=20
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A persistent E-NE=20
swell will support rough seas across the Atlantic waters and=20
passages of the Lesser Antilles through next Thu. Looking ahead, a
weakening cold front will approach the northwestern Caribbean on=20
Tue and linger across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida=20
through Wed. High pressure will build across the eastern Gulf of=20
America by the middle of next week, leading to strong winds and=20
rough seas in the south-central Caribbean into late next week.=20

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N66.5W southwestward to 28N77W, where
it becomes stationary and continues through central Florida.=20
Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate to locally fresh
N to NE winds are occurring north of the front. No significant=20
convection is noted near these fronts. Farther east, a surface=20
trough has been analyzed from 30N41W to 27N49W. Scatterometer data
show moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring near the trough,=20
with locally strong winds noted near 29N. A large NW swell is=20
supporting rough seas over the central Atlantic near this feature=20
generally north of 26N and east of 55W, stemming from a complex=20
and strong low pressure system centered well north of the area.=20
Ridging extends over much of the rest of the Atlantic, from a 1022
mb high centered near 28N24W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6
to 9 ft seas prevail south of 20N, with light to gentle winds and
5 to 7 ft seas noted along the ridge axis to 25N.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds and=20
moderate to rough seas will shift quickly eastward today with the=20 aforementioned cold front, before it dissipates this evening. A=20
complex low pressure system and strong cold front will move into=20
the northwestern tropical Atlantic tonight and Mon, supporting=20
widespread strong to near gale-force winds N of 27N, and building=20
seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue. The cold front
will reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of=20
Florida Tue morning, then gradually weaken and stall along about=20
26N early Wed. Large N swell will move into the regional waters=20
Tue through Wed then diminish Wed night.=20

$$
ADAMS

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161=20
AXNT20 KNHC 072253
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Dec 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A new cold front is expected to=20
enter the NW Gulf early tonight, followed by fresh to strong=20
northwest to north winds and building seas. Gale-force NW to N=20
winds are expected to briefly occur off Veracruz Mon afternoon=20
through evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the
front stalls across the entrance to the Yucatan Channel and=20
Straits of Florida, and high pressure settles across the central=20
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist late Wed
through Fri.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4N5bDWIaSymVbhZXc6pn2bIMit_8LsAmUmNUJpM5p7HfoObkqXVyLDpVW7r9A3uIt= LO-phz5zgrwLNaU5dIVE57EyT8$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia
near 06N11W and continues SW to near extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N17W to 03N30W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 10W and 20W, and from
02N to 09N between 25N and 40W.=20

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on=20
upcoming gale conditions expected offshore of Veracruz, Mexico.

A frontal boundary persists over the northern Gulf producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh, with=20
pockets of locally strong, N to NE winds are occurring north of=20
this front as observed via recent scatterometer satellite data.=20
Within about 90 nm SE of the front, fresh to locally strong
southerly winds are noted. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas dominate the Gulf region.=20

For the forecast, the above mentioned frontal boundary will=20
weaken and drift northeastward this evening. A new cold front is=20
expected to enter the NW Gulf early tonight and overtake the=20
current front on Mon, while sweeping southeastward across the=20
basin through Tue. This will lead to fresh to strong N to NW=20
winds and building seas in the wake of this front. Please, see
the Special Features section for more details.=20

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure N of the basin=20
and the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh trades over the=20
east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate E to SE winds
are noted over the western Caribbean. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are=20
prevalent E of 80W, with seas of 2 to 5 ft W of 80W. Scattered=20
showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed over NE=20
Honduras and northern Nicaragua. A narrow band of similar=20
convective activity extends from northern Nicaragua to eastern=20
Panama. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this=20
convective activity. Elsewhere low-topped trade wind showers are=20
observed on satellite imagery.

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the basin along about=20
25N will support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and=20
moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through at=20
least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and=20
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Fresh to locally=20
strong trade winds and persistent NE to E swell will support=20
rough seas across the Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser=20
Antilles through next Fri. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front=20
will approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across
the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida through Wed night=20
before dissipating. High pressure will build across the eastern=20
Gulf of America by the middle of next week, leading to strong=20
winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean into late=20
next week.=20

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from 31N60W to just offshore of=20
the NW Bahamas, where it has become nearly stationary. Moderate
to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are noted on either
side of the front E of 65W. In the central Atlantic, a frontal=20
trough persists, and extends from near 30N36W to 26N50W. A narrow=20
band of mainly low clouds, with possible showers, is associated=20
with the trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is
under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure
located NW of the Canary Islands near 29N20W. Moderate to fresh=20
trades and moderate to rough seas dominate the tropical Atlantic.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.=20
Broken to overcast mostly mid and high-level clouds are being=20
steered northeastward by strong winds aloft from the central=20
tropical Atlantic to W Africa. These clouds are now crossing=20
south of the Cabo Verde Islands.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas associated with the
weakening cold front will shift eastward tonight as the front=20
dissipates. A complex low pressure system and strong cold front=20
will move into the northwestern tropical Atlantic waters tonight=20
through Mon, supporting widespread strong to near gale-force=20
winds N of 27N, and building seas ahead of and behind the front=20
Mon through Tue evening. The cold front will reach from near=20
Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue afternoon,=20
then gradually weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed as the=20
low pressure shifts well NE of the area. Large N swell will move=20
into the regional waters Tue through Wed then diminish Wed night.

$$
GR

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333=20
AXNT20 KNHC 080615
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Dec 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:=20
A cold front has entered the northwestern Gulf, and will steadily
sink southeastward through Monday night. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds and rough seas are expected to follow behind the front
across the western and north-central Gulf. These winds will reach
near-gale to gale-force off Veracruz Mon afternoon through late
Mon evening. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish Tue
into Wed as the front stalls across the entrance to the Yucatan
Channel and Straits of Florida, and high pressure settles across
the central Gulf.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-W3_nx1reUF6E8LMP92Z_tJBuqL2fZ_vvhu9oyyEspf_7-3fVNa0h6WscM_wIxFkV= oIWQ5y21Nb5BM93YCy4aHm3vGw$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!-W3_nx1reUF6E8LMP92Z_tJBuqL2fZ_vvhu9oyyEspf_7-3fVNa0h6WscM_wIxFkV= oIWQ5y21Nb5BM93YCy4pA6yN4g$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of=20
southern Sierra Leone to 06N15W, then extends southwestward to=20
06N16W. An ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 04N23W to 04N45W.=20
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from=20
02N to 19N between 22W and 31W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and
northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on=20
upcoming gale conditions expected offshore of Veracruz, Mexico.

A cold front extends west-southwestward from a 1012 mb low over
Tampa, Florida to west-central Gulf. Further west, another cold
front curves southwestward from near New Orleans to beyond the=20
coastal border of Texas and Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 40 nm south of the
first cold front. Scattered heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present offshore from Naples and Key West,
Florida. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft=20
are present behind the second cold front across the northwestern=20
Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to SE to SW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas=20
are seen at the east- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to S to=20
SW winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the second cold front will weaken further=20
tonight as it drifts southeastward. The second cold front is=20
expected to overtake the first front on Mon as it sweeps=20
southeastward across the basin through Tue. This will lead to=20
fresh to strong NE to N winds and building seas in the wake of=20
this front. Winds may reach near gale level in the northwestern=20
Gulf tonight into early Mon. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into
Wed as the front stalls across the entrance to the Yucatan=20
Channel and Straits of Florida, and high pressure settles across=20
the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will=20
persist late Wed through Fri night.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection or weather
in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft in the eastern and central basin. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, weak ridging north of the basin near 24N will=20
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas east of=20
84W through Fri, except trades will become fresh to strong across
the central Caribbean and the eastern part of the southwestern=20
Caribbean starting late Tue night. Moderate or lighter winds and=20
slight to moderate seas will prevail west of 84W. Long-period=20
NE to E swell will support rough seas across the Atlantic waters=20
and passages of the Lesser Antilles through Fri night. A weakening
cold front is expected to approach the northwestern Caribbean on=20
Tue and linger across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida=20
through Wed night before dissipating. High pressure will build=20
across the eastern Gulf of America by the middle of next week,=20
leading to strong winds and rough seas in the south-central=20
Caribbean into late next week.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front runs northeastward from central Florida to beyond=20
30N78W. Scattered heavy downpours and isolates Strong=20
thunderstorms are noted up to 150 nm south of this front. Farther=20
east, a surface trough near 28N70W is causing patchy showers up to
100 nm along either side of this feature. Convergent trade winds=20
are generating scattered moderate convection near the coast of=20
Guyana and Suriname. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for=20
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate S to SW to W winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft north
of 22N between 50W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. At the
eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong SW to W winds with 10 to 13 ft
are evident north of 25N between 35W and 50W. Otherwise, light to
gentle winds and 7 to 9 ft are seen from 20N to 25N. For the
tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E with 6 to 9 ft seas are noted.
Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds and=20
moderate to rough seas are near the front and east of 60W. These=20
winds and seas will shift eastward tonight as the front=20
dissipates. A complex low pressure system and strong cold front=20
will move into the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Mon,=20
supporting widespread strong to near gale-force winds north of=20
27N, and building seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through=20
Tue evening. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to the
northwest Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue afternoon, then=20
gradually weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed as the low=20
pressure shifts well NE of the area. Large north swell will move=20
into the regional waters Tue through Wed then diminish Wed night.

