ACUS02 KWNS 041729
SWODY2
SPC AC 041728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast Friday.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing over the eastern US is forecast to
continue Friday as several small-scale perturbations pass over the
Plains and Midwest. At the surface, a low will deepen over the
northern Rockies while a stalled front will remain in place along
the Gulf Coast. Behind the front, a cold and dry polar air mass will
largely preclude thunderstorm development over much of the US. The
exception will be along the central and northeastern Gulf Coast
where a few thunderstorms are possible early.

...Southern LA to the FL Panhandle...
Along the stalled front, a weak wave low is forecast to develop
across the northern Gulf ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave moving
out of the southern Plains. Convergence along the front and ahead of
this feature could allow the front to move inland a few miles Friday
morning. While not overly warm nor moist, modest destabilization
could support isolated elevated thunderstorms inland and closer to
the coast through midday. Strong flow aloft and backing along the
front could allow for a few transient rotating cells. This appears
most likely over parts of southern LA and the FL Big Bend where
storms closer to the front could potentiality be near surface-based
for a couple hours. However, given the weak buoyancy and few if any surface-based storms inland for a longer duration, severe potential
remains too low for probabilities.

..Lyons.. 12/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050547
SWODY2
SPC AC 050545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from a possible isolated weak thunderstorm or two across parts
of the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the nation Saturday through Saturday
night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate little change to the large-scale pattern across much
of North America through this period. Downstream of lingering
mid/upper ridging just inland of the Pacific coast, flow will
continue to split into broad troughing centered within one branch,
across Hudson Bay through portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast,
and another, across the central/southern Great Plains through
Southeast. Weak, positively-tilted troughing is also forecast to
linger across and southwest of southern Baja, between an
increasingly suppressed high over the southern mid-latitude to
subtropical eastern Pacific and ridging across the Caribbean through
western subtropical Atlantic.

In lower levels, the primary surface front may advance a bit farther
offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into the central
Florida Peninsula, but models suggest it will stall across the
northwestern Gulf Basin and perhaps redevelop northward toward
northeastern Gulf coastal areas Saturday night.

...Northeastern Gulf coast/Florida Peninsula...
Low-level moistening and insolation may contribute to boundary-layer destabilization in a corridor near/just ahead of the front across
the central Florida Peninsula during the day Saturday. While this
could become supportive of at least attempts at deepening convective development by late Saturday afternoon, relatively warm mid-level
temperatures and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent seem likely to
limit thunderstorm development to perhaps a weak thunderstorm or
two.

Better potential for thunderstorms may develop by late Saturday
night across the northeastern Gulf, aided by forcing for ascent
downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the southern Great
Plains, perhaps preceded by a perturbation emerging from the
subtropics. This might include convection rooted with lift
associated with lower/mid-troposphere warm advection, as far north
as coastal southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend vicinity.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051652
SWODY2
SPC AC 051650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward across the Mid-South on Saturday, and then move
offshore of the Carolinas by early Sunday morning. Upstream, a
midlevel shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move
southeastward from the northern High Plains toward the mid MS
Valley.

Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential
across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Weak convection and possibly
isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the
FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weakening front. Late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning, thunderstorms may develop near the
central Gulf Coast vicinity, north of an offshore front that is
expected to slowly move northward late in the period. Where
thunderstorms occur, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy
are expected to limit organized-severe potential through the period.

..Dean.. 12/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060542
SWODY2
SPC AC 060541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms across the
central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild
offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while
being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this
period. Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the
larger-scale, but one embedded vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay
vicinity may redevelop southeastward through central Quebec, while
at least a couple of short wave perturbations consolidate within
another branch of cyclonic flow across the central/southern Great
Plains through Southeast.

This latter development may be accompanied by modest mid-level
height falls as far south as the central Florida Peninsula by late
Sunday night, along with a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air
across the Gulf coast into northwestern Gulf Basin. Downstream, a
weak low may begin to develop along the initial stalled/slow moving
frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels, associated with
subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean and adjacent western
Atlantic, may tend to suppress convective potential, particularly
across the southern into central peninsula through at least Sunday
evening. However, beneath a belt of modest west-southwesterly
low-level flow (20-30 kt around 850 mb), an initially drier boundary
layer over the interior into eastern peninsula may moisten and
become potentially unstable by late Sunday afternoon into evening.
It is possible that this could become supportive of a period of
thunderstorm development, mainly focused along/ahead of the cold
front as it advances into and across the Interstate 4 corridor.

At least some machine learning guidance suggests that the
environment could become supportive of low probabilities for severe
weather, mainly in the form of a generally brief, weak tornado or
two. With sufficient boundary-layer moistening, forecast soundings
do depict the development of modest low-level hodographs, and strong
deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt flow around 500 mb. At this
point, however, this potential still appears too conditional to
introduce a categorical severe risk, based on latest HREF and other
model guidance. But trends will continue to be monitored.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061651
SWODY2
SPC AC 061649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of
Florida. Severe potential appears low at this time.

...Florida...

An upper trough will develop east from the Plains toward the eastern
U.S. on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of 30-40 kt 850-700 mb
west/southwest flow will overspread portions of the FL Peninsula
atop a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across
north-central FL. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs
with modestly curved low-level hodographs in the vicinity of the
surface boundary during the afternoon into early evening.

Surface heating will be somewhat muted by cloud cover, and
persistent showers/isolated thunderstorms in the warm advection
regime to the cool side of the boundary. Furthermore, midlevel
temperatures are forecast to be rather warm, limiting lapse rates,
and instability will remain weak (generally less than 500 J/kg
MLCAPE). This should largely limit severe potential. However, a
stronger, rotating storm offshore from west-central FL could
approach the coast during the afternoon/early evening. While a
strong gust or waterspout could occur with this activity, over all
risk appears too low/conditional, and limited in spatial extent, to
include probabilities.

..Leitman.. 12/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070502
SWODY2
SPC AC 070500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and,
perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for
thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level
vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador
vicinity during this period. However, models indicate that
large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the
Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad
ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S
Intermountain West.

One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians,
across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may
contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the
Caribbean and Bahamas. In lower levels, an associated reinforcing
intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the
southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the
remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.

At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave
perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will
provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.

...Southern Florida/Keys...
Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for
thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing
front. Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for
appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas,
limited as well.

..Kerr.. 12/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071713
SWODY2
SPC AC 071711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across South Florida and the
Keys on Monday. Severe storms are not expected.

...South Florida...

An upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf
will pivot east on Monday, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by
late evening. Enhanced mid/upper westerly flow will extend across
the Southeast into the FL Peninsula early in the day, and weaken
with time through the period. At the surface, a cold front over
south-central FL will develop southward through the day, moving
offshore during the evening.

Large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the area, with any
stronger forcing focused well north of the region. Nevertheless,
rich boundary layer moisture will exist ahead of the boundary, and
weak instability is noted in forecast soundings. Poor lapse rates
will limit updraft intensity, and forcing along the front also will
be modest given veering low-level winds. Nevertheless, a few
thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning across South FL and surroundings coastal/near-shore areas. This activity may persist
into the afternoon before diminishing. Severe storms are not
expected.

..Leitman.. 12/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080502
SWODY2
SPC AC 080501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at
least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a
downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this
period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is
likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies.

One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this
jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level
troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper
Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the
upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will
be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant
surface cold intrusion.

A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for
thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida
Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this
front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and
some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north.
However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial
low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an
increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit
inland moistening.

..Kerr.. 12/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081658
SWODY2
SPC AC 081656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the
Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday,
resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity
is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests
that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south
of the FL Keys.

To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move
quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High
Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb)
surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold
front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the
Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop
within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains
during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday
night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust
potential currently appears unlikely.

..Dean.. 12/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081705
SWODY2
SPC AC 081703

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the
Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday,
resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity
is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests
that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south
of the FL Keys.

To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move
quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High
Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb)
surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold
front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the
Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop
within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains
during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday
night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust
potential currently appears unlikely.

..Dean.. 12/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090506
SWODY2
SPC AC 090504

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin
to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is
forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific
coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains,
through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still
appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced
across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging
short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning
the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but
vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after
emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of
others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through
the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related
surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return
flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the
wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable
conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible
risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091648
SWODY2
SPC AC 091646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Despite the presence of a deep cyclone moving across the Northeast
on Wednesday, low-level moisture return will continue to be
suppressed in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, resulting in
negligible thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Weak buoyancy
may develop across parts of far south FL and the Keys, but with
generally weak ascent and dry air aloft across this region, any deep
convection is expected to remain offshore.

..Dean.. 12/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100502
SWODY2
SPC AC 100501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high building near
and to the north of the Aleutians, mid-level developments across the
eastern Pacific into western North America are still forecast to
include a belt of strong flow veering to an increasing northwesterly
component across British Columbia and adjacent portions of the
Pacific Northwest, through portions of the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains during this period. One or two short
wave perturbations on the leading edge of this regime will begin to
reinforce broad downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley
into western Atlantic.

Mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as the Gulf
Coast states, but heights across much of the South may tend to rise
in the wake of a significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast
to migrate out of the Northeast through the Canadian Maritimes.
While progressing farther offshore to the north, it still appears
that the primary trailing frontal zone may stall/retreat
northeastward across the southern Atlantic Coast through Tennessee
Valley vicinity, while advancing southward through the lower
Missouri Valley and central Great Plains vicinity by late Thursday
night. At the same time, much colder air probably will continue to
gradually nose southward to the lee of the Canadian and northern
U.S. Rockies.

Models indicate that a remnant preceding front will become more
diffuse across the central through northwestern Gulf Basin, and a
gradual boundary-layer modification may continue across the
northwestern Gulf as a weak southerly return flow begins to develop.
Some boundary-layer moistening appears possible inland across Texas
coastal areas, but forecast soundings indicate that this will occur
beneath pronounced warm/dry layers in the lower/mid-troposphere,
precluding appreciable destabilization through this period.

..Kerr.. 12/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101654
SWODY2
SPC AC 101652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

A broad expanse of northwesterly flow aloft will stretch from the
Pacific Northwest to the Southeast on Thursday as an upper ridge
builds over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough moves offshore
the Atlantic coast. Prior surface cold frontal intrusions into the
Gulf will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the
Rockies. With a dry and stable boundary layer in place,
thunderstorms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110530
SWODY2
SPC AC 110529

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of
the Aleutians, it still appears that the evolving flow may include a
shortwave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the
Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short
wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level
troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great
Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the
persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies may gradually
lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient
tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of
colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the
Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday
night.

In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern
periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern
Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the
northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath
this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening
will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to
develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is
possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become
conducive to scattered deepening convective development prior to 12Z
Saturday.

...Texas coastal areas...
Latest guidance, including available forecast soundings from various
models, still suggests that the environment may become increasing
conducive to convection capable of producing lightning near lower
through middle coastal areas late Friday night. Highest
probabilities for the initiation of at least a couple of weak
thunderstorms may be around 12Z Saturday, just east of the coastal
waters. At least for now, thunderstorm probabilities will be
maintained at less than 10 percent, but, depending on trends in
later model runs, it is possible than minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may still need to be reintroduced.

..Kerr.. 12/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111658
SWODY2
SPC AC 111656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will persist near the Pacific coast while broad upper
troughing continues across the eastern U.S. Stronger flow aloft will
be displaced from the only appreciable, albeit modest, moisture
along the Texas coastal plain. A surface low over the OH/TN Valleys
will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic late in the period, allowing
a weak cold front to develop south toward the western and central
Gulf coasts. Some thunderstorm activity could develop late in the
period over the western Gulf waters as a weak shortwave impulse
moves across northeast Mexico. However, thunderstorm activity is
expected to remain offshore, precluding 10 percent general thunder probabilities.

..Leitman.. 12/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across South Florida
and the Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern on Saturday will feature a ridge across the
western CONUS with troughing across the east. This mid-level trough
will amplify on Saturday as a strong mid-level jet streak moves from
the northern Plains to the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front
will sharpen from the Ohio Valley to the Plains and move south
rapidly Saturday evening.

...South Florida...
Tropical moisture will start to advect northward across the southern
Florida Peninsula on Friday. If this advects far enough north during
the day, a few thunderstorms may be possible on the eastern sea
breeze. During the overnight period, storm chances will increase
across the western Florida Peninsula as a mid-level shortwave trough
traverses the Gulf. Limited instability should preclude any severe
weather threat from this activity.

Shallow convection may develop along the southward moving cold front
from southeast Texas to central Alabama late Saturday night, but
warm temperatures aloft should limit lightning potential.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121711
SWODY2
SPC AC 121709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of
the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the
Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

...Gulf Coast...

An upper trough will deepen over the eastern half of the CONUS on
Saturday, though stronger west/northwesterly flow will be displaced
well to the north of the region. At the surface, strong high
pressure will build over the Plains into the Midwest, shunting a
weak cold front south across the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity during the overnight hours. Modest moisture will be in
place along the TX coast into the central Gulf coast vicinity, with
richer tropical moisture across South FL and the Keys. This will
allow for modest destabilization ahead of the boundary. Weak forcing
for ascent, warm midlevel temperatures, and weak instability will
preclude strong updrafts. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorm
activity will be possible near the TX coast into southwest LA, as
well as South FL and the Keys.

..Leitman.. 12/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130554
SWODY2
SPC AC 130552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes to the western
Atlantic by Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong high
pressure will continue to build south and east from the Midwest to
the Tennessee Valley. This expansive high pressure will push a cold
front into the Atlantic and the Gulf. Richer boundary layer moisture
will remain confined to South Florida and the Keys where showers and
isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity
may persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time.
However, weak instability should limit overall severe weather
potential.

..Bentley.. 12/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131712
SWODY2
SPC AC 131711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as
another upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest tomorrow
(Sunday). Surface high pressure and an associated statically stable
airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies,
limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. The best chance
for any isolated thunderstorm development will be along a surface
cold front. At the start of the period (12Z Sunday), a few
thunderstorms may develop along the cold front across the western
Gulf Coast as the front encounters low-level moisture and moves
offshore. Later in the day, the cold front will encounter a
low-level moisture-driven, marginally unstable airmass across the
southern FL Peninsula/FL Keys, where isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible.

Across the Pacific Northwest, cooler temperatures aloft (and
accompanying scant buoyancy) will impinge on the shoreline toward
the end of the period (06-12Z Monday morning). While a couple of
lightning flashes may occur during this time frame, the current
thinking is that the overall coverage of lightning will likely be
too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140644
SWODY2
SPC AC 140642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on
Monday.

...Discussion...
A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on
Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf.
Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on
Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A
strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest
northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level
moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with
the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability
on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141706
SWODY2
SPC AC 141705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington
tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
A broad but low-amplitude upper ridge will become established east
of the Rockies while a de-amplifying upper trough overspreads the
northwestern U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Surface high pressure/colder
air will prevail east of the MS River, while dry, statically stable
air becomes predominant across the Plains into portions of the
Interior West. Thunderstorm potential will therefore be limited
across most of the U.S. One exception will be portions of the
Pacific Northwest, where colder temperatures aloft will accompany
the aforementioned de-amplifying upper trough. This will yield scant
buoyancy, amid appreciable forcing for ascent, to support a few
lightning flashes wherever deep-moist convection can develop.
Furthermore, 50+ kt flow, within a few hundred m above ground level,
will develop with the passage of the upper trough. If a stronger
storm core can materialize, enough downward momentum transport may
take place to support a few damaging gusts. However, confidence in
this scenario is too low for the introduction of severe
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150700
SWODY2
SPC AC 150659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest
on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also
possible over the Texas Coastal Plain early Wednesday morning.

...Pacific Northwest...
A strong mid-level jet streak will approach the Pacific Northwest
coast Tuesday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front will move
onshore and bring the potential for some stronger thunderstorms.
Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the surface cold
front off the OR/WA coast Tuesday afternoon/evening. A stronger line
of convection is expected to develop along the front as it
approaches the coast Tuesday evening. Given the very strong wind
field (nearly 100 knots at 500mb), some stronger wind gusts may
develop within the convective line. Forecast instability is quite
weak (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE) which casts some doubt on the
efficiency for the stronger mid-level flow to mix to the surface.
This is the primary factor precluding a 5% wind area at this time.
Instability will wane quickly inland and therefore, any stronger
wind gusts will likely be confined to areas along the coast.

...Texas Coastal Plain...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across Texas during the
day on Tuesday. Mid-level forcing will be weak, but a modest
low-level jet will develop across East Texas and persist through the
day. This will bring some return moisture to the Texas Coastal
Plain. Eventually, likely after 06Z, the combination of moistening
low-levels and slightly cooling temperatures aloft will result in
sufficient destabilization for a few isolated thunderstorms within
the zone of isentropic ascent across East Texas.

..Bentley.. 12/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151622
SWODY2
SPC AC 151621

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Tuesday).

...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the northern CONUS
tomorrow (Tuesday), prompting surface troughing across the central
U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Cool temperatures aloft will
overspread the northern OR into WA coastline areas, promoting scant
buoyancy amid deep-layer ascent to support the potential for a few
lightning flashes. Across the western Gulf Coast, adequate return
flow of moisture, driven by aforementioned surface troughing, will
support marginal buoyancy and associated potential for isolated
thunderstorms early Wednesday morning.

..Squitieri.. 12/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160655
SWODY2
SPC AC 160654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
and the northern Rockies vicinity Wednesday morning. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the
Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak and associated mid-level trough over
the Pacific Northwest will amplify as it advances east through the
day. A very strong surface low (~985mb) will move from British
Columbia to the Upper Midwest through the period. A strong cold
front will extend southwest from this surface low. This surface low
will begin the day in the vicinity of northern Idaho/eastern
Washington into eastern Oregon. It will move quickly southeast
through the day. It will move across the Plains Wednesday evening
and into the Midwest by early Thursday morning.

