ACUS03 KWNS 041912
SWODY3
SPC AC 041911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on
Saturday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Diffuse mid-level troughing over the eastern US is again expected
Saturday as a secondary shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies
and over the Plains. Ahead of the western trough, a lee low will
deepen over parts of the central Plains, north of a stalled front
along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the southeastern US will
weaken as a cool polar air mass slowly modifies.

As the surface low moves south toward the Gulf Coast late Saturday,
weak inland moisture advection is expected over parts of coastal
southeast TX and southern LA into early Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible given the ascent and weak buoyancy that
develops. However, most if not all of the convection should remain
offshore. Thus, while some elevated storms are possible inland, the
severe risk appears low.

..Lyons.. 12/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050745
SWODY3
SPC AC 050744

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild offshore of the
British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while being maintained
across and inland of coastal areas through this period. Downstream
flow may not change appreciably on the larger-scale, but one broad
embedded cyclonic circulation may redevelop southeast of the
Hudson/James Bay vicinity through central Quebec, while a
consolidating perturbation within another stream digs across the central/southern Great Plains toward the Southeast.

The latter feature is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing
cold intrusion across the Gulf coast into northwest Gulf Basin by
late Sunday night. Downstream, a weak low may begin to develop
along the initially stalled/slow moving frontal zone, east of the
Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Forecast soundings indicate that relatively warm layers aloft will
continue to hinder potential for deep convective development over
the interior central and southern peninsula Sunday through Sunday
night. In general, guidance suggests that better coupling of
mid/upper forcing for ascent and higher boundary-layer moisture
content may be confined to areas along/ahead of the front across the northeastern into central Gulf Basin and offshore western Atlantic.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051905
SWODY3
SPC AC 051904

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Within a broad, large-scale trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move
from the southern Great Plains into the Southeast on Sunday. In
response to this system, some low-level moisture return is possible
into parts of the upper TX coast and southern LA, in advance of an
approaching cold front. However, persistent surface ridging will
tend to keep the richer Gulf moisture mostly suppressed offshore.

Early-day elevated convection will be possible across parts of the
Gulf Coast, to the north of the primary baroclinic zone. Convective
showers may develop later in the day across parts of LA and southern
MS along/ahead of the approaching cold front, though forecast
soundings currently suggest that this convection may not be
sufficiently deep for lightning production.

Farther east, thermodynamic profiles may become at least marginally
supportive of thunderstorm development across parts of the FL
Peninsula and Keys. Isolated diurnal storm development cannot be
ruled out near any sea breeze boundaries and a remnant baroclinic
zone across the peninsula, though large-scale forcing will be
limited. Late in the period, thunderstorms over the Gulf may
approach parts of the FL Panhandle and Keys. While some increase in
deep-layer shear is possible with time, generally weak lapse rates
and modest buoyancy are currently expected to limit the
organized-severe threat.

..Dean.. 12/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060748
SWODY3
SPC AC 060747

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that the center of a prominent mid-level vortex emerging
from the Hudson Bay vicinity during the next day or two will
continue redeveloping east-southeastward into and across the
Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity through this period. To the
southwest and south of this feature, broad mid-level troughing is
forecast to be maintained east of the Rockies through the western
Atlantic, as far south as the northern and central Gulf Basin,
downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern
mid-latitude Pacific through Pacific Coast and Intermountain West.

Models indicate some amplification of the mid-level troughing across
the northwestern Gulf coast and Gulf Basin, and perhaps some
downstream suppression of subtropical ridging across the Caribbean
and Bahamas, as a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air
contributes to the southward advancement of the primary cold front
through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf
Basin.

At the same time, it appears that a short wave impulse progressing
through the crest of the larger-scale ridge will contribute to
fairly significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.

...Florida...
It appears that weak forcing for ascent and instability will tend to
limit the risk for thunderstorm development along/ahead the
southward advancing front, but NAM forecast soundings suggest at
least some potential for thunderstorm development near southeast
coastal areas Monday afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061834
SWODY3
SPC AC 061833

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday.
Severe storms are not expected.

...South Florida...

Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on
Monday, through deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will weaken as an
embedded jet streak moves off the East Coast. At the surface, a cold
front will extend across central FL Monday morning, and develop
southward through afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may
be ongoing early in the day and persist southward ahead of the
front. Poor lapse rates/weak instability and generally modest
surface to 700 mb westerly flow will preclude severe thunderstorm
potential.

..Leitman.. 12/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070716
SWODY3
SPC AC 070714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate little substantive change to the
large-scale mid/upper flow impacting the U.S. through this period.
Broad ridging is likely to persist across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific into the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies, with
downstream troughing east of the Rockies through the Atlantic
Seaboard and western Atlantic. The troughing is likely to be
reinforced by another significant short wave perturbation, digging
within northwesterly flow to the lee of the crest of the ridge.

It appears that this will be accompanied by a rapidly migrating
cyclone across the northern Great Plains through much of the upper
Great Lakes region by late tonight. In the wake of this feature,
models indicate an increasingly significant intrusion of cold air
will begin to surge southward into parts of the northern Great
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, preceded by strengthening flow
veering to an increasing westerly component as far south as the Gulf
coast vicinity.

Even as the Gulf boundary layer begins to modify to the north of a
stalling and weakening front, south of the Florida Peninsula through
the southern Gulf Basin, appreciable inland moisture is unlikely
through this period and beyond.

..Kerr.. 12/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071900
SWODY3
SPC AC 071858

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity is not expected across the Lower 48 on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A broad swath of west to northwesterly flow will overspread the
CONUS on Tuesday. An upper shortwave trough will deepen as it
spreads east from the northern Rockies into the Midwest. A prior
cold front passage offshore into the Gulf and western Atlantic will
result in a dry and stable airmass. This will preclude thunderstorm
potential despite a deepening surface low and cold front spreading
across the Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity.

..Leitman.. 12/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080727
SWODY3
SPC AC 080727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that an increasingly prominent high may build once
again across and north of the Aleutians vicinity, but it appears
that there will be little change to the downstream flow across the
mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North America, through at
least this period. Downstream, there is substantive spread in the
model output concerning the subsequent evolution of short wave
troughing initially digging across the Midwest at the outset of the
period, and another notable perturbation digging toward the Great
Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity.
Regardless, larger-scale mid/upper troughing to the east of the
Rockies will be reinforced, and related surface developments are not
likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only
be gradually underway.

..Kerr.. 12/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081927
SWODY3
SPC AC 081926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough moves from the Midwest/Great Lakes towards the Mid Atlantic/New England. A deep
surface cyclone will move from the eastern Great Lakes toward
northern New England, as a cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley
and Northeast.

Gulf moisture will remain suppressed through the period, resulting
in dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm
potential across the CONUS. Some weak buoyancy may develop over far
south FL and the Keys, though potential for deep convection will be
limited by weak ascent and dry air aloft. Gusty showers will be
possible from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, in
association with the surface cyclone and cold front, but buoyancy is
forecast to remain negligible across these regions.

..Dean.. 12/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090743
SWODY3
SPC AC 090742

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent, blocking high building near
and to the north of the Aleutians during this period, models
indicate that strong flow will take on an increasing northwesterly
component across southern British Columbia and adjacent portions of
the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains. It appears that a significant short
wave trough near the leading edge of this regime will begin to
reinforce broad mid-level troughing extending downstream into the
western Atlantic.

While mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as
the Gulf Coast states into the southern mid- to subtropical
latitudes of the western Atlantic, heights across the south are
forecast to begin to rise, as a prominent perturbation accelerates
rapidly east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the
Canadian Maritimes.

The primary surface front, trailing an evolving cyclone across the
Canadian Maritimes, may stall across the southern Atlantic coast
through Tennessee Valley, while progressing slowly southward through
the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains by late Thursday
night, in advance of much colder air beginning to nose southward to
the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies.

As a remnant preceding front becomes more diffuse across the central
through northwestern Gulf Basin, Gulf boundary-layer modification
may gradually continue, as a weak southerly return flow begins to
develop across the Texas coast. However, beneath relatively warm
and dry lower/mid-levels, it does not appears that this will
contribute to appreciable destabilization during this period.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091849
SWODY3
SPC AC 091848

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Thursday through
Thursday night.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of multiple cold frontal intrusions across the central
and eastern CONUS, generally dry and stable conditions are expected
on Thursday, with negligible thunderstorm potential. Early-stage
moisture return may commence across parts of Deep South TX and the
adjacent coastal plain, but in the absence of any appreciable
ascent, deep convection is not expected through the end of the
period.

