ACUS02 KWNS 200625
SWODY2
SPC AC 200624

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the
Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will migrate east from the central
Plains to the Ohio Valley on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper low will
develop southward across southern CA/northwest Mexico. Cold
temperatures beneath the upper low will support isolated lightning
flashes across far southern CA into the Lower CO Valley. Further
east, a broad area of warm advection will transport Gulf moisture
northward across the south-central states toward the TN Valley. As
the upper trough develops east, a weak surface low will move along a
warm front draped across the OH Valley, while a cold front shifts
east across the Ozarks into eastern TX.

Stronger deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the warm
sector, but is expected to weaken some with time while also becoming increasingly displaced to the north of the warm sector (in tandem
with stronger large-scale ascent) into the afternoon/evening.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within a
modestly unstable airmass ahead of the cold front, but sub-optimal thermodynamic profiles and weakening vertical shear will limit
severe potential.

..Leitman.. 11/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201722
SWODY2
SPC AC 201721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast to the
central Appalachians tomorrow (Friday). Severe thunderstorms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the TN Valley as an upper
low meanders over southern CA tomorrow (Friday). Isolated lightning
flashes may occur across southern CA into southwestern AZ as lift
and cooler temperatures aloft overspread the region in association
with the upper low. Across the TN Valley, the passage of the
aforementioned mid-level shortwave trough will encourage a low-level
warm-air advection regime. Modest upper support, in tandem with
mediocre buoyancy (driven primarily by low-level moisture) will
support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from eastern TX to the
central Appalachians through the day tomorrow.

...TN Valley Friday night...
As the low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough overspreads the TN
Valley, low-level flow (however moist) should become highly veered
through the day Friday, resulting in unidirectional wind fields and substantially reduced low-level convergence. However, by Friday
night (i.e. 03-09Z time frame), guidance does hint at a small
mid-level impulse traversing the TN Valley. Locally stronger flow
aloft with this impulse will support some speed shear/elongated
hodographs, resulting in 40+ kt effective bulk shear across the warm
sector ahead of an approaching surface cold front. An uptick in
thunderstorm coverage may occur during this time, and some of these
storms may become organized. Still, buoyancy will be weak, with no
more than a few hundred J/kg of thin MLCAPE given poor tropospheric
lapse rates. A stronger, sustained storm capable of producing a
damaging gust or brief tornado would be plausible with the
anticipated vertical wind shear given better buoyancy. However, the
current thinking is that buoyancy may be too limited to warrant
severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210652
SWODY2
SPC AC 210651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the
southern Plains and Southeast on Saturday, though severe
thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Discussion...
Multiple embedded shortwave troughs will exist within the broader
trough across the Great Lakes and the East Coast. Shortwave ridging
will build across the southern/central Plains ahead of an upper-low
across the Southwest which will start to become a more broad/open
wave by the end of the period. A cold front will extend from the
North Carolina coast through the Southeast. Weak instability is
forecast south of this front where low to mid 60s dewpoints are
present. However, forcing will be weak amid negligible frontal
convergence and neutral height tendencies aloft.

As a mid-level jet streak emerges across the southern High Plains
early Sunday morning, a locally favorable environment for small hail
may develop on the leading edge of this jet streak. A strengthening
low-level jet and increasing low-level moisture will result in
moderate instability across the region. In addition, the
strengthening mid-level flow will result in a favorable wind profile
for supercells. Small hail appears most likely at this time, but if
greater instability develops, isolated large hail is possible early
Sunday morning.

..Bentley.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211728
SWODY2
SPC AC 211727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the
southern Plains and Southeast tomorrow (Saturday), though severe
thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough, with multiple embedded impulses, will
progress across the eastern U.S. as upper ridging builds over the
Plains, and an upper low overspreads the Southwest tomorrow
(Saturday). With the evolution of this upper pattern, surface high
pressure and accompanying cooler, stable air will overspread most of
the central and northern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential.
From southeast TX to the coastal Carolinas, widely scattered
thunderstorm development is possible ahead of a surface cold front,
which will be ushered southeast by the aforementioned mid-level
trough, toward a seasonably moist low-level airmass. Thunderstorms
will also be possible across portions of the Desert Southwest into
western TX, beneath the progression of the upper low, which may
evolve into an upper wave through Saturday. Cooler temperatures
aloft will promote buoyancy (albeit scant) for thunderstorm
development.