...Northern Rockies Vicinity...
A line of shallow convection will likely exist along a strong cold
front at 12Z Wednesday somewhere across eastern OR/WA into northern
Idaho. Forecast soundings show only limited instability, but with
additional forcing along the front, some stronger cores within the
line may deepen enough for some lightning generation. In addition, a
very strong wind profile is present which may result in some gusty
winds within this line. Very weak instability is the primary
limiting factor for a Marginal Risk.

...Midwest...
Moisture will advect northward from the southern Plains and into the
Ozarks Wednesday and Wednesday evening. At the very end of the Day 2
period (09-12Z Thu) this moisture is expected to interact with the
rapidly advancing cold front. Instability will be weak, but
sufficient for storm development along the frontal zone by 12Z
Thursday. In addition, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen
Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Isentropic ascent
within this low-level jet axis, combined with increasing elevated
instability, may be sufficient for isolated storm development
between 06Z and 12Z.

..Bentley.. 12/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161720
SWODY2
SPC AC 161718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over much of the northern
Rockies on Wednesday, with a greater probability across the Texas
Coastal Plain. Sporadic activity may also occur Wednesday night into
the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough and cold front will move across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies on Wednesday, with substantial
cooling aloft and strong winds. Daytime heating will lead to areas
of weak instability, with scattered lightning possible especially
over ID and western MT/WY. Overnight, a strong cold front will surge
south across the Great Plains, and sporadic lightning may occur with elevated/weak convection.

Southeast of this system, a low-latitude wave will be located over
southern TX, with cool midlevel temperatures present. This will aid destabilization despite relatively cool surface temperatures.
Dewpoints in the 60s F will be common across the Coastal Plain and
perhaps toward the ArkLaTex late, however, given the surface high to
the east, low-level trajectories will favor cool surface
temperatures and elevated instability in most areas.

..Jewell.. 12/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170653
SWODY2
SPC AC 170651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the mid-level
trough across the central Plains early Thursday and emerge across
the Ohio Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will
continue east and take on a more neutral to perhaps negative tilt by
early Friday across the East Coast. A strong (sub 990mb) surface low
will move from the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec with a trailing
cold front sweeping from the Midwest to the East Coast.

...OH/TN Valleys...
The cold front is expected to interact with the richer low-level
moisture early in the period across Illinois and Missouri with a
shallow line of thunderstorms expected to develop. In addition, some
weak elevated instability may develop ahead of this front as cooling
mid-level temperatures result in sufficient elevated instability for
storms. Low-level instability ahead of the front is expected to
remain quite weak (100 to 200 J/kg). A strong frontal circulation
should overcome the weak instability and produce sufficient lift for
lightning. Any updrafts deep enough to produce lightning, and with
minimal inhibition (seemingly around 55F surface dewpoint) may also
have at least some isolated damaging wind threat given the 60 to 70
knot low-level jet around 1km.

Greater instability is expected south of the TN/MS/AL border where
upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast. However, despite the
more favorable thermodynamics, the upper-level forcing will be
weaker. Therefore, it is unclear whether the line of storms will
continue that far south, and additional convection ahead of the
front will likely struggle given the weak lapse rates/minimal
heating.

...Eastern Virginia into North Carolina...
Strong storms and potential supercells are expected over the warm
Gulf Stream waters Thursday evening. Some guidance indicates surface
based instability may advect inland across far eastern North
Carolina which would allow some of these stronger storms to move
inland. Current expectation is for stronger storms and 60+F
dewpoints to remain mostly offshore, so no marginal risk will be
added.

Late in the period, as the cold front crosses the Appalachians,
some increase in storm strength is anticipated as mid 50s dewpoints
east of the Appalachians provide weak instability to fuel the
storms. If more aggressive inland moisture advection occurs, similar
to the scenario mentioned above, some marginal damaging wind threat
could materialize given the strong wind field.

..Bentley.. 12/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171726
SWODY2
SPC AC 171725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential will be limited on Thursday, but isolated strong
wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will move across Midwest on Thursday with low
pressure moving across the Great Lakes. A cold front will extend
south from this low with wind shift moving across the OH and TN
Valleys during the day and into the evening. Minimal destabilization
is forecast ahead of the front as clouds and early day precipitation
hamper heating. Mostly elevated instability is forecast, though
shear profiles will be strong. Despite a marginal/cool boundary
layer across the warm sector, deeper ascent along the cold front
could support shallow moist convection capable of augmenting gusts
with the frontal passage.

Elsewhere, moisture and instability will increase overnight well off
the NC Coast, but supercells developing over the water may
eventually skirt the Outer Banks of NC toward the end of the period.
At this time it appears the instability gradient will remain
offshore.

..Jewell.. 12/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180656
SWODY2
SPC AC 180655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night.

...Discussion...
A line of thunderstorms is expected along a strong cold front
extending from eastern New York to eastern North Carolina Friday
morning. This line of storms is expected to be mostly elevated from Pennsylvania northward. From northern Virginia southward, some weak
instability is possible ahead of the front as upper 50s to near 60s
dewpoints advect northward. Forcing will be weaker farther south,
and 00Z CAM guidance supports this with a more broken line of storms
that far south. If a more consolidated, strong frontal band can
continue where the near 60s dewpoints are present, a few isolated
strong wind gusts may occur for a few hours in the morning before
the front moves offshore.

In the wake of this front, benign conditions are expected across
most of the CONUS on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible
across western Washington and far northwest Oregon, but this
thunderstorm activity should remain weak.

..Bentley.. 12/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181715
SWODY2
SPC AC 181714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large negative-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper Great
Lakes into the Southeast Friday morning, and will eject
northeastward across Mid Atlantic and New England late in the day.
At the surface, low pressure will move across southern Quebec, with
a cold front extending south from NY into the eastern Carolinas
Friday morning. This front will quickly push into New England by
midday and will already be off the NC Coast. Southerly surface winds
will bring 50s F dewpoints as far north as NJ ahead of the front,
with low 60s F into eastern NC and VA.

...Northeast...Eastern VA and NC...
Strong lift along the cold front will likely support a higher
reflectivity line of precipitation and possibly shallow convection
from eastern PA into MD and eastern VA/NC Friday morning, which will
rapidly move east toward the Hudson Valley and extending southward
and offshore between 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate a cool
boundary layer and zero SBCAPE over northern parts of the frontal
zone, with minimal SBCAPE farther south. There may be a short window
of convectively augmented wind gusts prior to the line moving
offshore, but instability, early time of day and limited lapse rates
aloft suggest minimal overall risk.

..Jewell.. 12/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190652
SWODY2
SPC AC 190650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of
Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough
over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great
Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend
across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with
an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico.

As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late
Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop
along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may
deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production.

Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper
Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to
near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region.
The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent
suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday
night.

..Bunting.. 12/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191728
SWODY2
SPC AC 191726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out near coastal sections of
Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A benign pattern for thunderstorms will exist on Saturday across
most of the CONUS with a broad belt of westerly winds aloft and high
pressure over the East. While a trough amplification will develop
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, antecedent dry
surface trajectories around the surface high will maintain stable
conditions across those areas.

To the west, minimum weak thunderstorm potential may approach
coastal WA into Sunday morning as a low-amplitude wave approaches. A
sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated instability cannot be
ruled out as well farther south across western OR into northern CA,
but the overall risk of thunderstorms is quite low.

..Jewell.. 12/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201705
SWODY2
SPC AC 201704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow aloft will become modestly more amplified on Sunday.
Upper-level ridging will become more prominent in the central U.S. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move into the Northwest during
the evening. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may impact coastal
areas of Washington and far northwest Oregon. Along the central Gulf
coast, a cold front will slow and become nearly stationary inland. A
weak warm/moist advection regime could lead to development of
showers. Given the slight rise in mid-level heights, residual
capping, and lack of greater low-level forcing, potential for
thunderstorm development within this regime still appears low.

..Wendt.. 12/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210637
SWODY2
SPC AC 210635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Model guidance continues to show an upper-level ridge and quiescent
conditions influencing weather across much of Lower 48 states on
Monday. A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the eastern
Pacific into WA and British Columbia during the period.
Increasingly cool mid-level temperatures will support pockets of
scant instability near the Pacific Northwest coast. Widely
scattered showers and perhaps a few low-topped thunderstorms may
develop along the immediate coast. Farther southeast along the
lower coast of TX within a seasonably moist airmass, weak convection
may develop but negligible forcing will likely limit convective
potential with this activity.

..Smith.. 12/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211648
SWODY2
SPC AC 211646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Minimal thunderstorm potential remains evident across much of the
CONUS on Monday, as upper-level ridging is maintained over the
central U.S. One exception may be across parts of coastal WA/OR as a
mid-level shortwave trough progresses eastward from the eastern
Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through
Monday afternoon/evening. Even though daytime heating and low-level
moisture are forecast to remain limited, cool temperatures aloft and
weak MUCAPE associated with the shortwave trough may support
occasional lightning flashes with low-topped convection moving
inland along the immediate WA/OR Coast.

