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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2288

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 31 23:43:43 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 312343
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312342=20
    PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-010415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2288
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0542 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northern Ohio...northwestern
    Pennsylvania and southwestern New York

    Concerning...Snow Squall=20

    Valid 312342Z - 010415Z

    SUMMARY...A snow squall may develop in the next couple of hours, and
    progress across portions of the Ohio Valley into the northern
    Appalachians through evening. A sudden onset of moderate to heavy
    snow and 15-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with
    higher gusts) will create hazardous driving conditions, including
    reduced visibility.

    DISCUSSION...A pronounced, strongly positively tilted mid-level
    trough is amplifying across the Great Lakes and is progressing
    toward the Northeast. A 100-130 kt 500-300 mb jet streak is pivoting
    around the upper trough and is poised to overspread the northern
    Appalachians over the next few hours. The approach of this jet
    streak will dynamically enhance low-level lift along a
    southeastward-moving surface cold front that is currently draped
    over southern ON to Lower MI/southern WI. This aforementioned lift
    will force a low-topped snow band along the surface cold front, amid
    a sub-freezing troposphere in the next 1-3 hours.

    While the synoptic pattern is generally favorable for snow squalls,
    steep low-level lapse rates and accompanying instability is
    currently lacking ahead of the cold front. Nonetheless, strong
    925-700 mb CAA accompanying the mid/upper-level jet streak will aid
    in the steepening of low-level lapse rates behind the cold frontal
    snow band, which may result in just enough destabilization (albeit
    very scant) to support a leading-line low-level circulation. Should
    a snow squall develop, a sudden onset of stronger northwesterly flow
    (at least 15-30 mph, with higher gusts) may accompany portions of
    the leading line, along with moderate to potentially heavy snowfall
    rates. Brief periods of appreciably reduced visibility may occur in
    stronger portions of the snow band.

    ..Squitieri.. 12/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bNtA-lNc8jrpvUrowwflC-_gTMpp80EY6E-nM7nPeErXzte_GcQdkOyZtNM7MME8wc7cGdt3= _R_XwsOjikew9d2oYs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...

    LAT...LON 40438239 40738327 41168395 41448417 41628418 41798404
    41738328 41618266 41558193 42028082 42747908 43207814
    43187765 42837733 41927754 41017820 40577917 40428019
    40358130 40438239=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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