$$

Chan

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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702=20
AXNT20 KNHC 081042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Dec 08 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front that moved
into western portion of the Gulf last night presently extends
along a position from near Mobile, Alabama southwestward to=20
28N92W and to NE Mexico. The front will sweep across the rest=20
of the basin through Tue, perhaps stalling from near western
Cuba and the Straits of Florida by Tue evening. Fresh to strong
northwest to north winds and rough seas are expected to follow=20
behind the front across the western and north- central Gulf. These
winds will reach near-gale to gale-force off Veracruz this=20
afternoon into this evening along with seas building to around=20
12 ft (4 M). Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish=20
Tue into Wed as the front stalls from near western Cuba and the=20
Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue evening, and as
high pressure settles across the central Gulf.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4FL_yoyuCr20EahO6cDxvwslN78wX_r4WiKTVRBOxO98G8UtPFh5ZQcR_nZTh_l0k= 8C_H0Bxve8c4S-ZaBHAF6b1v00$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4FL_yoyuCr20EahO6cDxvwslN78wX_r4WiKTVRBOxO98G8UtPFh5ZQcR_nZTh_l0k= 8C_H0Bxve8c4S-ZaBHA__DwYRc$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of=20
southern Sierra Leone to 07N12W, and extends southwestward to=20
06N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N24W to 04N34W to=20
05N39W and to near 05N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong=20
convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 24W-26W,
and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-34W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between=20
24W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
gale conditions expected offshore of Veracruz, Mexico beginning
this afternoon.

A weak cold front extends from southwest Florida to 26N86W, where
it begins to dissipate to near 25N91W. Isolated showers and=20
thunderstorms moving eastward are along the front E of 85W. To
the W of the front, a strong cold front is analyzed from near=20
near Mobile, Alabama southwestward to 28N92W and to NE Mexico.=20
Fresh to near gale northerly winds as seen in an overnight=20
scatterometer satellite data pass are behind the second cold front
across the NW Gulf. Seas are in the range of 7 to 10 ft over the=20
NW Gulf west of 94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms=20
are noted in the western Gulf from 21N to 24N between 95W and 97W,=20
and also south of 24N between 85W and 89W. Gentle to moderate=20
west to northwest winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the east-=20
central Gulf. Light to gentle north to northeast winds and seas of
1 to 3 ft are over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will weaken further today=20
as it drifts southeastward today. The strong cold front is=20
expected to overtake the weak front this afternoon as it sweeps=20 southeastward across the basin through Tue. This will lead to=20
fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building seas in the=20
wake of this front. The fresh to near gale-force northwest to=20
north winds behind the front will begin to slowly diminish this=20
afternoon, and continue into Wed as the front stalls across the=20
entrance to the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida, and high=20
pressure settles across the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds=20
and slight seas will persist late Wed through Fri night.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic ridging near 25N continues to influence the gradient
across the basin. It is presently allowing for moderate to fresh=20
trade winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern and=20
central sections of the basin while light to gentle winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the sea.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted west of about 75W.

For the forecast, weak ridging north of the basin near 25N will=20
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas east of=20
about 84W through the period, except trades will increase to fresh
to strong speeds across the central Caribbean and the eastern=20
part of the southwestern Caribbean starting late Tue night as high
pressure that builds over the Gulf of America leads to a=20
tightening of the gradient, and while at the same time a weakening
cold front approaches the northwestern Caribbean on Tue stalls=20
from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula through Wed night=20
before dissipating. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to=20
moderate seas will prevail W of 84W. Otherwise, long- period=20
northeast to east swell will support rough seas across the=20
Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser Antilles through Fri=20
night.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N73W to 29N78W, then=20
becomes a warm front to a 1012 mb low near 28N80W. Fresh to=20
locally strong southwest winds and moderate to rough seas are east
of the front to near 70W from 26N to 30N. Scattered to numerous=20
showers and thunderstorms are E of the front to near 72W from=20
27N to 31N. Overnight scatterometer satellite data generally=20
depicts fresh to strong southwest to west winds north of 27N=20
between 24W and 49W. Seas are 10 to 13 ft with these winds.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 7 to 9 ft are seen from 20N=20
to 25N. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 35W and=20
the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds=20
with 6 to 9 ft seas are noted. Gentle to moderate mostly southerly=20
winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the rest of the=20
basin west.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to locally strong winds=20
and moderate to rough seas that are east of the front to will=20
gradually shift eastward through late Tue and expand in coverage
as a stronger cold front overtakes the weak cold front. The=20
southwest winds are expected to reach near gale force. The cold=20
front will reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits=20
of Florida Tue afternoon, then gradually weaken and stall along=20
about 26N early Wed as low pressure north of the forecast waters=20
moves northeastward well to the northeast of the area. A weakening
cold front is expected to move across the waters north and=20
northeast of the Bahamas from late Wed through Fri. Otherwise,=20
large north swell will move into the regional waters Tue through=20
Wed, then subside over the SE zones Fri.

$$
Aguirre

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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787=20
AXNT20 KNHC 081042
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Dec 08 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front that moved
into western portion of the Gulf last night presently extends
along a position from near Mobile, Alabama southwestward to=20
28N92W and to NE Mexico. The front will sweep across the rest=20
of the basin through Tue, perhaps stalling from near western
Cuba and the Straits of Florida by Tue evening. Fresh to strong
northwest to north winds and rough seas are expected to follow=20
behind the front across the western and north- central Gulf. These
winds will reach near-gale to gale-force off Veracruz this=20
afternoon into this evening along with seas building to around=20
12 ft (4 M). Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish=20
Tue into Wed as the front stalls from near western Cuba and the=20
Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue evening, and as
high pressure settles across the central Gulf.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!7P2RukrwyRhiIb_XgFgAkvCE3JAEtT5zGhl_PYj8PXzLDCRFgtt4OK7wrc0DSiBdo= 7jaiu0GM6TFxf3jnNsYIKAeou4$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!7P2RukrwyRhiIb_XgFgAkvCE3JAEtT5zGhl_PYj8PXzLDCRFgtt4OK7wrc0DSiBdo= 7jaiu0GM6TFxf3jnNsYTHIW2o0$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of=20
southern Sierra Leone to 07N12W, and extends southwestward to=20
06N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N24W to 04N34W to=20
05N39W and to near 05N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong=20
convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 24W-26W,
and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-34W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between=20
24W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
gale conditions expected offshore of Veracruz, Mexico beginning
this afternoon.

A weak cold front extends from southwest Florida to 26N86W, where
it begins to dissipate to near 25N91W. Isolated showers and=20
thunderstorms moving eastward are along the front E of 85W. To
the W of the front, a strong cold front is analyzed from near=20
near Mobile, Alabama southwestward to 28N92W and to NE Mexico.=20
Fresh to near gale northerly winds as seen in an overnight=20
scatterometer satellite data pass are behind the second cold front
across the NW Gulf. Seas are in the range of 7 to 10 ft over the=20
NW Gulf west of 94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms=20
are noted in the western Gulf from 21N to 24N between 95W and 97W,=20
and also south of 24N between 85W and 89W. Gentle to moderate=20
west to northwest winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the east-=20
central Gulf. Light to gentle north to northeast winds and seas of
1 to 3 ft are over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will weaken further today=20
as it drifts southeastward today. The strong cold front is=20
expected to overtake the weak front this afternoon as it sweeps=20 southeastward across the basin through Tue. This will lead to=20
fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building seas in the=20
wake of this front. The fresh to near gale-force northwest to=20
north winds behind the front will begin to slowly diminish this=20
afternoon, and continue into Wed as the front stalls across the=20
entrance to the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida, and high=20
pressure settles across the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds=20
and slight seas will persist late Wed through Fri night.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic ridging near 25N continues to influence the gradient
across the basin. It is presently allowing for moderate to fresh=20
trade winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern and=20
central sections of the basin while light to gentle winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the sea.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted west of about 75W.

For the forecast, weak ridging north of the basin near 25N will=20
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas east of=20
about 84W through the period, except trades will increase to fresh
to strong speeds across the central Caribbean and the eastern=20
part of the southwestern Caribbean starting late Tue night as high
pressure that builds over the Gulf of America leads to a=20
tightening of the gradient, and while at the same time a weakening
cold front approaches the northwestern Caribbean on Tue stalls=20
from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula through Wed night=20
before dissipating. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to=20
moderate seas will prevail W of 84W. Otherwise, long- period=20
northeast to east swell will support rough seas across the=20
Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser Antilles through Fri=20
night.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N73W to 29N78W, then=20
becomes a warm front to a 1012 mb low near 28N80W. Fresh to=20
locally strong southwest winds and moderate to rough seas are east
of the front to near 70W from 26N to 30N. Scattered to numerous=20
showers and thunderstorms are E of the front to near 72W from=20
27N to 31N. Overnight scatterometer satellite data generally=20
depicts fresh to strong southwest to west winds north of 27N=20
between 24W and 49W. Seas are 10 to 13 ft with these winds.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 7 to 9 ft are seen from 20N=20
to 25N. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 35W and=20
the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds=20
with 6 to 9 ft seas are noted. Gentle to moderate mostly southerly=20
winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the rest of the=20
basin west.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to locally strong winds=20
and moderate to rough seas that are east of the front to will=20
gradually shift eastward through late Tue and expand in coverage
as a stronger cold front overtakes the weak cold front. The=20
southwest winds are expected to reach near gale force. The cold=20
front will reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits=20
of Florida Tue afternoon, then gradually weaken and stall along=20
about 26N early Wed as low pressure north of the forecast waters=20
moves northeastward well to the northeast of the area. A weakening
cold front is expected to move across the waters north and=20
northeast of the Bahamas from late Wed through Fri. Otherwise,=20
large north swell will move into the regional waters Tue through=20
Wed, then subside over the SE zones Fri.