A plume of mid-level moisture and associated precipitation will
impact parts of northern/central CA through the period, although
warmer mid-level temperatures compared to locations farther north
and negligible forecast instability suggest little potential for
lightning. Elsewhere, very weak forcing aloft should limit
thunderstorm potential across coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast,
even as low-level moisture gradually increases across these areas.

..Gleason.. 12/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220635
SWODY2
SPC AC 220633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...California...
An upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West
Coast on Tuesday. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale trough will likely reach the central and northern CA
coastal areas late Tuesday night. A surface low will develop and
migrate northeast reaching the OR-CA border by early Wednesday
morning. Flow will increase during the period as a 100-kt 500-mb
jet impinges on the central coastal areas of CA. Yet, only scant
instability is currently progged. This meager buoyancy will
generally focus near the coast but sporadic pockets will probably
develop farther inland over the central valleys late Tuesday night.
Low-topped convective showers and isolated thunderstorms will
gradually increase in coverage coincident with increased forcing for
ascent and instability. Given the dearth of buoyancy forecast, will
preclude the introduction of low-severe probabilities.

Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the Lower 48.

..Smith.. 12/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221714
SWODY2
SPC AC 221712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
An expansive and unseasonably strong upper ridge will dominate the
mid and upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS Day2/Tuesday. As
the ridge intensifies, troughing on the flanks of the ridge will
also strengthen. The western most trough, and a mid-level shortwave
trough embedded within it will likely reach the central and northern
CA coastal areas late Tuesday night. Strong ascent and flow aloft
will support a deepening surface low which will support onshore flow
and some thunderstorm potential over much of coastal CA/OR.

...West Coast...
As the upper trough deepens over the West Coast, strong onshore flow
will develop and support inland transport of low-level moisture
across much of coast and the CA central Valley. Cooling mid-level
temperatures and strong ascent associated with the embedded
shortwave will overspread this air mass contributing to weak
destabilization late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Low-topped
convection, capable of occasional lightning, is expected to increase
in coverage overnight. While a stronger storm is possible,
especially along and ahead of the surface cold front, the scant
buoyancy and overnight timing suggest severe potential is very low.

Elsewhere, moisture advection is likely over parts of the southern
Plains and far south TX beneath the upper ridge as the surface
reflection shifts eastward. Despite persistent southerly flow and
increasing surface dewpoints, little to no ascent and warm mid-level temperatures should preclude thunderstorm development outside of far
south TX.

..Lyons.. 12/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230702
SWODY2
SPC AC 230700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INLAND IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, hail and
potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into
Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland
across the San Jouquin Valley.

...California...
A ridge aloft will move eastward across the central U.S. on
Wednesday, as a mid-level trough moves eastward across the eastern
Pacific. Ahead of this large-scale feature, a subtle shortwave
trough will approach the California coast Wednesday afternoon. As
heights gradually fall, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture
will overspread most of California during the day. Thunderstorm
development will be possible along the central and southern
California coast, and inland across the San Joaquin Valley. The
greatest chance for severe storms will be as the left exit region of
a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves across the San Joaquin Valley
during the mid to late afternoon. Near this feature, very strong
deep-layer shear will exist and MUCAPE is expected to peak in the
500 to 750 J/kg range. This should be enough for a few
semi-organized storms with a threat for hail and marginally severe
gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. An isolated severe
threat is expected to continue into the overnight period, and may
shift southward along the coast into southern California, as a
second minor impulse approaches and moves inland.

..Broyles.. 12/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231725
SWODY2
SPC AC 231724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, small hail and
potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into
Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland
across the San Joaquin Valley.

...California Coast...
West of an imposing upper ridge building over the central US, deep
troughing will intensify Wednesday and Wednesday night over the
eastern Pacific. Several embedded disturbances will track onshore
over parts of the West Coast. Strong ascent and strengthening
onshore flow will aid in modest destabilization, first near the
southern CA coast/LA Basin and eventually farther north and inland.

A band of storms will likely be ongoing over southern CA and
adjacent waters early Wednesday morning. Strong flow aloft (1km AGL
wind 50+ kt) may mix to the surface supporting strong gusts and the
potential for a brief tornado. A second more potent shortwave and
surface low (sub 985 mb) will intensify and move near the
central/northern CA Coast into early Thursday. A broken, low-topped
band of storms along the advancing cold front may eventually move
onshore overnight with a risk for occasional strong gusts.

...San Joaquin Valley...
Across central CA, cold mid-level temperatures (-24 to -27 C),
strong height falls and the left exit of a 100+ kt mid-level jet
will overspread 50s F surface dewpoints across the northern and
central San Joaquin Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model
soundings show modest MUCAPE (max around 500 J/kg) amid veering wind
profiles and enlarged hodographs. Despite the limited buoyancy, a
few semi-organized supercells are possible. Damaging gusts, hail and
a brief tornado are possible with the strongest storms before
convection gradually moves eastward into the higher terrain and
weakens.

..Lyons.. 12/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240657
SWODY2
SPC AC 240656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential to produce marginally severe wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible on Thursday along
parts of the central California Coast.

...California Coast...
A mid-level low and an associated trough over the eastern Pacific
will gradually approach the West Coast on Thursday. Ahead of the
trough, a stream of moisture will feed into California, where
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day. At
the surface, a front is forecast to move southward along the central
California coast. To the south of the front near the coast, surface
dewpoints will be in the 50s F. In addition, a 50 to 60 knot
low-level jet is forecast to be in proximity to the higher surface
dewpoints. This feature will create strong low-level shear along the
central California coast, where some forecast soundings have curved
hodographs and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity above 250 m2/s2. This
could support a marginal severe threat, with cells that rotate
within short line segments. A brief tornado or isolated severe wind
gust will be possible.

..Broyles.. 12/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241730
SWODY2
SPC AC 241728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential to produce marginally severe wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible on Thursday along parts
of the central California Coast.

...Central California Coast...
A broad upper low with multiple embedded disturbances will continue
to linger over the West Coast Thursday. Ahead of the trough, a
stream of moisture associated with an ongoing atmospheric river will
continue overspreading much of California where numerous convective
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the day and continuing into early Friday. Buoyancy will be weak, but
MUCAPE peaking around 400 J/kg amidst the strong westerly flow could
support a couple marginally severe storms.

One of the more intense embedded features will likely move onshore
across parts of central CA early in the period before lifting
northward across southern WA Thursday evening. A strong offshore low
and cold front will likely support a broken band of low-topped
storms moving onshore early. Beneath a 50 to 60 knot southwesterly
low-level jet, flow aloft may mix down to the surface supporting
marginally severe gusts. Additionally, moderate shear in the lowest
few km could support a brief tornado with any transiently organized
storms.

A second embedded impulse is forecast to approach the coast farther
south into early Friday. Ascent ahead of the trough and a second
weaker cold front will help support another band of low-topped
storms. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding buoyancy for this
round given the overnight timing and multiple rounds of rain prior.
Still, some CAM guidance shows a narrow frontal band of low-topped
storms capable of damaging gusts or a brief tornado moving onshore
over the central Coast before 12z Friday.

..Lyons.. 12/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250657
SWODY2
SPC AC 250656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or
Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will move across the central U.S. on Friday, as a
trough moves into the western states. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible during the day from near the trough in central California
eastward into southwest Nevada. Additional thunderstorms will be
possible in the afternoon across parts of the Intermountain West as
surface temperatures warm. A third area with thunderstorm potential
will develop in parts of the central Appalachians as a shortwave
trough moves southeastward across the region. No severe threat is
expected over the continental U.S. on Friday or Friday night.

..Broyles.. 12/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251718
SWODY2
SPC AC 251717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or
Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A persistent mid-level ridge will begin to weaken as it moves across
the central U.S. Friday. At the same time, a broad trough over the
West Coast will finally move onshore and into the western states.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day across
coastal California eastward into the Great Basin/Intermountain West,
as moisture associated with the trough streams inland. Weak buoyancy
and only minimal surface heating from remnant cloud cover and
multiple days of precipitation should greatly limit severe
potential.

...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic...
A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will
intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the
Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface
low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated
destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH,
into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become
increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few
storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500
J/kg suggests severe potential is very low.

..Lyons.. 12/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260546
SWODY2
SPC AC 260544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Midwest...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible on
Saturday night/early morning Sunday, within a broad low-level warm
conveyor ahead of an expansive positive-tilt upper trough across the
West. Guidance does differ in the degree of coverage prior to 12Z
Sunday, with greater convective potential expected on D3. This
appears largely tied to the degree large-scale ascent and attendant moistening/removal of prior inhibition. Small hail seems plausible
given adequate effective bulk shear, centered on the Mid-MS Valley
vicinity. But meager elevated buoyancy is anticipated where
convection forms, rendering negligible severe hail potential.

..Grams.. 12/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261725
SWODY2
SPC AC 261723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken as
broader troughing over the West begins to move eastward. A
positive-tilt lead shortwave will move from the central Rockies over
the Plains, into the upper OH Valley Saturday and Saturday night.
Lift from this feature will deepen a surface low over the MO Valley
allowing for some return moisture and an increase in low-level warm
advection Saturday night. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop and
support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough from eastern
KS/OK into the upper OH Valley. Severe potential appears limited
owing to MUCAPE generally below 500 J/kg and the potential for any
stronger storms to mainly exist beyond 12z Sunday (Day 3).