..Dean.. 12/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100727
SWODY3
SPC AC 100726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night, aside from some possible weak
thunderstorm activity near Texas coastal areas prior to daybreak
Saturday.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of
the Aleutians, it appears that the evolving flow may include a short
wave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific
Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave
troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level
troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great
Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the
persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies will continue
to lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient
tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of
colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the
Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday
night.

In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern
periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern
Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the
northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath
this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening
will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to
develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is
possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become
conducive to weak thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 12/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101830
SWODY3
SPC AC 101829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper ridge over the eastern Pacific will meander east
through the forecast period while broad upper troughing persists
across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a weak low over the Ohio
Valley Friday morning will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast late
Friday night/early Saturday morning. A trailing cold front will
develop south across TX and the Lower MS Valley. While modest
boundary layer moisture will reside across the TX coastal plain, any appreciable instability will remain offshore over the western Gulf.
A few thunderstorms could occur late in the forecast period
offshore, but any lighting activity along the coast and immediately
inland should remain limited.

..Leitman.. 12/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110733
SWODY3
SPC AC 110732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered, mostly weak, thunderstorm activity is possible across the
Gulf Coast states Saturday into Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the blocking high will generally maintain
strength just to the north of Aleutians through this period. The
evolution of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone to its east, across
the northeastern Pacific, is more unclear, but guidance indicates
that a downstream ridge will broaden eastward, inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast through the southern Canadian
Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Farther east, it still
appears that a vigorous digging short wave trough will once again
contribute to larger-scale mid-level trough amplification across the
Upper Midwest into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday through
Saturday night.

An increasingly confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of the
amplifying trough, is forecast to support the southeastward
development of an expanding cold surface ridge to the east of the
Rockies, across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley
through western slopes of the Appalachians. By late Saturday night,
a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone, near the leading edge of
the colder air, is forecast to approach southern Mid Atlantic
through Gulf coastal areas.

In lower latitudes, beneath a weak branch of westerlies emanating
from the subtropical eastern Pacific, a remnant preceding surface
frontal zone may shift northward across the Florida Keys and
southern peninsula by 12Z Sunday, downstream of broad mid-level
troughing overspreading the Gulf Basin.

...Gulf Coast states...
Although weak lapse rates and rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric
wind fields seem likely to minimize the risk for severe weather, a
substantive increase in boundary-layer moisture, in the presence of
increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, may support increasing
scattered thunderstorm development along the front, near the Florida
Keys and southern peninsula, by late Saturday night.

Elsewhere, guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorm development
is possible near/offshore of lower through middle Texas coastal
areas, at least early Saturday. Farther northeast, a narrow plume
of elevated moisture return, off the modifying northwestern Gulf
boundary layer, might contribute to weak destabilization sufficient
for convection capable of producing lightning, mainly just ahead of
the front as it approaches the Gulf coast late Saturday night.

..Kerr.. 12/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111900
SWODY3
SPC AC 111859

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across near South
Florida and the Keys Saturday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deepen as the western
upper ridging moves inland through the forecast period on Saturday.
A surface boundary extending along the western and central Gulf
coast vicinity will move offshore by the end of the period. Weak
warm advection and some modestly increasing midlevel westerly flow
in the vicinity of this boundary may support isolated showers from
the TX coast into portions of the central Gulf coast. However,
forecast soundings indicate minimal instability (100-200 J/kg
MUCAPE), largely stunted by warm midlevel temperatures. While
shallow convection is possible, lightning appears unlikely.

The exception may be across far southern FL and the Keys late in the
period where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place. This
will support greater instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) amid
modest vertical shear ahead of the upper trough. A few thunderstorms
may approach the Keys and South FL coast in the 08-12z time frame.

..Leitman.. 12/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120812
SWODY3
SPC AC 120811

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will advance from the Great Lakes to the western
Atlantic on Sunday. To the west, a ridge will remain centered across
the western CONUS. On the eastern periphery of this ridge, a
secondary mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Upper
Midwest. A very strong (1040mb+) area of high pressure will build
into the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS Sunday and push a strong cold
front into the Gulf by Sunday evening.

...South Florida...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will approach the west coast of
Florida on Sunday morning. As this trough advances east, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across far south
Florida. Weak lapse rates should limit storm intensity overall.
Storms should wane by the evening as the boundary layer cools and
northerly flow strengthens and brings cooler, drier air by Sunday
night.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121845
SWODY3
SPC AC 121844

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will move across the eastern CONUS and offshore the
Atlantic coast Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong
high pressure will continue to build south and east from the Mid-MO
Valley to the TN Valley. As this occurs, a weak cold front will move
southeast across GA/SC and FL. Richer boundary layer moisture will
remain confined to South FL and the Keys where showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity may
persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time. Weak
instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe
thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 12/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130718
SWODY3
SPC AC 130717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
Strong high pressure will dominate much of the eastern 2/3rds of the
CONUS on Monday with strong offshore flow into the Atlantic and the
Gulf, pushing rich moisture well offshore. Therefore, thunderstorm
activity is not expected across much of the CONUS. The only
exception may be across the Pacific Northwest coast where some weak
instability may develop. However, even within this area, lightning
activity should remain limited due to relatively warm air aloft.

..Bentley.. 12/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131920
SWODY3
SPC AC 131919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build over much of the central and eastern CONUS
as a mid-level trough de-amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on
Monday. Surface high pressure will sweep across much of the southern
and eastern CONUS with a statically stable airmass, while a cold
and/or dry surface airmass encompasses much of the Plains into the
Interior West. As a result, thunderstorm development should be
negligible over most of the CONUS. The one exception may be over
portions of the Pacific Northwest Coastline. Here, the de-amplifying
ridge will aid in the advection of colder temperatures atop a marine
boundary layer. Given at least modest forcing for ascent and scant
buoyancy, a few lightning flashes may occur.

..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140829
SWODY3
SPC AC 140828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
As high pressure moves from the Southeast into the Atlantic, and
weak lee troughing develops across the High Plains, southerly return
flow returns across the Plains on Tuesday. Some showers may develop
within weak isentropic ascent across east Texas on Tuesday night,
but most guidance shows minimal instability until after 12Z
Wednesday. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected.

Thunderstorms are possible in western Washington and far northwest
Oregon on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong mid-level trough
approaches the coast. Weak instability is expected during the
afternoon, but most forecast soundings suggest the equilibrium level
will be too low for charge separation which may keep any lightning
potential isolated. However, by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday,
as cold air aloft overspreads the region, sufficiently deep
instability is expected for lightning across western Washington and
perhaps into northwest Oregon. During this time, more frequent
lightning may be possible with a line of convection along the
surface front.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141907
SWODY3
SPC AC 141907

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms
also possible over the Texas Coast Plain early Wednesday morning.

...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the northern
CONUS on Tuesday, resulting in pronounced surface troughs becoming
established across the Pacific Northwest and the central CONUS.
Cooler temperatures aloft will overspread the northern OR and WA
coastline, resulting in scant buoyancy amid deep-layer ascent to
support a few lightning flashes during the day Tuesday. A warm-air
advection regime should develop along the western Gulf Coast in
response to the glancing mid-level trough to the north, resulting in
the onset of moisture return. Elevated buoyancy should develop
within the warm-air advection regime after 06Z Wednesday morning,
which may support isolated thunderstorm development across the TX
Coastal Plain.

..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150816
SWODY3
SPC AC 150815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early
Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak and associated shortwave trough over
the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday morning will move quickly across
the Rockies and amplify as it enters the Plains late Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. A very strong surface low, associated with
this fast-moving trough, will move from British Columbia Wednesday
morning to the Upper Midwest by early Thursday morning.

A few thunderstorms may persist early Wednesday within a region of
weak isentropic ascent across East Texas. However, as the low-level
jet veers/weakens, this threat is expected to wane. High pressure
will continue to dominate much of the daytime period across the
eastern CONUS which should limit any thunderstorm potential.
However, by Wednesday night, thunderstorm potential is expected to
increase from the Texas Coastal Plain to the Lower Ohio River
Valley. As the mid-level trough amplifies across the Plains, a
low-level jet will rapidly strengthen from East Texas to the Ozarks.
This will advect low-level moisture northward during the evening.
After 06Z, weak to potentially moderate elevated instability is
expected within a broad region of weak isentropic ascent from
Arkansas to southern Illinois. Effective shear (based on an elevated
parcel) is expected to remain very weak early Thursday morning as
the primary mid-level jet streak is not forecast to emerge over the
warm sector until later Thursday morning. Therefore, no severe
weather is anticipated on Day 3/Wednesday.

