ACUS48 KWNS 200910
SWOD48
SPC AC 200909

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Sun-Tue -- Southern Plains to the TN Valley...

An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest/northern Mexico
will eject east into the Plains by early Day 5/Monday. Gulf
moisture will spread northward across portions of TX into the Lower
MS Valley through early Tuesday. This moisture return will occur
ahead of the ejecting trough/increasing deep-layer southwesterly
flow, and a cold front sweeping across the region. Warm advection
will support thunderstorm development by late Sunday as the upper
trough and cold front begin to march across TX, and some hail risk
could accompany this activity. However, storm mode could preclude a
greater risk, and storm coverage/intensity is uncertain given
overnight timing.

As this system continues east across the ArkLaTex into the Lower MS
Valley on Monday, some severe potential could persist into these
areas. However, uncertainty regarding moisture return and degree of destabilization due to potentially ongoing and widespread training precipitation precludes severe probabilities at this time. Some risk
could continue across parts of the TN Valley/Southeast into Tuesday.
However, the upper trough is expected to be weakening and lifting
well north of the region by this time.

...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu...

The surface front will move offshore on Day 7/Wed and strong surface
high pressure will build across much of the CONUS. This will result
in dry and colder conditions, leading to a stable airmass. Severe
potential appears low mid to late in the week.

..Leitman.. 11/20/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 210952
SWOD48
SPC AC 210951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
As a mid-level trough deamplifies and moves from the central Plains
to the Midwest on D4/Monday, low-level moisture will advect
northward across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas.
Some filtered heating should result in moderate instability by early
afternoon with moderate to strong shear. Morning thunderstorms will
likely have a stabilizing effect on the northern extent, but south
of this activity, a relatively more favorable zone for supercells
may exist on Monday afternoon. Relatively weak lapse rates are the
primary limiting factor to severe weather probabilities at this
time.

On D5/Tuesday, the surface front will stall across Louisiana and
Mississippi with weak to moderate instability to its south. Forcing
will remain somewhat nebulous, but given persistent moderate shear,
a few stronger storms will be possible from eastern Louisiana to
northern Alabama.

D6/Wednesday and beyond will feature a strong area of high pressure
across much of the eastern CONUS. This will push 60F dewpoints into
the Gulf/Atlantic and bring an end to any severe weather threat and
potentially any thunderstorm threat east of the Rockies for the
remainder of the week.

..Bentley.. 11/21/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 220856
SWOD48
SPC AC 220854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tue - Southeast...
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a
surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening
surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it
advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected
across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will
strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for
storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail
may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely
exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but
probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this
time.

...Day 5/Wed - East Coast...
As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints
will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front.
Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas
and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind
field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.

High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern
CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather
potential.

Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which
could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across
portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 230959
SWOD48
SPC AC 230958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period
D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a
few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the
front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry
air and high pressure will build across much of the central and
eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm
activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.

By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains
and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large
trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into
early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this
trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely
return at some point given the approaching trough and inland
moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe
weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

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