AWUS01 KWNH 200542
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1233
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200540Z - 201010Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible over portions of central TX including the Hill
Country through 10Z. Localized totals of 2 to 4+ inches may occur
over a relatively short period of time.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery through 0530Z showed widely
scattered coverage of thunderstorms over central TX with an
increasingly concerning cluster near/south of JCT with only small
net-movement over the past hour. The environment over central TX
contained anomalous precipitable water values of 1.3 to 1.7 inches
and 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (SPC mesoanalysis and area soundings from
00Z) with moisture contributions from the tropical eastern Pacific
in the mid/upper levels and Gulf of America in the lower levels.
0-6 km mean layer winds were a progressive 20-30 kt toward the
northeast but sufficient speed shear was present for organized
cells and slower storm motions right of the mean wind.

While larger scale forcing ahead of a strong mid to upper level
trough/closed low over the CA/AZ border was still well west of TX,
the low level response out ahead of this feature was SSE 925-850
mb winds of 20-30 kt with increasing low level moisture values
into central TX since Wednesday evening as seen on OSPO LPW
imagery in the surface-850 mb layer. Transient axes of low level
convergence and upslope flow into the Edwards Plateau are expected
to continue to support small clusters of thunderstorms with mean
movement off toward the northeast. However, there will likely be
areas of upstream convective redevelopment which will allow for
training and repeating cells at times. Peak hourly rainfall of 1
to 2 inches (locally higher) is expected within SW to NE axes of
training with 3-hr totals of 2-4 inches, although idealized
training over a particular location has the potential for rainfall
totals over 4 inches in 3 hours. Current thinking is that the
coverage of flash flooding through 10Z will remain low enough to
keep the "flash flooding possible" wording on this message given
dry antecedent conditions, but concerns for rapid rises of water
will exist across portions of the sensitive Hill Country despite
the dry antecedent grounds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_LYpBNhMlhdGrOmNgOUQY3aTCioz2NPMkd1VVanuIvyaHF12_R4dS_2zri_aZ5-ZJWhe= ULn-yQhCMPB3_j4eFKk9eD4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32119869 31429791 30329826 29749881 29269946=20
28930081 29550147 30710103 31759995=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

AWUS01 KWNH 200802
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-201400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1234
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...northeastern TX, southeastern OK into
south-central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200800Z - 201400Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northeastern TX, southeastern OK into south-central AR
through the early morning hours. 2 to 4 inches of rain in 2-3
hours is expected within idealized training, but the threat is
expected to primarily exist across urban areas or other locations
with poor drainage.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms were observed on 0730Z
radar/infrared satellite imagery over portions of northern TX into
southern OK. These storms were located beneath broad southwesterly
flow aloft, with low level warm advection helping aid ascent over
the region. While forcing for ascent was not strongly defined over
any particular region of TX/OK/AR, leading to a somewhat
disorganized pattern on radar imagery, trends have shown an
increasing coverage in the number of cells over the past few
hours, with movement off toward the northeast. MLCAPE was between
500-1500 J/kg with varying degrees of CIN, though many of the
ongoing cells were likely a bit elevated above the surface.
Moisture values were anomalously high for mid-November with
GPS-derived PW values between 1.5 to just over 1.7 inches as of
06Z in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth region.

Continued low level warm advection with transient axes of low
level convergence are likely to maintain scattered thunderstorms
with areas of short term training capable of producing 1 to 2
inches of rain in an hour, and 3-hr totals of 2 to 4 inches. Mean
movement of small thunderstorm clusters should continue off toward
the northeast but upstream development and training will
potentially result in flash flooding should these higher rainfall
totals overlap with an urban or otherwise poorly draining
location.