...Southeast VA into central and eastern NC...
In roughly the 18-00Z period, isolated to widespread scattered
thunderstorm development is possible ahead of the cold front, aided
further by upper support with an overspreading embedded mid-level
impulse. Overlapping 60-70 kt 500 mb westerly flow atop 25+ kt west-southwesterly 850 mb winds will yield elongated, straight
hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Through the day,
diurnal heating will support upper 60s/mid 70s F surface
temperatures amid 60+ F dewpoints. These low-level thermodynamic
conditions should yield around 500 J/kg MLCAPE via tall/thin
buoyancy profiles given modest tropospheric lapse rates. While gusty
conditions and perhaps some hail may accompany the stronger storms,
organized severe wind/hail seems unlikely, with severe probabilities
withheld for now.

...Southern and central AZ into southwestern NM...
A nearly vertically stacked upper low (from roughly 850 mb on up)
will overspread AZ and NM through the period. A belt of stronger,
mostly unidirectional flow in the 850-500 mb layer will pivot around
the low and overspread portions of southern into central AZ and
southwestern NM in the 00-12Z time frame. This flow, resulting in
elongated hodographs (and 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear) will
coincide with 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting
multicells capable of at least small hail. Since these favorable
conditions will be overspreading an overnight (potentially stable)
boundary layer, MUCAPE should be thin, and only reach a few hundred
J/kg. As such, the current thinking is that buoyancy may be too
limited to support severe probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220638
SWODY2
SPC AC 220636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the
primary threat.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the central
Plains on Sunday. Lee troughing is forecast along the High Plains
during the day Sunday with a weak cyclone likely to develop near the
Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Monday. A warm front will only slowly
advance north across Texas during the day, but will advance north
more aggressively after 00Z.

...West Texas into north-central Texas...
As the mid-level trough advances east on Sunday, a low-level jet
will strengthen across Texas. This will lead to increasing
isentropic ascent and thunderstorm coverage during the day. Moderate instability, paired with moderate shear and steepening mid-level
lapse rates may result in an environment which supports isolated
large hail from a few elevated supercells. However, stronger storm
coverage may be somewhat limited during the day.
Greater coverage is anticipated Sunday night as stronger height
falls overspread the southern Plains. Isolated large hail will be
the primary threat, but a few damaging wind gusts may be possible if
storms grow upscale and move into the surface-based warm sector late
in the period as it starts to move northward more quickly.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221703
SWODY2
SPC AC 221701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail is possible from Sunday late afternoon into
Sunday night across parts of west to north-central Texas.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress from the Southwest
into the central/southern High Plains through early Monday. This
will induce a weak surface wave over eastern CO, displaced well
north of a front that is currently along the Upper TX Coast to south
TX. This boundary should remain quasi-stationary into Sunday
afternoon before gradually advancing north on Sunday night over
south-central TX.

...TX Trans-Pecos to north TX...
A confined plume of surface-based destabilization should develop
into the TX Trans-Pecos by late afternoon, with otherwise elevated
buoyancy across western to central TX. Severe potential should
commence towards late afternoon with initial cells that may be
sustained along the eastern periphery of the surface-based
instability corridor before becoming elevated downstream. Within a
persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime, regenerative
elevated convection is expected through Monday morning. Mid-level
lapse rates appear modest, but adequate low-level moisture should be
present amid strong effective bulk shear to pose an isolated severe
hail risk. A few supercells might occur early, with a predominately
messy cluster mode by Sunday night. This setup could warrant a
mesoscale corridor of greater hail probabilities in the Permian
Basin vicinity, with lower confidence in the overnight extent of
severe potential towards central and north TX.

..Grams.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230654
SWODY2
SPC AC 230652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TEXAS TO
FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday
afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central/southern
states on Monday with a second mid-level trough advancing from the
Northwest to the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will
dominate much of the eastern CONUS with broad low pressure across
the Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm front near the Gulf Coast
Monday morning will lift north through the day.

...East Texas to southern Arkansas...
Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period from north-central Texas to southern Arkansas to the north of
a warm front. Isolated large hail is possible with these storms, but
a more widespread threat is not expected during the morning. The
warm front will advect northward quickly through the day and lead to
moderate destabilization across the warm sector. A messy storm mode
is expected along the warm front for much of the day with some
marginal severe threat. The greatest severe weather threat should
begin by mid-afternoon as height falls overspread the warm sector
and slight mid-level cooling results in an uncapped warm sector.
This should result in scattered supercell development within the
open warm-sector by late afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet
(40-45 knots) is expected to overspread the warm sector during this
same timeframe. This may result in a brief window during the late
afternoon to early evening where a few tornadoes (perhaps strong)
could occur.

A nocturnal wind/tornado threat may persist into the late
evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture will help to
maintain an unstable boundary layer into the overnight period where cyclonically curved low-level hodographs will persist.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

$$

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