ACUS03 KWNS 200804
SWODY3
SPC AC 200803

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the
southern Plains and Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential
appears low.

...Synopsis...

An upper low and attendant trough will overspread the Southwest on
Saturday while shortwave upper ridging develops over the
southern/central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will develop
southeast across the TX coast and much of the Southeast U.S.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front amid a
modestly unstable and moist boundary layer. Severe storms are not
expected given limited instability and weak vertical shear.
Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Southwest where cold temperatures aloft will support meager but
sufficient MUCAPE.

Model spread increases late in the period regarding the ejection of
the Southwest upper trough. Some guidance suggests a low-level jet
will strengthen across the southern High Plains vicinity as the
upper trough approaches the vicinity toward Sunday morning.
Increasing midlevel moisture within deep-layer southwesterly flow,
and modestly steepening midlevel lapse rates could generate enough
elevated instability for isolated thunderstorm development across
the southern High Plains overnight, though severe storms are not
expected.

..Leitman.. 11/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201931
SWODY3
SPC AC 201931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the
southern Plains and Southeast on Saturday, though severe
thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will translate to an open wave while impinging on
the southern High Plains, with a broad mid-level trough poised to
traverse the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. As a result, widespread
surface high pressure will overspread much of the central and
northern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential for these areas.
Adequate moisture ahead of the surface cold front, along with
frontal convergence, will encourage isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening across
portions of eastern TX to the Carolina coastline. A few lightning
flashes are also possible across portions of AZ into NM as cold air
aloft from the upper low coincides with synoptic ascent of a
marginally moist, unstable airmass. Low-level moisture may be
locally more robust into western TX, where surface lee troughing,
encouraged by the approaching mid-level trough, will promote
warm-air/moisture advection from the Gulf. While the moist
southeasterly flow beneath 60-80 kt southwesterly 500 mb winds will
promote strong low-level shear, modest mid-level lapse rates atop a
stable boundary layer should limit the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 11/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210826
SWODY3
SPC AC 210825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE RIO GRANDE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low across the Southwest will become an open wave
as it moves into the Plains on Sunday. Weak surface troughing is
forecast to develop across the High Plains during the day.
Strengthening southerly flow east of this surface trough will bring
rich moisture northward across central Texas as a warm front lifts
northward.

...Central Texas to the Rio Grande...
Strengthening low-level flow will continue to destabilize the
boundary layer through the day as a warm front lifts north. As
isentropic ascent increases during the afternoon/evening, widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along the warm front and also
along the cold front/dryline. Moderate instability and strong shear
will support the potential for mostly elevated supercells capable of
isolated large hail. As storms grow upscale, the threat for damaging
wind gusts will increase during the late evening and into the
overnight period. Initially, expect convection to be elevated, but
it may eventually become more surface based as storms advance into
the warm sector. Low-level lapse rates will be very weak (3-4 C/km)
which should keep any tornado threat isolated. However, given the
strong low-level shear, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Bentley.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211929
SWODY3
SPC AC 211928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the
primary threat.

...Synopsis...
A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS on Day
3/Sunday as multiple mid-level troughs progress across the
Northeast, the Plains states, and the Pacific Northwest,
respectively. At the surface, high pressure and static stability
will become established east of the MS River to the East Coast, and
over much of the Interior West, limiting thunderstorm potential over
these regions. However, the amplification of the central U.S.
mid-level trough will encourage surface lee troughing and subsequent
southerly moisture return across portions of the central and
southern Plains, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
likely. Strong flow aloft over TX will overspread a moist axis,
where adequate coinciding buoyancy and vertical wind shear will
support an isolated severe threat. Otherwise, a few lightning
flashes are possible along the Pacific Northwest coastline with the
passage of a mid-level trough and accompanying cooler temperatures
aloft.