The 06Z and 07Z WoFS seems to have locked onto a signal for higher
rainfall potential with the 07Z cycle indicating a 40-50 percent
chance of exceeding 3 inches through the 11-12Z time frame within
an axis covering northeastern Dallas County into southern Collin
County. However, given a lack of rainfall over at least the past
2-3 weeks, flash flood guidance is relatively high which should
limit the coverage of flash flooding over the next 3-6 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6D9fBgG0juDuoIIa30dzEkqdMbIIT5lBWjkA6bza_T8Tuc7n0CKIf3us7JMPxYLFw189= L9C8giu8UUC8lF9h_ZMtH68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35659111 34999049 34359073 33769204 32719464=20
32339727 32669814 33959781 35169407=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

AWUS01 KWNH 201019
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1235
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201015Z - 201600Z

Summary...Another round of heavy rain with flash flood potential
appears to be organizing across western portions of the Edwards
Plateau. Areas of training are likely to produce hourly rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches and 3-hr totals of 2-4 inches (locally higher)
across portions of central TX. A few instances of flash flooding
will be likely through 16Z.

Discussion...Between 09-10Z, thunderstorm coverage has been
increasing across western portions of the Edwards Plateau, from
near SJT, south-southwest toward the Rio Grande. This recent
increase could be related to increasing ascent ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough over AZ and northwestern Mexico,
which was beginning to acquire a negative tilt, but was still
located a bit west of the region. In addition, 925-850 mb winds
remained in the 20-30 kt range from the S to SSE, continuing to
transport anomalous low level moisture northward from the western
Gulf into central TX where 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE was estimated by
the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis page. Orographic lift across the Edwards
Plateau and a recent increase of low level convergence are also
contributing factors to the recent expansion of thunderstorms.

Recent RAP guidance indicates an axis or axes of low level
convergence aligning from Val Verde County toward the vicinity of
San Angelo through 16Z, matching the orientation of the mean
steering flow from the SSW. This signal, when combined with weak
right-entrance region divergence tied to an upper level jet east
of the upper level trough, is expected to result in areas of
training with 1 to 2 inches of rain per hour, and 2 to 4 inches of
rain in 3 hours or less time (locally higher possible). In
addition, recent WoFS guidance has been increasing probabilities
for 2+ inches of rain from near Val Verde County, north to
northeastward to just southeast of San Angelo over the next few
hours, with the 09Z cycle displaying a 40-70 percent probability
of exceeding 2 inches through 15Z across this corridor. The
anomalously moist environment will support locally high rainfall
intensities which should overcome dry antecedent conditions,
supporting at least a localized flash flood concern over the next
3-6 hours, with locally considerable impacts possible across any urban/impervious surfaces.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ctK3IvwUmNeuhMpezkSQKaDUREe_ipyjQqaaIn2NaAU7AYk0d1dAsqSQkMepj0XxAgP= CN2QcatTu6iZMWjZ_M4i8LQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32389946 32119884 31699846 30639852 29619945=20
28910033 29010170 30760171 32090080=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

AWUS01 KWNH 201653
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1236
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...North TX into southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201650Z - 202230Z

Summary...Additional rainfall of 1.5-3.0" (and locally higher) is
likely to result in scattered instances of flash flooding (and may
be locally significant).

Discussion...Low-level convergence upstream (southwest) of the DFW
metro has gradually consolidated a SSE to NNW training segment of
convection across portions of North TX with hourly totals now
approaching 2"/hr (per MRMS estimates). This line of showers and
thunderstorms is occurring along a ThetaE gradient well to the
east of the primary front (near the Rolling Plains and Cap Rock
south of the TX Panhandle) with precipitable water values of
1.5-1.7" (near record values, and well above the FWD 90th
percentile of ~1.2"), ML CAPE of 500-750 J/kg, and substantial
deep layer shear of 45-55 kts. As southerly low-level moisture
transport has recently ramped up, expect a period of several
several more hours of off and on heavy rainfall (with an even more
impressive train of showers is ongoing farther southwest over the
TX Hill Country, likely to move into the region while still
possibly maintaining 2-3"/hr rainfall rates).