..Bentley.. 12/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151932
SWODY3
SPC AC 151931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early
Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the north-central
CONUS on Wednesday, prompting the rapid eastward progression of a
990 mb surface low along the U.S./Canada border. A trailing cold
front will extend from the surface low to the Rockies, preceded by
surface troughing and associated southerly moisture return from the
western Gulf. Low-level warm-air advection should take place across
eastern TX to the Ozarks through the day Wednesday, promoting
marginal buoyancy amid some synoptic ascent attributed to surface
troughing. By early Thursday morning, enough buoyancy should be in
place for the development of isolated thunderstorms across the
Sabine River Valley into the Ozarks.

..Squitieri.. 12/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160830
SWODY3
SPC AC 160829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the mid-level
trough across the central Plains early Thursday and emerge across
the Ohio Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will
continue east and take on a more neutral to perhaps negative tilt by
early Friday across the East Coast. A strong (sub 990mb) surface low
will move from the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec with a trailing
cold front sweeping from the Midwest to the East Coast.

...OH/TN Valleys...
A line of convection will likely be in its infancy along the cold
front in Illinois and Missouri at the beginning of the period.
Low-level moisture will continue to advect north ahead of this cold
front and result in some weak destabilization. The mid-50s dewpoints
will likely struggle to make it north of the Ohio River given the
snowpack across the region, despite very strong low-level moisture
advection. However, south of this snowpack there will likely be a
zone where the strong forcing along the cold front can overcome only
marginally unstable surface parcels. This strongly forced convective
line amid 60-70 knots of background flow (as low as 1km) will
support isolated damaging wind gusts through the afternoon.

Greater instability is expected south of the TN/MS/AL border where
upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast. However, despite the
more favorable thermodynamics, the upper-level forcing will be
weaker. Therefore, it is unclear whether the line of storms will
continue that far south, and additional convection ahead of the
front will likely struggle given the weak lapse rates/minimal
heating.

...Eastern Virginia into North Carolina...
Late in the period, as the cold front crosses the Appalachians,
moisture is expected to advect inland across eastern North Carolina
and eastern Virginia. A strong wind field will continue across the
region, and if sufficient instability can develop, a damaging wind
threat could materialize early Friday morning. However, the degree
of destabilization remains uncertain and will depend on how quickly
the cold air damming can erode. A solution such as the 00Z NAM (with
60F dewpoints into the DelMarva) would certainly result in some
threat, but most other guidance keeps dewpoints in the mid 50s with
minimal instability. Trends will be monitored closely in this region
in later outlooks and probabilities may be added if the forecast
trends towards greater instability.

..Bentley.. 12/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161925
SWODY3
SPC AC 161924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A powerful upper trough will move from the Plains into the MS Valley
on Thursday, taking on a negative tilt late in the period as it
moves across the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. Strong
cooling aloft will occur with the greatest large-scale ascent across
the OH and TN Valleys.

At the surface, low pressure will move from Upper MI eastward into
southwest Quebec, with a cold front trailing south of the low and
reaching the northern Gulf of America overnight.

Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as
far north as the OH River, with lower 60s F possible near the
ArkLaMiss. Substantial clouds and areas of precipitation will limit
heating over most of the area, and SBCAPE will be quite low.
However, lift immediately along the cold front should at least
result in a low-topped forced line of convection. SBCAPE will be low
even south of I-40, despite higher dewpoints as temperatures aloft
will be warmer.

Despite these mitigating issues, favorable large-scale ascent during
the daytime along with at least marginal instability and strong flow
off the surface may yield locally strong to damaging gusts with
activity along the cold front.

..Jewell.. 12/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170822
SWODY3
SPC AC 170821

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected along the East Coast Friday morning and
in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday night.

...Discussion...
A strong cold front will be moving quickly eastward Friday morning
with a shallow convective band along the front. A few stronger
storms are possible as the front interacts with slightly greater moisture/instability near the coast. However, it is unclear whether
storms will intensify before they move offshore. The best potential
for a few stronger cells with some gusty winds will be across
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina.

In the wake of this cold front, cool/dry conditions associated with
a surface high will bring dry conditions to much of the eastern
CONUS. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the Pacific
Northwest as temperatures cool aloft.

..Bentley.. 12/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171928
SWODY3
SPC AC 171927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night.

...Discussion...
A deep upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the
Northeast, with a strong cold front moving across New England and
the Mid Atlantic during the day. Widespread precipitation and clouds
are likely within the pre-frontal warm advection regime, and this
will limit heating and destabilization. Sporadic lightning flashes
are possible within the strongly forced shallow convective line
and/or with elevated pre-frontal convective elements.

..Jewell.. 12/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180828
SWODY3
SPC AC 180827

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and
far northwest Oregon on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak over the northern Plains Saturday
morning will move east as a mid-level trough amplifies across the
Great Lakes. As this occurs, a surface cold front will move from the
Plains Saturday morning to near the Appalachians and extending back
into East Texas by early Sunday morning.

...East Texas into Louisiana...
Low-level moisture return will bring low to mid 60s dewpoints
northward across East Texas and Louisiana on Saturday and Saturday
evening. Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to
develop. However forcing will be minimal with rising heights aloft
and a weakening low-level jet. In addition, forecast soundings show
warm mid-level temperatures which will likely keep the airmass
capped. Therefore, thunderstorms are not expected across East Texas
and Louisiana on Saturday night/early Sunday.

...Pacific Northwest..
Persistent onshore flow with cool temperatures aloft will result in
persistent convective activity across western Washington and
northwest Oregon on Saturday. Forecast soundings show weak
instability and equilibrium levels near or slightly above -20C which
may support some isolated thunderstorms.

..Bentley.. 12/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181913
SWODY3
SPC AC 181912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Oregon and
northern California late Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will develop from the central
into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, with an upper trough amplifying
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Gradual height rises
will occur over the West, with weak flow aloft across the southern
tier of states. Late in the period into Sunday morning, height falls
will begin across the Pacific Northwest with an approaching wave.

At the surface, high pressure will exist along the East Coast with
southerly winds across the western Gulf and into the southern
Plains. While some degree of low-level moisture return will occur,
another cold front will push south across the Plains behind the
developing Great Lakes system. As a result, any instability over
coastal TX/LA should remain capped.

Chances for thunderstorms will develop late in the period across the
Pacific Northwest as a plume of midlevel moisture arrives out of the
west. This moistening and warming in the 850-700 mb layer will
result in weak elevated instability sufficient for isolated
lightning.

..Jewell.. 12/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190829
SWODY3
SPC AC 190828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized areas of thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the Northeast U.S./Quebec Province will
move east on Sunday, as an upstream upper trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest coast. A surface cold front will move across the eastern/southeast U.S. as an expansive high pressure system becomes
established behind the front.

Generally weak buoyancy may develop near the TX and LA coastal areas
where heating of 60s surface dew points takes place, however little
in the way of large-scale ascent is expected in this region. Thus,
while an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the lower MS
Valley in the vicinity of the front, the overall potential for
thunderstorms appears too limited for the introduction of a 10
percent area with this outlook.

..Bunting.. 12/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191924
SWODY3
SPC AC 191923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm activity is expected on Sunday across the USA.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will move across the Northeast on Sunday, with
generally zonal flow extending to the west. At the surface, high
pressure will move eastward across the Midwest during day, and
toward the Mid Atlantic by Monday morning. As result of the dry air
mass, stable conditions will be prevalent over much of the central
and eastern CONUS.

To the west, a weak midlevel feature will approach the Pacific
Northwest with cooling aloft as a cold front approaches the WA/OR
Coast around 00Z. Little if any instability is forecast to be
present except primarily over the ocean. Farther south, southwest
flow with midlevel moisture and lift will be prevalent across much
of northern CA, and weak elevated instability is forecast by some of
the models. However, overall thunderstorm/lightning coverage will
likely be quite low.

..Jewell.. 12/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200727
SWODY3
SPC AC 200726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
The large-scale pattern will undergo modest amplification on Monday
via additional upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and
northern Mexico. As a surface high continues to transition
east-southeastward along the Eastern Seaboard/Southeast, moderate
low-level moistening will occur north-northeastward across
Louisiana/eastern half of Texas toward the ArkLaTex. A few
thunderstorms could occur within this warm/moist advection regime,
but it currently appears that upper ridging and related mid-level
capping should considerably limit thunderstorm potential. In the
Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes could occur near coastal
Washington, but this potential should remain limited/isolated while
also trending less thermodynamically favorable by late in the day.