...Portions of southwestern into central TX...
As the mid-level trough overspreads TX through the period, a
southerly low-level jet will develop, particularly after 00Z, when
850 mb southerly flow will exceed 35 kts. A relatively stable
boundary layer will remain in place Sunday through Sunday night.
However, atop this layer, seasonably rich moisture around 850 mb,
beneath 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield 1000-1500
J/kg of MUCAPE, which is adequate for supporting strong but elevated thunderstorms. From late afternoon into the overnight hours,
increased isentropic lift above the stable boundary layer, driven by
the approaching mid-level trough, will promote an increase in
thunderstorms through the evening over western and central TX. The
southerly 35 kt low-level jet, overspread by 50-70 kt mid-level
southwesterlies from the upper trough, will yield elongated
hodographs and up to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This shear, and aforementioned MUCAPE, will support the potential for elevated
supercells late Sunday afternoon and overnight, with severe hail
possible.

..Squitieri.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220832
SWODY3
SPC AC 220830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected across eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated
Large hail and a tornado or two will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deamplify as it moves from the central
Plains to the southern Great Lakes on Monday. A secondary mid-level
trough will amplify as it moves through the northern Plains and into
the Upper Midwest. A more consolidated surface low will develop
across the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. A warm front will
lift from near the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by
Monday evening. A somewhat diffuse cold frontal zone will extend
from the Ozarks to the southern Plains.

...Eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Rich low-level moisture will advect northward across East Texas and
Louisiana on Monday. This will result in moderate instability ahead
of the frontal zone from East Texas into Louisiana. Extensive
cloudcover may be a limiting factor to greater destabilization, but
sufficient instability is expected for strong to severe storms
Monday afternoon/evening. A messier storm mode is expected near the
ArkLaTex, but a more favorable zone may exist south of this area
where supercell storm mode will be favored. Long hodographs with
largely streamwise low-level hodographs may result in some tornado
threat, in addition to the large hail threat. While the greatest
threat is expected during the late afternoon to early evening, some
threat will likely persist into the overnight period as a mostly
uncapped moderately unstable airmass is expected to persist amid
rich low-level moisture.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221913
SWODY3
SPC AC 221912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO FAR
SOUTHERN AR...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday
afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the central to southern High Plains will
move east, dampening Monday night in response to an upstream wave
digging from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Great Plains.
While the leading surface low will remain weak, pronounced
upper-level diffluence and persistent low-level warm theta-e
advection will support extensive convection across the South-Central
States through the period.

...Central TX to the Ark-La-Miss...
A swath of elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from
central TX northeastward, likely north of a gradually advancing
surface warm front. This boundary should accelerate north-northeast
with diurnal heating, yielding expansion of surface-based
instability across much of east TX by afternoon. While
low-probability severe hail is possible early, primary severe
potential should await peak heating along/ahead of the trailing
early-day convective swath. Elongated hodographs, amid 500-mb
southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts, will favor regenerative
supercells. These should be semi-discrete with southwest extent and
embedded within an increasingly messy cluster mode northeastward.

Large hail and some tornado threat should tend to be favored across
east TX during the late afternoon and evening, before low-level
winds subside and become more veered Monday night from west to east.
Nocturnal tornado and some damaging wind potential may persist
across the Sabine Valley towards the Ark-La-Miss, where enlarged
low-level hodographs coincide with the northeast flank of the
surface-based instability plume.

..Grams.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230828
SWODY3
SPC AC 230827

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions
of the Southeast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday
with ridging across the West. A cold front will sharpen near the
Mississippi River and cross the Appalachians by the end of the
period.

...Southeast...
Mid 60s dewpoints will stream northward ahead of a cold front across
the Southeast on Tuesday. This will result in moderate
destabilization within a zone of moderate to strong deep-layer
shear. Minimal inhibition is expected along the front by
mid-afternoon which should support isolated to scattered storm
development. A strong low-level jet, initially across MS/TN/AL
during the morning, will move quickly east and is forecast over the Mid-Atlantic by 00Z. If this occurs, low-level shear will not be
that strong along the frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Therefore, isolated large hail will likely be the primary severe
weather threat. Storm intensity is expected to lessen by late
evening due to the cooling boundary layer ahead of the cold front.

...South Texas...
The southwestern edge of the surface cold front will stall across
South Texas Tuesday afternoon/evening. The environment south of this
front will feature moderate instability and shear. Upper forcing may
be somewhat nebulous, but convergence along the front may be
sufficient for isolated to widely scattered storms late Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. If storms develop, large hail will
likely be the primary threat.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

$$

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