The bulk of the hi-res guidance suggests an addition 1.5-3.0" of
rainfall over the next 3-6 hours (per 12z HREF probability matched
mean QPF) with the potential for localized 3" exceedance (per
40-km HREF >3" probs of 20-40%). With a narrow swath of 2-4" of
rainfall already having fallen over the past 6-12 hours (per NSSL
estimates), Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) are as low as 1.5-2.5" (and
even lower to the northwest of the metro area where the maximum
rainfall occured). Given these wet antecedent conditions and the
potential for additional significant heavy rainfall, scattered
instances of flash flooding are likely (and may locally be
significant, particularly across more sensitive urbanized terrain
and where streamflows are already elevated).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4irV483kYzdvk4QIYc2rRMeSYNgBQuyC8Mbjbl2gVhfVg5U5hcn2wKp_0KEqSN__j6v1= gifA8jUNzsMY1UilaXWyX64$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34779506 34749469 34609448 34149451 33739464=20
33489482 33219549 32879604 32429662 32159723=20
32019790 32539822 32949780 33239739 33529712=20
33869700 34159660 34509605 34679554=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

AWUS01 KWNH 201807
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1237
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
106 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...South-Central TX into the Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201800Z - 210000Z

Summary...Additional rainfall of 1.5-3.0" (and locally higher)
over portions of already saturated areas is likely to continue
scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding (with
expectations for locally significant flash flooding developing).

Discussion...Sustained training convection has resulted in a
narrow swath of heavy rainfall (2-5" over the past 3-6 hours, per
MRMS estimates) through the morning hours. While numerous (but
very geographically focused) flash floods are ongoing in portions
of the TX Hill Country, concerns are growing for continued
worsening of impacts as persistent low-level moisture transport
and convergence have coincided with destabilization just upstream
of the hardest hit areas (to the southwest into portions of
South-Central TX near Del Rio). The mesoscale environment is
otherwise characterized by precipitable water values of 1.4-1.7"
(near daily records, as DRT sounding climatology indicates a 90th
percentile of ~1.2"), most-unstable CAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg, and
substantial deep layer shear of 55-65 kts. While a dry line is
slowly approaching the region from the west, this is likely only
increasing the low-level forcing over the next several hours with
the expectation that the feature will stall west of Del Rio.

Going forward, there is strong agreement among the hi-res CAMs for
an additional 1.5-3.0" of rainfall (with at least one run of the
HRRR indicating localized totals of up to 5", as well as HREF 3"
exceedance probabilities of 15-25%). Given the wet antecedent
conditions (and the already relatively sensitive terrain of
portions of the Hill Country), continued scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are likely (including some locally
significant instances of flash flooding, as FFGs of 1.5" are lower
are indicated across already hard hit areas).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8gm6zExzPuqInA_FHv9lwYjvY6HraxezaB7ugrj84BH-qx3gctoRT7BOcYLMUDXdCSzx= G3klA6fn0bwz91ueqDS-uDc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32459847 32329806 31959765 31639764 31299797=20
30989823 30639859 30139902 29589955 29340009=20
29340072 29590130 30100103 30600069 31080033=20
31410010 31899969 32249924 32429888=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

AWUS01 KWNH 210612
FFGMPD
CAZ000-211210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1238
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...coastal southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210611Z - 211210Z

Summary...Highly localized flash flooding will be possible from
slow moving showers/thunderstorms capable of producing hourly
rainfall up to ~1 inch. This threat will exist along portions of
southern CA near the coast through at least 12Z.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor imagery at 06Z showed
a mid-level closed low centered over the central CA coast, slowly
moving south. Several smaller scale vorticity maxima were observed
within the cyclonic flow, with one of interest located over/near
Santa Cruz Island. Cooling cloud tops were noted east of the
vorticity center, northwest of a surface low within a mesoscale
deformation zone. The 1009 mb low was located about 30 miles west
of Santa Catalina at 06Z with an occluded/cold front extending
southward. A weak plume of low level moisture transport was
located ahead of the front, parallel to the southern CA coastline
where a few showers have recently picked up in intensity with
localized training along the Orange County coast.

Weak instability up to a couple hundred J/kg was located along the
southern CA coast from Santa Barbara to San Diego counties as
noted in recent ACARS/model soundings. As the mid-level low
continues to translate down the CA coast, the plume of low level
moisture ahead of the front will push inland along with the
initial round of stronger showers. Later in the night, some
steepening of mid-level lapse rates should increase instability up
to about 500 J/kg along the immediate coast and closer to 1000
J/kg offshore. The surface low is forecast to edge closer to the
Los Angeles/Orange County coasts through 12Z. With this movement,
another round of slow moving showers and thunderstorms is expected
to track toward the coast from the offshore waters, with potential
for highly localized hourly (or sub-hourly) rainfall between 0.5
and about 1 inch, due to slow movement.