$$
Aguirre

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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296=20
AXNT20 KNHC 081745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Dec 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front that moved
into western portion of the Gulf last night presently extends
along a position from just south of Tallahassee, FL southwestward
to near 20N96W and then inland over Mexico. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms follow the front near and just offshore of
the Mexican coast. The front will sweep southeastward across the=20
rest of the basin through Tue, perhaps stalling from near western=20
Cuba and the Straits of Florida by Tue evening. Fresh to strong=20
northwest to north winds and rough seas are expected to follow=20
behind the front across the western and northern Gulf. These=20
winds will reach near-gale to gale-force off Veracruz this=20
afternoon into this evening along with seas building to around 12=20
ft (4 M). A 1604 UTC scatterometer pass indicated gale-force winds
in convection immediately following the cold front. Seas following
the cold front are currently analyzed at 5-8 ft. Afterward, winds
and seas will gradually diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls
from near western Cuba and the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan=20
Peninsula by Tue evening, and as high pressure settles across the=20
central Gulf.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!__D4TKPlrNRphNUkW1yzRZsJnCI_ZNUlZ1NKxF4o6TjIDhSCWn5nKaq2AIUGAZv8R= TiRCjOmroeOwYFcnyb8Tr8msIc$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!__D4TKPlrNRphNUkW1yzRZsJnCI_ZNUlZ1NKxF4o6TjIDhSCWn5nKaq2AIUGAZv8R= TiRCjOmroeOwYFcnyb89K-o0Vk$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of=20
southern Sierra Leone and extends to near 05N18W. The ITCZ then
continues from 05N18W to 01.5N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen S of 07N between 23W and 37W, with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms seen along these features and E of 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a
cold front that will bring gale conditions to areas offshore of=20
Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon.

For the remainder of the Gulf ahead of the cold front, a surface
trough is analyzed from the eastern Bay of Campeche into the SE
Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity of=20
the trough. Another cold front segment extends from near Sarasota,
FL to near 25N87W, with scattered showers in the area. Otherwise,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail away from the
cold front.=20

For the forecast, a strong cold front extending from the Florida=20
Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche will progress=20
southeastward over the basin early this week. Gale force winds and
localized very rough seas are expected offshore of Veracruz this=20
afternoon and evening, with strong winds continuing in this region
into early Tue. Widespread strong N winds and rough seas will=20
occur in the wake of the front over the central and western Gulf=20
into early Tue, with mainly fresh winds and moderate seas expected
in the eastern basin. Winds and seas will diminish from northwest
to southeast through Tue as the front stalls near the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and eventually dissipates around midweek. Looking ahead,
weak high pressure will build over the basin later this week,=20
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic ridging continues to influence the pressure gradient=20
across the basin. It is presently allowing for moderate to fresh=20
trade winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern and=20
central sections of the basin while light to gentle winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and=20
moderate seas are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean=20
through Tue as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic.=20
Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela and=20
offshore of northern Colombia by Tue night, and locally rough seas
may develop near and to the west of these winds. An increasing=20
pressure gradient between a weakening cold front approaching the=20 northwestern Caribbean and low pressure in the south-central basin
will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the=20
central Caribbean for mid to late week. Elsewhere, a persistent E=20
swell will continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic waters
and passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before seas=20
slightly subside. A new mixed N and E swell will renew rough seas=20
over this region late Wed through the rest of the week.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A complex frontal boundary in the W Atlantic is analyzed from
31N36W along 30/31N to a 1010 mb low pres near 30N72W, with the
boundary then extending southwestward to the FL coast near Port
St. Lucie. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of this
front generally N of 27N and W of 69W. A trough runs from north to
south through another frontal low near 28N78W, and is also kicking
off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Bahamas.
A scatterometer pass from 1504 UTC indicated strong to near gale
force SW winds ahead of the front generally N of 26N and W of 70W.
Gale-force winds are occurring in the pre-frontal convection. To=20
the north, Another weak cold front reaches from 31N77W to near=20
Daytona Beach, FL. Moderate to fresh NW winds are following this
front. In the East Atlantic, a pre- frontal trough runs from=20
30N35W to 26N47W, with scattered showers and isolated=20
thunderstorms seen along and ahead of this trough out to about=20
28W. Marine conditions in this region, confirmed by scatterometer
and altimeter data, are characterized by fresh to strong SW winds
and seas of 12-16 ft in NW swell N of 26N between 20W and 45W.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, surface ridging prevails. Fresh to
strong trades and 6-9 ft seas are prevalent across much of the
Atlantic S of 20N. From 20N to 26N and E of 45W, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 6-10 ft in NW swell prevail. For the
remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from=20
30.5N72.5W to central Florida will progress eastward early this=20
week, and fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front
north of 27N through Tue. Rough seas in W swell will develop in=20
this region east of 70W today, and expand eastward into the=20
central Atlantic by tonight. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be=20
possible north of 30N and east of 62W by Tue morning. A second,=20
stronger cold front pushing off the coast of the southeastern=20
United States will rapidly progress eastward through midweek, and=20
widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds are expected in the wake=20
of the front, generally north of 27N and west of 70W by late=20
tonight, with these winds also expanding eastward toward the=20
central Atlantic through Tue. A new N swell will support rough=20
seas over the northwest tropical Atlantic by late tonight, before=20
merging with the aforementioned rough seas in the central basin on
Tue. Winds will diminish from west to east Tue into early Wed,=20
with rough seas slowly subsiding through late week. Looking ahead,
fresh to locally strong SW winds may develop off the coast of=20
Florida mid to late week as a low pressure system moves off the=20
east coast of the U.S.=20

$$=20
Adams

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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333=20
AXNT20 KNHC 081745
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Dec 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front that moved
into western portion of the Gulf last night presently extends
along a position from just south of Tallahassee, FL southwestward
to near 20N96W and then inland over Mexico. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms follow the front near and just offshore of
the Mexican coast. The front will sweep southeastward across the=20
rest of the basin through Tue, perhaps stalling from near western=20
Cuba and the Straits of Florida by Tue evening. Fresh to strong=20
northwest to north winds and rough seas are expected to follow=20
behind the front across the western and northern Gulf. These=20
winds will reach near-gale to gale-force off Veracruz this=20
afternoon into this evening along with seas building to around 12=20
ft (4 M). A 1604 UTC scatterometer pass indicated gale-force winds
in convection immediately following the cold front. Seas following
the cold front are currently analyzed at 5-8 ft. Afterward, winds
and seas will gradually diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls
from near western Cuba and the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan=20
Peninsula by Tue evening, and as high pressure settles across the=20
central Gulf.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!9XhIgjsEJJVfNX22TNBOpkIdtlKQYbAD59kUCKYU5ws1yYYGE2CQvRr67xgsvfnLE= UAUbP2V-jAmu-fqO9dpBJapx2M$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!9XhIgjsEJJVfNX22TNBOpkIdtlKQYbAD59kUCKYU5ws1yYYGE2CQvRr67xgsvfnLE= UAUbP2V-jAmu-fqO9dpTHv9F34$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of=20
southern Sierra Leone and extends to near 05N18W. The ITCZ then
continues from 05N18W to 01.5N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen S of 07N between 23W and 37W, with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms seen along these features and E of 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a
cold front that will bring gale conditions to areas offshore of=20
Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon.

For the remainder of the Gulf ahead of the cold front, a surface
trough is analyzed from the eastern Bay of Campeche into the SE
Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity of=20
the trough. Another cold front segment extends from near Sarasota,
FL to near 25N87W, with scattered showers in the area. Otherwise,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail away from the
cold front.=20