..Guyer.. 12/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201922
SWODY3
SPC AC 201921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the CONUS on
Monday. A compact, moderately strong shortwave trough will move into
the Pacific Northwest by mid/late afternoon. As the surface high
continues to move south and east through the Mid-Atlantic, moisture
return will occur in the western/central Gulf Coast regions. Very
isolated thunderstorm activity could occur near the Texas Gulf
Coast, but this potential should be quite limited given ridging
aloft and weak low-level forcing. Within the coastal Northwest, cold temperatures aloft are expected to support isolated, low-topped
thunderstorm activity late afternoon into early evening.

..Wendt.. 12/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210809
SWODY3
SPC AC 210809

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A dominant mid- to upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across
central portion of the Lower 48 states. An upper trough will
encroach on the West Coast, and a lead mid-level trough will move
quickly northeast from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA
coastal area late Tuesday night. Scant to weak buoyancy will
gradually develop Tuesday night in the vicinity of the CA coast and
coastal range from near Point Conception to near the OR border.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually spread
inland concurrent with increasing large-scale forcing and
instability. Some forecast soundings depict a deep,
lower-tropospheric moist layer co-located with intense low-level
shear, which could imply storm organization being possible with the
strongest low-topped storms. Uncertainty is high at this time for
such a scenario given appreciable model variability. Farther east,
a weak upper trough near the lower Rio Grande Valley will undercut a
mid- to upper-level ridge over the central US. Weak convection is
possible in association with this upper feature, but confidence in
attaining 10-percent thunderstorm probabilities is low at this time.

..Smith.. 12/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211925
SWODY3
SPC AC 211924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...California...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern Pacific, a
mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet will overspread much
of northern/central CA Tuesday through Tuesday night. An attendant
surface low is forecast to develop northward along/near the coast of northern/central CA late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will be present over this
region owing to strengthening flow aloft with the approaching
shortwave trough. However, considerable uncertainty still exists
regarding the depth/quality of low-level moisture and whether enough instability will exist to support a meaningful change for
surface-based thunderstorms given the unfavorable time of night and
generally modest lapse rates.

Some of the more aggressive guidance (12Z RRFS) suggests that weak
but sufficient MLCAPE may develop late Tuesday into early Wednesday
to support some threat for strong/gusty winds with thunderstorms as
mid-level temperatures gradually cool with the shortwave trough
overspreading the CA Coast. Based on a consensus of other available
guidance, this potential still appears a bit too
uncertain/conditional to include low severe probabilities along the
CA Coast at this time. Regardless, the chance for elevated
convection remains apparent, and the general thunderstorm area has
been expanded across more of CA with this update.

..Gleason.. 12/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220829
SWODY3
SPC AC 220828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA
CENTRAL VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of California.

...California...
An upper trough over the eastern Pacific and upper ridge over the
Great Plains will maintain a belt of strong to intense cyclonic flow
across CA north-northeastward into the Interior West. A lead
shortwave trough will move from the OR/CA border northward into WA
during the day, while an upstream disturbance moves from the eastern
Pacific northeastward into central and northern CA after dark. A
prolonged period of scattered showers and episodic periods of
isolated thunderstorms are forecast across CA on Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures (-20 to -24
deg C at 500 mb) will aid in the development of weak instability
during the afternoon across portions of the central valley.
Elongated hodographs coupled with the potential for a short-duration
period of modest surface-based destabilization could yield an
isolated risk for a couple of weakly rotating storms. A risk for
localized squalls moving inland near the immediate coast from parts
of southern into central CA may focus primarily late Wednesday into
Wednesday night ahead of the approaching disturbance.

Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will prevail across much of the
CONUS.

..Smith.. 12/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221928
SWODY3
SPC AC 221927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of California.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper ridge will remain anchored over the central and
eastern US while strong troughing persists over the West Coast. A
series of embedded impulses will move onshore Wednesday and
Wednesday night, coincident with their attendant deepening surface
lows. A cold front and persistent southwesterly low-level flow
should support isolated thunderstorms over much of the West Coast
through early Thursday.

...California...
As troughing deepens over the eastern Pacific, several embedded
disturbances will propagate eastward overspreading modest low-level
moisture from the CA coast to the central valley. Robust forcing for
ascent and cold temperatures aloft (-24 to -26 C) overspreading 50s
F dewpoints will likely support weak buoyancy along the southern CA
coast and central Valley. A prolonged period of scattered showers
and episodic periods of isolated thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday morning and afternoon. Of these storms, sufficient CAPE,
strong flow aloft and locally enlarged hodographs may allow for a
few semi-organized/weakly rotating storms to mature. Sporadic
damaging gusts, small hail and a brief tornado would be possible
with the strongest storms before convection weakens into the evening
and first part of the overnight hours.

Additional low-topped linear storms/localized squalls are also
possible ahead of the advancing cold front near the immediate
coastal portions of central and northern CA primarily late Wednesday
into Wednesday night. A few strong gusts are possible, though
instability should quickly decrease inland.

Elsewhere across the US, the prominent ridging will favor dry and
unseasonably warm conditions with little potential for
thunderstorms.

..Lyons.. 12/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230816
SWODY3
SPC AC 230815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central and
southern California Coast.

...California...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move slowly eastward toward the
California coast on Thursday. Strong flow aloft will maintain a
stream of mid-level moisture into the region, as large-scale ascent
continues to support scattered thunderstorm development. At the
surface, a cold front will approach the central California coast
during the day. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the
50s F, southward into parts of southern California. This should be
enough for weak destabilization near the coast during the late
morning and afternoon, which could result in a marginal severe
threat. Strong low to mid-level flow and modestly steep low-level
lapse rates could support isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado.

..Broyles.. 12/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231923
SWODY3
SPC AC 231922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central and
southern California Coast.

...California...
Large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist across the CA
coast and move onshore Thursday and Thursday night. Within the
broader trough, several embedded impulses will move onshore within
strong southwesterly mid-level flow. One of these stronger impulses
will start the day moving onshore over northern CA before quickly
lifting north into southern OR. A strong surface low and cold front
associated with this impulse will move quickly toward the coast
prior to 12z Thursday. A band of low-topped storms along the front
may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and persist for
a few hours Thursday morning. Confidence in sufficient buoyancy for
a sustained severe threat farther inland is low. Still, strong low
to mid-level flow and modestly steep low-level lapse rates could
support isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado early
along the coast.

The severe threat will likely shift southeastward toward southern CA
coast through the day as a second mid-level impulse and the main
core of the upper trough approach. Strong onshore flow and
persistent low-level moisture transport will allow for weak
destabilization near the coast during the afternoon and continuing
into the evening. 90+ kt of mid-level flow and locally enlarged
hodographs could allow for occasional stronger storms capable of
damaging gusts or a brief tornado despite the weak buoyancy.

..Lyons.. 12/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240831
SWODY3
SPC AC 240830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe storms are expected to develop across the continental U.S.
on Friday or Friday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. on
Friday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the Northeast. A few
storms may form ahead of the trough Friday afternoon and evening
across parts of the central Appalachians. Out west, a trough will
move inland across the Pacific Northwest, with southwesterly flow
being in place across the Intermountain West. Isolated storms will
be possible across parts of California and in the Intermountain
West. No severe threat is expected to develop Friday or Friday
night.

..Broyles.. 12/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241921
SWODY3
SPC AC 241920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or
Friday night.

...Synopsis...
An expansive upper ridge centered over the Plains States will begin
to weaken as it moves eastward Friday. Flow aloft will become
increasingly zonal as broad troughing over the West Coast moves
inland. With continued moisture transport and southwesterly flow in
place over much of the West, isolated storms could be ongoing across
parts of the West Coast and southern CA early. However, little to no
severe threat is expected given the weak buoyancy. Troughing is
forecast to move farther inland quickly, limiting the thunderstorm
threat Friday and Friday night.

...Upper OH Valley...
A secondary low-amplitude upper trough will develop over the
northeastern US late Friday. As it moves southeastward, a weak,
clipper-style, surface low will deepen across the upper OH Valley
and central Appalachians. Cool mid-level temperatures and modest
low-level moisture ahead of the low and trailing cold front could
support weak elevated buoyancy into early Saturday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible into early Saturday. However, with less
than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, severe storms appear unlikely.

..Lyons.. 12/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250816
SWODY3
SPC AC 250815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys on Saturday, as a trough moves through the
Intermountain West. Thunderstorms will be possible, mainly Saturday
night within anticyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow from the
southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. Additional storms may form
along the lower to middle Texas coast.