These spotty higher rainfall rates could result in flash flooding
of urban areas or other sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5hy1OjoPIczj9JA_LYobi4X_8NO48jWfR8lBVWDPe-RK1XsCwgWROEbmiMan9UUefKhF= UopZquPsB1jFEV3OzPJESk4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34581936 34531776 33821649 32841623 32541631=20
32531634 32251753 32241756 32731790 33131881=20
33501962 34001978=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

AWUS01 KWNH 211245
FFGMPD
CAZ000-211830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1239
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...Southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211245Z - 211830Z

SUMMARY...Risk of slow moving, narrow updrafts capable of
.75"-1"/hr rates likely to continue to a few more hours. Isolated
1-2" totals in/near urban locations in SoCal suggest localized
flash flooding remains possible.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined closed low is parked directly over
southern California with an upstream highly anomalous
shortwave/vorticity center descending southward along the western
periphery of the low. This and favorable cyclonically curved
geography of the coast and mountain ranges will help to keep
surface to boundary layer cyclone relatively stationary for the
next few hours just along/south of Long Beach, CA. The cold front
and associated warm conveyor have pressed eastward into far NW
Baja California (state) of Mexico before angling through Imperial
Valley and lower Colorado River Valley. However, the western
branch of the TROWAL and occluded front remain banked up against
the Orange county and San Diego county beaches.=20

GOES-W WV suite shows the core of the upper-level jet remains
south near the San Diego country border with Mexico, allowing for
solid cyclonically curved left exit ascent across much of SoCal
providing solid ascent for updrafts that do develop with the solid
surface/low level moisture convergence. The limiting factor will
likely be unstable air/vertical ascent through convective
processes. MUCAPEs have dropped to around 500 J/kg but are now
mostly driven through cold advection aloft. The upstream
shortwave will dull this advection for a few hours but may allow
the lapse rates to maintain this weak 250-500 J/kg instability.=20=20
As such, updrafts are likely to remain isolated and generally
narrow, though with isallobaric response to the updraft, moisture
convergence should allow for the .75-.9" total PWats (loaded
mainly below 700mb) to support rates of .75-1"/hr.=20

As such, a localized 1-2" total still remains possible for the
next few hours. Naturally low FFG and/or urban hydrophobic
conditions will result in solid run-off and maintain a risk of
widely scattered incident or two of possible flash flooding
through the morning.=20=20

It is also possible (more likely toward 16-18z) that a few
showers/cells may try to develop with some weak clearing through
the Imperial Valley along the western branch of the TROWAL. These
cells would be also similarly slow moving but likely translating
NW rather than NE as with the coastal cells; but there is less
certainty with that evolution and a secondary MPD may be required
if trends continue to improve.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6defLsDhQO-ON-LqODLd4v4g66xlCixSbO2_VOxQBeCuFq2HkSlxnEp1Y3e9UPBfwxAh= InmHHKSqNelNU_uwQNCMueQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34551850 34481788 34071704 33471650 32801624=20
32581627 32531672 32561724 32981753 33301781=20
33581827 33971908 34331893=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

AWUS01 KWNH 211331
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-211930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1240
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
831 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...Inland Deserts of Southern California and Lower
Colorado River Valley...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211330Z - 211930Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rain with embedded very weak showers
capable of .3-.5"/hr rates. Scattered 1-1.5" totals pose longer
duration flash flooding concerns (3-6hr exceedance).

