ACUS11 KWNS 290932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290932=20
MIZ000-291530-

Mesoscale Discussion 2286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Areas affected...Parts of Upper Michigan and far northern Lower
Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 290932Z - 291530Z

SUMMARY...Banded heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour and
periods of blizzard conditions are expected through the morning
hours.

DISCUSSION...To the west/northwest of a very deep low pressure
system (983 mb surface low over Lake Huron), substantial deep-layer
lift is overspreading a cold, deeply saturated profile over Upper MI
and vicinity. The combination of this lift through a deep/saturated
DGZ and isothermal layer below will promote efficient crystal growth
and aggregation. As as result, widespread and prolonged heavy
snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour are expected, with even
higher rates to around 2 inches per hour over the higher terrain and
beneath the core of more organized banding. In addition to these
substantial and prolonged rates, a very tight pressure gradient
peripheral to the deep surface low and strong low-level jet
(50-60-kt flow in the lowest 1 km AGL per MQT VWP) will promote
40-50 mph gusts and intermittent blizzard conditions in conjunction
with the heavy snowfall rates.

..Weinman.. 12/29/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5AHioYy2AuBNDyWVpzckpxvi6ca9-1DJrIUsRCuHm0XyNLZ2GuL4Lp_VGRd1RXok--7jlKZft= e40yyY1twZgGQ2tNfU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

LAT...LON 45458526 45558610 45788701 46168815 46508849 46718842
46828799 46578760 46408716 46428653 46618622 46738507
46538424 46158371 45818366 45538398 45398451 45458526=20


=3D =3D =3D
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