..Lyons.. 12/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270639
SWODY2
SPC AC 270637

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability severe thunderstorm threat is forecast from Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night from Missouri-Arkansas into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.

...MO/AR to the OH/TN Valleys...
Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of
an upper trough, mainly on Sunday night, as it progresses from the
High Plains to the Great Lakes. This will induce deepening of a
surface cyclone from the Lower MO Valley towards Lake Huron.
Attendant cold front will accelerate Sunday night as it quickly
sweeps east into the Upper OH Valley and south into the northwest
Gulf by 12Z Monday.

Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are most likely on
Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS Valley to the southern
Great Lakes within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor. It is
plausible that a few updrafts might weakly rotate, but meager
buoyancy atop the stable surface and cluster convective mode appears
supportive of only small hail.

Primary forecast challenge is the degree of surface-based
destabilization by Sunday afternoon, which will largely influence
tornado and severe thunderstorm wind potential. Latest guidance
remains split into two paths. This evening's RRFS/RAP/HRRR/HRW-ARW
suggest that a plume of meager buoyancy with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg
should become established ahead of a cold front across the Ozarks to
a portion of the Mid-MS Valley near the surface cyclone by
afternoon. Meanwhile the NAM and HRW-NSSL indicate little to no
surface-based buoyancy in the warm-moist sector along the front.
Guidance consensus does suggest at least a low-topped, thin QLCS
should become established along the front from IL/IN towards AR by
early evening.

The progressive nature of the front along with the paucity of
surface-based instability downstream renders large uncertainty in
whether lightning-producing convection will be maintained Sunday
night along the front. However, kinematic fields will become
increasingly impressive, with strong gusts likely accompanying
low-topped convection along the front. CAM consensus though is for
convection to wane early morning Monday as instability remains
negligible. As such, have maintained the prior level 1-MRGL risk for
wind, with a subset of low tornado probabilities from MO to IN.

..Grams.. 12/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271735
SWODY2
SPC AC 271733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN
TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO
AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of the middle
Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon, accompanied by at least some
risk for severe weather while spreading into lower Ohio Valley
through Sunday evening. This may include potential for a tornado or
two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana.
Otherwise, potentially damaging wind gusts appears the primary
severe threat.

...Discussion...
Much of the interior U.S. remains anomalously warm, as westerlies
across the Pacific into western North America undergo amplification.
Later today through Sunday, models indicate that this will include
mid/upper ridging building inland across British Columbia and the
Pacific Northwest, through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and
adjacent Prairies/northern Great Plains. Downstream, it appears
that a pair of short wave troughs will come in phase while migrating
across and east of the Rockies, and provide support for strong
cyclogenesis. By late Sunday night, guidance generally indicates
that the center of a deep, occluding surface low will reach the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity, with a strong trailing cold front
advancing through the western slopes of the Appalachians and
northwestern Gulf/Gulf coast region.

...Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley...
There remains notable spread within/among the various model output
concerning the evolution of the developing surface cyclone across
the lower Missouri Valleys through Great Lakes region, including
timing of periods of more rapid deepening Sunday through Sunday
night. This could substantially impact the location, timing and
extent of any associated thunderstorm development and accompanying
severe weather potential.

In general, it does appear that the pre-frontal warm sector will be
relatively moist, with surface dew points near/above 60F likely as
far north as a developing warm front, east of the deepening surface
low, across parts of middle Mississippi Valley into southern Great
Lakes region, by Sunday afternoon. Convection allowing guidance and
other model output suggests that forcing for ascent along the warm
front, near and east of the low, may be the focus for highest
thunderstorm probabilities through the period. However, based on
forecast soundings, relatively warm mid-level temperatures will tend
to minimize CAPE, and the risk for severe hail and wind for
convection rooted above the cool/stable boundary layer appears
negligible.

Relatively warm air aloft appears likely to be problematic within
the surface warm sector as well, particularly given forecast weaker
mid/upper forcing for ascent. However, there does appear a
consensus in model output that a corridor of weak pre-frontal
boundary-layer destabilization could develop by early Sunday
afternoon across parts of south central/east central Missouri into
central Illinois. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer wind
fields/shear and perhaps a period of glancing mid/upper support for
upward vertical motion, there may be a window of opportunity for
strong thunderstorm development, which could spread just ahead of
the front into the Ohio Valley before diminishing Sunday evening.

Based on forecast soundings, low-level hodographs to the
east-southeast of the deepening cyclone may become conducive to
low-topped supercells posing the risk for a tornado or two across
parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana late Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, low-level hodographs, trending more linear
along the front to the southwest, will generally support a narrow
line of convection with potential mix down 40-50 kt mean flow in the
lowest 3 to 6 km.

Once thunderstorm development wanes, the potential for convectively
enhanced gusts will diminish, but strong wind gusts associated with
the cold frontal passage are likely through much of the remainder of
the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys.

..Kerr.. 12/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271755
SWODY2
SPC AC 271754

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN
TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO
AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of the middle
Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon, accompanied by at least some
risk for severe weather while spreading into the lower Ohio Valley
through Sunday evening. This may include potential for a tornado or
two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana.
Otherwise, potentially damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe
threat.

...Discussion...
Much of the interior U.S. remains anomalously warm, as westerlies
across the Pacific into western North America undergo amplification.
Later today through Sunday, models indicate that this will include
mid/upper ridging building inland across British Columbia and the
Pacific Northwest, through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and
adjacent Prairies/northern Great Plains. Downstream, it appears
that a pair of short wave troughs will come in phase while migrating
across and east of the Rockies, and provide support for strong
cyclogenesis. By late Sunday night, guidance generally indicates
that the center of a deep, occluding surface low will reach the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity, with a strong trailing cold front
advancing through the western slopes of the Appalachians and
northwestern Gulf/Gulf coast region.

...Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley...
There remains notable spread within/among the various model output
concerning the evolution of the developing surface cyclone across
the lower Missouri Valley through Great Lakes region, including
timing of periods of more rapid deepening Sunday through Sunday
night. This could substantially impact the location, timing and
extent of any associated thunderstorm development and accompanying
severe weather potential.

In general, it does appear that the pre-frontal warm sector will be
relatively moist, with surface dew points near/above 60F likely as
far north as a developing warm front, east of the deepening surface
low, across parts of middle Mississippi Valley into southern Great
Lakes region by Sunday afternoon. Convection allowing guidance and
other model output suggest that forcing for ascent along the warm
front, near and east of the low, may be the focus for highest
thunderstorm probabilities through the period. However, based on
forecast soundings, relatively warm mid-level temperatures will tend
to minimize CAPE, and the risk for severe hail and wind with
convection rooted above the cool/stable boundary layer appears
negligible.

Relatively warm air aloft appears likely to be problematic within
the surface warm sector as well, particularly given forecast weaker
mid/upper forcing for ascent. However, there does appear a
consensus in model output that a corridor of weak pre-cold frontal boundary-layer destabilization could develop by early Sunday
afternoon across parts of south central/east central Missouri into
central Illinois. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer wind
fields/shear and perhaps a period of glancing mid/upper support for
upward vertical motion, there may be a window of opportunity for
strong thunderstorm development, which could spread just ahead of
the front into the Ohio Valley before diminishing Sunday evening.

Based on forecast soundings, low-level hodographs to the
east-southeast of the deepening cyclone may become conducive to
low-topped supercells posing the risk for a tornado or two across
parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana late Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, low-level hodographs, trending more linear
along the cold front to the southwest, will generally support a
narrow line of convection with potential mix down 40-50 kt mean flow
in the lowest 3 to 6 km.

Once thunderstorm development wanes, the potential for convectively
enhanced gusts will diminish, but strong wind gusts associated with
the cold frontal passage are likely through much of the remainder of
the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys.

..Kerr.. 12/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280545
SWODY2
SPC AC 280543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday Night.

...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Monday will occlude as
it tracks into QC. A full-latitude occluded/cold front will arc
across NY to the FL Panhandle and western Gulf on Monday morning,
before clearing the entire Atlantic Seaboard by Monday night.

Scant elevated buoyancy may be present in two regimes on Monday
morning. One within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of the
occluded portion of the front across parts of eastern NY into New
England. The second immediately behind the cold front along the Rio
Grande in Deep South TX. Thunderstorm probabilities, while nonzero,
still appear to be below 10 percent in both areas. In between, weak
mid-level lapse rates should support only shallow convection across
the Southeast as the front moves east.

..Grams.. 12/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281720
SWODY2
SPC AC 281718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley, the risk for
thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Within one branch of westerlies emanating from the northern
mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate that broad mid-level ridging
will be maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest
through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent
Prairies/Great Plains through this period. Downstream troughing may
undergo further amplification as a surface cold intrusion progresses south/southeastward through the Gulf Basin. However, the primary
embedded short wave perturbation is forecast to rapidly pivot east
and northeast of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley toward the
Canadian Maritimes and northwestern Atlantic Monday through Monday
night. While the center of an associated broad, slowly deepening
and occluding surface cyclone shifts east-northeast of Lake
Huron/Georgian Bay through southern Quebec, it appears a secondary
surface low may develop across northern New England into the lower
St. Lawrence Valley. In its wake, the trailing cold front is
forecast to rapidly advance east/southeast of the Appalachians, and
well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday.