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows core of deep upper-low has
wobbled over the LA Basin, but a strong upstream shortwave along
the western periphery of the upper-level closed low is digging
sharply resulting an combined effect of tightening the overall
flow across the deep cyclone while keeping the downstream older
center stationary over the next 6-12hr. As a result, the core of
the Atmospheric River will remain focused on NW Baja California
before cyclonically turning (fairly sharply) through the Imperial
Valley into the Mojave Deserts back toward the Tehachapi Range and
southern San Joaquin Valley.=20

CIRA LPW prior to the local outage showed a fairly strong sfc to
850 and 850-700mb signal with 95th-99th percentile signals in each
layer, combine that with some increase in the surface to 850mb
layer from favorable southerly flow off the warm Sea of Cortez and
total PWats remain at or slightly above 1" into the Imperial
Valley and as high as .75" into the San Joaquin Valley. VWP and
RAP analysis suggest strong cyclonic curvature but also 20-30kts
of flux. So while there is sub-100 J/kg of instability, the
vertical ascent through the strengthening western branch of the
TROWAL suggests highly anomalous flux to maintain moderate showery
activity through the deserts. Rates of .33"/hr are more probable,
but an isolated rate of .5" is not impossible. Still, persistent
weakly banded features will result in tracks of 1-1.5" totals in a
3-6hr time period, so any isolated, enhanced vertical cell within
the core may result in quicker stream/arroyo rises. FFG values
being only .5"/hr and less than 1"/3hr and less than 1.5-2"/6hrs)
suggest a few scattered incidents of 'flash' flooding are
considered possible through early afternoon.

While less certainty, there are CAMs suggesting some filtered
insolation may be possible in the morning. Near zero inhibition
through the profiles, suggest embedded widely scattered convective
elements may evolve in the 16-19z time period, particularly closer
to the warmer heat source of the Sea of Cortez across the Lower
Colorado and southern Imperial Valley. Given the digging wave
upstream off the SW CA coast, upstream winds may be favorable for
some potential upstream redevelopment/back-building environment.=20
Will continue to monitor those trends for any additional MPD later
toward the afternoon.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_-WjtQ6vmZP70V-mcQSPBPEHSb5UPtn6MaaXF4h2x6fY00XJ7ZrT2AvFASaI-gjDsv3r= 8Ao-f3IcG6w7HoujVkdzYxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36451689 36001550 35231468 34241409 33061394=20
32331426 32491497 32691600 34241623 34841705=20
34971779 35591825 36151792=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

AWUS01 KWNH 222300
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230458-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222258Z - 230458Z

Summary...Convection continues to grow in coverage across portions
of central and southeast AZ. Hourly rain amounts up to 1" with
local amounts to 2" could lead to isolated to widely scattered
issues in arroyos/dry washes, burn scars, and box canyons.

Discussion...Infrared satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops
in association with showers and thunderstorms across central and
southeast AZ within a region of 700 hPa confluence ahead of a
progressive deep layer low, with some recent uptick in coverage.=20
A first pixels of 0.5" an hour amounts were indicated recently
from the Phoenix and Tucson AZ radars in association with their
rainfall. Pockets of 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE exist across
west-central and southeast AZ per SPC mesoanalyses, with
instability increasing due to cooling aloft and some degree of
daytime heating/sunshine, particularly across southeast AZ.=20
Effective bulk shear of 30-50 kts exists here, which is leading to
an environment with both organized and ordinary convective cells,
with the organized activity edging east of due north while the
less organized storms move just west of due north. Precipitable
water values of 0.5-1" lie here. The atmosphere is cool, with
1000-500 hPa thickness values of 5550-5600 meters. When combined
with the available moisture, the column is approaching saturation.

The mesoscale guidance implies increasing convective coverage and
an increasing incidence of 0.5"+ an hour amounts over the next
several hours, with the 12z REFS and 18z HREF guidance suggesting
the heaviest rainfall in the 01-05z time frame. This could be due
to cell training, occasional mesocyclone formation, or cell
mergers between more and less organized convective activity. As
the upper level system continues marching northeast, winds should
veer somewhat which should allow convection to shift somewhat to
the east with time, with activity shifting increasingly into
mountainous areas. With hourly amounts to 1" and local totals to
2" possible, the incidence of impactful heavy rain is expected to
be isolated to widely scattered, mainly within arroyos/dry washes,
box canyons, and any area burn scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_11Dt4vgOR_QWohFX9tvKqdE6LGVpOCutmRvWnF-mQw0JNZV4L9ax5MtPUIq6Oi9tax_= f7aVUm8MLuTaLbjJuyltsFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20
32061186 34001212=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