..Broyles.. 12/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251928
SWODY3
SPC AC 251927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday or
Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will continue to deamplify Saturday as a broad
Pacific trough ejects over the central CONUS. A positive-tilt lead
shortwave will move over the southern/central Plains and into the
Midwest Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, while several other
perturbations coalesce over the Rockies. A lee low and increasing
low-level warm advection/moisture transport should allow for weak
elevated destabilization overnight Saturday into early Sunday from
the Plains States to the lower OH Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop along a stalled frontal zone over KS/OK, spreading east
northeastward overnight. Additional storms may form along the lower
to middle Texas coast. With only weak buoyancy for elevated
thunderstorms and modest deep-layer shear overlap, severe potential
appears negligible.

..Lyons.. 12/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260812
SWODY3
SPC AC 260811

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO
TN/KY/OH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday into Sunday
night from Arkansas and Missouri into parts of the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.

...MO/AR to TN/KY/OH...
Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of
an upper trough, as it progresses from the High Plains to the
North-Central States. This will induce deepening of a surface
cyclone from near the Ozarks to the eastern Great Lakes. Attendant
cold front will accelerate on Sunday night as it quickly moves east
across the OH Valley and south into the Northwest Gulf.

Isolated to scattered elevated convection within the strengthening
low-level warm conveyor should persist, yielding a northern limiter
to potential severe thunderstorms later in the day through Sunday
night. Outside of the likely too cool/stable 00Z NAM, bulk of
preferred guidance suggest weak surface-based destabilization may
occur as a broad plume of upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints
becomes established ahead of the front and deepening cyclone. Richer boundary-layer moisture with at least mid 60s surface dewpoints
should largely hold over the Lower MS Valley and Deep South.

Late afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the Mid-MS
Valley/Ozarks vicinity. Amid broadening large-scale ascent, upscale
growth into a thin but long QLCS seems plausible along the front
given the orientation of the deep-layer winds. Despite only minimal
to meager surface-based instability on Sunday night, intensifying
wind fields throughout the troposphere could support a convective
line with/without lightning. This may yield a threat of sporadic
strong to severe gusts producing at least isolated damaging winds.

..Grams.. 12/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261931
SWODY3
SPC AC 261930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday night
from the Southern Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio and Mid
Mississippi Valleys.

...Mid MS to the OH Valleys...
An initially broad and multi-faceted positive-tilt upper trough over
the central US is forecast to undergo substantial amplification as
it moves eastward toward the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night.
The corresponding surface low will quickly intensify as it moves
eastward from KS/MO across northern IL. A trailing cold front will
also strengthen, with low-level moisture transport ahead of the
front (50s and 60s F surface dewpoints) aiding in modest
destabilization Sunday evening.

Elevated convection is likely to be ongoing over the MO valley
vicinity early in the period associated with the strong low-level
theta-E advection. This convection may remain elevated for much of
the day as it tracks along a stalled frontal zone from northern
MO/IL vicinity eastward into OH/IN and southern lower MI. Still,
some elements may eventually become near-surface based with weak
MUCAPE (100-200 J/kg) potentially supporting a few stronger gusts
near the surface.

Additional surface-based storms will likely develop within the
moistening warm sector over the northern Ozarks and mid MS valley
late Sunday afternoon. A low-topped convective band could organize
along the front as it moves east/southeast from the MS/OH Valleys
toward the northern Gulf Coast. As the trough and surface low
deepen, flow aloft will also increase. A strong (45-55+ kt)
low-level jet will develop from the Mid South to the southern Great
Lakes, rapidly strengthening low and mid-level shear profiles. While
buoyancy will be marginal (250-500 J/kg MUCAPE), this should be
sufficient for stronger linear segments to organize along the
surging cold front. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado or two are possible as the line moves quickly eastward over
the Mid MS and eventually the OH Valley Sunday night.

..Lyons.. 12/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270746
SWODY3
SPC AC 270745

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.

...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone over Lake Huron at 12Z Monday should
gradually fill as it occludes and tracks into southern QC. Secondary cyclogenesis should occur over ME into the Canadian Maritimes. The
surface warm-moist sector will be confined to the Southeast, up to
near the VA Tidewater, ahead of a progressive cold front. Guidance
is consistent with negligible instability along/ahead of the front,
which should clear all but the FL Peninsula by late afternoon and
then shift entirely offshore Monday night. Shallow convection is
possible along portions of the front, with thunderstorm
probabilities appearing to be less than 10 percent.

..Grams.. 12/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271920
SWODY3
SPC AC 271919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will be
maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest into
portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains Monday
through Monday night, but with little further amplification. At the
same time, some further amplification of large-scale downstream
troughing may continue, as a surface cold intrusion noses through
the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, the primary embedded short
wave perturbation and associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are
generally forecast to progress northeast and east of the lower Great
Lakes region, toward the Canadian Maritimes.

In the wake of a secondary developing surface low, across parts of
northern New England into the lower St. Lawrence Valley, the leading
edge of the cold air is forecast to rapidly spread east/southeast of
the Appalachians and well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard
by late Monday night. Along this frontal zone, models do indicate
the lingering presence of weak, elevated instability across parts of
Deep South Texas, the northeastern Gulf coast vicinity, and the
northern Mid Atlantic into New England early through midday Monday.
However, the extent to which forcing for ascent remains supportive
of convection capable of producing lightning remains unclear, and
thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10
percent.

..Kerr.. 12/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280643
SWODY3
SPC AC 280642

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.

..Grams.. 12/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281845
SWODY3
SPC AC 281844

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the
U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the center of a broad and still deepening
cyclone will migrate north-northwest of the St. Lawrence Valley,
toward the southern Hudson Bay vicinity through this period. At
mid-levels, it appears that the broadening circulation will be
reinforced by a vigorous short wave perturbation digging from the
higher latitudes. Surrounding this low, cyclonic flow will likely
encompass most areas east of the Rockies through the offshore
western Atlantic, with some further amplification across the Gulf
Basin into the Caribbean and Bahamas. Beneath this regime, cool
surface ridging entrenched across much of the southern Great Plains,
Gulf Coast and Gulf Basin is forecast to only slowly begin to
weaken.

Upstream, a cyclonic circulation over the subtropical eastern
Pacific may gradually begin to consolidate in advance of more
notable short wave troughing digging across the mid-latitude eastern
Pacific. However, a substantive northeastward acceleration of the
low toward the California coast appears unlikely through at least
early Wednesday, and mid-level ridging will generally be maintained
across much of the interior West. While lower/mid-tropospheric
moisture return emanating from the lower latitude eastern Pacific
may overspread portions of the Southwest into Great Basin, it is
still not clear that this will yield sufficient destabilization to
support convection capable of producing lightning (although NAM
forecast soundings around the Las Vegas, NV vicinity late Tuesday evening/overnight suggest that this might not be completely out of
the question).

..Kerr.. 12/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290635
SWODY3
SPC AC 290634

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning along coastal southern California.

...Southern CA...
A retrograding cutoff low currently near the central/southern CA
coast is consistently progged to eject back northeastward as a
shortwave trough towards the southern CA coast on Wednesday night.
Ahead of this trough, sufficient 850-700 mb moisture within the
modest warm conveyor combined with weak mid-level cooling may yield
scant elevated buoyancy by the 06-12Z period. This could support a
threat of isolated thunderstorms, mainly early morning Thursday.

..Grams.. 12/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291846
SWODY3
SPC AC 291845

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late New Year's Eve into early
New Year's Day along coastal southern California.

...Southern CA...
An initially retrograding upper low off of the southern CA coast is
forecast to stall and then eject northeastward as a shortwave trough
through the period, approaching the coast by early Thursday morning.
A modest increase in moisture beneath cooling temperatures aloft
could support weak thunderstorm development, mainly late in the
period from the Channel Islands to the immediate southern CA coast.
With only very meager forecast buoyancy, convection is expected to
remain too shallow and disorganized for an appreciable severe
threat, despite some increase in deep-layer flow/shear with time.

..Dean.. 12/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300734
SWODY3
SPC AC 300733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts
of southern California and Arizona.

...Southern CA to AZ...
While guidance has general agreement of a compact/lower-amplitude
shortwave impulse off the southern CA coast, models differ on its
spatial placement and potential dampening inland on Thursday amid a
broad ridge anchored across the West downstream of a longwave trough
in the northeast Pacific. This renders uncertainty over the degree
of mesoscale low-level flow enhancement along coastal southern CA
between 12-18Z, which will be crucial to any severe potential with
low-topped convection amid a meager buoyancy profile. In addition,
with latitudinal inconsistency in placement of the compact mid-level
cold core, confidence is low in the degree of thunderstorm
potential. The 00Z ECMWF appears to support potential for
low-probability severe on Thursday morning. Most other models, along
with the latest GEFS and yesterday's ECENS ML guidance, indicate
negligible severe potential.

