ACUS01 KWNS 200600
SWODY1
SPC AC 200558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today into this
evening across the southern Plains. Isolated hail, localized strong
to severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially extending from the
Southwest into northern Mexico will eject northeastward across parts
of the southern Plains later today. In response to this shortwave, a
surface low will gradually deepen across the south-central Great
Plains and move eastward through the period. A surface boundary
draped across parts of OK/AR in the morning will lift slowly
northward in the advance of the surface low. Upstream, another
shortwave trough will drop southward along the Pacific coast and
evolve into a closed midlevel low across southern CA by the end of
the period.

...Southern Plains...
Scattered storms will be ongoing across parts of the southern Plains
later this morning, aided by a modest low-level jet and ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Initially moderate
MUCAPE and effective shear of 40+ kt could support a few strong to
locally severe storms during the morning from parts of eastern NM
into west/central TX and OK, with a threat of isolated hail and
locally gusty winds.

Convection will persist through the day, resulting in generally
modest heating and weakening midlevel lapse rates with time. As a
result, while deep-layer shear will remain relatively strong across
the warm sector, potential for organized convection downstream or in
the wake of morning convection remains somewhat uncertain. Depending
on the extent of heating and destabilization, at least some
potential for isolated supercells and/or organized clusters could
evolve during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of marginally
severe hail and locally damaging wind. Some enlargement of low-level
hodographs with time could also support a brief tornado threat from
parts of central/eastern TX into eastern OK and western AR, if any surface-based supercells can be sustained.

Farther west, some CAM guidance depicts development of a modestly
organized convective line across NM into west TX during the
afternoon/evening, in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave
trough. This could pose a threat of strong gusts, but it remains
quite uncertain as to whether instability will be sufficient to
support a severe threat with this scenario.

..Dean/Moore.. 11/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201242
SWODY1
SPC AC 201240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this
evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.

...Southern Plains into Arkansas...
A mid/upper-level trough extending from the Southwest into northern
Mexico this morning will eject northeastward across parts of the
southern Plains today. In response, a surface low will gradually
deepen across the south-central High Plains and develop eastward
through the period. A front extending across parts of OK/AR this
morning will lift slowly northward as a warm front ahead of the
surface low. Thunderstorms ongoing across parts of the southern
Plains/ArkLaTex this morning are being aided by a modest low-level
jet and ascent attendant to the approaching upper trough. Weak to
locally moderate instability and effective shear of 40-50 kt may
support a few strong to severe thunderstorms this morning from parts
of eastern NM into west/central TX and OK, with a threat for mainly
isolated hail and locally gusty winds.

Convection and widespread cloud cover will likely persist through
the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal heating and weakening
mid-level lapse rates with time. While enhanced deep-layer shear
will remain across the warm sector owing to persistent strong
southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for organized
thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning
convection remains uncertain. Still, depending on the extent of
heating and related destabilization, most guidance continues to show
some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized multicell
clusters this afternoon/evening across portions of TX, with a threat
of isolated severe hail and damaging winds. Modest enlargement of
low-level hodographs with time could also support a tornado threat
from parts of central/east TX into eastern OK/western AR along and
south of the warm front, assuming surface-based supercells can be
sustained. An isolated severe risk may persist into east TX and the
ArkLaTex tonight. However, confidence in a corridor of greater
severe risk remains too low to include higher severe probabilities
at this time.

Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the
development of a modestly organized convective line across far
eastern NM into west TX during the afternoon/evening, in closer
proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could pose a
threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains
uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to
support a severe threat. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk
across this region with only minor changes.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201632
SWODY1
SPC AC 201631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this
evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.

...Southern Plains to Arkansas...
Showers/thunderstorms remain common at late morning with widespread
cloud cover with the warm sector across most of Texas and Oklahoma.
This precedes a mid/upper-level trough currently located over
Arizona/New Mexico and far northern Mexico, which will continue to
eject northeastward toward the southern High Plains. A surface low
will gradually deepen across the south-central High Plains and
develop eastward through the period.

It still seems likely that convection and widespread cloud cover
will persist through the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal
heating and weakening mid-level lapse rates with time. While
enhanced deep-layer shear will remain across the warm sector owing
to persistent strong southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for
organized thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning
convection remains uncertain, particularly in the context of
somewhat stronger low-level winds more likely to interface where
convective overturning has occurred.

Regardless, some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized
multicell clusters will exist this afternoon/evening particularly
across portions of central and possibly into parts of
North/northeast Texas. This includes isolated severe hail and
damaging winds, and a modest enlargement of low-level hodographs
could also support a tornado risk.

Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the
development of additional strong/locally severe storms across
east/southeast New Mexico into west Texas/southwest Oklahoma, in
closer proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could
pose a threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains
uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to
support anything beyond a very isolated/marginal-type severe risk.

..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 202000
SWODY1
SPC AC 201959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this
evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.

...20Z Update...
No changes were made with this update. An upgrade to Slight Risk was
considered for parts of south-central into north-central TX ahead of
the northeast/southwest-oriented band of storms. Here, diurnal
heating has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to
lower 80s amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints -- resulting in a
moderately unstable warm sector. While this instability and around
50 kt of effective shear will conditionally favor embedded supercell structures, current thinking is that deep-layer southwesterly
flow/shear parallel to the larger-scale cold pool will result in
undercutting and training of storms. Therefore, held off on an
upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, damaging gusts, sporadic large
hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible with any
longer-lived storms -- especially any that can form immediately
ahead of the convective band and related cold pool.

..Weinman.. 11/20/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025/

...Southern Plains to Arkansas...
Showers/thunderstorms remain common at late morning with widespread
cloud cover with the warm sector across most of Texas and Oklahoma.
This precedes a mid/upper-level trough currently located over
Arizona/New Mexico and far northern Mexico, which will continue to
eject northeastward toward the southern High Plains. A surface low
will gradually deepen across the south-central High Plains and
develop eastward through the period.

It still seems likely that convection and widespread cloud cover
will persist through the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal
heating and weakening mid-level lapse rates with time. While
enhanced deep-layer shear will remain across the warm sector owing
to persistent strong southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for
organized thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning
convection remains uncertain, particularly in the context of
somewhat stronger low-level winds more likely to interface where
convective overturning has occurred.

Regardless, some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized
multicell clusters will exist this afternoon/evening particularly
across portions of central and possibly into parts of
North/northeast Texas. This includes isolated severe hail and
damaging winds, and a modest enlargement of low-level hodographs
could also support a tornado risk.

Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the
development of additional strong/locally severe storms across
east/southeast New Mexico into west Texas/southwest Oklahoma, in
closer proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could
pose a threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains
uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to
support anything beyond a very isolated/marginal-type severe risk.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210059
SWODY1
SPC AC 210057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...WESTERN/CENTRAL AR...FAR
NORTHWEST LA...

...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or
two remain possible this evening from parts of the southern Plains
into Arkansas.

...Southern Plains into Arkansas...
Multiple areas of convection are ongoing across parts of the
southern Plains this evening, in advance of a mid/upper-level trough
that will continue to eject northeastward tonight. The greatest
remaining severe threat appears to reside from parts of
south-central into northeast TX, where MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg
and strong deep-layer shear remain in place immediately downstream
of ongoing storms. At least transient supercell structures will be
possible through the evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind
and possibly marginal hail. Modest enhancement of low-level
hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2) could support a brief
tornado threat. Some uptick in the damaging-wind threat could occur
with any upscale growth, before convection weakens as it encounters
diminishing buoyancy with eastward extent. See MCD 2216 for more
information regarding the short-term threat in this area.

Some storm redevelopment will be possible late tonight across
central TX, as an initially quasi-stationary boundary begins to move
eastward as a cold front. Buoyancy and deep-layer will remain
sufficient for some storm organization, and an isolated severe
threat could persist across this region overnight.

..Dean.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210602
SWODY1
SPC AC 210600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
MS/AL/TN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into
tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and
northern Alabama.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deamplify and move
quickly eastward from the central Plains toward the Ohio Valley
later today into tonight. In conjunction with this shortwave, a weak
surface low will move eastward from southern MO to near the TN/KY
border, along a diffuse surface boundary. Farther west, a
mid/upper-level cyclone will move southeastward off the coast of
southern CA.

...Parts of the Southeast/TN Valley...
A Marginal Risk has been added across parts of MS/AL/TN. While
modest instability will tend to limit the magnitude of the severe
threat, relatively favorable wind profiles atop seasonably rich
low-level moisture could result in a threat for a brief tornado
and/or locally damaging wind.

Dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will spread northward across parts
of MS/AL/TN later today, in response to the shortwave trough and
weak surface low approaching the Ohio Valley. Morning convection and
remnant cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating, and midlevel
lapse rates will remain weak. However, weak capping will allow for
scattered diurnal storm development from southern/central MS into
western AL. While stronger mid/upper-level flow and large-scale
ascent will be displaced to the north, moderate deep-layer shear and
modest low-level veering of the wind profile could support at least
transient storm organization, with a threat of locally damaging wind
and perhaps a brief tornado.