....Lower Great Lakes into New England...
NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that
lower/mid-tropospheric warming and moistening, preceding the
secondary surface frontal wave development, will contribute to weak
elevated destabilization across portions of eastern New York state
through New England during the day Monday. This may contribute to
deeper convective development embedded within an evolving broader
precipitation shield. The extent to which this could become capable
of producing lightning remains a bit unclear, but probabilities for
weak thunderstorms still seem best characterized as less than 10
percent.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley...
NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, and other model output,
suggest that widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible
along or just behind the cold front as it advances across Deep South
Texas late tonight. Timing of the frontal passage and associated
convection through the lower Rio Grande around Brownsville remains
uncertain, but low thunderstorm probabilities may linger an hour or
two beyond 12Z Monday.

..Kerr.. 12/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290534
SWODY2
SPC AC 290532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.

..Grams.. 12/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291645
SWODY2
SPC AC 291644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
In the wake of multiple cold-frontal passages, dry and stable
conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across
the CONUS through the period.

..Dean.. 12/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300543
SWODY2
SPC AC 300541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New
Year's Day along coastal southern California.

...Coastal southern CA...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore
of coastal southern CA through 12Z Thursday. The compact mid-level
cold core might reach the Channel Islands, with generally slight
cooling farther east. This may be sufficient for charge separation
near the end of the period, as low-topped convection is expected to
increase overnight ahead of the trough. Despite modest low-level
hodograph curvature, weak effective bulk shear amid a meager
buoyancy profile suggests convection should remain too
shallow/disorganized for an appreciable severe threat.

..Grams.. 12/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301725
SWODY2
SPC AC 301723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New
Year's Day along coastal southern California.

...Coastal southern CA...
An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject
northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA
by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast
to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday).
However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support
isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the
Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some
enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system
approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear,
organized severe potential appears low.

..Dean.. 12/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310655
SWODY2
SPC AC 310653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL
SOUTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a
portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.

...CA and the Southwest...
Guidance continues a decidedly northward trend to the evolution of
the compact shortwave trough, currently west of southern CA. Latest
indications are for this wave to reach the San Joaquin Valley around
midday Thursday, before slightly dampening over the southern Great
Basin. Thunderstorm potential appears greatest on Thursday morning
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across southern
CA. Despite the early time of day, activity along the coast should
be surface-based along the periphery of low 60s dew points. Buoyancy/instability will remain meager, given the expected
northerly track of the wave and attendant mesoscale cold core
displaced from the richer moisture plume. But guidance is consistent
with the depiction of 40-50 kt 700-mb flow across the Transverse
Ranges through midday. With some low-level hodograph curvature and
several CAMs suggestive of at least one rotating cell in the LA
Basin vicinity, have opted to include a small level 1-MRGL risk for
wind and tornado.

Confidence remains low in the degree of thunderstorm potential
farther north and east. Lower-level moisture east of CA should be
greater across AZ, but this may remain displaced too far south of
the latest consensus for the mid-level cold core. It is plausible
that much of the convection from the Central Valley to AZ will
remain low-topped, with thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent
or less.

..Grams.. 12/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311726
SWODY2
SPC AC 311724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
SOUTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a
portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.

...Southern CA...
A compact midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts
of southern CA toward the San Joaquin Valley through the day, before
dampening somewhat as it approaches the Great Basin during the
evening. The strongest DCVA and cooling aloft will generally be
displaced north of the most favorable low-level moisture, but some
thunderstorm potential will continue to accompany this system for at
least the first part of the day.

The greatest relative potential for surface-based convection appears
to be across immediate coastal areas of southern CA and adjacent
offshore regions, where surface dewpoints are forecast to increase
into the low 60s F. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly
strong, but 30-40 kt of 700 mb flow and modest enlargement of
low-level hodographs could support potential for weakly rotating
storms. While confidence in sufficiently robust convection is not
high, locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out with any stronger cells near the coast, primarily during the
morning.

..Dean.. 12/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010643
SWODY2
SPC AC 010642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.

...Central Gulf Coast and the Deep South...
A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should move across the Mid-South
to the southern Appalachians. An upstream shortwave trough will
progress from the Four Corners east-southeast across north TX. The
00Z NAM is an outlier with its phasing of these features, while
other guidance maintains separate impulses. Weak elevated MUCAPE is
anticipated with the lead impulse, along the northern periphery of
lower-level moisture return emanating northeast of the northwest
Gulf. Sufficient saturation/ascent should occur for increasing
convection on Friday evening across parts of the interior Deep South
to TN Valley. The southern portion of this activity may yield
isolated thunder coverage on Friday night.

Farther south, the outlier NAM appears aggressive with early morning
Saturday convective development near the central Gulf Coast, amid
strong deep-layer shear and modest near-surface buoyancy. However,
most other parametrized guidance and especially CAMs struggle to
generate deep convection through 12Z Saturday given weak lapse rates
and rather dry mid-levels. Unconditional probabilities for hazard
still appear to be below level-1 MRGL risk thresholds.

...Northern CA and southwest OR...
A deep mid/upper trough will gradually approach the Pacific Coast
through early Saturday, as an intense jet spreads into northern CA.
Despite an initially pronounced low-level warm conveyor, instability
is expected to remain negligible until Friday night. Gradual
steepening of mid-level lapse rates should occur along coastal areas
of northern CA and southwest OR, and potentially reach the
Sacramento Valley prior to 12Z. This may support very isolated
thunderstorm development overnight to early Saturday morning. Any lightning-producing convection could be coincident with strong
gradient winds, but the convective contribution to damaging-wind
potential will likely be limited by the expected scant buoyancy.

..Grams.. 01/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011714
SWODY2
SPC AC 011712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the
south-central Plains toward the TN Valley through the period, while
a somewhat more vigorous shortwave progresses east-southeastward
from the Four Corners region toward the lower MS Valley. The
combination of these features will result in an elongated surface
low that will extend from northern MS/AL toward southern LA by
Friday evening.

Returning low-level moisture will result in a somewhat conditionally
favorable environment Friday afternoon from parts of LA into
southern MS, as MLCAPE increases to around 500 J/kg amid
strengthening deep-layer shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates
and generally weak ascent across the warm sector may tend to limit surface-based storm potential, with most guidance showing no diurnal development across this area. A strengthening low-level jet will aid
in the development of elevated convection Friday evening, mainly
across parts of central/northern MS/AL/GA. Weak buoyancy should tend
to limit the organized severe threat with any elevated storms.
Convection may also tend to increase along the immediate central
Gulf Coast near the end of the period, but warm midlevel
temperatures are expected to limit storm depth and intensity in this
area through 12Z Saturday morning.

...Northern CA into southwest OR...
A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded deep-layer cyclone will
gradually approach the central and northern Pacific Coast through
the period. Within the large-scale trough, an embedded vorticity
maximum is forecast to approach northern CA and southwest OR by mid
to late evening. Colder temperatures aloft and some steepening of
midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region as this vorticity
maximum moves through, which will increase the threat for sporadic
lightning flashes with any stronger convective elements.

Most CAM guidance depicts development of a narrow rain band in
association with the lead vorticity maximum, which moves over
immediate coastal regions between 03-06Z. This band may be
coincident with gusty/locally damaging winds, given the
strengthening background wind field (50+ kt at 850 mb). However,
with stronger cooling aloft and steepening of low-level lapse rates
generally only expected in the wake of this band, the extent to
which any deeper convective processes contribute to wind-damage
potential is uncertain and may remain limited.

..Dean.. 01/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020649
SWODY2
SPC AC 020647

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND PARTS OF CA/OR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.

...Southeast...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower
MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An
attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to
offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to
the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should
increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of
thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by
midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be
modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through
the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with
low-probability tornado/wind threats.

It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS
River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level
flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector
ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist
for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce
isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as
storms cluster during the afternoon.

...Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR...
Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting
northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The
southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon,
while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during
the afternoon to early evening.

The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal
convective development across the Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated
hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells,
which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado.
Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur.

The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed
strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the
northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold
mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection
that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating
cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast
with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk.

..Grams.. 01/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021726
SWODY2
SPC AC 021725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OREGON
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.

...Southeast...
Late-morning surface observations across the TX/LA/MS region show
the early stages of moisture return ahead of a gradually deepening
surface low to the west across the southern Plains. The ejection of
a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation (noted in water-vapor imagery
over the Four Corners region as of 17 UTC) will lead to modest
strengthening and an eastward progression of the surface low into
the Southeast states through Saturday evening.