For the forecast, a strong cold front extending from the Florida=20
Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche will progress=20
southeastward over the basin early this week. Gale force winds and
localized very rough seas are expected offshore of Veracruz this=20
afternoon and evening, with strong winds continuing in this region
into early Tue. Widespread strong N winds and rough seas will=20
occur in the wake of the front over the central and western Gulf=20
into early Tue, with mainly fresh winds and moderate seas expected
in the eastern basin. Winds and seas will diminish from northwest
to southeast through Tue as the front stalls near the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and eventually dissipates around midweek. Looking ahead,
weak high pressure will build over the basin later this week,=20
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic ridging continues to influence the pressure gradient=20
across the basin. It is presently allowing for moderate to fresh=20
trade winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern and=20
central sections of the basin while light to gentle winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and=20
moderate seas are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean=20
through Tue as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic.=20
Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela and=20
offshore of northern Colombia by Tue night, and locally rough seas
may develop near and to the west of these winds. An increasing=20
pressure gradient between a weakening cold front approaching the=20 northwestern Caribbean and low pressure in the south-central basin
will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the=20
central Caribbean for mid to late week. Elsewhere, a persistent E=20
swell will continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic waters
and passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before seas=20
slightly subside. A new mixed N and E swell will renew rough seas=20
over this region late Wed through the rest of the week.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A complex frontal boundary in the W Atlantic is analyzed from
31N36W along 30/31N to a 1010 mb low pres near 30N72W, with the
boundary then extending southwestward to the FL coast near Port
St. Lucie. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of this
front generally N of 27N and W of 69W. A trough runs from north to
south through another frontal low near 28N78W, and is also kicking
off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Bahamas.
A scatterometer pass from 1504 UTC indicated strong to near gale
force SW winds ahead of the front generally N of 26N and W of 70W.
Gale-force winds are occurring in the pre-frontal convection. To=20
the north, Another weak cold front reaches from 31N77W to near=20
Daytona Beach, FL. Moderate to fresh NW winds are following this
front. In the East Atlantic, a pre- frontal trough runs from=20
30N35W to 26N47W, with scattered showers and isolated=20
thunderstorms seen along and ahead of this trough out to about=20
28W. Marine conditions in this region, confirmed by scatterometer
and altimeter data, are characterized by fresh to strong SW winds
and seas of 12-16 ft in NW swell N of 26N between 20W and 45W.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, surface ridging prevails. Fresh to
strong trades and 6-9 ft seas are prevalent across much of the
Atlantic S of 20N. From 20N to 26N and E of 45W, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 6-10 ft in NW swell prevail. For the
remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from=20
30.5N72.5W to central Florida will progress eastward early this=20
week, and fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front
north of 27N through Tue. Rough seas in W swell will develop in=20
this region east of 70W today, and expand eastward into the=20
central Atlantic by tonight. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be=20
possible north of 30N and east of 62W by Tue morning. A second,=20
stronger cold front pushing off the coast of the southeastern=20
United States will rapidly progress eastward through midweek, and=20
widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds are expected in the wake=20
of the front, generally north of 27N and west of 70W by late=20
tonight, with these winds also expanding eastward toward the=20
central Atlantic through Tue. A new N swell will support rough=20
seas over the northwest tropical Atlantic by late tonight, before=20
merging with the aforementioned rough seas in the central basin on
Tue. Winds will diminish from west to east Tue into early Wed,=20
with rough seas slowly subsiding through late week. Looking ahead,
fresh to locally strong SW winds may develop off the coast of=20
Florida mid to late week as a low pressure system moves off the=20
east coast of the U.S.=20

$$=20
Adams

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605=20
AXNT20 KNHC 082104
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Dec 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from central=20
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche. Near gale to gale force
winds prevail over the waters S of 22N and west of the front,
where seas are in the 8-10 ft range. The front will continue to
shift SE tonight, with winds diminishing below gale force.=20

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!6WCPIoORkDQJmSVU2PVqeBTGmB4oj96LYD09OMYl2_DZKpBunKLPBwjY2MigDc_2E= 7tYFRuMhsecLM_IWRO3w-A6bAI$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!6WCPIoORkDQJmSVU2PVqeBTGmB4oj96LYD09OMYl2_DZKpBunKLPBwjY2MigDc_2E= 7tYFRuMhsecLM_IWRO34LZdZ14$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of=20
Africa near 07.5N12.5W and extends to near 05N18W. The ITCZ then=20
continues from 05N18W to 02N31W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 25W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a gale
warning off Veracruz, Mexico.=20

A cold front extends from central Florida to the central Bay of=20
Campeche. Aside from gale conditions off Veracruz, Mexico, fresh
to strong winds prevail N of the front, with gentle to moderate
winds SE of the front. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range N of the=20
front, and 2-4 ft SE of the front.=20

For the forecast, the front will progress southeastward over the=20
basin early this week. Gale force winds and localized very rough=20
seas are expected offshore of Veracruz through this evening, with=20
strong winds continuing in this region into Tue morning.=20
Widespread fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will occur in=20
the wake of the front over the central and western Gulf through=20
late tonight, with mainly fresh winds and moderate seas expected=20
in the eastern basin. Winds and seas will diminish from northwest=20
to southeast through Tue as the front stalls near the Yucatan=20
Peninsula and eventually dissipates around midweek. Weak high=20
pressure will build over the basin later this week, supporting=20
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over the central and
eastern Caribbean, with gentle winds over the western Caribbean.
Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the central and eastern
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean.=20

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and=20
moderate seas are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean=20
through Tue as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic.=20
Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela and=20
offshore of northern Colombia by Tue night, and locally rough seas
may develop near and to the west of these winds. An increasing=20
pressure gradient between a weakening cold front approaching the=20 northwestern Caribbean and low pressure in the south-central basin
will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the=20
central Caribbean for mid to late week. Winds may approach near-=20
gale force offshore of Colombia late Wed. Elsewhere, a persistent=20
E swell will continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic=20
waters and passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before=20
seas slightly subside. A new mixed N and E swell will renew rough=20
seas over this region late Wed through the rest of the week.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from southwest of Bermuda to just northeast=20
of the Bahamas. A second, stronger cold front extends from 31N75W
to central Florida. Fresh to near-gale force winds prevail N of
27N and east of the first front to 63W, with moderate to fresh=20
winds W of the front. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range over these
waters.=20

High pressure prevails across the remainder of the Atlantic
discussion waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near
23N46W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing over much of the
remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters. Seas of 12 to 15 ft
are noted over the waters N of 28N between 20W and 45W, with seas
generally in the 7-11 ft range N of 20N and E of 55W. S of 20N,
seas are in the 5-8 ft range. Elsewhere, seas of 5-6 ft are=20
noted.

For the forecast west of 55W, the first front will progress=20
eastward early this week, and fresh to strong SW winds are=20
expected ahead of the front north of 27N through Tue. Rough seas=20
in W swell will east of 73W will expand eastward into the central=20
Atlantic by tonight. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible=20
north of 30N and east of 64W by Tue morning. The second front=20
will rapidly progress eastward through midweek, and widespread=20
fresh to strong N to NW winds are expected in the wake of the=20
front, generally north of 27N and west of 65W by late tonight,=20
with these winds also expanding eastward toward the central=20
Atlantic through Tue. A new N swell will support rough seas over=20
the northwest tropical Atlantic by late tonight, before merging=20
with the aforementioned rough seas in the central basin on Tue.=20
Winds will diminish from west to east through Tue night, with=20
rough seas slowly subsiding through late week. Looking ahead,=20
fresh to locally strong SW winds and rough seas may develop off=20
the coast of Florida mid to late week as a low pressure system=20
moves off the east coast of the U.S.

$$
AL

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861=20
AXNT20 KNHC 090600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Dec 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends southwestward=20
from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula and southern
Mexico. Near-gale to gale force northerly winds behind this front
near Veracruz, Mexico will gradually decrease to between fresh=20
and strong after midnight tonight. Seas at 10 to 12 ft will also
subside and become 7 to 9 ft by Tue afternoon.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4GNkZy_QsQ1L_ChGBTE1hU4Ay14bxKiPUuGAZUKhouEbPGVV1K-xgW76KXu-PPxJ3= HmhyCaNm-amnx8hGPVyezHiRp0$ and https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4GNkZy_QsQ1L_ChGBTE1hU4Ay14bxKiPUuGAZUKhouEbPGVV1K-xgW76KXu-PPxJ3= HmhyCaNm-amnx8hGPVyrKoSEPs$ for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, then extends southwestward to 04N20W.=20
An ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N30W to 02N46W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 00N to 03N=20
between 32W and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning.=20

A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Straits to=20
the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Mexico. Widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and up to 50 nm
south of the front. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong
northerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the
southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Gentle N
to NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate N to NE swell are noted
across the Florida Straits and near the Texas coast. Moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from=20
the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Tue. Fresh to=20
strong N to NE winds outside the Gale Warning area behind the=20
front will diminish to between moderate and fresh over the
southeastern and south-central Gulf on Tue, with light to gentle=20
winds expected over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas will also=20
subside on Tue as the front stalls near the Yucatan Peninsula and=20
eventually dissipates around midweek. Looking ahead, weak high=20
pressure will build over the basin later this week, supporting=20
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel and near western Cuba. A=20
1021 mb high at the central Atlantic near 24N45W sustains a fair=20
trade- wind regime across much of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to=20
fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the south-central=20
basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas stay at the=20
northwestern basin and near Costa Rica and Panama, including the=20
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4=20
to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are expected over the central and eastern basin=20
through Tue as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic.=20
Winds may pulse to strong in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore=20
of northern Colombia by Tue night, and locally rough seas may=20
develop near and to the west of these winds. A tightening pressure
gradient between a weakening cold front approaching the=20
northwestern basin and low pressure in the south-central basin=20
will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the=20
central basin beginning on Wed and into the upcoming weekend.=20
Winds may approach near gale-force offshore of Colombia late Wed.=20
Elsewhere, a persistent E swell will continue to lead to rough=20
seas over the Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser Antilles=20
into early Wed before seas slightly subside. New mixed N and E
swell is expected to bring rough seas over these same waters=20
starting late Wed night.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front runs southwestward from a 1006 mb low=20
south of Bermuda across 31N65W to the central Bahamas. Widely
scattered moderate convection is evident near and up 40 nm south=20
of the boundary. Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered
moderate convection from 08N to 10N between 32W and 38W. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.=20

Fresh to strong SW to NW winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are seen
near and behind both cold fronts, north of 27N between 52W and=20
the northeastern Florida/southern Georgia coast. Otherwise, a=20
1021 mb high near 24N45W is dominating the Atlantic north of 23N=20
between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast with gentle to=20
moderate clockwise winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate to=20
large northerly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 23N=20
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh with=20
locally strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are present. For=20
the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate=20
southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found.