Farther inland, buoyancy should remain scant east of the Peninsular
Ranges. But it may be adequate for sporadic lightning flashes that
yield very isolated thunderstorms across southwest AZ through
Thursday evening.

..Grams.. 12/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301930
SWODY3
SPC AC 301929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts
of southern California and Arizona.

...Southern CA to AZ...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of
southern CA Thursday morning, before dampening as it shifts eastward
across parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region later
in the period. Cooling aloft atop modestly increasing low-level
moisture will support some early-day thunderstorm potential across
coastal southern CA.

Guidance continues to vary regarding the strength, trajectory, and
magnitude of attendant flow fields of this system as it approaches
the coast. The somewhat stronger and farther south solutions (such
as the 12Z NAM/RRFS) depict potential for strong storm development
offshore, which could affect near-coastal areas of southern CA
during the morning before weakening. Other guidance (such as the 12Z
ECMWF) has trended northward, bringing stronger midlevel flow across
southern CA, but also greater displacement between substantial
cooling aloft and the more favorable low-level moisture. In general,
confidence in sufficient strengthening of flow within this weak
buoyancy regime remains too low to include severe probabilities.

Uncertainty regarding the evolution of the shortwave extends
downstream into parts of the Desert Southwest, but an area of
modestly enhanced low-level moisture across southwest AZ could
support isolated storm development later in the day into the
evening, as some cooling aloft overspreads the region.

..Dean.. 12/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 310829
SWODY3
SPC AC 310828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early
morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as
well as along a portion of the Pacific Coast.

...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South...
At least isolated thunderstorm potential should return across a
portion of the interior Deep South on Friday night. Meager elevated
buoyancy should develop as low-level moistening occurs ahead of a
leading shortwave impulse tracking across the Mid-South to TN
Valley. This impulse may dampen downstream of a shortwave trough
progressing from the Four Corners to north TX. The bulk of MUCAPE
should largely remain at around 500 J/kg or less, owing to modest
mid-level lapse rates.

Farther south towards the central Gulf Coast from southeast LA to
the FL Panhandle, richer low-level moisture should spread somewhat
inland ahead of the more prominent shortwave trough. Most convective-parameterized models suggest an increase in convective
development may occur at the end of the period within the low-level
theta-e gradient. Despite a generally zonal deep-layer wind profile,
adequate low-level hodograph curvature and robust speed shear
renders a conditional supercell concern. But poor mid-level lapse
rates renders concern for the degree of convective development prior
to 12Z, with the 00Z RRFS having minimal deep convective signal.
With minimal ML probabilities across this area as well, will defer
to later outlook cycles for a level 1-MRGL risk highlight.

...Coastal northern CA and southwest OR...
A large-scale upper trough will approach the Pacific Coast, with an
intense mid-level jetlet likely impinging on the northern CA coast
on Friday night. Fast deep-layer flow is anticipated within the
low-level warm conveyor, but should remain entirely meridional until
near the end of the period. Instability within the warm conveyor
appears minimal, suggesting that thunderstorm potential will remain
negligible amid strong gradient flow. Steepening mid-level lapse
rates may brush the northern CA to southwest OR coast in the early
morning Saturday. This should support scant buoyancy and potential
for very isolated thunderstorms.

..Grams.. 12/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 311932
SWODY3
SPC AC 311930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early
morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as
well as along coastal areas of central and northern California and
southwest Orgeon.

...LA/MS/AL vicinity...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from
the south-central Plains towards the TN Valley on Friday. A somewhat
stronger upstream shortwave trough will move quickly
east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward parts of north/east
TX. A surface low initially over north TX is expected to move
eastward toward northern MS/AL by Friday night. Increasing low-level
moisture within the warm sector of this low will allow for modest
diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing to
near/above 500 J/kg across parts of LA/MS, in advance of a trailing
cold front.

Strengthening deep-layer shear will become conditionally favorable
for organized convection, but potential for robust surface-based
development may be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and
relatively modest large-scale ascent within the warm sector. It
still appears that the bulk of any thunderstorm development will be
somewhat elevated and occur near and north of the surface warm front
across northern MS/AL/GA and southern TN, primarily during the
evening and overnight. At this time, elevated buoyancy appears
insufficient to support an organized severe threat with this
activity. However, if confidence increases regarding development of near-surface-based storms within the warm sector of the
eastward-moving low, then severe probabilities may eventually be
needed.

...Coastal northern CA/southwest OR...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will gradually move eastward and
approach the Pacific Coast by Friday night, as a strong jet begins
to impinge upon areas of central/northern CA and the Pacific
Northwest. A deepening surface low associated with this trough is
expected to remain offshore through Saturday morning. The strongest
low-level flow (50+ kt at 850 mb) will occur within the warm
conveyor of this cyclone, where instability is expected to remain
negligible.

Late in the period, some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates
may approach coastal areas of central/northern CA and southwest OR.
This may allow for development of generally weak convection with
sproadic lightning flashes. Low-level flow is forecast to remain
rather strong (35-45 kt at 850 mb) as midlevel lapse rates begin to
steepen, and any lightning-producing convection could be coincident
with gusty winds. However, any convective contribution to
damaging-wind potential may be limited by very meager surface-based
buoyancy through the end of the period.

..Dean.. 12/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010828
SWODY3
SPC AC 010828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHERN CA TO COASTAL SOUTHWEST OR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento Valley to coastal northern
California-southwest Oregon during the late afternoon to evening.

...Southeast...
A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress east across the
Lower MS Valley on Saturday morning and off the South Atlantic Coast
by Saturday night. Attendant surface cyclone should remain weak and
track from central AL to off coastal SC by evening. Timing of
large-scale ascent with the trough should yield increasing
convective coverage by late morning to midday, focused along the
northeast Gulf Coast to the Savannah Valley. Much of the region
should remain within the MLCAPE gradient as a plume of moderate
buoyancy becomes established over the northwest Gulf to central Gulf
Coast. Guidance consensus suggests that low-level winds may
gradually dampen through the day and become displaced east of richer boundary-layer moisture as the surface low moves towards the coast.
With a predominately west-southwesterly wind profile, deep-layer
speed shear should be the primary driver of organized convection. A
mix of all hazards appears plausible, although a corridor of greater
damaging wind potential may be evident in later outlooks.

...Northern CA to coastal southwest OR...
Guidance appears to be converging towards multiple shortwave
impulses ejecting northeast from a large-scale trough off the West
Coast. The more vigorous impulse should impinge on coastal OR around
Saturday evening, while a separate impulse dampens from the Bay Area
to the Sierra NV Mountains on Saturday afternoon. The southern
impulse should be favorably timed with afternoon boundary-layer
heating over the Sacramento Valley, where meager MLCAPE of 250-500
J/kg may develop. Amid a swath of strong mid-level
south-southwesterlies, an elongated hodograph could favor splitting
weak supercell structures that pose a risk for a brief tornado and
small hail. The northern impulse should be accompanied by very
strong low-level southerlies from 60-70 kts at 850 mb. While
buoyancy will remain scant, low-topped convection along the northern
CA to southwest OR coast could pose a threat for severe gusts.

..Grams.. 01/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011930
SWODY3
SPC AC 011929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN CA INTO COASTAL
SOUTHWEST OR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to
coastal northern California-southwest Oregon during the late
afternoon to evening.

...Parts of the Southeast...
A positive-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
from the lower MS Valley toward the South Atlantic Coast through the
period, as an attendant surface low moves from parts of AL/GA to
offshore of SC by late evening. A trailing cold front will move
through parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast vicinity.

Guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the front and
extent of heating/destabilization across the warm sector, but a
plume of weak to moderate MLCAPE is expected to be in place
along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon, as low-level
moisture spreads northeastward. Some veering/weakening of low-level
flow is forecast across parts of the warm sector with time
(especially with southwestward extent), but increasing midlevel flow
will result in sufficient effective shear for organized storms,
including some supercell potential.

Any lingering morning convection may intensify during the afternoon,
with additional storm development expected along/ahead of the cold
front, and near the primary buoyancy gradient and effective warm
front. This activity could pose at least a low-probability threat
for all severe hazards. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may
evolve within the broader Marginal Risk area, though uncertainty
remains regarding the magnitude of diurnal heating/destabilization,
and the strength/timing of the primary shortwave trough as it moves
quickly eastward.

...Northern CA to coastal southwest OR...
Latest guidance still depicts potential for multiple shortwave
troughs to eject northeastward from a deep mid/upper-level trough
off of the Pacific Coast. The southernmost shortwave is forecast to
move across central CA through the afternoon, while the more
vigorous northern shortwave is expected to affect coastal OR from
late afternoon into the evening.