Thunderstorms will likely develop within the warm/moist advection
regime and along a weak surface trough/cold front by mid/late
afternoon across portions of AL, GA, and northern FL. A plume of low
to mid-60s dewpoints will likely become established by late
afternoon across the FL Panhandle into southern GA, and should
support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg, though ongoing showers/thunderstorms may modulate overall destabilization to some
degree. 50-knot mid-level flow will support adequate deep-layer
shear for organized convection, including the potential for
semi-discrete supercells before gradual upscale growth occurs
through late afternoon/evening. Some severe wind/hail and tornado
threat is expected to materialize, but uncertainty regarding the
degree of destabilization within the warm sector and storm mode
limits confidence for higher risk probabilities. This uncertainty is
reflected in 12z CAM/HREF guidance, which depicts only modest
signals for intense convection. That said, a more focused corridor
of severe risk may emerge along the FL/GA line where the convective
environment should be relatively most favorable for supercells.

...Central Valley into the CA/OR Coasts...
A strong upper trough off the West Coast is expected to move inland
over the next 24 hours. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms
will likely spread across northern CA and OR through peak heating
when modest low-level moisture (low 50s dewpoints) will likely
support a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Southerly low-level flow through
the Central Valley will maintain some low-level hodograph curvature
that may be favorable for a brief tornado or two. Additionally,
40-45 flow between the 1-3 km layer may augment downdraft winds and
support sporadic wind damage and perhaps a few severe gusts.

..Moore.. 01/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030645
SWODY2
SPC AC 030644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Low-probability thunder potential exists across a broad portion of
the West Coast and CA Central Valley, as well as in southeast FL.

Across the West, the next in a series of shortwave troughs will
approach the Pacific Northwest coast by late afternoon-early evening
Sunday. Farther south, low-amplitude shortwave impulses should
gradually move east across central/southern CA to the eastern Great
Basin. Minimal buoyancy will remain a limiting factor to greater
than very isolated thunder coverage. But cold mid-level temperatures
will favor potential for sporadic lightning flashes that diurnally
peak during the afternoon to early evening.

Over southeast FL, a minority of guidance indicates potential for
convection to briefly develop along a weak cold front sinking south.
Gradual mid-level warming is expected through the afternoon, as a
lingering trough shifts towards the Bahamas, limiting the temporal
window for deep convection to form. Thunderstorm probabilities
appear to be around 10 percent.

..Grams.. 01/03/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031719
SWODY2
SPC AC 031717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
The potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited for Sunday
across the country. A cold front currently migrating across the
lower MS Valley and into the Southeast today will continue pushing
southward along the FL Peninsula through tomorrow. Weak forcing for
ascent, warm mid-level temperatures, and diminishing wind shear will
largely limit the potential for strong convection, though a few
lightning flashes appear possible along the southeast FL coast.

Across the West, a secondary upper wave approaching the West Coast
will begin to move onshore through the day. Cool mid-level
temperatures combined with broad-scale ascent may support sporadic
lightning flashes during the afternoon/evening hours across CA's
Central Valley and along the CA/OR/WA coastline. Occasional
lightning is also possible across parts of northern UT and adjacent
areas of ID/WY where warm low-level conditions near the Great Salt
Lake may support adequate buoyancy for weak convection.

..Moore.. 01/03/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040642
SWODY2
SPC AC 040641

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.

...Discussion...
Isolated thunderstorm coverage should be confined to two regimes in
the West on Monday. A basal shortwave trough will become a closed
low as it becomes cutoff and drifts south off coastal CA. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the morning, along a
portion of the north-central CA coast amid scant buoyancy prior to
the offshore wave dropping southward. Farther east, low-amplitude
shortwave impulses will shift from the eastern Great Basin across
the southern Rockies to the central High Plains by afternoon. Near
these disturbances, cold mid-level temperatures may support minimal
buoyancy for sporadic lightning with low-topped convection from
morning to mid-afternoon.

..Grams.. 01/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041714
SWODY2
SPC AC 041713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.

...Synopsis...
The potential for strong/severe thunderstorms remains low for Monday
across the country. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the
northern CA coast Monday morning through early afternoon as cool
temperatures aloft/weak buoyancy associated with an upper trough
spread south/southeastward before shifting offshore later in the
day. Further east, one or more weak upper-level disturbances moving
across the northern Great Basin may support adequate ascent and
mid-level destabilization for sporadic lightning flashes during the
afternoon hours. For both regimes, buoyancy profiles will be too
limited to support an appreciable strong/severe thunderstorm threat.

..Moore.. 01/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050635
SWODY2
SPC AC 050634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions may remain too dry/stable for lightning-producing
convection across the CONUS through the period. A couple areas of
very limited potential remain evident. One across the southern Great
Lakes where minimal elevated buoyancy might support a brief
thunderstorm on Tuesday morning within a mixed-phase precipitation
swath attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse. Another area
will be over northwest WA where scant buoyancy may develop towards
12Z Wednesday. Large-scale ascent with an upstream shortwave trough
should strengthen mainly later Wednesday morning, suggesting that
thunder probabilities for D2 appear to be below 10 percent.

..Grams.. 01/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051717
SWODY2
SPC AC 051715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential remains limited across the country for
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Latest guidance continues to show dry
and/or stable conditions across the CONUS, which will limit the
potential for lightning production. Isolated lightning strikes
appear possible along/just off the WA coast between 9-12 UTC
Wednesday as an upper low approaches the coast. However, model
consensus is limited regarding the degree of inland buoyancy, so
confidence remains low in thunderstorm potential. A sporadic
lightning flash or two may also be possible across the lower Great
Lakes within a weak warm advection regime, but as with the WA coast,
confidence in any appreciable buoyancy remains too limited for 10%
thunderstorm coverage.

..Moore.. 01/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060658
SWODY2
SPC AC 060656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTH TX INTO OK...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night from
west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.

...Southern Plains...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near Baja California is
forecast to eject east-northeastward and take on a negative tilt as
it approaches the Southern Plains Wednesday night. Previously slower
guidance (such as the EC-AIFS and GFS) has trended toward a somewhat
faster solution with this system. A surface low is forecast to
deepen over the south-central High Plains during the evening.
Low-level moisture will spread northward, with 60s F dewpoints
potentially reaching the Red River region prior to the end of the
period.

As ascent attendant to the shortwave trough impinges upon the
increasing low-level moisture, thunderstorm development is expected
Wednesday night across parts of west/north TX into OK, which may
spread toward the Ozark Plateau prior to 12Z Thursday.
Initial MUCAPE of near/above 500 J/kg and increasing deep-layer
shear could support some storm organization.

There may be a brief window for near-surface-based development
near/after 03Z across parts of west-central TX, but the bulk of
convection will likely be somewhat elevated. The buoyancy profile
will be hampered by poor mid/upper-level lapse rates, and lingering near-surface stability will likely persist across most of the warm
sector, resulting in uncertainty regarding severe potential with any
organized cells/clusters. However, given the expectation for
strongly forced convection Wednesday night within a favorably
sheared environment, a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible, and hail cannot be ruled out
with initial development, before buoyancy becomes increasingly
depleted with time. Given the strength of low-level shear/SRH, the
potential for near-surface-based development will continue to be
monitored regarding any tornado threat.

...Pacific Northwest coast...
Low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be
possible through at least the morning and afternoon near the Pacific
Northwest coast, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across
the region. Cold temperatures aloft (less than -30C at 500 mb) will
support meager buoyancy (with MUCAPE generally 100-200 J/kg),
primarily near and in the wake of a cold front. Relatively strong
low-level flow could support gusty winds with this convection,
though the very weak buoyancy is expected to limit organized severe
potential.

..Dean.. 01/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061717
SWODY2
SPC AC 061716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night into
Thursday morning from west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.

...Southern Plains...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward
across the Southwest through the day, reaching the southern High
Plains late in the period. Related lee cyclogenesis will favor a
strengthening nocturnal low-level jet and the northward return of
weakly modified Gulf moisture into a cool/statically stable boundary
layer over the southern Plains overnight. This, combined with
modestly steepened midlevel lapse rates preceding the trough, will
yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE across the developing warm sector.

A band of warm-advection-driven showers and widely scattered
thunderstorms will develop from west-central TX into OK during the
06-12Z time frame. Despite limited buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective
shear may promote a couple loosely organized cells and small line
segments, though most of this activity is expected to remain
slightly elevated. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts
will be possible with the more organized storms that evolve.

...Pacific Northwest...
In the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet impinging on the
Pacific Northwest Coast, a strongly forced, low-topped convective
band is expected along a cold front overspreading the region. While
locally strong gusts will be possible, the combination of weak
buoyancy and lack of stronger low-level flow limits confidence in
severe-gust potential.

..Weinman.. 01/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070702
SWODY2
SPC AC 070700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid MS
Valley...
A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated
surface low will move quickly northeastward from the southern High
Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will
impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and MUCAPE of near/above
500 J/kg from late D1/Wednesday into early D2/Thursday morning,
resulting in thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear will be
quite favorable, and the strongest morning storms may be capable of
producing localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail. The Marginal
Risk area has been expanded westward across OK and southern KS, with
recent guidance indicating a slightly slower shortwave timing. Most
guidance suggests morning convection may remain slightly elevated,
but low tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence
increases in surface-based storm development from central OK into
southeast KS.