For the forecast west of 35W, the cold front will continue=20
eastward through late Tue night, preceded by fresh to strong=20
SW winds north of 27N through Tue. Rough seas in W swell east of=20
73W will continue to expand toward the central Atlantic into early
Tue as very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible north of 30N=20
and east of 64W by Tue morning. A second and stronger cold front=20
extending from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida=20
will quickly shift eastward through Tue night overtaking the first
front. The front will be followed by fresh to strong NW winds,=20
north of about 26N and west of 68W into late tonight. A new set of
N swell will support rough seas over the northwest tropical=20
Atlantic by late tonight, before merging with the aforementioned=20
rough seas in the central Atlantic on Tue. Winds will diminish=20
from west to east through Tue night, with rough seas slowly=20
subsiding through late week. Looking ahead, fresh to locally=20
strong SW winds and rough seas may develop offshore northern=20
FLorida starting Wed as a low pressure system moves off the east=20
coast of the U.S.

$$

Chan

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177
AXNT20 KNHC 091025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Dec 09 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal
border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, and continues southwestward
to 05N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to near
03N46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm south
of the ITCZ between 33W and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida southwestward to
the Yucatan Peninsula and to extreme southern Mexico. High
pressure is building across the area behind the front. Fresh to
strong winds offshore Veracruz and over the far SW Gulf will
diminish to fresh speeds by early this afternoon. Seas of 8 to 10
ft with these winds will subside to 6 to 8 ft in north swell by
early in the afternoon. Mostly fresh north to northeast winds are
elsewhere southeast of a line from 29N91W to 26N95W and to 20N96W.
Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall today
from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. The fresh
north to northeast will diminish late tonight into early on Wed as
the front weakens further, and at which time light to gentle
winds are expected over most of the basin. Seas throughout will
subside today. Weak high pressure will slide eastward across the
northern Gulf later this week in the wake of a cold front that
will be clipping the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds will be
near the high while gentle to moderate winds will be elsewhere
over the Gulf. Slight seas are expected for the remainder of the
period after today.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough is analyzed from near western Cuba to 20N85W and to
inland central Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted west and northwest of the trough to the
Yucatan Channel and near western Cuba. The pressure gradient
between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower
pressures in northern south America and in the south-central and
southwestern Caribbean is generally allowing for moderate to fresh
trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft to exist east of about 79W.
Slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft are south of 15N between 64W and
68W. Light to gentle winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over
the northwest portion of the basin and near Costa Rica and Panama,
including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trade winds
with seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the sea.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate
seas over the central and eastern Caribbean will continue today
as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic. Winds will
begin to pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela and
offshore of northern Colombia starting this evening. Locally rough
seas may develop near and to the west of these winds. A
tightening pressure gradient between a weakening cold front
approaching the northwestern Caribbean and low pressure in the
south-central basin will support fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas in the central Caribbean beginning on Wed and into the
upcoming weekend. Winds may approach near gale- force offshore of
Colombia late Wed. Elsewhere, a persistent east swell will
continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic waters and
passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before seas
slightly subside. New mixed north and east swell is expected to
bring rough seas over these same waters starting late Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends southwestward from a 1004 mb low north
of the area near 33N61W to 31N64W to 26N71W and to 25N76W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of the front to
near 60W and north of 28N. A stronger cold front extends from
near 31N69W to 27N75W to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of
Florida. Fresh to strong southwest winds that shifit to northwest
in direction are seen near and behind both cold fronts, north of
about 27N between 51W and the northeastern Florida/southern
Georgia coast. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these winds. Otherwise, a
1020 mb high center near 25N46W is dominating the Atlantic north
of 23N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast, with
gentle to moderate clockwise winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in
moderate to large northerly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from
07N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to
fresh, to at times, locally strong trade winds and seas of 6 to 9
ft seas are present. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft seas are present over the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast, rough seas in west swell east of 68W will be
reinforced by additional large northwest swell today through late
tonight following in behind a stronger cold front that will
quickly move eastward overtaking the aforementioned cold front
tonight. This next front is followed today by fresh to strong
northwest winds north of about 28N between 67W and 80W. By late
this afternoon these winds are expected to be north of 29N between
60W and 66W before shifting northeast of the area late tonight as
the front begins to stall. The northwest swell gradually subside
Wed and Wed night as it shifts to the NE forecast waters. At that
same time rough seas in long period east swell will begin to move
into the southeast forecast waters and linger through the
remainder of the forecast period. Looking ahead, fresh to locally
strong southwest winds and rough seas may develop offshore
northern Florida starting Wed as a low pressure system moves off
the east coast of the U.S. Its associated cold front should move
across the waters east of Florida from Wed night through the end
of the weak as it weakens, and eventually stalling over the NE
offshore zones Sat and dissipate Sat night. Fresh west to
northwest winds will follow the front through late Thu.

$$
Aguirre

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076
AXNT20 KNHC 091030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Dec 09 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal
border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, and continues southwestward
to 05N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to near
03N46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm south
of the ITCZ between 33W and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida southwestward to
the Yucatan Peninsula and to extreme southern Mexico. High
pressure is building across the area behind the front. Fresh to
strong winds offshore Veracruz and over the far SW Gulf will
diminish to fresh speeds by early this afternoon. Seas of 8 to 10
ft with these winds will subside to 6 to 8 ft in north swell by
early in the afternoon. Mostly fresh north to northeast winds are
elsewhere southeast of a line from 29N91W to 26N95W and to 20N96W.
Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall today
from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. The fresh
north to northeast will diminish late tonight into early on Wed as
the front weakens further, and at which time light to gentle
winds are expected over most of the basin. Seas throughout will
subside today. Weak high pressure will slide eastward across the
northern Gulf later this week in the wake of a cold front that
will be clipping the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds will be
near the high while gentle to moderate winds will be elsewhere
over the Gulf. Slight seas are expected for the remainder of the
period after today.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough is analyzed from near western Cuba to 20N85W and to
inland central Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted west and northwest of the trough to the
Yucatan Channel and near western Cuba. The pressure gradient
between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower
pressures in northern south America and in the south-central and
southwestern Caribbean is generally allowing for moderate to fresh
trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft to exist east of about 79W.
Slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft are south of 15N between 64W and
68W. Light to gentle winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over
the northwest portion of the basin and near Costa Rica and Panama,
including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trade winds
with seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the sea.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate
seas over the central and eastern Caribbean will continue today
as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic. Winds will
begin to pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela and
offshore of northern Colombia starting this evening. Locally rough
seas may develop near and to the west of these winds. A
tightening pressure gradient between a weakening cold front
approaching the northwestern Caribbean and low pressure in the
south-central basin will support fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas in the central Caribbean beginning on Wed and into the
upcoming weekend. Winds may approach near gale- force offshore of
Colombia late Wed. Elsewhere, a persistent east swell will
continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic waters and
passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before seas
slightly subside. New mixed north and east swell is expected to
bring rough seas over these same waters starting late Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends southwestward from a 1004 mb low north
of the area near 33N61W to 31N64W to 26N71W and to 25N76W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of the front to
near 60W and north of 28N. A stronger cold front extends from
near 31N69W to 27N75W to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of
Florida. Fresh to strong southwest winds are ahead of both fronts
while similar wind speeds from the northwest in direction are
behind the stronger front. These winds are occurring roughly north
of about 27N between 51W and the northeastern Florida/southern
Georgia coast. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these winds. Otherwise, a
1020 mb high center near 25N46W is dominating the Atlantic north of
23N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast, with gentle
to moderate clockwise winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate to
large northerly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 23N
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh, to at times,
locally strong trade winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft seas are present.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft seas are
present over the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast, rough seas in west swell east of 68W will be
reinforced by additional large northwest swell today through late
tonight following in behind a stronger cold front that will
quickly move eastward overtaking the aforementioned cold front
tonight. This next front is followed today by fresh to strong
northwest winds north of about 28N between 67W and 80W. By late
this afternoon these winds are expected to be north of 29N between
60W and 66W before shifting northeast of the area late tonight as
the front begins to stall. The northwest swell gradually subside
Wed and Wed night as it shifts to the NE forecast waters. At that
same time rough seas in long period east swell will begin to move
into the southeast forecast waters and linger through the
remainder of the forecast period. Looking ahead, fresh to locally
strong southwest winds and rough seas may develop offshore
northern Florida starting Wed as a low pressure system moves off
the east coast of the U.S. Its associated cold front should move
across the waters east of Florida from Wed night through the end
of the weak as it weakens, and eventually stalling over the NE
offshore zones Sat and dissipate Sat night. Fresh west to
northwest winds will follow the front through late Thu.