Farther north into northern MS/AL and parts of TN/far southern KY,
guidance depicts renewed storm development during the evening into
late tonight, aided by the glancing influence of the departing
shortwave trough. Deep-layer flow will remain rather strong across
this region, so an isolated severe threat could evolve if sufficient
recovery and destabilization can occur. If organized convection can
be sustained within this regime, then a threat for a brief tornado
and/or locally damaging wind could develop later tonight.

...Middle/upper TX Gulf Coast...
Isolated to scattered storms will likely be ongoing later this
morning across the TX coastal plain, with some redevelopment
possible later this afternoon or evening along a cold front. While
deep-layer shear will remain somewhat favorable for storm
organization, weakening large-scale ascent and warming temperatures
aloft are currently expected to limit severe potential. If any
organized convection can persist from overnight, and/or if
substantial destabilization can occur along/ahead of the front
during the afternoon, then a few strong storms will be possible.

...Southern California...
Isolated storms will be possible across parts of the Southwest, in
association with the mid/upper-level cyclone. The strongest
instability will remain near and offshore of the southern CA coast,
and low-level flow is expected to generally be weak, but a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially early in the day.

..Dean.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211259
SWODY1
SPC AC 211257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into
tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and
northern Alabama.

...MS/AL/TN/KY...
Early morning water vapor imagery shows broad west-southwesterly
flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the southeast
states. A southern-stream shortwave trough is noted over LA/AR,
which will traverse across the mid-South and TN Valley today.
Multiple areas of precipitation will be present along/ahead of this
feature, with forecast soundings showing weak-but-sufficient CAPE
for a few thunderstorm clusters. Mid-level lapse rates are weak,
suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
forecast hodographs show strong low-level shear today from eastern
MS across parts of AL/Middle TN and southeast KY. This could be
enough for one or two rotating cells capable of a tornado or
damaging wind event. The overall threat appears marginal at this
time.

The primary surface cold front will move into this region after dark
tonight, with another round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the front. Low-level winds are expected to somewhat veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado or two and/or gusty winds will continue.

...Southern CA...
An upper low is centered off the coast of southern CA today, with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing. This trend
will continue through the day, with some risk of a few robust
thunderstorms affecting coastal areas. Onshore instability and
low-level shear are expected to remain weak, suggesting organized
severe storms are unlikely.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211631
SWODY1
SPC AC 211629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN/KY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight
across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern
Alabama and possibly southern Kentucky.

...MS/AL/TN/KY...
A strengthening of deep-layer flow will occur regionally in tandem
with the eastward progression of a low-amplitude shortwave trough
from the Lower Missouri Valley toward the Lower Ohio River Valley
tonight, with height falls remaining limited south of the Tennessee
Valley.

The more organized/sustained scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
will probably remain focused within the warm conveyor from
south-central Mississippi into Alabama. On the south-southwest
periphery of these storms, there will be a gradual northeastward
expansion of the effective warm sector while destabilization will
still remain weaker with eastward extent. Mid-level lapse rates are
weak, suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
strong deep-layer shear and moderately strong low-level shear/SRH,
particularly within the aforementioned corridor, could support a
couple of rotating storms capable of a tornado or damaging wind.

The primary surface cold front will move into this region tonight,
with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to uptick
this evening across the Mid-South including western Tennessee and
northern Mississippi. Low-level winds are expected to veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear/SRH. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado and/or gusty winds will exist.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211944
SWODY1
SPC AC 211942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN/KY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight
across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern
Alabama and possibly southern Kentucky.

...20Z Update...
The Marginal Risk was trimmed slightly in northern/central MS, where
a combination of relatively weaker large-scale forcing for ascent
and poor deep-layer lapse rates/modest buoyancy (see SHV 18Z
sounding) should limit the severe-risk compared to areas farther
north tonight. Elsewhere, widely scattered thunderstorms are
evolving along a southeastward-moving cold front in southeast TX.
PBL destabilization ahead of the front has yielded moderate
surface-based buoyancy (per CRP 18Z sounding). While several warm
layers aloft and modest deep-layer shear (around 30 kt of effective
shear) should limit updraft intensity, a strong storm or two capable
of producing gusty winds cannot be entirely ruled out into this
evening.