The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal
convective development across the Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys, where cooling midlevel temperatures (dropping below
-20C at 500 mb) may support SBCAPE of 250-500 J/kg during the
afternoon. With relatively elongated hodographs, this generally
meager buoyancy may be sufficient for transient rotating cells to
develop, which could pose a threat for a brief tornado, small hail,
and locally gusty winds.

The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed
strengthening of low-level flow, potentially increasing to
near/above 60 kt at 850 mb over the ocean and along the northern
CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain meager, but cold
temperatures aloft will support low-topped convection that could
contribute to severe-gust potential. Transient rotating cells may
also develop offshore and approach the coast.

..Dean.. 01/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020816
SWODY3
SPC AC 020815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...West Coast to the CA Central Valley...
Latest guidance remains reasonably consistent with the evolution of
the persistent eastern Pacific upper trough on Sunday. One embedded
shortwave impulse should impinge on western WA early Sunday, while a
separate impulse shifts inland across southern CA through Sunday
night. Guidance is also highly consistent in depicting minimal
buoyancy in vicinity of these impulses, likely yielding lower-
probability thunder potential compared to D2/Saturday. Sporadic/very
isolated lightning coverage will probably diurnally peak on Sunday
afternoon, where cold mid-level temperatures are present along most
of the West Coast into the Central Valley.

..Grams.. 01/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021925
SWODY3
SPC AC 021924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave traversing the eastern CONUS at the beginning of
the period will continue to shift off the East Coast through the day
Sunday. A trailing cold front pushing southward along the FL
Peninsula will likely support shallow convective showers along the
coasts, but warm mid-level temperatures coincident with dry air will
limit the potential for deep convection and lightning production.
Across the West, broad southwesterly flow will persist along the
coast and into the Great Basin. Thunderstorm potential will most
likely be confined to central CA and perhaps along the northern CA
and OR/WA coasts where cool mid-level temperatures will overspread
modest low-level moisture. Weaker low-level wind profiles compared
to D2/Saturday should limit the potential for organized convection.
Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible further inland across the
northern Great Basin given broad-scale ascent and some degree of
mid-level cooling, but the signal for appreciable MUCAPE among all
guidance is too limited to introduce additional thunder areas.

..Moore.. 01/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030752
SWODY3
SPC AC 030751

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunder potential appears negligible on Monday and Monday night.

...Discussion...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while a separate shortwave
impulse shifts south off the central to southern CA coast. Buoyancy
will be minimal in the West, generally confined to coastal CA and
parts of the Great Basin. A few lightning flashes are possible in
both regions. But with weaker large-scale ascent compared to
D2/Sunday, thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent.

Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing
convection through the period.

..Grams.. 01/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031921
SWODY3
SPC AC 031920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible across parts of the
California coast and Great Basin Monday and Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Mean troughing will persist across the western CONUS through Monday
as a weak perturbation moves across the Great Basin while another
upper wave deepens southward along the CA coast. In general, poor
lapse rates across much of the region will limit thunderstorm
potential for most inland locations. However, guidance consensus has
trended towards very weak buoyancy (lifted indices around -1 C)
across parts of the Great Basin and along the northern/central CA
coast where mid-level temperatures should be relatively cooler in
proximity to the upper disturbances. This may be adequate for
sporadic lightning flashes. Still, lightning production is expected
to be isolated at best and will likely peak around late afternoon.

..Moore.. 01/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040737
SWODY3
SPC AC 040736

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across much of the CONUS through the period. A trio of exceptions
are apparent where thunderstorm probabilities appear to be nonzero,
but below 10 percent. Within a fast zonal flow regime over the
Northwest, a lower-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress along
the WA/BC border towards the northern Rockies on Tuesday night.
Colder mid-level temperatures in the wake of this impulse combined
with persistent onshore low-level flow might yield a brief
thunderstorm overnight along the WA coast. Farther south, a closed
upper low off the southern CA coast should continue to drift south
and remain west of Baja CA. Much of the guidance is insistent that
instability will remain too minimal to warrant a thunderstorm risk
along the far southern CA coast through 12Z Wednesday. Finally,
flimsy elevated buoyancy could develop in vicinity of a progressive
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A brief
thunderstorm or two could occur within an emerging mixed-phase
precipitation swath.

..Grams.. 01/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041919
SWODY3
SPC AC 041918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
Latest guidance continues to depict very limited potential for
thunderstorms across the country Tuesday/Tuesday night. Despite an
influx of Gulf moisture into the lower MS Valley and a passing upper
wave over the Plains, warm low/mid-level temperatures will preclude
deep convection for the central/southern US. Some solutions -
notably the NAM - hint at the potential for weak buoyancy across the
central Rockies and northwest WA, but poor ensemble agreement limits
confidence in the potential for lightning.

..Moore.. 01/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050756
SWODY3
SPC AC 050755

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night.

...Coastal WA/OR...
A shortwave trough should reach the coastal Pacific Northwest by
midday/early afternoon Wednesday, before amplifying inland into the
Great Basin by 12Z Thursday. Cold mid-level temperatures of -30 to
-35 C at 500 mb in conjunction with onshore low-level flow should
yield scant surface-based buoyancy along the immediate coast by late
morning. Sporadic lightning flashes are possible through the
afternoon amid widely scattered low-topped convection near and in
the wake of trough passage.

...West TX to the Ozarks...
In response to the aforementioned amplifying upper trough, a
low-latitude shortwave trough will accelerate east-northeast from
west of Baja CA. How far downstream this trough reaches by 12Z
Thursday remains uncertain. The 00Z EC-AIFS has been quite
consistent with a slower ejection and appears more reasonable given
typical guidance biases. It is an outlier along with the 00Z GFS in
holding the trough over northwest Mexico, while the majority of
guidance has it ejecting onto the southern High Plains. This will
impact the initial amplitude of cyclogenesis over the OK/northern TX
Panhandles vicinity through Wednesday night.

Modified low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will
initially be modest beneath an elevated mixed layer. Forecast
soundings also suggest weak lapse rates with nearly saturated
upper-level profiles well downstream of the low-latitude trough. As
such, elevated buoyancy should increase but remain weak. Guidance
also has pronounced differences in the degree of convective
development prior to 12Z Thursday, likely related to the degree of
preceding MUCIN and timing of strengthening large-scale ascent.
Opted to broadly aligned with the low 03Z SREF calibrated
thunderstorm probabilities pending potentially greater guidance
consistency in later outlooks.

..Grams.. 01/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051930
SWODY3
SPC AC 051929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
An upper low currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to
progress eastward into the southern Plains by late Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. Gradual low-level moistening will occur
through the day across TX and into OK as low-level flow strengthens
in response to steady cyclogenesis across the Plains. Additionally,
ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave will promote adequate destabilization for MUCAPE values of around 500 J/kg between 06-12
UTC across northern TX into OK and the Ozarks. While buoyancy
profiles will most likely remain too limited for substantially deep
convection, strengthening wind profiles may support transient
organized storms overnight across northern TX into parts of OK.
Confidence remains too limited at this time to introduce risk
probabilities, but highlights may be needed if new guidance trends
towards the more aggressive extended-range RRFS solutions.

...WA/OR Coast...
Strong ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with an
approaching upper trough will once again support adequate buoyancy
for isolated thunderstorms off and along the coast of the Pacific
Northwest through the day Wednesday. Lifted indices on the order of
-1 to -2 C suggest that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too
limited for strong convection and any appreciable severe threat.

..Moore.. 01/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060827
SWODY3
SPC AC 060826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas
and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi
Valley.

...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...

Guidance still varies somewhat regarding the timing and strength of
the primary synoptic features across the CONUS on Thursday. In
general, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to eject
quickly northeastward from the southern Plains towards the Great
Lakes on Thursday, as an upstream shortwave trough moves from the
Southwest toward the southern Rockies. In conjunction with the lead
shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to move from the
south-central Plains northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes by
the end of the period.

Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across
parts of OK/KS into the Ozarks, in association with the ejecting
shortwave. Despite the meager instability, some organized convection
may be ongoing Thursday morning, given the strength of the forcing
and deep-layer flow/shear. Gusty and locally damaging winds could
accompany any organized line segments as they approach parts of the
OH Valley, though lingering low-level stability will tend to limit
the magnitude of the threat, especially with northeast extent.

In the wake of the ejecting shortwave and early-day convection, a
relatively large and strongly sheared warm sector will extend from
the Gulf Coast into the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley.
However, with generally poor lapse rates, weak to modest buoyancy,
and a tendency for the strongest ascent to lift away from the warm
sector with time, organized-severe potential during the afternoon
and evening is uncertain.