$$
Aguirre

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798
AXNT20 KNHC 091641
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Dec 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1641 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, and
continues southwestward to 05.5N17.5W, where it transitions to
the ITCZ to 01N32W to near 02N49W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 03S to 02N between 28.5W and 36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida
southwestward to the Yucatan Peninsula and to extreme southern
Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure is building across the area
behind the front. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Bay
of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf with seas of 8 to 10 ft.
For the rest of the Gulf, gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail
with light to moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds and rough seas will continue in
the Bay of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf through this
evening, in the wake of a front that has stalled over the
northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to
NW winds and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin
Wed afternoon ahead of a cold front moving through the southern
United States. The front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by
Thu morning, with winds turning to the N and weakening in the wake
of the front. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas
are expected over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as
weak high pressure prevails over the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is analyzed from near western Cuba to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is found along
the stationary front. The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in northern
South America and in the south-central and southwestern Caribbean
generally allows for moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft to exist east of about 79W. Light to gentle winds, along
with seas of 2 to 5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds and moderate
seas will prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean today.
Widespread fresh trades and rough seas are expected to develop
over this region on Wed as a tightening pressure gradient develops
between the Colombian low, a stalling front in the northwest
basin and building high pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds
will pulse to strong speeds offshore of northern Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela nightly through this weekend, and winds may
reach near-gale force at times. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
trades will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the
passages into this weekend. Locally rough seas in E swell in this
region will subside through today, with a new E swell supporting
rough seas Wed through this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is dissipating. This front extends
southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of the area near 34.5N58W
to 31N59W to 27N69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
depicted along the dissipating front. A stronger cold front
extends from near 31N63W to 26N74W, where it becomes stationary to
the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to
strong southwest winds are ahead of both fronts, while similar
wind speeds from the northwest are behind the stronger front.
These winds are occurring roughly north of about 27N between 31W
and 70W. In addition, an area of near-gale force SW winds is found
north of 30N between 53W and 61W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with these
winds. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high center near 25N41W is dominating
the Atlantic north of 23N between 35W and the Greater Antilles,
with gentle to moderate clockwise winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft in
moderate to large northerly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from
07N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh
trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft seas are present. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft seas are present
over the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from south of Bermuda
through the central Bahamas will progress eastward through the
central Atlantic this week. Strong to locally near-gale force SW
winds and rough seas will occur north of 27N and east of 65W ahead
of the cold front through late tonight, with widespread fresh to
strong W to NW winds expected in the wake of the front north of
29N and east of 70W. Winds will subside from west to east tonight
into early Wed. NW swell associated with this front will expand
southeastward over the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Wed,
supporting rough seas north of 26N by late tonight, and north of
25N by Wed afternoon. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible
north of 30N and east of 70W today into Wed afternoon. Seas will
slowly subside from west to east through late week. Looking ahead,
fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas may develop offshore
northern Florida by Wed evening, ahead of a cold front moving over
the southern United States. The cold front is slated to push
offshore early Thu, with fresh NW winds and rough seas expected in
the wake of the front.

$$
KRV

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898
AXNT20 KNHC 091642
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Dec 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1641 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, and
continues southwestward to 05.5N17.5W, where it transitions to
the ITCZ to 01N32W to near 02N49W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 03S to 02N between 28.5W and 36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida
southwestward to the Yucatan Peninsula and to extreme southern
Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure is building across the area
behind the front. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Bay
of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf with seas of 8 to 10 ft.
For the rest of the Gulf, gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail
with light to moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds and rough seas will continue in
the Bay of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf through this
evening, in the wake of a front that has stalled over the
northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to
NW winds and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin
Wed afternoon ahead of a cold front moving through the southern
United States. The front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by
Thu morning, with winds turning to the N and weakening in the wake
of the front. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas
are expected over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as
weak high pressure prevails over the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is analyzed from near western Cuba to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is found along
the stationary front. The pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in northern
South America and in the south-central and southwestern Caribbean
generally allows for moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft to exist east of about 79W. Light to gentle winds, along
with seas of 2 to 5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds and moderate
seas will prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean today.
Widespread fresh trades and rough seas are expected to develop
over this region on Wed as a tightening pressure gradient develops
between the Colombian low, a stalling front in the northwest
basin and building high pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds
will pulse to strong speeds offshore of northern Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela nightly through this weekend, and winds may
reach near-gale force at times. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
trades will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the
passages into this weekend. Locally rough seas in E swell in this
region will subside through today, with a new E swell supporting
rough seas Wed through this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is dissipating. This front extends
southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of the area near 34.5N58W
to 31N59W to 27N69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
depicted along the dissipating front. A stronger cold front
extends from near 31N63W to 26N74W, where it becomes stationary to
the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to
strong southwest winds are ahead of both fronts, while similar
wind speeds from the northwest are behind the stronger front.
These winds are occurring roughly north of about 27N between 31W
and 70W. In addition, an area of near-gale force SW winds is found
north of 30N between 53W and 61W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with these
winds. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high center near 25N41W is dominating
the Atlantic north of 23N between 35W and the Greater Antilles,
with gentle to moderate clockwise winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft in
moderate to large northerly swells. For the tropical Atlantic from
07N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh
trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft seas are present. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft seas are present
over the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from south of Bermuda
through the central Bahamas will progress eastward through the
central Atlantic this week. Strong to locally near-gale force SW
winds and rough seas will occur north of 27N and east of 65W ahead
of the cold front through late tonight, with widespread fresh to
strong W to NW winds expected in the wake of the front north of
29N and east of 70W. Winds will subside from west to east tonight
into early Wed. NW swell associated with this front will expand
southeastward over the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Wed,
supporting rough seas north of 26N by late tonight, and north of
25N by Wed afternoon. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible
north of 30N and east of 70W today into Wed afternoon. Seas will
slowly subside from west to east through late week. Looking ahead,
fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas may develop offshore
northern Florida by Wed evening, ahead of a cold front moving over
the southern United States. The cold front is slated to push
offshore early Thu, with fresh NW winds and rough seas expected in
the wake of the front.

$$
KRV

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171
AXNT20 KNHC 092047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W and continues
southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 02N37W
to near 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N
to 10N between 26W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Fresh to locally
strong winds are over the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are SE
of a line from N Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the SE
Gulf and over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft are
noted.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will
continue in the Bay of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf through
this evening, in the wake of a front that has stalled over the
northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to
NW winds and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin
by Wed ahead of a cold front moving through the southern United
States. The front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by early
Thu, with winds turning to the N in the wake of the front.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected
over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as weak high
pressure prevails over the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is analyzed from near western Cuba to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is found along
the stationary front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
central and eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and
eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds and moderate
seas will prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean today.
Widespread fresh trades and rough seas are expected to develop
over this region on Wed as a tightening pressure gradient develops
between the Colombian low, a stalled front in the northwest basin
and building high pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds will
pulse to strong speeds offshore of northern Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela nightly through this weekend, and winds may
reach near-gale force at times. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
trades will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the
passages into this weekend. A new E swell will support rough seas
over this region Wed through this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda through the
central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted along the front. Fresh to near gale winds are N of 27N
and E of the front to 46W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and
W of the front to 70W. Seas of 8-11 ft are over these waters.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere west of the front, with
seas of 4-7 ft, except to 9 ft north of 30W. The remainder of the
discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a
1021 mb high centered near 27N33W. Light to gentle winds are in
the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S
of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in
the 8-12 ft range in NW to N swell east of 50W, and 5-7 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will progress eastward through the
central Atlantic this week. Strong to locally near-gale force SW
winds and rough seas will occur north of 28N and east of 60W ahead
of the cold front through late tonight, with widespread fresh to
strong W to NW winds expected in the wake of the front north of
30N and east of 65W. Winds will subside from west to east tonight
into early Wed. NW swell associated with this front will expand
southeastward over the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Wed,
supporting rough seas north of 27N by late tonight, and north of
25N by Wed afternoon. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible
north of 30N and east of 70W into Wed afternoon. Seas will slowly
subside from west to east, west of 65W, into early Thu. Fresh to
strong SW winds and rough seas will develop offshore of northern
Florida by Wed evening, ahead of a cold front moving over the
southern United States. The cold front is slated to push offshore
early Thu, with fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas expected
in the wake of the front.

$$
AL

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238
AXNT20 KNHC 092047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W and continues
southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 02N37W
to near 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N
to 10N between 26W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Fresh to locally
strong winds are over the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are SE
of a line from N Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the SE
Gulf and over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft are
noted.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will
continue in the Bay of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf through
this evening, in the wake of a front that has stalled over the
northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to
NW winds and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin
by Wed ahead of a cold front moving through the southern United
States. The front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by early
Thu, with winds turning to the N in the wake of the front.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected
over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as weak high
pressure prevails over the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is analyzed from near western Cuba to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is found along
the stationary front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
central and eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and
eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds and moderate
seas will prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean today.
Widespread fresh trades and rough seas are expected to develop
over this region on Wed as a tightening pressure gradient develops
between the Colombian low, a stalled front in the northwest basin
and building high pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds will
pulse to strong speeds offshore of northern Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela nightly through this weekend, and winds may
reach near-gale force at times. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
trades will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the
passages into this weekend. A new E swell will support rough seas
over this region Wed through this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda through the
central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted along the front. Fresh to near gale winds are N of 27N
and E of the front to 46W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and
W of the front to 70W. Seas of 8-11 ft are over these waters.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere west of the front, with
seas of 4-7 ft, except to 9 ft north of 30W. The remainder of the
discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a
1021 mb high centered near 27N33W. Light to gentle winds are in
the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S
of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in
the 8-12 ft range in NW to N swell east of 50W, and 5-7 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will progress eastward through the
central Atlantic this week. Strong to locally near-gale force SW
winds and rough seas will occur north of 28N and east of 60W ahead
of the cold front through late tonight, with widespread fresh to
strong W to NW winds expected in the wake of the front north of
30N and east of 65W. Winds will subside from west to east tonight
into early Wed. NW swell associated with this front will expand
southeastward over the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Wed,
supporting rough seas north of 27N by late tonight, and north of
25N by Wed afternoon. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible
north of 30N and east of 70W into Wed afternoon. Seas will slowly
subside from west to east, west of 65W, into early Thu. Fresh to
strong SW winds and rough seas will develop offshore of northern
Florida by Wed evening, ahead of a cold front moving over the
southern United States. The cold front is slated to push offshore
early Thu, with fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas expected
in the wake of the front.