..Weinman.. 11/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025/

...MS/AL/TN/KY...
A strengthening of deep-layer flow will occur regionally in tandem
with the eastward progression of a low-amplitude shortwave trough
from the Lower Missouri Valley toward the Lower Ohio River Valley
tonight, with height falls remaining limited south of the Tennessee
Valley.

The more organized/sustained scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
will probably remain focused within the warm conveyor from
south-central Mississippi into Alabama. On the south-southwest
periphery of these storms, there will be a gradual northeastward
expansion of the effective warm sector while destabilization will
still remain weaker with eastward extent. Mid-level lapse rates are
weak, suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
strong deep-layer shear and moderately strong low-level shear/SRH,
particularly within the aforementioned corridor, could support a
couple of rotating storms capable of a tornado or damaging wind.

The primary surface cold front will move into this region tonight,
with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to uptick
this evening across the Mid-South including western Tennessee and
northern Mississippi. Low-level winds are expected to veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear/SRH. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado and/or gusty winds will exist.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220044
SWODY1
SPC AC 220042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across parts of
northern Mississippi and Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Small to
marginal hail or gusty winds may occur.

...Discussion...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue moving out of MO and
across the OH Valley tonight, with cooling aloft eventually
extending southward across the TN Valley. Midlevel winds of 50-70 kt
will be present within the speed max, from the OH River into TN,
resulting in elongated hodographs.

At the surface, low pressure will translate eastward along a
quasi-stationary boundary extending from southern MO/IL into central
KY, though this front will sink south late.

Minimal lift will exist along this boundary, but the ejecting
midlevel wave atop the warm sector with 60s F dewpoints may result
in isolated cells, some possibly reaching severe limits with
marginal hail over northern areas, and/or wind elsewhere. Winds
around 850 mb will be quite veered, with mostly straightline
hodographs, favoring cells.

00Z soundings confirm generally strong deep-layer shear but poor
lapse rates aloft and weak instability. However, areas of lift
overnight may still result in isolated strong storms within the
marginal area.

..Jewell.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220459
SWODY1
SPC AC 220457

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may
occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm
potential appears low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will move across northern Baja CA today, and will
gradually weaken as it moves into AZ by Sunday morning. Cooling
aloft with this system along with midlevel moistening will
eventually result in widespread precipitation over much of AZ and
NM, including a few thunderstorms. Given the elevated nature of the
instability overnight, severe storms are not anticipated.

To the east, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across VA and NC
during the day. Low pressure near the DelMarVa will quickly move out
to sea as a cold front pushes south out of VA and into NC. Here,
residual dewpoints near 60 F along with daytime heating will result
in minimal SBCAPE within a westerly flow regime, possibly supporting
isolated thunderstorms late afternoon or evening. Strong deep-layer
shear will support cellular storm mode, but instability and lapse
rates do not appear to favor severe hail.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221236
SWODY1
SPC AC 221234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may
occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm
potential appears low.

...TX to SE States...
A zonal flow pattern is present today over the eastern half of the
CONUS, with a surface cold front moving across the TN Valley into
the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of
the front from east TX into much of the southeast states today and
tonight, but the risk of severe activity is low.

...Southwest States...
A compact upper low will track eastward across Baja California this
afternoon, with an associated mid-level cold pocket affecting
northwest Mexico and the Four-Corners states. Model guidance agrees
that scattered thunderstorms will affect these areas by late
afternoon and through the evening. A few of the HREF members
indicate some risk of strong storms with small hail and gusty winds
over southeast AZ. However, forecast soundings do not appear
sufficient to warrant severe probabilities at time.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221632
SWODY1
SPC AC 221630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible from the Texas Coast across the
Southeast States. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...South TX/TX Coast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Recent surface analysis places a low just off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front extends west-southwestward from
this low across central VA and middle TN to another low just east of
MEM. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low
across northern MS, central LA, and the TX Coastal Plain. This cold
front is forecast to push eastward/southeastward throughout the day,
and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated within this broad warm
sector that stretches from the TX coast through much of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Poor lapse rates and corresponding
limited buoyancy should keep updrafts weak and transient throughout
much of this region, limiting the severe potential. The only
exception is across south TX, where considerable low-level moisture
(i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) is in place, resulting in greater
buoyancy this afternoon. Even so, this region will be displaced well
south and west of the stronger mid-level flow, with weak shear
likely limiting updraft organization and persistence and tempering
the overall severe potential.