With time, the morning storms will encounter decreasing buoyancy,
but if organized convection can be sustained, then some threat for
localized damaging wind could spread toward the mid MS Valley and
possibly a larger portion of the Midwest and lower OH Valley, in
conjunction with the ejecting shortwave. The northeast extent of
severe potential remains uncertain, with the shortwave expected to
eventually outpace returning low-level moisture.

Farther south, severe potential becomes more conditional from parts
of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South, with stronger ascent expected to
remain north of this region. While buoyancy will remain weak,
low-level and deep-layer shear will be strong. Guidance remains
inconsistent regarding the development of deep convection in this
region, with the ECMWF and RRFS being somewhat more aggressive,
while other guidance is generally more muted. If robust convection
can develop within this environment, then some threat for locally
damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve from late
afternoon into part of Thursday night.

...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.

..Dean.. 01/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071724
SWODY2
SPC AC 071723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley...
Within a belt of broad/enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow, a
negative-tilt shortwave trough and accompanying surface low will
track northeastward from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes
through the period.

Strongly forced thunderstorms will be ongoing/spreading
east-northeastward across OK at the start of the period. While poor
midlevel lapse rates and only partially modified Gulf moisture will
limit buoyancy for these storms, 50-60 kt of effective shear will
support a few organized clusters/line segments and perhaps transient
supercell structures. Isolated large hail will be the primary
concern, though locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado will be
possible with any surface-based storms that can evolve.

This activity will spread/develop northeastward into the Ozarks and
eventually the Lower OH Valley vicinity through the
afternoon/evening, in tandem with the midlevel trough and surface
low. Here, boundary-layer moisture and related buoyancy will become
more limited with northward extent, though strengthening deep-layer
flow/shear (to include a 50-kt low-level jet) will continue to
support a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and
possibly a brief tornado. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible
through this corridor into the overnight hours ahead of an
approaching front. Farther southeast, recent high-resolution
guidance depicts a band of storms developing within broad/moist
confluent low-level flow over the Lower MS Valley late in the
period. While these storms will be on the eastern edge of the warm
sector, strong low/deep-layer shear will yield a conditional severe
risk.

...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.

..Weinman.. 01/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080701
SWODY2
SPC AC 080659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF LA/MS
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from Louisiana into
parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.

...East TX into the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South...
In the wake of a departing mid/upper shortwave trough and surface
low, a cold front is forecast to slow down by afternoon and perhaps
become nearly stationary from near the ArkLaTex region to the
Mid-South. As an upstream mid/upper trough approaches from the west, cyclogenesis is expected along this front, with the surface low
expected to move east-northeastward toward the TN Valley by Saturday
morning.

Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place within the warm
sector of this cyclone, and low-level and deep-layer shear will
increase with time as the frontal wave develops. However, guidance
continues to vary somewhat regarding the extent of phasing between
the approaching shortwave trough across the southern Plains and a
strong shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian
Prairies. There are also varying solutions regarding the coverage of
early-day convection, and the extent to which it hampers warm-sector destabilization as low-level and deep-layer shear strengthens.

Early-day storms within the modest warm-advection regime from east
TX into the lower MS Valley could pose a low-probability threat of
all severe hazards. An increase in the severe potential could evolve
from late afternoon into the evening, as low-level and deep-layer
shear begin to strengthen in response to the approaching trough.
Organized clusters and a few supercells will be possible, with an
attendant damaging-wind and tornado threat that may continue into
late Friday night. However, if early-day convection becomes
widespread with increasingly prominent outflow (as indicated by some
00Z HREF members), the magnitude and north/east extent of the
organized severe threat may be relatively limited. The greatest
relative confidence in an organized severe threat is currently
across parts of LA into central/southern MS, with a more conditional
threat to the north and east of this area.

..Dean.. 01/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081729
SWODY2
SPC AC 081728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Friday from the central Gulf
Coast into parts of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys.

...East TX into the Lower MS/TN/OH Valleys...
At the start of the period, a midlevel shortwave trough and
accompanying surface cyclone will be departing the Great Lakes
region, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves eastward
across the OH and TN Valleys -- stalling with southward extent
across the lower MS Valley and western Gulf Coast. Bands of
thunderstorms will be ongoing within a plume of low-level warm
advection along/ahead of the front -- within an environment
characterized by strong deep-layer flow/shear and limited buoyancy.
Given the expected linear nature of these storms amid strong
low-level flow, damaging gusts will be the primary concern before
this activity outpaces the warm sector with eastward extent.

Farther south and west, a broad midlevel trough will move eastward
across the southern Plains toward the MS Valley through the period.
Guidance has trended generally slower with this feature in recent
runs, with only modest midlevel height falls impinging on the
frontal zone and warm sector during the peak convective period. As a
result, the overall low-level mass response appears to be somewhat
muted compared to earlier runs, with initial frontal-wave
development farther south near LA.

Nevertheless, strengthening low-level warm advection east of the
developing frontal wave/surface cyclone will yield an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity within confluence bands from the
central Gulf Coast northward into the lower MS and TN Valleys during
the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Here, upper 60s to
near 70 dewpoints (already in place along the central Gulf Coast)
will spread northward and destabilize the inland air mass. Despite
modest buoyancy, this rich moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear
(with increasing low-level hodograph size/curvature) will favor a
mix of semi-discrete supercells and clusters -- posing a risk of
damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. Depending on the strength of
the low-level jet/mass response, a corridor of higher severe
potential will be possible from parts of LA into southern/central
MS.

Additional thunderstorm development/intensification is possible in
east TX along/ahead of the stalling front during the afternoon,
where sufficient buoyancy and a long/straight hodograph will support
a couple organized storms and attendant risk of damaging winds and
severe hail.

..Weinman.. 01/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090642
SWODY2
SPC AC 090640

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

...Southeast/Carolinas/Southern Virginia...
At the start of the period, a large-scale upper-level trough will be
located from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with an
associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet over the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. The southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow
will be over the Southeast, where a moist airmass will be in place
Saturday morning. Within this airmass, low-level convergence ahead
of a cold front will contribute to the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi Valley
northeastward into the southern Appalachians. Weak instability along
the moist axis along with moderate deep-layer shear, will likely be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat early in the day. This
threat is expected to develop into parts of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia by midday, as a low-level jet translates
northeastward. A brief tornado could occur near the low-level jet.
However, the primary threat should be wind damage with the stronger
short line segments. Lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which
should keep any severe threat marginal.

..Broyles.. 01/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091730
SWODY2
SPC AC 091728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast on Saturday across the
central Gulf Coast and Southeast.

...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Along and south of an outflow-reinforced cold front extending across
central AL into southern MS, scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing
across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast at the start of the
period. These storms will generally be focused along a 30-40-kt
southwesterly low-level jet and ahead of a northeastward-moving
frontal wave.

Despite modest buoyancy, ample boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper
60s dewpoints) and around 50 kt of effective shear will continue to
promote organized storm clusters, to include the potential for a
couple supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern, though enlarged clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200-250 m2/s2
effective SRH) within the moist axis will yield some risk for a
couple tornadoes as well. The tornado risk will be largely dependent
on the degree of convective overturning in the warm sector. The
window of greatest severe risk appears to be from 12Z-18Z -- before
low-level flow veers ahead of the approaching front and departing
frontal wave. A SLGT risk was added for this corridor of heightened
severe potential.

Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward across GA into the
Carolinas in tandem with the northeastward-advancing low-level jet
and frontal wave, where they will eventually outpace the
surface-based warm sector during the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 01/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100645
SWODY2
SPC AC 100643

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough over the mid Mississippi Valley will move to
the Atlantic Seaboard on Sunday, as northwesterly mid-level flow
becomes established over much of the central and eastern part of the
U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will remain over the south-central and southeastern U.S. The pattern will keep a dry and
cool airmass in place over most of the continental U.S., making
thunderstorm development unlikely in the U.S. Sunday and Sunday
night.

..Broyles.. 01/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101707
SWODY2
SPC AC 101705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper trough and attendant deep-layer cyclone will move
across the eastern CONUS during the day on Sunday, and then over the
Canadian Maritimes and off of the Atlantic Coast by Sunday night.
The primary cold front will move through coastal NC and the FL
Peninsula through the day. While weak buoyancy may be in place at
the start of the period near the NC Outer Banks and portions of the
FL Peninsula, weak ascent and lapse rates are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential.

An embedded midlevel shortwave trough and secondary cold front will
move through parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid
Atlantic through the day. In association with these features,
shallow convection is expected to develop across parts of the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorm
potential appears generally limited by very meager to negligible
buoyancy, though gusty winds and perhaps very sporadic and isolated
lightning flashes could accompany these shallow convective bands.

..Dean.. 01/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110659
SWODY2
SPC AC 110658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place from the northern
Rockies southeastward to the Appalachians on Monday, as a shortwave
trough moves southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, high pressure will remain over the south-central and
southeastern U.S. keeping dry and cool conditions in place over much
of the nation. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development
across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 01/11/2026

$$

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