$$
AL

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415
AXNT20 KNHC 100607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, then runs southwestward to 05N16W. An
ITCZ curves westward from 05N16W to 01N34W to 03N44W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near and up to
200 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W and 40W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is seen the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 01N
to 08N between 10W and 20W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica
and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is generating scattered showers at the south-
central Gulf and Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge
extending southwestward from the Florida Panhandle is dominating
much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 6
to 9 ft are present across the south-central and southeastern
Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate NE to SSE
winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will
continue in the south-central and southeastern Gulf tonight
behind a stalled front over the Yucatan Peninsula/Channel and
western Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds
and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin by Wed
ahead of a cold front moving through the southern United States.
This front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by early Thu,
with winds turning to the north in the wake of the front.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected
over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as weak high
pressure prevails over the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front stretches southwestward from the Great Bahama
Bank across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel into the Yucatan
Peninsula. Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms are found up
to 50 nm along either side of the front. A surface trough is
creating widely scattered moderate convection near and west of
Jamaica. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the
beginning for more information. Fresh to locally strong ENE to E
winds with 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the south-central basin.
Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present at
the north-central and eastern basin, and part of the western
basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will
continue in the central and the southeastern basin tonight behind
a stalled front that extends from western Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to N winds and
moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin by Wed ahead
of a cold front moving through the southern United States. This
front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by early Thu, with
winds turning to the north in the wake of the front. Otherwise,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the
remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as weak high pressure
prevails over the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N58W to 26N70W, then continues as a stationary front to
beyond the central Bahama. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring near and up to 200 nm northwest of this boundary.
Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered moderate
convection from 06N to 10N between 27W and 39W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

A 1021 mb high near 27N36W is dominating the central and eastern
Atlantic from 21N to 27N between 35W and 60W with gentle to
moderate E to SE winds, and 6 to 9 ft in large northerly swell. To
the north, tight gradient between the high and a 998 mb low
pressure in the north-central Atlantic is inducing fresh to strong
SW winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft north of 27N between 35W and 55W.
Farther west from 20N to 31N, between 55W/60W and the Florida and
southern Georgia coast, gentle with locally moderate SE to W to
NW winds and 6 to 10 ft seas in large northerly swell exist. For
the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N/22N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to
9 ft are noted. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of
35W, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas that
precede the front, north of 28N and east of 60W will diminish
late tonight into Wed. NW swell associated with this front will
expand southeastward over the northwestern tropical Atlantic
through Wed, supporting rough seas north of 27N by late tonight,
and north of 25N by Wed afternoon. Seas reaching to around 12 ft
will be possible north of 30N and east of 69W into Wed afternoon.
Seas will slowly subside from west to east, west of 65W, into
early Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds along with
rough seas will develop offshore of northern Florida by Wed
evening ahead of a cold front that will be moving across the
southern United States. This cold front is expected to move
offshore the southeastern U.S. coast Wed night, with fresh to
strong NW winds and rough seas expected in the wake of the front.

$$

Chan

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507
AXNT20 KNHC 101019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal
border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, and continues southwestward
to 06N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N27W to 02N36W
and to near 02N46W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W and 27W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 03N to 06N between 30W-39W, south
of the ITCZ to the Equator between 25W-37W and within 30 nm south
of the ITCZ between 28.5N-31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is analyzed from 24N85W to 22N89W and to 24N92W. Isolated
showers are near the trough between 85W and 87W. Isolated showers
are also east of the trough to the Straits of Florida. A stalled
frontal boundary extends from western Cuba to inland the Yucatan
Peninsula. Otherwise, broad ridging extends from the southeastern
United States southwestward to the western Gulf. Moderate to
fresh northeast winds are concentrated over the southeastern Gulf
from about 22.5N to 25N between 84W and 89W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in
residual NE swell are over these waters. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are present over the remainder of the basin,
except offshore the Texas coast, where moderate south to southwest
winds are present. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the rest of the of
the Gulf, except in the NE Gulf where seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh west to northwest
winds and moderate seas will develop in the NE Gulf late this
afternoon as a dry cold front moves across the southern Unites
States. The front will cross the northern Gulf waters tonight into
early Thu, with winds turning to the northwest to north in
direction behind the front. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds
and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the Gulf into
early Sun as weak high pressure prevails over the basin. Later on
Sun and Sun night, it presently appears that another cold front
may move across the basin, followed by stronger winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front stretches southwestward from the Great Bahama
Ban to across western Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel into the
Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated weak showers are possible near the
front. Ahead of the front, isolated small showers and thunderstorms
are seen from 18N to 22N between 80.5W and 84W. A trough is
analyzed from near 18N81W to 11N79W. Isolated weak showers are
also from 14N to 18N between 77W and 83W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are confined to south of 11N between 77W
and 82W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes indicate
fresh to strong trade winds present over south-central Caribbean
waters while moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere east of
about 80W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with the fresh to strong trade
winds, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the central Caribbean and 4 to
6 ft elsewhere east of 80W. Light and variable winds are
west of 80W along with seas of 2 to 4 ft in southeast swell,
except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in a north to northeast
swell between the western tip of Cuba and the northeast part of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds in the central
Caribbean will expand to across the eastern Caribbean by late Fri
and into the weekend as a tightening pressure gradient develops
between lower pressures in northern South America and in the
southwestern Caribbean, a stalled front that extends from western
Cuba to inland the Yucatan Peninsula and building high pressure in
the central Atlantic. Winds will pulse to strong speeds offshore
of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela nightly through
this weekend, with winds possibly reaching near gale at times.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds over the tropical
Atlantic waters will continue into this weekend while funneling
through the passages. New E swell will support rough seas over
this region through this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic southwestward
to 31N55W and to 26N69W, where it continues as a stationary front
to the central Bahama and to western Cuba. Satellite imagery
reveals a large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection north of the frontal boundary from 25N to 30N between
71W and 75W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
evident from 24N to 26N between 75W and 77.5W. Isolated showers
and patches of rain are possible elsewhere north of the frontal
boundary mainly east of about 80W.

High pressure of 1021 mb high near 27N39W is the dominate feature
for the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Its associated
pressure gradient is generally providing for gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds from 21N to 24N. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in
long- period north swell is mixing with an east swell component
south of 21N and east of the Lesser Antilles, where fresh to
strong trade winds are quite expansive in coverage. To the north,
tight gradient between the high and a 992 mb low pressure in the
north-central Atlantic is resulting in fresh to strong southwest
winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft north of 29N between 52W and 60W.
Gentle to moderate winds are over the remainder of the Atlantic
basin along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will will begin to
weaken today. It will continue eastward reaching the eastern
forecast waters by Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas
that precede the front north of 28N and east of 60W will diminish
this morning. NW swell associated with this front will expand in
coverage over the eastern zones on Thu as it merges with an
extensive area of E swell. Seas reaching to around 12 ft will be
possible north of 30N and east of 62W this morning before shifting
E of the area. Seas elsewhere will gradually subside from W to E
into early Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds along with
rough seas will develop offshore of northern Florida by this
evening ahead of a cold front that will be moving across the
southern United States. This cold front is expected to move
offshore the southeastern U.S. coast tonight, with fresh to strong
NW winds and rough seas expected in the wake of the front. The
front will weaken as it quickly reaching the NE forecast waters on
Fri. In its wake, high pressure will become established E to W
near 29N into the weekend as yet another frontal boundary attempts
to move across the waters east of northern Florida.