...Southwest...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just off the
northern Baja California coast this morning. This low is forecast to
progress gradually eastward today, with strong mid-level flow
spreading from the base of this low eastward/northeastward across
the Southwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated
ahead of this upper low, spreading from AZ this afternoon and
evening into NM overnight. In general, limited buoyancy should keep
overall thunderstorm strength low, despite strengthen deep-layer
vertical shear. The only exception is across southeast AZ, where
very strong vertical shear could overlap modest buoyancy for a few
hours this evening. Meridional orientation to the shear will favor
line segments and storm interactions, which should limit updraft
organization and the overall severe potential. That being said, a
few stronger storms with small, sub-severe hail and gusty winds are
possible. The overall severe potential is currently forecast to
remain too isolated to include any 5% probabilities.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221948
SWODY1
SPC AC 221946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible from the Texas Coast across the
Southeast States. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast thinking remains the same, and no changes were
warranted with this update. See the previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 11/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025/

...South TX/TX Coast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Recent surface analysis places a low just off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front extends west-southwestward from
this low across central VA and middle TN to another low just east of
MEM. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low
across northern MS, central LA, and the TX Coastal Plain. This cold
front is forecast to push eastward/southeastward throughout the day,
and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated within this broad warm
sector that stretches from the TX coast through much of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Poor lapse rates and corresponding
limited buoyancy should keep updrafts weak and transient throughout
much of this region, limiting the severe potential. The only
exception is across south TX, where considerable low-level moisture
(i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) is in place, resulting in greater
buoyancy this afternoon. Even so, this region will be displaced well
south and west of the stronger mid-level flow, with weak shear
likely limiting updraft organization and persistence and tempering
the overall severe potential.

...Southwest...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just off the
northern Baja California coast this morning. This low is forecast to
progress gradually eastward today, with strong mid-level flow
spreading from the base of this low eastward/northeastward across
the Southwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated
ahead of this upper low, spreading from AZ this afternoon and
evening into NM overnight. In general, limited buoyancy should keep
overall thunderstorm strength low, despite strengthen deep-layer
vertical shear. The only exception is across southeast AZ, where
very strong vertical shear could overlap modest buoyancy for a few
hours this evening. Meridional orientation to the shear will favor
line segments and storm interactions, which should limit updraft
organization and the overall severe potential. That being said, a
few stronger storms with small, sub-severe hail and gusty winds are
possible. The overall severe potential is currently forecast to
remain too isolated to include any 5% probabilities.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230053
SWODY1
SPC AC 230052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly over parts of Arizona
and into New Mexico tonight. Severe weather is not forecast,
although small hail cannot be ruled out.

...Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening ahead of an upper low
moving across northern Baja CA, affecting much of southern into
eastern AZ. Area soundings and objective analysis indicate a few
hundred J/kg MUCAPE is present, though primarily elevated in nature.
All this is occurring within a deep southerly flow regime, with
moderate deep layer shear. Any embedded cellular activity may
produce small hail given cold profiles aloft.

As cooling aloft spreads further into NM overnight, additional rain
and elevated thunderstorms will develop over the area. Forecast
soundings indicate favorable deep-layer shear will persist, with
midlevel moistening above an initially dry boundary layer. Again,
minimal/small hail will be possible given cold air aloft and
favorable shear for cellular storm mode.

..Jewell.. 11/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230536
SWODY1
SPC AC 230534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF WESTERN
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail is possible beginning this afternoon across parts of
west to north-central Texas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will pivot from AZ into CO today, with a midlevel speed
max moving into the southern High Plains. Cooling aloft will persist
across the region throughout the period, leading to steepening lapse
rates aloft.

At the surface, high pressure will maintain relatively cool surface temperatures over the Plains and MS Valley, though 50s F dewpoints
will develop northward into western TX, and near 60 F dewpoints into
central TX by 12Z Monday.

As the upper trough emerges into the plains, large-scale ascent will
move out of NM and into TX and western OK. While the surface air
mass will be cool most areas, elevated instability should be
substantial due to a southerly low-level jet with strong theta-e
advection. Forecast soundings suggest perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE will
be possible, along with favorable effective shear over 40 kt. As
such, elevated convection should strengthen from eastern NM into
western TX, with the greatest severe hail potential over TX where
instability will be strongest. Isolated large hail seems likely
after about 18Z.

Otherwise, there is a conditional threat of an isolated,
surface-based supercell over far western TX in the Pecos/Fort
Stockton area, where a narrow zone of SBCAPE may develop due to
stronger heating. However, it is uncertain if any storms will form
along the weak boundary.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/23/2025

$$

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