AWUS01 KWNH 222307
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230459-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
607 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222259Z - 230459Z

SUMMARY...Repeating and brief training of cells could result in
localized flash flooding across far eastern KY into WV and far
southern OH over the next few hours. Additional rainfall of 1-2
inches will be possible through 01Z, falling atop 1-2 inches of
rain which fell over the past 12 hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and cooling cloud tops on GOES
East infrared imagery has shown an increase in rainfall intensity
across eastern KY over the past 2 hours, attributed to increasing
instability. Mostly clear skies located south of an outflow
boundary (located from south of SME, east-northeastward into
south-central WV between CRW and BKW) have allowed MLCAPE to
increase into the 500 to 1000+ J/kg range over southeastern KY as
roughly 30 kt of southwesterly 850 mb flow overruns the boundary.
Average cell motions have been fast with ~40 kt from the WSW,
limiting rainfall over any given location, but that rainfall has
been intense with 0.3 to 0.5 inches in 15 minutes observed.

A flash flood concern may expand eastward into WV through the
early evening as instability increases into the southern half of
WV, through the continued advection of low level moisture and at
least brief additional heating under clearing skies in southern
WV. Some backing of low level flow is forecast by the RAP and as
moist/unstable air continues to overrun the rain-cooled boundary,
additional storms are expected to form upstream in KY and advance
downstream into WV. There will likely be some repeating cells and
perhaps some brief training although uncertainty remains on the
degree of training into the evening. Given 1 to 2 inches of rain
which impacted western and central WV over the past 12 hours, an
inch or two of additional rainfall through 01Z may result in some
localized flash flooding atop sensitive grounds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7t0SwD1cDQnVIZMQFVCK0VNmTmtrm9FjFvl4QTMcv2akeLdM5pIq9MnzgXiYy9DDoUdR= 8TJcSa0aciWXjO4Mxbq4g9k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20
32061186 34001212=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

AWUS01 KWNH 222310
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230458-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
609 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222258Z - 230458Z

Summary...Convection continues to grow in coverage across portions
of central and southeast AZ. Hourly rain amounts up to 1" with
local amounts to 2" could lead to isolated to widely scattered
issues in arroyos/dry washes, burn scars, and box canyons.

Discussion...Infrared satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops
in association with showers and thunderstorms across central and
southeast AZ within a region of 700 hPa confluence ahead of a
progressive deep layer low, with some recent uptick in coverage.=20
A first pixels of 0.5" an hour amounts were indicated recently
from the Phoenix and Tucson AZ radars in association with their
rainfall. Pockets of 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE exist across
west-central and southeast AZ per SPC mesoanalyses, with
instability increasing due to cooling aloft and some degree of
daytime heating/sunshine, particularly across southeast AZ.=20
Effective bulk shear of 30-50 kts exists here, which is leading to
an environment with both organized and ordinary convective cells,
with the organized activity edging east of due north while the
less organized storms move just west of due north. Precipitable
water values of 0.5-1" lie here. The atmosphere is cool, with
1000-500 hPa thickness values of 5550-5600 meters. When combined
with the available moisture, the column is approaching saturation.

The mesoscale guidance implies increasing convective coverage and
an increasing incidence of 0.5"+ an hour amounts over the next
several hours, with the 12z REFS and 18z HREF guidance suggesting
the heaviest rainfall in the 01-05z time frame. This could be due
to cell training, occasional mesocyclone formation, or cell
mergers between more and less organized convective activity. As
the upper level system continues marching northeast, winds should
veer somewhat which should allow convection to shift somewhat to
the east with time, with activity shifting increasingly into
mountainous areas. With hourly amounts to 1" and local totals to
2" possible, the incidence of impactful heavy rain is expected to
be isolated to widely scattered, mainly within arroyos/dry washes,
box canyons, and any area burn scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-poSCiJYQEyoV4jMimyWuK08ybzHQY_GIPWcJWA0X1V9T6lRFwK8MhpkVkd7jpd8AvnV= Ow4HdefNJCTkabCRLzKUVSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20
32061186 34001212=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)