$$
Aguirre

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769
AXNT20 KNHC 101720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1717 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13.5W, and
continues southwestward to 07N16W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 02N31W to 02N36W and to near 01.5N46.5W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N
between 22W and 41W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
05S to 01N between 25W and 36W. Similar convection is found from
the Equator to 05N between 10W to 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is analyzed over the western Gulf. The stalled frontal
boundary that extends from western Cuba to inland the Yucatan
Peninsula has dissipated. A trough is now analyzed in the same
area. Otherwise, high pressure prevails across the Gulf. Moderate
northeast winds are concentrated over the southeastern Gulf. Seas
of around 6 ft in residual NE swell are over these waters. Light
to gentle anticyclonic winds are present over the remainder of the
basin, except offshore the Texas coast, where moderate south to
southwest winds are present. Seas are 2 to 5 ft across the rest
of the of the Gulf, except in the NE Gulf where seas are 3 ft or
less.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will quickly push across the
E Gulf tonight into tomorrow before dissipating by Fri. Conditions
across the entire Gulf will be quiescent for next few days as
subtle high pressure prevails. Looking ahead, a strong cold front
should reach the N waters on Sun or Sun night with building winds
and seas behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front stretches southwestward from the Great Bahama
Bank to western Cuba, where it transition to a surface trough that
extends to the Yucatan Channel into the Yucatan Peninsula.
Isolated weak showers are possible near the trough. A trough is
analyzed over the NE part of the basin. The latest scatterometer
satellite data passes indicate fresh to strong trade winds present
over south-central Caribbean waters while moderate to fresh trade
winds are elsewhere east of about 80W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with
the fresh to strong trade winds, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the
central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere east of 80W. Light and
variable winds are west of 80W along with seas of 2 to 4 ft in
southeast swell, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in a north to
northeast swell between the western tip of Cuba and the northeast
part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the
Bermuda- Azores High and the Colombian Low will continue to
produce widespread fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean for the next several days. Similarly, trades over the
tropical North Atlantic will generally be fresh to strong with
seas to 11 ft in large E swell through the weekend. Some of this
large swell will also funnel through the Atlantic passages in the
Lesser Antilles.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic southwestward
to 31N48W and to 26N73W, where it continues as a stationary front
to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba. Moderate SW winds and
seas 8 to 11 ft are found along the front. Satellite imagery
reveals a large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection along and north of the frontal boundary between 60W and
74W. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high pressure near 27N38W is the
dominate feature for the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Its
associated pressure gradient is generally providing for gentle NE
to E winds. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in long- period north swell is
mixing with an east swell component south of 23N and east of the
Lesser Antilles, where fresh to locally strong trade winds are
quite expansive in coverage. Gentle to moderate winds are over the
remainder of the Atlantic basin along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will
dissipate late tonight. Fresh to strong SW to W winds will develop
north of the Bahamas tonight ahead of our next cold front. The
new front should emerge off of the Florida/Georgia coast late
tonight and extend from near 31N75W to the Florida Straits
tomorrow morning, moving to 31N60W to the Turks and Caicos Fri
morning, and dissipating in our NE waters from 31N55W to 27N60W
Sat morning. Winds north of 27N both ahead and behind the cold
front will be fresh to strong on Thu and Fri. Additionally, 8-10
ft seas due to mixed SE and N swell will impact the waters south
of 25N east of 65W tomorrow and extending through the weekend.
Winds will improve across forecast waters Fri night through the
weekend.

$$ KRV

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622
AXNT20 KNHC 102101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Dec 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues
southwestward to 08N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ which
continues to 02.5N33W to 03N40W to near 01.5N48W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N
between 23W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is analyzed over the western Gulf. Otherwise, high
pressure prevails across the Gulf. Moderate northeast winds
prevail over the southeastern Gulf, where seas are in the 3-5 ft
range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, generally
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will quickly push across the E
Gulf tonight into tomorrow before dissipating by Fri. The front
will be accompanied by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds.
Afterwards, conditions across the entire Gulf will be quiescent
for next couple of days as subtle high pressure prevails. A
strong cold front should reach the N waters on Sun with increasing
winds and building seas behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean,
where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, light to gentle
winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, are noted.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the
Bermuda- Azores High and the Colombian Low will continue to
produce widespread fresh to strong trades over the central and E
Caribbean for the next several days. Similarly, trades over the
tropical North Atlantic will generally be fresh to strong with
seas to 10 ft in large E swell through early next week. Some of
this large swell will also funnel through the Atlantic passages in
the Lesser Antilles. A cold front should reach the Yucatan
Channel on Mon with increasing winds and seas behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary extends from 31N43W to the Florida Straits.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is along the
boundary. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are found
N of the front. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
discussion waters, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near
27N38W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. Fresh to locally strong winds are S of 20N. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range
south of the front to 20N and west of 50W. Elsewhere, seas of 7-10
ft prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will
dissipate late tonight. Fresh to strong W winds will develop
north of the Bahamas tonight ahead of our next cold front. The new
front should emerge off of the Florida/Georgia coast late tonight
and extend from near 31N74W to the Florida Straits tomorrow
morning, moving to 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Fri morning, and
dissipating in our NE waters from 31N55W to 27N61W Sat morning.
Winds north of 27N both ahead and behind the cold front will be
fresh to strong on Thu and Fri. Additionally, 8-10 ft seas due to
mixed SE and N swell will impact the waters south of 25N east of
65W tonight and extending through early next week. Winds will
improve across forecast waters Fri night through the weekend.
Another cold front will reach the waters north of the Bahamas Sun
afternoon with increasing winds and building seas occurring
behind the front.

$$
AL

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976
AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Dec 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast
near Freetown, then runs southwestward to 06N19W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 06N19W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted up to 240 nm along either side
of the ITCZ between 19W and 36W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen near and up to 120 nm north of the rest of the
ITCZ, and also south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 05N
between 10W and 19W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front is causing patchy showers from near New Orleans
eastward to the Florida Panhandle. A surface trough is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Yucatan
Channel and the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge
extending southeastward from central Texas is dominating the rest
of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
present at the northeastern Gulf and offshore of New Orleans.
Gentle to moderate N to NE to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will quickly push across
the eastern Gulf tonight into tomorrow before dissipating by Fri.
The front will be accompanied by fresh to strong NW to N winds.
Afterwards, conditions across the entire Gulf will be quiescent
for next couple of days as subtle high pressure prevails. A strong
cold front should reach the northern waters on Sun with
increasing winds and building seas behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near eastern Dominican Republic and the Mona
Passage. Convergent trade winds are generating isolated
thunderstorms across the northwestern basin. Refer to the ITCZ and
Monsoon Trough section for additional weather in the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are evident
at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds with
5 to 7 ft seas are at the north-central basin. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-
Azores High and the Colombian Low will continue to produce
widespread fresh to strong trades over the central and eastern
basin for the next several days. Similarly, trades over the
tropical North Atlantic will generally be fresh to strong with
rough seas in large E swell through early next week. Some of this
swell will also funnel through the Atlantic passages into the
Lesser Antilles. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on
Mon with increasing winds and seas behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front runs southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N57W to east of central Bahamas. Scattered
moderate convection is found up to 180 nm along either side of
the front. A surface trough along the east coast of Florida is
creating showers and thunderstorms at the Great Bahama Bank.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin, west of 35W.

Fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen
offshore from northeastern Florida. Otherwise, moderate with
locally fresh SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate to
large northerly swell exist north of 22N between 55W and the
Florida east coast. At the central Atlantic north of 23N between
35W and 42W, a 1026 mb high pressure is providing light to gentle
winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in large mixed swell. For the tropical
Atlantic, fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft
are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W,
gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will
dissipate late tonight. Fresh to strong W winds will develop north
of the Bahamas tonight ahead of our next cold front. The new
front should emerge off of the Florida/Georgia coast late tonight
and extend from near 31N74W to the Florida Straits tomorrow
morning, moving to 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Fri morning, and
dissipating in our NE waters from 31N55W to 27N61W Sat morning.
Winds north of 27N both ahead and behind the cold front will be
fresh to strong on Thu and Fri. Additionally, 8-10 ft seas due to
mixed SE and N swell will impact the waters south of 25N east of
65W tonight and extending through early next week. Winds will
improve across forecast waters Fri night through the weekend.
Another cold front will reach the waters north of the Bahamas Sun
afternoon with increasing winds and building seas occurring behind
the front.

$$

Chan

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119
AXNT20 KNHC 111035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Dec 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N18W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 04N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front has entered the northern Gulf, extending from 30N85W
to 26N97W. To the S, a surface trough is generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Yucatan Channel and the
Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending
southeastward from central Texas is dominating the rest of the
Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas are present
at the northeastern Gulf and offshore of New Orleans. Gentle to
moderate N to NE to SE winds and slight seas prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will quickly push across the E
Gulf today before dissipating by Fri. The front will be
accompanied by fresh NW to N winds. Afterwards, conditions across
the entire Gulf will be quiescent for next couple of days as
subtle high pressure prevails. The next cold front should reach
the N waters on Sun with increasing winds and building seas behind
the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over eastern Dominican Republic and adjacent waters.
To the W, another trough extends across the Yucatan Channel with
similar activity. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas
are evident at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds with moderate seas are at the north-central basin.
Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient between the
Bermuda-Azores High and the Colombian Low will continue to
produce widespread fresh to strong trades over the central and E
Caribbean for the next several days. Similarly, trades over the
tropical North Atlantic will be fresh to strong with rough seas in
large E swell through early next week. Some of the swell will
also funnel through the Atlantic passages in the Lesser Antilles.
A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Mon with increasing
winds and seas behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal boundary has transitions into a surface
trough, analyzed from 31N58W to 26N69W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted in the vicinity of the trough between 61W-78W. To the W,
another surface trough is analyzed along the east coast of
Florida. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge prevails, anchored by a
1026 mb high centered near 27N44W.

Fresh to strong SW to W winds and moderate seas are noted
offshore from northeastern Florida ahead of the next cold front.
Otherwise, moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and rough
seas in moderate to large northerly swell exist north of 22N
between 55W and the Florida east coast. At the central Atlantic
north of 23N between 35W and 42W, light to gentle winds and rough
seas prevail in large mixed swell. For the tropical Atlantic,
fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are present. For the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate
ESE to SE winds and moderate seas exist.

For the forecast, the surface trough in the W-central Atlantic
will dissipate this morning. The next cold front will extend from
near 31N74W to the Florida Straits this morning, to 31N62W to the
Turks and Caicos Fri morning, and dissipating in our NE waters
from 31N55W to 27N62W Sat morning. Winds north of 27N both ahead
and behind the front will be fresh to strong through Fri.
Additionally, rough seas due to mixed SE and N swell will continue
to impact the waters south of 25N east of 65W this morning and
extend through early next week. Winds will improve across forecast
waters Fri night through the weekend. Another cold front will
reach the waters north of the Bahamas Sun afternoon with
increasing winds and building seas behind the front.

$$
ERA

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