There is a modest signal in ECMWF/GFS and related ensemble guidance
for storm development Thursday evening/night from near the ArkLaTex
into the lower OH Valley, with the deterministic ECMWF also
depicting robust elevated convection into parts of central TX late
in the period. If storms can mature within the favorably sheared
environment, then some threat for locally damaging wind, isolated
hail, and/or a tornado could evolve later in the period. A rather
conditional Marginal Risk has been included where ensemble and
calibrated guidance depicts at least a low-probability severe threat
through the period.

..Dean.. 01/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061927
SWODY3
SPC AC 061926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas
and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi
Valley.

...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...

Guidance has come into relatively better agreement with the timing
and overall evolution of a compact midlevel impulse and accompanying
surface low ejecting northeastward from the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes through the period. This will result in the
development of an expansive warm sector characterized by partially
modified Gulf moisture and somewhat cool surface temperatures. Given poor/modest lapse rates, buoyancy will remain fairly limited --
especially with northward extent. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer
flow/shear will overspread the warm sector, resulting in an
expansive area of conditional severe potential.

Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms with a risk of marginally
severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be spreading
east-northeastward from the southern Plains into the lower/middle MS
Valley at the start of the period. There will be some potential for
this activity to become surface-based and intensify as it tracks east-northeastward though the afternoon, though this will be largely
dependent on the degree of surface heating in the warm sector. If
storms can root at the surface, a mesoscale corridor of higher
severe potential will be possible -- posing a risk of severe wind
gusts and perhaps a tornado.

Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward toward the lower
OH Valley in tandem with the surface low through the day, and severe
potential becomes more uncertain with northward extent (given the
low CAPE/high shear parameter space). A small northward expansion of
severe probabilities was made where near-surface-based storms will
be possible amid strengthening low-level flow/shear, and depending
on destabilization, further expansions will be possible.

..Weinman.. 01/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070831
SWODY3
SPC AC 070830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday
from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and
Southeast.

...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH
Valleys...
Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to
move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of
this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies
and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains
regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop
and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the
lower Ohio Valley.

Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F)
will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing
cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from
south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north
and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in
weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will
remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to
develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in
response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low.

Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with
multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm
sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and
into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat
from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with
increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet.
The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential
for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible,
especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area,
where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place.

..Dean.. 01/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071914
SWODY3
SPC AC 071913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower
Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.

...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys...
In the wake of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and related surface
low departing the Great Lakes region, a front will extend from the
surface low southwestward along the lower/middle OH Valley into the
Arklatex through the first half of the period. During this time,
broad low-level warm advection amid a relatively moist air mass
ahead of the front will support training thunderstorms beneath a
belt of strong, front-parallel midlevel southwesterly flow. Despite
poor deep-layer lapse rates and limited buoyancy, around 50 kt of
effective shear may promote a couple strong to severe storms capable
of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and possibly a brief
tornado into the afternoon hours.

In the 21-03Z time frame, midlevel height falls accompanying a broad
upstream trough will impinge on the frontal zone over the Mid-South
vicinity. In response, a frontal wave will evolve into a surface low
while tracking east-northeastward across the TN Valley during the
overnight hours. Strengthening low-level warm-advection amid a plume
of moist/uncapped air (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will yield a
quick uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the lower MS and TN
Valleys. Around 50-60 kt of effective shear and enlarging low-level
hodographs ahead of the low will conditionally favor a mix of
organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures -- posing
a risk of damaging winds and possibly a couple tornadoes. However,
weak buoyancy and the potential for many storm interactions increase
the overall conditionality of the tornado risk.

..Weinman.. 01/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080829
SWODY3
SPC AC 080828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

...Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia...
An upper trough will amplify and move eastward across the eastern
CONUS on Saturday, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves across the
Great Lakes region. A surface low initially over the TN Valley will
move towards the Mid Atlantic, as another surface low develops
farther north near the lower Great Lakes.

Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from
parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians vicinity.
Deep-layer flow/shear will be strong, and seasonably rich low-level
moisture will be in place ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.
Organized cells/clusters that develop during the D2/Friday period
may persist through at least the first part of the day, with a
continued threat for at least locally damaging wind, and potentially
a tornado threat where vigorous surface-based convection can
persist. Longevity of the threat with time and eastward extent
remains uncertain, with an expected tendency for weakening buoyancy
and diminishing ascent across the warm sector. Some potential for
locally damaging wind could spread into parts of the Carolinas and
Virginia before the threat diminishes as the cold front moves
through.

A Marginal Risk has been included for areas forecast to be
along/ahead of the cold front at the start of the period and
near/south of the consensus surface-low track. A Slight Risk was
considered for parts of eastern MS into AL and western GA, as a
continuation of the severe threat from late D2/Friday into Saturday
morning, but deferred to future outlooks given uncertainty regarding
the impact of widespread convection within the warm sector by the
beginning of the D3/Saturday period.

..Dean.. 01/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081928
SWODY3
SPC AC 081927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

...Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia...
Within a swath of broad/strong midlevel southwesterly flow across
the eastern half of the CONUS, a robust midlevel jet will advance
northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast -- while phasing with an upstream trough and
related midlevel jet. An accompanying frontal wave/weak surface
cyclone -- initially over the TN Valley -- will track northeastward
along a remnant frontal zone toward the Northeast in tandem with the
midlevel jet.

At the start of the period, broken bands of thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast,
along/east of the frontal zone/surface wave. While buoyancy will be
somewhat limited (especially with northward extent toward northern
AL), ample boundary-layer moisture and a focused low-level jet will
continue to promote a few strong to severe storms, with a risk of
damaging gusts and a tornado. While uncertain, there appears to be a
corridor of relatively higher severe potential from parts of
south-central AL into GA, and this area continues to be monitored
for a potential upgrade.

Thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward through the day, as the
midlevel jet and surface wave track northeastward. Buoyancy will
become limited with northward extent, though the
northeastward-moving low-level jet and strong deep-layer shear will
continue to yield a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
with any stronger storms that spread into the Carolinas and southern
VA.

..Weinman.. 01/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090817
SWODY3
SPC AC 090816

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the U.S. Sunday or
Sunday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the eastern
Seaboard on Sunday, as northwest flow aloft becomes established
across much of the central and eastern part of the U.S. At the
surface, a large area of high pressure will settle in across the
south-central and southeastern U.S., keeping conditions relative dry
and stable over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorms
are not expected to develop over the continental U.S. Sunday and
Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 01/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091912
SWODY3
SPC AC 091911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the period. Strong forcing for
ascent and steepening deep-layer lapse rates preceding the trough
could result in an isolated lightning flash with low-topped
convection overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. However, low confidence
in this scenario and expected limited coverage precludes a TSTM area
at this time. Upstream, an expansive cool/dry air mass will limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 01/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100826
SWODY3
SPC AC 100825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday and Monday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will remain over the eastern U.S.
on Monday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves southeastward into
the north-central states Monday night. At the surface, an area of
high pressure will remain anchored over the Gulf Coast states on
Monday, as a cool and dry airmass remains in place over much of the
continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected to
develop over the nation Monday or Monday night.

..Broyles.. 01/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101926
SWODY3
SPC AC 101925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions will generally preclude thunderstorm
development across the CONUS on Monday. A vigorous mid/upper
shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther south, an upper low is forecast to
move northeast across northern Mexico, and begin to influence parts
of southwest TX. Weak convective showers may accompany both of
these systems, but very meager and shallow elevated buoyancy is
expected to limit lightning potential.

..Dean.. 01/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110830
SWODY3
SPC AC 110829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the
east-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated surface low deepens
across the Great Lakes. In response, a cold front will move
southeastward across the central U.S. This will reinforce cold and
dry conditions over most of the nation. For this reason,
thunderstorm development is not expected over the continental U.S.
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111852
SWODY3
SPC AC 111851

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Tuesday. A large-scale
upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern
CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low are
forecast to move across the Great Lakes vicinity, while a weak upper
low initially near southwest TX is expected to evolve into a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and move eastward across the Gulf
Coast region.

A persistent surface ridge over the Gulf will inhibit moisture
return and destabilization within the warm sector of the surface low
moving across the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture and weak
buoyancy may reside across parts of south FL and the Keys for much
of the period. However, weak forcing and poor lapse rates will tend
to inhibit deep convection, with any appreciable thunderstorm
potential currently expected to remain offshore.

..Dean.. 01/11/2026

$$

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