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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0012

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jan 9 13:09:10 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 091309
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091308=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-091515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0012
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0708 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

    Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana through portions
    of southern and central Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 091308Z - 091515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Potential for an additional brief tornado and/or locally
    damaging wind gusts is generally not expected to continue in the
    near term. However, trends will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of intensifying near-surface cyclonic
    circulations have been recently observed within scattered ongoing
    thunderstorm development. This appears to have coincided with
    subtle surface warming and moistening sufficient to contribute to
    weak boundary-layer based instability, based on forecast soundings
    and the 12Z sounding from Jackson. But, this also appears to be
    occurring as low-level hodographs shrink and trend more linear, in
    the wake of the initial short wave trough now accelerating northeast
    of the middle Mississippi Valley. As a result, potential for
    further similar mesovortex intensification accompanied by the risk
    for a brief tornado and/or damaging wind gusts seems likely to
    diminish shortly, if it hasn't already.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 01/09/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5QmdUi6lSkMqDv1a58XCOg6FYDfonnSrU9bheXo0SnRTloydzt_k6kcWDGJOGPcYnk89pAiUL= tgyMzMwJCpfQi-jzDA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 33758928 33858826 32448857 30968940 30549056 30959106
    31689024 32588979 33758928=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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